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Matt Betts, Tana Ellis Forest Ecosystems and Society, OSU Collaborators: Joan Hagar, Brenda McComb, Kevin McGarigal, Jim R...
 
Area decrease = ~40% Mean patch size decrease = ~35% Kennedy and Spies 2005 Biol. Cons. (1939)
Historical and future ES <ul><li>Paleo- &dendroecological studies + simulation modelging </li></ul><ul><li>‘ Very open’ + ...
 
 
<ul><li>“ Structurally and compositionally diverse early seral forest habitats are now the scarcest habitat in the region”...
Orange-crowned warbler Rufous hummingbird
<ul><li>“ Structurally and compositionally diverse early seral forest habitats are now the scarcest habitat in the region”...
Stand Structure ~
~
<ul><li>Which songbird species are associated with early seral broadleaf forest?  </li></ul><ul><li>Is the occurrence of t...
Habitat variable ‘x’(Stand or landscape scale) Betts and Villard 2009 – Cons. Targets. Betts et al. 2007 – Cons. Biol. Pop...
 
<ul><li>Authors of 14 studies contacted </li></ul><ul><li>Klamath Bird Observatory (southern OR) </li></ul><ul><li>McGarig...
4375 sample points 127,164 bird detections  110 species
Gradient Nearest Neighbor (GNN) method for predictive vegetation mapping Regional forest survey + Remote sensing data + Im...
Coastal Oregon Oregon Attribute table (joined to ArcGIS grid) Each pixel, or ArcGIS grid cell
 
<ul><li>% Broadleaf </li></ul><ul><li>% Early seral broadleaf (<10 cm dbh) </li></ul><ul><li>Spatial extents: 150, 500, 20...
2 km 0.5 km
p  = exp (β0  +  β1 x  + β2( x –  ψ)+)  /  1 + exp   (β0  +  β1 x  + β2( x –  ψ)+)  Segmented logistic regression: Muggeo ...
 
<ul><li>11/ 27 models showed threshold response </li></ul>Pacific-slope flycatcher Ranged broadly from 1.35 – 24.5%cc Bett...
<ul><li>Positive response to early-seral broadleaf by 8/12 species </li></ul>Coast Range Klamath LARGE REGIONAL VARIATION ...
GNN Species distribution performance:  Mean AUC = 0.83 ± 0.002 s.e.  Best spatial scale = 2000 m
 
Betts et al. Ecol. Apps.  In Press
<ul><li>Positive influence of early and late seral broadleaf forest on many species </li></ul><ul><li>Population consequen...
Stand Structure ~
Tana Ellis and Matt Betts Oregon State University Forest Ecosystems  & Society
<ul><li>Does   amount of hardwood cover  within a stand  influence </li></ul><ul><ul><li>occurrence of songbirds? </li></u...
<ul><li>28 Douglas-fir plantations of the  </li></ul><ul><li>central Oregon Coast Range </li></ul><ul><li>Aged 5 to 9 year...
 
<ul><li>6,013 total net captures </li></ul><ul><li>Banded 4,639  </li></ul><ul><li>Recaptured 837 </li></ul><ul><li>53 spe...
<ul><li>White-crowned Sparrow  n= 375 </li></ul><ul><li>Swainson’s Thrush n= 375 </li></ul><ul><li>Orange-crowned Warbler ...
<ul><li>Need to take into account number of individuals (using rarefaction) </li></ul>
 
Full model  R 2  = 0.45 Foliage gleaners= 12.8%  (SE=3.5)  Model Wi AIC Δ  AIC THRESHOLD SE Segmented 0.98 2.19 0.00 6.456...
Adult orange-crowned warbler HY (juvenile) orange-crowned warbler
β SE t P (Intercept) -2.09 0.06 -35.44 0.000 Log(Hardwood) 0.08 0.03 2.84 0.009 β SE t P (Intercept) -2.017 0.077 -26.143 ...
Migrant Bird Demography Nest success Juvenile survival Migratory survival Adult survival Overwinter survival Faaborg et al...
<ul><li>Does nest success = ‘habitat quality’? </li></ul><ul><li>Do conditions at the nest influence subsequent juvenile s...
 
 
 
SWTH nest
 
SWTH nest
Fledgling SWTH with transmitter
 
What happened to fledgling #150.781?
<ul><li>22 juveniles tagged, 36% survived </li></ul><ul><li>68% of mortality occurred within first 8 days </li></ul><ul><l...
Summary <ul><li>Bird distributions at stand and landscape scales are influenced by abundance of early seral forest </li></...
<ul><li>Manipulative study (funded by USDA) </li></ul><ul><li>‘ Top-down’ effects of birds on insect control </li></ul><ul...
THANKS!
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Thresholds In Songbirds In Relation To Early Seral Forest At Stand And Landscape Scales

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Thresholds In Songbirds In Relation To Early Seral Forest At Stand And Landscape Scales

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Thresholds In Songbirds In Relation To Early Seral Forest At Stand And Landscape Scales

  1. 1. Matt Betts, Tana Ellis Forest Ecosystems and Society, OSU Collaborators: Joan Hagar, Brenda McComb, Kevin McGarigal, Jim Rivers Thresholds in songbirds in relation to early seral forest at stand and landscape scales
  2. 3. Area decrease = ~40% Mean patch size decrease = ~35% Kennedy and Spies 2005 Biol. Cons. (1939)
  3. 4. Historical and future ES <ul><li>Paleo- &dendroecological studies + simulation modelging </li></ul><ul><li>‘ Very open’ + ‘Patchy open’ = ~6% of historical landscape (Nokala & Spies 2005, Ecol. Apps .) </li></ul><ul><li>‘ Early seral’ (<30 years) = 30% ~historical (Wimberly et al. 2000 Cons. Biol .) </li></ul><ul><li>‘ Diverse early succession’ projected decline by 100% from HRV (Spies et al. 2007 Ecol. Apps.) </li></ul>
  4. 7. <ul><li>“ Structurally and compositionally diverse early seral forest habitats are now the scarcest habitat in the region” (Thomas et al. 2006 – Cons. Biol.) </li></ul>
  5. 8. Orange-crowned warbler Rufous hummingbird
  6. 9. <ul><li>“ Structurally and compositionally diverse early seral forest habitats are now the scarcest habitat in the region” (Thomas et al. 2006 – Cons. Biol.) </li></ul>
  7. 10. Stand Structure ~
  8. 11. ~
  9. 12. <ul><li>Which songbird species are associated with early seral broadleaf forest? </li></ul><ul><li>Is the occurrence of these bird species influenced by landscape composition? </li></ul><ul><li>Are there threshold levels of broadleaf in stands/landscapes? </li></ul><ul><li>Is habitat change ‘driving’ pop. declines? </li></ul>
  10. 13. Habitat variable ‘x’(Stand or landscape scale) Betts and Villard 2009 – Cons. Targets. Betts et al. 2007 – Cons. Biol. Population size/ occurrence/ density
  11. 15. <ul><li>Authors of 14 studies contacted </li></ul><ul><li>Klamath Bird Observatory (southern OR) </li></ul><ul><li>McGarigal & McComb (Coast range) </li></ul><ul><li>Hagar et al. (Coast range) </li></ul><ul><li>Fontaine (Biscuit fire) </li></ul>Total N (after removing sites due to missing data) = 4375
  12. 16. 4375 sample points 127,164 bird detections 110 species
  13. 17. Gradient Nearest Neighbor (GNN) method for predictive vegetation mapping Regional forest survey + Remote sensing data + Imputation = spatial data
  14. 18. Coastal Oregon Oregon Attribute table (joined to ArcGIS grid) Each pixel, or ArcGIS grid cell
  15. 20. <ul><li>% Broadleaf </li></ul><ul><li>% Early seral broadleaf (<10 cm dbh) </li></ul><ul><li>Spatial extents: 150, 500, 2000 m </li></ul>
  16. 21. 2 km 0.5 km
  17. 22. p = exp (β0 + β1 x + β2( x – ψ)+) / 1 + exp (β0 + β1 x + β2( x – ψ)+) Segmented logistic regression: Muggeo (2003) Statistics in Medicine Threshold Detection
  18. 24. <ul><li>11/ 27 models showed threshold response </li></ul>Pacific-slope flycatcher Ranged broadly from 1.35 – 24.5%cc Betts et al. Ecol. Apps. In Press
  19. 25. <ul><li>Positive response to early-seral broadleaf by 8/12 species </li></ul>Coast Range Klamath LARGE REGIONAL VARIATION IN THRESHOLDS
  20. 26. GNN Species distribution performance: Mean AUC = 0.83 ± 0.002 s.e. Best spatial scale = 2000 m
  21. 28. Betts et al. Ecol. Apps. In Press
  22. 29. <ul><li>Positive influence of early and late seral broadleaf forest on many species </li></ul><ul><li>Population consequences may have already occurred </li></ul><ul><li>High variation in thresholds among species and regions </li></ul><ul><li>More research needed at stand and landscape scales (manipulations) </li></ul>
  23. 30. Stand Structure ~
  24. 31. Tana Ellis and Matt Betts Oregon State University Forest Ecosystems & Society
  25. 32. <ul><li>Does amount of hardwood cover within a stand influence </li></ul><ul><ul><li>occurrence of songbirds? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>productivity of songbirds? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Are there threshold levels of hardwood within a stand? </li></ul>
  26. 33. <ul><li>28 Douglas-fir plantations of the </li></ul><ul><li>central Oregon Coast Range </li></ul><ul><li>Aged 5 to 9 years old </li></ul><ul><li>Hardwood cover </li></ul><ul><li>gradient 0-35% </li></ul>
  27. 35. <ul><li>6,013 total net captures </li></ul><ul><li>Banded 4,639 </li></ul><ul><li>Recaptured 837 </li></ul><ul><li>53 species </li></ul>
  28. 36. <ul><li>White-crowned Sparrow n= 375 </li></ul><ul><li>Swainson’s Thrush n= 375 </li></ul><ul><li>Orange-crowned Warbler n= 370 </li></ul><ul><li>MacGillivray’s Warbler n= 362 </li></ul><ul><li>Willow Flycatcher n= 268 </li></ul>
  29. 37. <ul><li>Need to take into account number of individuals (using rarefaction) </li></ul>
  30. 39. Full model R 2 = 0.45 Foliage gleaners= 12.8% (SE=3.5) Model Wi AIC Δ AIC THRESHOLD SE Segmented 0.98 2.19 0.00 6.456 1.709 Linear 0.02 10.18 8.00 - - Hardwood threshold at 6.7 % (SE=1.6)
  31. 40. Adult orange-crowned warbler HY (juvenile) orange-crowned warbler
  32. 41. β SE t P (Intercept) -2.09 0.06 -35.44 0.000 Log(Hardwood) 0.08 0.03 2.84 0.009 β SE t P (Intercept) -2.017 0.077 -26.143 0.000 logHWD 0.058 0.037 1.586 0.125 AGE-HY -0.139 0.097 -1.429 0.165 logHWD:AGEHY 0.043 0.046 0.926 0.363
  33. 42. Migrant Bird Demography Nest success Juvenile survival Migratory survival Adult survival Overwinter survival Faaborg et al 2010 Ecol. Monogr.
  34. 43. <ul><li>Does nest success = ‘habitat quality’? </li></ul><ul><li>Do conditions at the nest influence subsequent juvenile survival? </li></ul>Nest success Juvenile survival
  35. 47. SWTH nest
  36. 49. SWTH nest
  37. 50. Fledgling SWTH with transmitter
  38. 52. What happened to fledgling #150.781?
  39. 53. <ul><li>22 juveniles tagged, 36% survived </li></ul><ul><li>68% of mortality occurred within first 8 days </li></ul><ul><li>Best predictors: </li></ul><ul><li>1. Hardwood during post-fledging period (HR: 0.88 [95% CI: 0.76-1.00) </li></ul><ul><li>2. Corticosterone in the nest (HR: 0.86 [95% CI: 0.71-1.04]) </li></ul>
  40. 54. Summary <ul><li>Bird distributions at stand and landscape scales are influenced by abundance of early seral forest </li></ul><ul><li>Demographic effects are apparent </li></ul><ul><li>This might be partly due to post-fledging survival on the breeding grounds </li></ul>
  41. 55. <ul><li>Manipulative study (funded by USDA) </li></ul><ul><li>‘ Top-down’ effects of birds on insect control </li></ul><ul><li>More extensive tests of thresholds </li></ul>
  42. 56. THANKS!

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