Economist Intelligence Unit Global Outlook nov 2 2010_Boston
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On November 2, 2010, EIU Senior Economist Leila Butt, presented the Economist Intelligence Unit Global Outlook in Boston. Key points in this presentation include: - Most economies are growing again - Emerging markets are booming - Unemployment remains very high - Consumers are rebuilding balance sheets - Countries are heavily indebted - Deflation is a risk in rich countries - Asset bubbles are a risk in emerging markets
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Economist Intelligence Unit Global Outlook nov 2 2010_Boston
- 1. Hope, headwinds or hurricanes? Charting a course for the global economy Leila Butt Senior Economist, Eastern Europe November 2010
- 5. Where are we now?
- 6. Global: World trade recovers strongly World trade volumes. 2000=100. Seasonally adjusted. Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
- 7. Stock prices are higher, but volatile… US$m. Source: Bloomberg Stockmarket capitalisation
- 8. … and borrowing costs are mostly contained 3-month US$ LIBOR minus 3-month US Treasuries Source: Haver Spread between the cost of government borrowing and private-sector borrowing, basis points Post-Lehman Bros panic Stimulus plans feed through Greece, EU debt crisis Fed intervenes; QE
- 10. Global outlook: Upswing, but uneven GDP growth, % year on year Source: EIU estimates Developed Emerging World Credit crunch starts
- 11. US and Europe
- 12. This is already a jobless recovery Sources: Bureau of Labour Statistics; EIU. US: % of jobs relative to peak employment
- 13. The great deleveraging continues in the US… Sources: BEA; EIU . US personal savings rate, % of disposable income.
- 14. US: Housing still very weak… US housing starts, ‘000s, SAAR. Source: Bureau of the Census Spot the recovery!
- 17. Euro zone: Solvency stresses will continue 211% of GDP 192% 234% 92% 150% 111% 112% 110% Bank claims on private sector, € bn. (UK bank lending at 213% of GDP in 2009, £3trn.) Sources: IMF, International Financial Statistics; EIU, CountryData .
- 19. Emerging markets
- 20. Asia: Powering ahead Real GDP, % change on year earlier, Haver
- 25. What does all this mean?
- 27. Where’s the growth? Real GDP growth; % change, year on year. ASEAN = Association of South East Asian Nations. CIS = Russia, Ukraine etc. As of October 2010. Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, CountryData.
Notas do Editor
- A jobless recovery— after each recession the bounceback takes longer Never really recovered from 2001 tech-wreck. Barely noticed it in growth terms, but jobs market flatlined Great sucking sound from globalisation—who really benefits? This period also includes the great debt binge and stagnant wages—lower income Americans buttressing flagging income with debt This crisis is partly one of globalisation—US needs to create far more mobile, high-tech workforce; more jobs will be sucked out Labour force never really recovered after 2001 recession—although in growth terms we barely noticed it Unemployed workers will be shut out of labour market. Skills levels erode very quickly We reckon that unemployment will remain elevated at around 9% this year and next—could be hovering around 8% for years For youngsters particularly grim Yale study showed that for every 1ppt increase in unemployment the starting salary of a new graduate falls by up to 7%--this gap is never closed with graduates who joined in better economic weather Japan’s example grim. 6 out of every 10 cases of depression, stress and work-related mental disabilities are found in those in their 30s, the generation that graduated in the 1990s
- Savings rate was revised up in the latest data revision Better reflects what we think is going on—we assume around 5-6% going forward—similar to where it was in the 1980s and 1990s 1988 there were 8,000 pawn shops, now there are 15,000 serving 30m customers
- Adjusting Existing and new home unsold supply—7-8 months; better than peak of 10-11, but needs to come down to around 3-4 Good news for US— productivity rising sharply Labour force adjustment brutal—employment, 138m workers, back to roughly 2002 levels Cf Germany, 40m now, barely lower than in 2008—labour hoarding Italy, 23m, down to 2007 levels Frugality is a coping mechanism—consumer spending not going to be defined by doing without But consumers will be aware of the consequences of their consumption
- Downgrade to Ireland Greece will probably be defaulting in 2012 Low growth, deflationary pressures Germany doing well, but Q2 will be a peak—exports account for 40% of economy, country highly geared to global growth Longer term face significant demographic challenges Funding gap Contingent liabilities hitting Ireland—not public finances so much (BBB rated by us—AA minus by S+P