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Antti Roose University of Tartu, Estonia SETTING INDICATORS  FOR URBANIZATION:  A CASE STUDY OF ESTONIA   Ecocity World Summit 2008, San Francisco, CA
Suburbs for the masses arrived in 21. Century   “G odzilla  attacked new settlement”   I nitiated by individual choices ,  how these decisions sum up over time and space to create sprawl .
Reductionism: disliking extra floor
Aims of the presentation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Suburbanization in CEE ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Sprawl in CEE ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Keys for urban development  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Methods  F ine-tuning and upgrading of the EU Urban Audit to enable an assessment of the state of dynamic, transitional cities, in particular tracking suburbanization processes, and to provide information for spatial planning.  A comparison of the indicator scores will allow cities and suburban municipalities to judge their progress  in  urban qualities as a result of fast suburbanization.   A  few clear-cut time-series were selected to represent actual urban processes. Information compounded data from the historic core city and surrounding municipalities to demonstrate disparities of development.
1. Demography 1.1. Total resident population 1.2. Demographic dependency:  2. Social Aspects 2.1. Total number of households 2.2. Average size of households 2.3. Number of dwellings 2.4. Number of houses/apartments 2.5. Average area of living accommodation  2.6. Average price for an apartment  2.7. Number of recorded crimes per 1,000 pop 3. Economic Aspects 3.1. Unemployment rate 3.2. Median disposable annual household income 3.3. Proportion of individuals reliant on social security 4. Civic Aspects 4.1. Proportion of registered electorate voting in city elections 5. Environmental and Land Use Aspects 5.1. Proportion of the area used for agricultural purposes 5.2. Proportion of the area in housing/residential use 5.3. Issued master plans 5.4. Percentage of dwellings connected to sewerage treatment system 5.5. Ecological footprint of residents 6. Travel and Transport 6.1. Net residential density – population per land area in housing 6.2. Number of registered cars  6.3. Length of public transport network per capita 6.4. Percentage of journeys to work by car  6.5. Percentage of journeys to work by bus
Engines  for suburbanization   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Land reform 2  Unlimited availability of undeveloped land
Timeline of post-socialist suburbanization  in Estonia   Q uality  C ontrol ; Issuing general plans Infill in the city; growing share of semi-detached and terraced houses Suburbanization slowing down  2007–present Massive issuing master plans;  delay master plan; g reen networks Mid-size settlements in fringe; peak of detached houses; apartment houses in the core city  Peak of suburbanization / patchy urban sprawl 2003–2006 No or few master plans; comprehensive city planning  Small settlements in fringe ; ‘landmarks’ in the city Slow suburbanization 1998–2002 No master plans; shortage of  planning  know-how; few districts in the city Vacant plots in the core city; single plots at the fringe; individual  develop. Slow urbanization 1992–1997 Planning practice Key areas of development Urbanization process Period
Winner take all
Land price in the Tartu city and fringe in 2006
Car-houses
Landscrapers (2002)
Neighborhood near Tartu (2006)
Suburban pattern (2006)
Issued construction permits for the  detached  and apartment houses
Cul-de-sac Elite neigborhoods
Where is the nearest school,  kindergardens, shop, pub?
Garden city ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
N ew suburban settlements
Population change  i n  the  fringe
Population growth forecast  in the fringe
Annual growth of average monthly gross salaries  in the fringe
Traffic frequency at the Tartu city perimeter: growth   5% 2005/2006 Stratum, 2006 City center Perimeter In Out
Traffic frequency in 2007
Highway landscape Separation of l ight traffic and pavements. Features of highways destroy city environment and scare pedestrians
Ecological footprint of  the Tartu suburbanites 76% 0.90 5000 kWh Household energy 9% 0.11 200 m 2 Construction 15% 0.18 20 km Transport  gha/ cap / y Unit
Devolution in urban planning system conservative  /   ad ho c ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Suburb as battlefield? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
How to suburbanize? *  Network-city: neighborhood, surrounding similarly important, spatial unity * County service centers  * Center-periphery * Structural diversity
How to suburbanize? *  The indicators’ approach as an efficient analytical tool for planning support systems.  * T o control urban expansion so that urban areas can develop in a more sustainable manner.  * T he planning quality using participatory means

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Roose 7544

  • 1. Antti Roose University of Tartu, Estonia SETTING INDICATORS FOR URBANIZATION: A CASE STUDY OF ESTONIA Ecocity World Summit 2008, San Francisco, CA
  • 2. Suburbs for the masses arrived in 21. Century “G odzilla attacked new settlement” I nitiated by individual choices , how these decisions sum up over time and space to create sprawl .
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8. Methods F ine-tuning and upgrading of the EU Urban Audit to enable an assessment of the state of dynamic, transitional cities, in particular tracking suburbanization processes, and to provide information for spatial planning. A comparison of the indicator scores will allow cities and suburban municipalities to judge their progress in urban qualities as a result of fast suburbanization. A few clear-cut time-series were selected to represent actual urban processes. Information compounded data from the historic core city and surrounding municipalities to demonstrate disparities of development.
  • 9. 1. Demography 1.1. Total resident population 1.2. Demographic dependency: 2. Social Aspects 2.1. Total number of households 2.2. Average size of households 2.3. Number of dwellings 2.4. Number of houses/apartments 2.5. Average area of living accommodation 2.6. Average price for an apartment 2.7. Number of recorded crimes per 1,000 pop 3. Economic Aspects 3.1. Unemployment rate 3.2. Median disposable annual household income 3.3. Proportion of individuals reliant on social security 4. Civic Aspects 4.1. Proportion of registered electorate voting in city elections 5. Environmental and Land Use Aspects 5.1. Proportion of the area used for agricultural purposes 5.2. Proportion of the area in housing/residential use 5.3. Issued master plans 5.4. Percentage of dwellings connected to sewerage treatment system 5.5. Ecological footprint of residents 6. Travel and Transport 6.1. Net residential density – population per land area in housing 6.2. Number of registered cars 6.3. Length of public transport network per capita 6.4. Percentage of journeys to work by car 6.5. Percentage of journeys to work by bus
  • 10.
  • 11. Land reform 2 Unlimited availability of undeveloped land
  • 12. Timeline of post-socialist suburbanization in Estonia Q uality C ontrol ; Issuing general plans Infill in the city; growing share of semi-detached and terraced houses Suburbanization slowing down 2007–present Massive issuing master plans; delay master plan; g reen networks Mid-size settlements in fringe; peak of detached houses; apartment houses in the core city Peak of suburbanization / patchy urban sprawl 2003–2006 No or few master plans; comprehensive city planning Small settlements in fringe ; ‘landmarks’ in the city Slow suburbanization 1998–2002 No master plans; shortage of planning know-how; few districts in the city Vacant plots in the core city; single plots at the fringe; individual develop. Slow urbanization 1992–1997 Planning practice Key areas of development Urbanization process Period
  • 14. Land price in the Tartu city and fringe in 2006
  • 19. Issued construction permits for the detached and apartment houses
  • 21. Where is the nearest school, kindergardens, shop, pub?
  • 22.
  • 23. N ew suburban settlements
  • 24. Population change i n the fringe
  • 25. Population growth forecast in the fringe
  • 26. Annual growth of average monthly gross salaries in the fringe
  • 27. Traffic frequency at the Tartu city perimeter: growth 5% 2005/2006 Stratum, 2006 City center Perimeter In Out
  • 29. Highway landscape Separation of l ight traffic and pavements. Features of highways destroy city environment and scare pedestrians
  • 30. Ecological footprint of the Tartu suburbanites 76% 0.90 5000 kWh Household energy 9% 0.11 200 m 2 Construction 15% 0.18 20 km Transport gha/ cap / y Unit
  • 31.
  • 32.
  • 33. How to suburbanize? * Network-city: neighborhood, surrounding similarly important, spatial unity * County service centers * Center-periphery * Structural diversity
  • 34. How to suburbanize? * The indicators’ approach as an efficient analytical tool for planning support systems. * T o control urban expansion so that urban areas can develop in a more sustainable manner. * T he planning quality using participatory means