2010:Recovery from the Global Crisis: Implications for SADC and Development Finance

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Recovery from the Global Crisis: Implications for SADC and Development Finance Keith Jefferis May 2010

Remember early 2009 …. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Global growth slowdown ... and recovery ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Emerging markets leading the recovery ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

South Africa lagging other EMs, but recovering ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Signs of recovery ... minerals prices ,[object Object],[object Object]

Economic Developments in Sub-Saharan Africa

SSA Economic Outturn ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: IMF REO SSA April 2010

Why such a modest economic impact on SSA? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Finance & Capital Markets ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

But of course there are problems… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Inflation: much reduced, not a major concern, allows monetary policy easing Source: IMF REO for SSA (April 2010) 46%

Real GDP growth – recession mostly avoided in 2009, strong recovery projected for 2010 Source: IMF Regional Economic Outlook, April 2010

Fiscal balance: some large deficits, esp. in SACU, but generally manageable

Current account: some large deficits, and dependence on capital inflows Source: IMF Regional Economic Outlook, April 2010

Reserves: some declines, but still comfortable in most countries Source: IMF Regional Economic Outlook, April 2010

Outlook & risks – world economy ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Outlook & risks …. SADC ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Implications for DFIs ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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2010:Recovery from the Global Crisis: Implications for SADC and Development Finance

1. Recovery from the Global Crisis: Implications for SADC and Development Finance Keith Jefferis May 2010

7. … and oil prices

8. Economic Developments in Sub-Saharan Africa

10.

11.

12.

13. Economic Outlook - SADC

14. Inflation: much reduced, not a major concern, allows monetary policy easing Source: IMF REO for SSA (April 2010) 46%

15. Real GDP growth – recession mostly avoided in 2009, strong recovery projected for 2010 Source: IMF Regional Economic Outlook, April 2010

16. Fiscal balance: some large deficits, esp. in SACU, but generally manageable

17. Current account: some large deficits, and dependence on capital inflows Source: IMF Regional Economic Outlook, April 2010

18. Reserves: some declines, but still comfortable in most countries Source: IMF Regional Economic Outlook, April 2010

19.

20.

21.

22. Thank You

2010:Recovery from the Global Crisis: Implications for SADC and Development Finance

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