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A presentation for

   Full Planet,
  Empty Plates:
The New Geopolitics of
    Food Scarcity
        A book by
    Lester R. Brown
We are entering a time of chronic food
    scarcity, one that is leading to intense
   competition for control of land and water
resources—in short, a new geopolitics of food.
                              —Lester R. Brown




                                     Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
Contents
1) Food: The Weak Link       7)    Grain Yields Starting to
2) The Ecology of                  Plateau
   Population Growth         8)    Rising Temperatures,
3) Moving Up the Food              Rising Food Prices
   Chain                     9)    China and the
4) Food or Fuel?                   Soybean Challenge
5) Eroding Soils Darkening   10)   The Global Land Rush
   Our Future                11)   Can We Prevent a
6) Peak Water and Food             Food Breakdown?
   Scarcity



                                               Photo Credit: USDA/Wally Wilhelm
Chapter 1
Food: The Weak Link




                      Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
An Era of Rising Food Prices

• 2007-08: Grain and soybean prices more than doubled,
  leading to food riots and unrest in some 60 countries
• Prices eased somewhat with global recession
• 2010-11: Another price spike helped fuel the Arab Spring
• 2012: Prices again approaching or setting records

    Corn Futures Prices   Wheat Futures Prices   Soybean Futures Prices




                                                             Source: CME Group
Precarious Global Food Situation

World Grain Production and Consumption,
                                          • Dangerously small
               1960-2011                    margin between grain
                                            consumption and grain
                                            production


                                          • Now we face long-term
                                            trends that:
                                             – increase food
                                               demand
                                             – limit food production

  We are only one poor harvest away from chaos in
  world grain markets.
                                                        Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Tobias Helbig
Demand Growing, Supply Strained

Demand Side               Supply Side
• Growing population      • Eroding soils
• People moving up the    • Depleting aquifers
  food chain              • Plateauing grain
• Biofuels turning food     yields
  into fuel               • Rising temperature




                                      Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Tobias Helbig
From Surplus to Scarcity
World Grain Stocks as Days of   • In the past, world had
  Consumption, 1990-2012          two safety cushions in
                                  case of harvest shortfall:
                                   – idled U.S. cropland
                                   – large stocks of grain
                                • Now, we have lost those
                                  two safety cushions
                                   – U.S. abandoned cropland
                                     set aside programs
                                   – grain stocks have fallen
                                     dangerously low
                                                Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Tobias Helbig
Strained Food Budgets

• Rising demand and       World Monthly Food Price Index,
                            January 1990-August 2012
  tightening supply
  raise world food
  prices to new heights

• For consumers who
  spend 50–70% of
  their income on food,
  higher prices mean
  eating less


                                          Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Tobias Helbig
Hunger Rising
• Now close to 1 billion
                                             Percent of Families
  people are hungry                          with Foodless Days
• Some families have      India                      24
  ―foodless days‖ when Nigeria                       27
  they do not eat at all Peru                        14
• Children suffer the
                          Source: GlobeScan Inc.


  most: some are
  physically and mentally
  stunted, unable to
  reach their full
  potential
                                                   Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Claudiad
Learning from the Past
• Food shortages undermined ancient
  civilizations
   – Sumer: A flaw in the irrigation system led to
     rising salt levels in the soil and crop failures
   – Maya Empire: forest clearing led to soil
     erosion and loss of soil fertility


While the decline of early civilizations can be traced
to one or two damaging environmental trends, we are
now dealing with several. Will we suffer their fate?
                                            Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
Chapter 2
The Ecology of Population Growth




                          Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
Population Pressures
• 7 billion people on the    World Population, 1800-2010, with Projection to 2100

  planet
• Each year, nearly 80
  million people added
• Some 215 million
  women who want to
  plan their families lack
  access to family
  planning services
• Large families trap
  people in poverty
 We are fast outgrowing the earth’s capacity to sustain
 our increasing numbers.
                                                                  Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
System Overload
• Overfishing: 80% of oceanic fisheries are being
  fished at or beyond their sustainable yield

• Overgrazing: The global grazing livestock
  population grew by 1.2 billion animals since 1960

• Overcutting: The world’s forests lose a net 5.6
  million hectares—an area the size of Costa Rica—
  each year

• Overplowing: In parts of Africa, Asia, and the
  Middle East, productive cropland is turning into
  wasteland
• Overpumping: Half the world’s population lives in
  countries that are extracting groundwater from
  aquifers faster than it is replenished
                                           Photo Credit: USDA/ Stephen Ausmus; Yann Arthus-Bertrand
Demographic Transition

• High birth rates and low death
  rates create a demographic trap
  of rapidly expanding population
   – E.g. Nigeria, Ethiopia, Pakistan
   – Sub-Saharan Africa and the Indian
     subcontinent will add nearly 2
     billion people by 2050


• Countries that reduce both birth and death rates benefit
  from a demographic bonus
   – E.g. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore
   – 44 countries in Europe, Latin America, and parts of Southeast Asia
     have reached population stability

                                                      Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
Population Uncertainty
• U.N. projections of adding 2.3 billion people by
  2050 may not in fact materialize because they
  do not take into account:
  – Resource availability
  – Climate variability
  – Changing geopolitical (in)stability


Human demands have outrun the carrying capacity
of the economy’s natural support systems, leading
us toward collapse.

                                          Photo Credit: USDA/ Lynn Betts
Chapter 3
Moving Up the Food Chain




                     Photo Credit: USDA / Scott Bauer
More Meat, More Feed
• World meat demand grew       World Meat Production by Type,
                                        1950-2010
  fivefold since 1950

• As incomes rise, some 3
  billion people in the
  developing world desire to
  eat more meat, milk, and
  eggs

• This requires more grain
  and soybeans for animal
  feed
                                              Photo Credit: USDA / Keith Weller
Turning Grain into Animal Protein
               Pounds of Grain Fed for Each
                  Pound of Weight Gain




Pound for pound, beef takes more grain than other
livestock products, and thus more water, too.
                                              Photo Credit: USDA / Scott Bauer
Fish Farming Expands
World Wild Fish Catch and Farmed
                                   • With most wild fisheries fully
   Fish Production, 1961-2010        or over-exploited, growth in
                                     demand for fish now being
                                     met by fish farms

                                   • Some aquaculture
                                     operations use grain and
                                     soybeans as feed; others
                                     use fish meal, putting
                                     additional pressure on
                                     oceanic fisheries.


                                                      Photo Credit: USDA / Peggy Greb
China’s Meat Consumption Rising
• China now consumes             Meat Consumption in China and the
                                      United States, 1960-2010
  twice as much meat as
  the United States
• On per capita level,
  roles are reversed: U.S.
  consumption per
  person is twice China’s


 As incomes continue to rise, the pressure to produce
 enough grain and soybeans to satisfy the growing appetite
 for livestock and poultry products will only intensify.

                                                   Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / fotoVoyager
U.S. Meat Consumption Declining
• After decades of growth,   Meat Consumption in the United States,
                                         1909-2012
  U.S. meat consumption
  has peaked
• Fell 6% from 2007 to
  2012
• Benefits of moving down
  the food chain include
  better personal and
  environmental health,
  plus lower grain and
  water demand


                                                    Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Darin Burt
No Grain Needed: India's Dairy Model

                                     • In the 1960s, Dr. Verghese
  Milk Production in India and the
      United States, 1961-2010         Kurien organized an
                                       umbrella organization for
                                       small milk producer co-ops

                                     • India now leads the world in
                                       milk production, overtaking
                                       the United States in 1997

                                     • Cows are fed almost
                                       exclusively crop residues
                                       and grass


                                                       Photo Credit: USDA / Scott Bauer
No Grain Needed: Beef and
         Farmed Fish in China
• Cows in China's "Beef Belt" are fed straw
  and cornstalks from double-cropped winter
  wheat and corn fields

• Four carp species farmed together in
  China feed on what they would in the wild
  (e.g. plankton, aquatic plants); no grain or
  fish meal involved

                                    Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Pazhyna
Chapter 4
Food or Fuel?




                Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Vasata Studio
Feeding Cars Instead of People

 • U.S. corn is largest crop of  Corn Use for Feed and Fuel Ethanol
   any grain worldwide, critical   in the United States, 1980-2011

   to world supplies
 • Close to 1/3 of U.S. grain
   now going to ethanol
 • Grain used to fuel U.S. cars
   in 2011 could otherwise have
   fed 400 million people
 • U.S. ethanol euphoria
   beginning in 2005 helped
   raise food prices worldwide
The grain needed to fill an SUV’s 25-gallon tank with
ethanol once could feed one person for a year.
                                                       Photo Credit: USDA / Scott Bauer
Ethanol Production in Top 10 Countries, 2011

                                                              Million Gallons
  Main ethanol feedstocks:
                                    United States                                 14,319
  • Corn in United States, China,
                                    Brazil                                         5,553
    Canada                          China                                            555
  • Sugarcane in Brazil             Canada                                           462
  • Various grains in Europe        France                                           301
                                    Germany                                          203
  • Sugarcane and molasses in
                                    India                                            147
    India, Thailand
                                    Thailand                                         135
  Corn-based ethanol is blended     Spain                                            122
  into U.S. gasoline to meet        Belgium                                          106
  ―renewable fuels‖ mandate         World                                         22,742
                                    Source: F.O. Licht

If the entire U.S. grain harvest were turned into ethanol, it
would only satisfy 18% of current U.S. gasoline demand.
                                                         Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Bob Randall
Biodiesel Production in Top 10 Countries, 2011

                                                         Million Gallons
Main biodiesel feedstocks:
                               United States                                     841
• Soybeans in United States,
                               Germany                                           835
  Argentina, and Brazil        Argentina                                         729
• Rapeseed in Europe           Brazil                                            698
• Palm oil in Indonesia,       France                                            420
  Thailand                     Indonesia                                         360
                               Spain                                             188
                               Italy                                             156
E.U. mandate that renewables   Thailand                                          156
contribute 10% of transport    Netherlands                                       117
energy by 2020 coming under    World                                           5,651
fire                           Source: F.O. Licht




                                                    Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Bob Randall
Biofuel Crops Displace Food Crops, Forests

• Biofuel crops vary in      Biofuel Net Energy Ratio for Selected Crops
  energy ―bang for the
  buck‖
• New oil palm plantations
  come at expense of
  tropical forests
• Greenhouse gas
  emissions from land use
  change and fertilizers
  likely negate climate
  benefit of replacing
  gasoline with biofuels

                                                      Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
Chapter 5
Eroding Soils Darkening Our Future




                           Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
Worsening Soil Erosion
• Overplowing, overgrazing, and deforestation make soil
  vulnerable to wind and water erosion

• Roughly 1/3 of the world’s cropland is now losing
  topsoil faster than it can be re-formed

• Topsoil loss reduces productivity, eventually leading
  farmers and herders to abandon their land

• Countries such as Lesotho, Haiti, Mongolia, and North
  Korea are losing the ability to feed themselves



                                              Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Steven Allan
Grazing Livestock Degrading Land
• The world’s 3.4 billion cattle,
  sheep, and goats destroy          World Grazing Livestock, 1961-2010

  vegetation, leaving land
  vulnerable to erosion
• Goats thrive in degraded
  conditions, so growth in their
  population relative to sheep
  and cattle is a sign of
  grassland deterioration
• With fast-growing goat
  numbers, Nigeria is losing
  868,000 acres of rangeland
  and cropland to
  desertification each year                           Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
Dust Bowls in History
• Overplowing in the U.S. Great Plains led to the
  1930s Dust Bowl that forced the migration of
  hundreds of thousands of people

• The Soviet Virgin Lands Project converted a
  massive area of grassland to grainland,
  resulting in another dust bowl and ultimately
  cropland abandonment




                                   Photo Credit: U.S. Library of Congress/ Arthur Rothstein
Dust Bowls Today
• Now overgrazing in northwestern China and western
  Mongolia is leading to the merging of deserts and the
  formation of dust storms that sweep across the
  continent, sometimes even as far as North America

• Population and livestock pressure in the African Sahel
  has destroyed soils; dust storms carrying 2–3 billion
  tons of soil leave Africa each year


These two newer dust bowls dwarf anything the
world has seen before. We have yet to see their
full effects.
                                              Photo Credit: NASA Earth Observatory
Erosion of Agriculture

 The shrinking area of productive land and the
 earth’s steadily expanding human population
are on a collision course. Soil erosion and land
 degradation issues are local, but the effect on
             food security is global.




                                      Photo Credit: USDA/ Jack Dykinga
Chapter 6
Peak Water and Food Scarcity




                       Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
Agriculture’s Water Footprint
                              World Irrigated Area Per Thousand
• Worldwide 70% of water is           People, 1961-2009
  used for agriculture


• Some 40% of the world
  grain harvest is grown on
  irrigated land




                                                   Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
Coming Water Shortages




             18 countries, 3.6 billion people         Source: EPI



• Overpumping produces food bubbles that burst when water supplies
  dry up
• 175 million people in India and 130 million people in China eat grain
  produced by overpumping
• In the Arab Middle East, a collision between population growth and
  water supply is reducing regional grain harvests
Saudi Arabia’s Bursting Bubble
• Saudi Arabia became
                              Wheat Production in Saudi Arabia, 1995-
  self-sufficient in wheat        2011, with Projection to 2016
  by tapping its non-
  replenishable aquifer to
  irrigate the desert
• In early 2008, the
  government announced
  the aquifer was largely
  depleted
• The population of
  nearly 30 million will be
  entirely dependent on
  imported grain by 2016

Saudi Arabia is the first country to publicly project how
aquifer depletion will shrink its grain harvest.
                                                                Photo Credit: NASA
Potential for Conflict
 U.S. water withdrawals from the
 Colorado River cause it to run              Dam-building projects in Turkey
 dry before it reaches Mexico’s              restrict Tigris-Euphrates flow to
 Gulf of California                          Syria and Iraq



          Foreign land acquisitions for
          farming in Ethiopia and Sudan
          will affect the availability of fresh                 Dams in China diminish
          Nile water to Egypt                                   Mekong flow available to
                                                                Thailand, Viet Nam, and
                                                                other downstream users

Competition for scarce water resources creates tension on regional
and international scales, pitting cities against farmers and countries
against each other.
                                           Approximate watershed outlines from EPI, overlaid on map from www.ammap.com
Chapter 7
Grain Yields Starting to Plateau




                         Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / ollo
Growth in Grain Yields Slowing
                              World Average Grain Yield, 1950-2011
• World average grain yield
  has tripled since 1950
• But the pace of growth is
  slowing
   – 1950-1990: It grew
     2.2% per year
   – 1990-2011: It grew
     1.3% per year

In some of the more agriculturally advanced countries,
the increase in grain yields has come to an end.

                                               Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Simon Oxley
Wheat Yields Flat in Western Europe
Wheat Yields in France, Germany, and
  the United Kingdom, 1961-2011
                                       • Farmers in France,
                                         Germany, and the United
                                         Kingdom appear to have
                                         reached upper biological
                                         limits, exhausted the
                                         backlog of agricultural
                                         technology
                                       • They are Western Europe’s
                                         leading wheat producers
                                       • Wheat yields have
                                         plateaued in all three

   Together, these three countries produce 80 million
   tons of wheat per year, 12 % of the world harvest.
                                                       Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / img85h
Is China Hitting the Glass Ceiling for Rice?

• Japan’s rice yields have    Rice Yields in Japan and China, 1960-2011
  not increased in 17 years
• South Korea’s rice yields
  have also plateaued
• China’s rice yields are
  approaching Japan’s, may
  not be able to surpass
  them

  Together, these three countries represent one third
  of the world rice harvest.

                                                   Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / HAIBO BI
Where Else Will Grain Yields Stall?

• China’s wheat yields may be approaching a
  plateau, as with rice
• With rising temperatures, farmers
  everywhere face new climate constraints
  even as they approach biological limits


Thus far, rice or wheat yields have plateaued only
in medium-sized countries. What happens when
grain yields plateau in some of the larger ones?


                                         Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Dave Hughes
Chapter 8
Rising Temperatures, Rising Food Prices




                              Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / jansmarc
Climate Disruption
                            Average Global Temperature and Atmospheric
• The massive burning        Carbon Dioxide Concentrations, 1880-2012

  of fossil fuels is
  increasing the level of
  carbon dioxide (CO2)
  in the atmosphere,
  raising the earth’s
  temperature and
  disrupting climate



                                                      Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
Higher Temperatures, Lower Yields
• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
  projects earth’s average temperature will rise up to
  6.4 C (11.5 F) during this century

• Current trajectory is already outpacing projections

• For every 1°C rise in temperature above the
  optimum during the growing season, yields of
  wheat, rice, and corn can be expected to drop 10%



                                           Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / dra_schwartz
Melting Ice Threatens Food Security
• Mountain glaciers are ―reservoirs‖ for many rivers
  that are a source of irrigation water
   – As glaciers disappear, farmers lose this steady
     source of water

• Ice resting on land that melts and runs-off into the
  oceans raises sea level, threatening rice-growing
  river deltas
   – If the Greenland ice sheet completely melted, sea
     levels would rise 23 feet
   – Just a rise of 3 feet would inundate half the
     riceland in Bangladesh

                                            Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / jgareri
No More ―Normal‖
• In the past, extreme weather events were
  anomalies and farmers could expect a return to
  normal conditions by the next harvest
• But with rising temperatures and changing climate,
  there is no normal to return to
• The 11,000 year period of relative climate stability
  in which agriculture developed is over
• Increasing world grain stocks to ~110 days of
  consumption is one way to create a buffer against
  extreme weather
With each passing year, the agricultural system is
becoming more out of sync with the climate system.
                                            Photo Credit: USDA/Jack Dykinga
2012 Drought Decimates U.S. Corn
                           • Hottest July on record in
                             United States
                           • Drought covered more
                             than 60% of contiguous
                             United States
                           • As the drought and high
                             temperatures damaged
                             the corn and soybean
                             crops, prices for the
                             commodities rose


     Climate dice are being loaded,
     making such extremes more likely.
Chapter 9
China and the Soybean Challenge




                         Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
Soybeans Rise to Prominence
• Soybeans originated in
  China 3,000 years ago            World Soybean Production, 1950-2011

• Since 1930, soybean meal
  has been mixed into
  livestock feed as a source
  of high-quality protein
• Today, the United States,
  Brazil, and Argentina
  combined account for over
  four fifths of the total world
  production of nearly 250
  million tons

                                                       Photo Credit: USDA/ Scott Bauer
China Dominates Demand
• In 2008, China surpassed       Soybean Production, Consumption, and
  the United States as the            Imports in China, 1964-2011
  leading soybean consumer

• 500 million pigs – half the
  world total – live in China,
  eating soybean meal mixed
  with grain

• China currently imports
  60% of all soybeans traded
  internationally

As China and other developing countries continue to move
up the food chain, this demand will only increase.
                                                       Photo Credit: USDA/ Keith Weller
Clearing the Amazon for Soybeans
• Raising soybean yields is    Soybean Area Harvested in the Western
                                      Hemisphere, 1960-2011
  difficult; most of rise in
  soybean demand is met by
  expanding the planted area

• In Brazil, this means
  deforestation in the
  Amazon Basin and
  degradation of the
  savannah-like cerrado
Protecting these biodiverse, carbon-capturing ecosystems
now depends on the world’s more affluent population moving
lower on the food chain.
                                                    Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
Chapter 10
The Global Land Rush




                   Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / susoy
New Geopolitics of Food Scarcity
• Doubling of grain, soybean            Large-scale Land Acquisitions by Project
  prices in 2007-08 revealed a             Type, October 2008 – August 2009

  new geopolitics of food—
  every country for itself:
   – Russia, Thailand, other grain
     exporting countries restricted
     or banned exports
   – Some importers turned to
     buying or leasing tracts of land
     in other countries on which to
     grow food
   – These land acquisitions, often
     called ―land grabs,‖ multiplied
     quickly


                                                           Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Pawel Gaul
Land Grabs: The Investors
• Major investors include China, India, Saudi Arabia, South
  Korea, and United Arab Emirates

• Beyond food security: Some investors—U.S., E.U.,
  Southeast Asian companies—hope to produce biofuel
  crops

• Other investors see land grabbing as a lucrative
  investment opportunity: Hedge funds, pension funds,
  university endowments, speculators



                                             Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / BanksPhotos
Land Grabs: The Host Countries
• Main targets are sub-Saharan African countries:
   – Ethiopia, Sudan, and South Sudan, all emergency food aid
     recipients
   – Also includes Kenya, Mali,Tanzania, and others
   – Land often leased for 25 to 99 years for less than $1 per acre per
     year

• Significant interest in Southeast Asia…
   – Cambodia, Laos, Philippines, Indonesia

• …in Latin America…
   – Brazil, Argentina

• …and the former Soviet Union
   – Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine
                                                      Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Bob Randall
Selected Examples of Land Deals
Target Country Description

Brazil         China’s Chongqing Grain Group reportedly
               harvesting soybeans on some 500,000 acres in
               Bahia state

Cambodia       Singapore-based HLH Group farming corn on
               35,000-acre, 70-year lease

Ethiopia       Saudi billionaire’s agribusiness firm leasing
               24,700 acres for rice in Gambella region; plans to
               obtain another 716,000 acres

Russia         South Korea’s Hyundai Heavy Industries growing
               corn, oats, wheat, and soybeans to ship home on
               two farms totaling 40,000 acres

                                                  Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / zoran simin
Ethiopia as Microcosm
• Farmers, indigenous people often find out about deals
  only as they are forced from their land
   – By early 2012, more than 1 million Ethiopians forcibly
     relocated by their government
• Informal land rights make it difficult for people to protest
• Projects using highly-mechanized, industrial agriculture;
  few jobs for local people
• Food produced most often shipped to investor’s home
  country, contributing nothing to the local food supply
• Land grabs for agriculture are also necessarily water
  grabs

                                                 Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / BanksPhotos
The Land Rush Is On
• As more land is acquired and local people are deprived
  of jobs and land, ranks of the hungry may swell

• Hostility of local people to land grabs is the rule, not the
  exception

• Rising political instability is a serious concern—may
  contribute to already growing list of failing states

 These land acquisitions are an integral part of a
 global power struggle for control of the earth’s land
 and water resources.
                                                 Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Bob Randall
Chapter 11
Can We Prevent a Food Breakdown?




                          Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
Toward a More Stable Food System

Demand Side                 Supply Side
• Stabilize population      • Conserve soil
• Eradicate poverty         • Increase water
• Reduce excessive meat       productivity
  consumption               • Fill the yield gap
• Eliminate biofuels        • Stabilize climate
  mandates



If we tackle both sides of the food equation, we can
rebuild world grain stocks, improving food security.
                                              Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Niko Vujevic
Stabilizing Population and Eradicating
                   Poverty
• School lunch programs        Female Secondary Education and Total
  help children, especially               Fertility Rates
  girls, stay in school
• Girls who stay in school
  longer are likely to have
  fewer children
• Reducing family size
  helps lift families out of
  poverty
• Malnutrition is found less
  often in smaller families
    Efforts to eliminate poverty and slow population
    growth reinforce each other.
                                                          Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Viorika
Supply Solutions
Soil Conservation Measures
Return highly erodible land to
grass
Terracing
Plant tree shelterbelts          Terracing         Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand



Strip cropping
No-till farming




                                 No-till farming       Photo Credit: USDA ARS
                                                      Photo Credit: USDA/Dave Clark
Supply Solutions
                                                      Water Conservation
                                                      Measures
                                                      Use more efficient irrigation
                                                      techniques (e.g. drip irrigation)
                                                      Use more water-efficient
                                                      crops, such as wheat instead
Drip Irrigation                                       of rice
                   Photo Credit: USDA/Pete Mortimer


                                                      Move down the food chain
                                                      Price water to encourage
                                                      efficiency
                                                      Recycle water


                                                                             Photo Credit: USDA ARS
Case Study: Raising
             Grain Yields in Malawi
• 2005 drought left many
  people hungry or starving      Corn Yields in Malawi, 1961-2011

• Government, with
  international support,
  provided farmers fertilizer
  and seed subsidies
• Corn harvest nearly
  doubled in 2 years;
  farmers’ incomes grew
  and they were able to
  export some grain
With economic incentives and access to modern inputs,
farmers in sub-Saharan Africa can easily double yields.
                                                  Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Sharon Day
Stabilize Climate
• Need to cut carbon emissions 80%
  worldwide
• Spur shift to clean energy economy by
  restructuring taxes to incorporate indirect
  costs of fossil fuels
  – Increase carbon taxes, reduce income taxes
• Eliminate fossil fuels subsidies

  Time is our scarcest resource.

                                     Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / pamspix
Plan B Carbon Dioxide Emissions
        Reduction Goals
Harnessing the Wind
• Centerpiece of Plan B       World Cumulative Installed Wind
                                Power Capacity, 1980-2011
  energy economy
• Growing number of
  places get a large share
  of electricity from wind:
   ‒ Germany: 4 states
     over 45%
   ‒ Denmark: more than
     25% nationally
   ‒ United States:
     South Dakota and
     Iowa ~ 20%
                                                Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / monap
Solar Power Heating Up
World Cumulative Solar Photovoltaics   • Sunlight hitting the earth in 1
       Installations, 1998-2011          hour could power global
                                         economy for 1 year
                                       • Solar power in Europe can
                                         now satisfy the electricity
                                         needs of some 15 million
                                         households
                                       • With 24,700 MW of PV,
                                         Germany has twice as much
                                         solar installed as number two
                                         Italy




                                                         Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / manwolste
Geothermal: Energy from the Earth
•   Kenya now gets one fifth    World Cumulative Installed Geothermal
    of its electricity from           Power Capacity, 1950-2010
    geothermal energy
•   Indonesia is shooting for
    9,500 megawatts of
    geothermal generating
    capacity by 2025, which
    would meet 56% of
    current electricity needs
•   Potential geothermal
    capacity worldwide could
    power the entire world
    economy nearly two times
    over


                                                      Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Animean
Restructuring Transport
U.S. Motor Gasoline Consumption,
            1950-2012
                                   • Cities emphasizing rail
                                     and bus rapid transit
                                     need fewer cars
                                   • Plug-in hybrid and all-
                                     electric vehicles can run
                                     primarily on emissions-
                                     free electricity
                                   • Good news: U.S.
                                     gasoline use dropped
                                     11% from 2007 peak to
                                     2012, trend likely to
                                     continue

                                                Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / mm88
Redefining Security
• Historically, security has been defined mostly
  in military terms
• But today climate volatility, emerging water
  shortages, spreading hunger, and failing
  states are the new threats to survival
• Food security is not just in the hands of
  agricultural departments
• The challenge is to reorder fiscal priorities to
  match these new dangers


                                           Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
A Wartime Mobilization

• We have the technologies necessary to prevent
  a food breakdown– what is needed now is the
  political will to do so
• Saving civilization will require urgent action on
  a large scale, but we’ve mobilized quickly
  before
• Upon entering World War II, the U.S. mobilized
  resources and completely restructured its
  economy within months


                                            Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
Let’s Get to Work

      Saving civilization is not a spectator sport.
                                    —Lester R. Brown

• Preventing a food breakdown requires a huge political
  effort undertaken on many fronts and with a fierce sense
  of urgency
• Make sure your elected officials know what’s important
   – The overriding priority is redefining security and
     reallocating fiscal resources accordingly
• Take action in an area that concerns or excites you



                                              Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / kryczka
To learn more about this
     mobilization…
             read World on the Edge by
                Lester R. Brown. More
                information and full-text
               copies of our publications
                     are available at
                www.earth-policy.org
To learn more about the global food
            situation…
                    read Full Planet, Empty
                  Plates: The New Geopolitics
                       of Food Scarcity by
                   Lester R. Brown. The book
                     and supporting data sets
                           are available at
                      www.earth-policy.org

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Full Planet, Empty Plates Slideshow Presentation

  • 1. A presentation for Full Planet, Empty Plates: The New Geopolitics of Food Scarcity A book by Lester R. Brown
  • 2. We are entering a time of chronic food scarcity, one that is leading to intense competition for control of land and water resources—in short, a new geopolitics of food. —Lester R. Brown Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
  • 3. Contents 1) Food: The Weak Link 7) Grain Yields Starting to 2) The Ecology of Plateau Population Growth 8) Rising Temperatures, 3) Moving Up the Food Rising Food Prices Chain 9) China and the 4) Food or Fuel? Soybean Challenge 5) Eroding Soils Darkening 10) The Global Land Rush Our Future 11) Can We Prevent a 6) Peak Water and Food Food Breakdown? Scarcity Photo Credit: USDA/Wally Wilhelm
  • 4. Chapter 1 Food: The Weak Link Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
  • 5. An Era of Rising Food Prices • 2007-08: Grain and soybean prices more than doubled, leading to food riots and unrest in some 60 countries • Prices eased somewhat with global recession • 2010-11: Another price spike helped fuel the Arab Spring • 2012: Prices again approaching or setting records Corn Futures Prices Wheat Futures Prices Soybean Futures Prices Source: CME Group
  • 6. Precarious Global Food Situation World Grain Production and Consumption, • Dangerously small 1960-2011 margin between grain consumption and grain production • Now we face long-term trends that: – increase food demand – limit food production We are only one poor harvest away from chaos in world grain markets. Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Tobias Helbig
  • 7. Demand Growing, Supply Strained Demand Side Supply Side • Growing population • Eroding soils • People moving up the • Depleting aquifers food chain • Plateauing grain • Biofuels turning food yields into fuel • Rising temperature Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Tobias Helbig
  • 8. From Surplus to Scarcity World Grain Stocks as Days of • In the past, world had Consumption, 1990-2012 two safety cushions in case of harvest shortfall: – idled U.S. cropland – large stocks of grain • Now, we have lost those two safety cushions – U.S. abandoned cropland set aside programs – grain stocks have fallen dangerously low Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Tobias Helbig
  • 9. Strained Food Budgets • Rising demand and World Monthly Food Price Index, January 1990-August 2012 tightening supply raise world food prices to new heights • For consumers who spend 50–70% of their income on food, higher prices mean eating less Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Tobias Helbig
  • 10. Hunger Rising • Now close to 1 billion Percent of Families people are hungry with Foodless Days • Some families have India 24 ―foodless days‖ when Nigeria 27 they do not eat at all Peru 14 • Children suffer the Source: GlobeScan Inc. most: some are physically and mentally stunted, unable to reach their full potential Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Claudiad
  • 11. Learning from the Past • Food shortages undermined ancient civilizations – Sumer: A flaw in the irrigation system led to rising salt levels in the soil and crop failures – Maya Empire: forest clearing led to soil erosion and loss of soil fertility While the decline of early civilizations can be traced to one or two damaging environmental trends, we are now dealing with several. Will we suffer their fate? Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
  • 12. Chapter 2 The Ecology of Population Growth Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
  • 13. Population Pressures • 7 billion people on the World Population, 1800-2010, with Projection to 2100 planet • Each year, nearly 80 million people added • Some 215 million women who want to plan their families lack access to family planning services • Large families trap people in poverty We are fast outgrowing the earth’s capacity to sustain our increasing numbers. Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
  • 14. System Overload • Overfishing: 80% of oceanic fisheries are being fished at or beyond their sustainable yield • Overgrazing: The global grazing livestock population grew by 1.2 billion animals since 1960 • Overcutting: The world’s forests lose a net 5.6 million hectares—an area the size of Costa Rica— each year • Overplowing: In parts of Africa, Asia, and the Middle East, productive cropland is turning into wasteland • Overpumping: Half the world’s population lives in countries that are extracting groundwater from aquifers faster than it is replenished Photo Credit: USDA/ Stephen Ausmus; Yann Arthus-Bertrand
  • 15. Demographic Transition • High birth rates and low death rates create a demographic trap of rapidly expanding population – E.g. Nigeria, Ethiopia, Pakistan – Sub-Saharan Africa and the Indian subcontinent will add nearly 2 billion people by 2050 • Countries that reduce both birth and death rates benefit from a demographic bonus – E.g. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore – 44 countries in Europe, Latin America, and parts of Southeast Asia have reached population stability Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
  • 16. Population Uncertainty • U.N. projections of adding 2.3 billion people by 2050 may not in fact materialize because they do not take into account: – Resource availability – Climate variability – Changing geopolitical (in)stability Human demands have outrun the carrying capacity of the economy’s natural support systems, leading us toward collapse. Photo Credit: USDA/ Lynn Betts
  • 17. Chapter 3 Moving Up the Food Chain Photo Credit: USDA / Scott Bauer
  • 18. More Meat, More Feed • World meat demand grew World Meat Production by Type, 1950-2010 fivefold since 1950 • As incomes rise, some 3 billion people in the developing world desire to eat more meat, milk, and eggs • This requires more grain and soybeans for animal feed Photo Credit: USDA / Keith Weller
  • 19. Turning Grain into Animal Protein Pounds of Grain Fed for Each Pound of Weight Gain Pound for pound, beef takes more grain than other livestock products, and thus more water, too. Photo Credit: USDA / Scott Bauer
  • 20. Fish Farming Expands World Wild Fish Catch and Farmed • With most wild fisheries fully Fish Production, 1961-2010 or over-exploited, growth in demand for fish now being met by fish farms • Some aquaculture operations use grain and soybeans as feed; others use fish meal, putting additional pressure on oceanic fisheries. Photo Credit: USDA / Peggy Greb
  • 21. China’s Meat Consumption Rising • China now consumes Meat Consumption in China and the United States, 1960-2010 twice as much meat as the United States • On per capita level, roles are reversed: U.S. consumption per person is twice China’s As incomes continue to rise, the pressure to produce enough grain and soybeans to satisfy the growing appetite for livestock and poultry products will only intensify. Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / fotoVoyager
  • 22. U.S. Meat Consumption Declining • After decades of growth, Meat Consumption in the United States, 1909-2012 U.S. meat consumption has peaked • Fell 6% from 2007 to 2012 • Benefits of moving down the food chain include better personal and environmental health, plus lower grain and water demand Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Darin Burt
  • 23. No Grain Needed: India's Dairy Model • In the 1960s, Dr. Verghese Milk Production in India and the United States, 1961-2010 Kurien organized an umbrella organization for small milk producer co-ops • India now leads the world in milk production, overtaking the United States in 1997 • Cows are fed almost exclusively crop residues and grass Photo Credit: USDA / Scott Bauer
  • 24. No Grain Needed: Beef and Farmed Fish in China • Cows in China's "Beef Belt" are fed straw and cornstalks from double-cropped winter wheat and corn fields • Four carp species farmed together in China feed on what they would in the wild (e.g. plankton, aquatic plants); no grain or fish meal involved Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Pazhyna
  • 25. Chapter 4 Food or Fuel? Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Vasata Studio
  • 26. Feeding Cars Instead of People • U.S. corn is largest crop of Corn Use for Feed and Fuel Ethanol any grain worldwide, critical in the United States, 1980-2011 to world supplies • Close to 1/3 of U.S. grain now going to ethanol • Grain used to fuel U.S. cars in 2011 could otherwise have fed 400 million people • U.S. ethanol euphoria beginning in 2005 helped raise food prices worldwide The grain needed to fill an SUV’s 25-gallon tank with ethanol once could feed one person for a year. Photo Credit: USDA / Scott Bauer
  • 27. Ethanol Production in Top 10 Countries, 2011 Million Gallons Main ethanol feedstocks: United States 14,319 • Corn in United States, China, Brazil 5,553 Canada China 555 • Sugarcane in Brazil Canada 462 • Various grains in Europe France 301 Germany 203 • Sugarcane and molasses in India 147 India, Thailand Thailand 135 Corn-based ethanol is blended Spain 122 into U.S. gasoline to meet Belgium 106 ―renewable fuels‖ mandate World 22,742 Source: F.O. Licht If the entire U.S. grain harvest were turned into ethanol, it would only satisfy 18% of current U.S. gasoline demand. Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Bob Randall
  • 28. Biodiesel Production in Top 10 Countries, 2011 Million Gallons Main biodiesel feedstocks: United States 841 • Soybeans in United States, Germany 835 Argentina, and Brazil Argentina 729 • Rapeseed in Europe Brazil 698 • Palm oil in Indonesia, France 420 Thailand Indonesia 360 Spain 188 Italy 156 E.U. mandate that renewables Thailand 156 contribute 10% of transport Netherlands 117 energy by 2020 coming under World 5,651 fire Source: F.O. Licht Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Bob Randall
  • 29. Biofuel Crops Displace Food Crops, Forests • Biofuel crops vary in Biofuel Net Energy Ratio for Selected Crops energy ―bang for the buck‖ • New oil palm plantations come at expense of tropical forests • Greenhouse gas emissions from land use change and fertilizers likely negate climate benefit of replacing gasoline with biofuels Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
  • 30. Chapter 5 Eroding Soils Darkening Our Future Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
  • 31. Worsening Soil Erosion • Overplowing, overgrazing, and deforestation make soil vulnerable to wind and water erosion • Roughly 1/3 of the world’s cropland is now losing topsoil faster than it can be re-formed • Topsoil loss reduces productivity, eventually leading farmers and herders to abandon their land • Countries such as Lesotho, Haiti, Mongolia, and North Korea are losing the ability to feed themselves Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Steven Allan
  • 32. Grazing Livestock Degrading Land • The world’s 3.4 billion cattle, sheep, and goats destroy World Grazing Livestock, 1961-2010 vegetation, leaving land vulnerable to erosion • Goats thrive in degraded conditions, so growth in their population relative to sheep and cattle is a sign of grassland deterioration • With fast-growing goat numbers, Nigeria is losing 868,000 acres of rangeland and cropland to desertification each year Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
  • 33. Dust Bowls in History • Overplowing in the U.S. Great Plains led to the 1930s Dust Bowl that forced the migration of hundreds of thousands of people • The Soviet Virgin Lands Project converted a massive area of grassland to grainland, resulting in another dust bowl and ultimately cropland abandonment Photo Credit: U.S. Library of Congress/ Arthur Rothstein
  • 34. Dust Bowls Today • Now overgrazing in northwestern China and western Mongolia is leading to the merging of deserts and the formation of dust storms that sweep across the continent, sometimes even as far as North America • Population and livestock pressure in the African Sahel has destroyed soils; dust storms carrying 2–3 billion tons of soil leave Africa each year These two newer dust bowls dwarf anything the world has seen before. We have yet to see their full effects. Photo Credit: NASA Earth Observatory
  • 35. Erosion of Agriculture The shrinking area of productive land and the earth’s steadily expanding human population are on a collision course. Soil erosion and land degradation issues are local, but the effect on food security is global. Photo Credit: USDA/ Jack Dykinga
  • 36. Chapter 6 Peak Water and Food Scarcity Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
  • 37. Agriculture’s Water Footprint World Irrigated Area Per Thousand • Worldwide 70% of water is People, 1961-2009 used for agriculture • Some 40% of the world grain harvest is grown on irrigated land Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
  • 38. Coming Water Shortages 18 countries, 3.6 billion people Source: EPI • Overpumping produces food bubbles that burst when water supplies dry up • 175 million people in India and 130 million people in China eat grain produced by overpumping • In the Arab Middle East, a collision between population growth and water supply is reducing regional grain harvests
  • 39. Saudi Arabia’s Bursting Bubble • Saudi Arabia became Wheat Production in Saudi Arabia, 1995- self-sufficient in wheat 2011, with Projection to 2016 by tapping its non- replenishable aquifer to irrigate the desert • In early 2008, the government announced the aquifer was largely depleted • The population of nearly 30 million will be entirely dependent on imported grain by 2016 Saudi Arabia is the first country to publicly project how aquifer depletion will shrink its grain harvest. Photo Credit: NASA
  • 40. Potential for Conflict U.S. water withdrawals from the Colorado River cause it to run Dam-building projects in Turkey dry before it reaches Mexico’s restrict Tigris-Euphrates flow to Gulf of California Syria and Iraq Foreign land acquisitions for farming in Ethiopia and Sudan will affect the availability of fresh Dams in China diminish Nile water to Egypt Mekong flow available to Thailand, Viet Nam, and other downstream users Competition for scarce water resources creates tension on regional and international scales, pitting cities against farmers and countries against each other. Approximate watershed outlines from EPI, overlaid on map from www.ammap.com
  • 41. Chapter 7 Grain Yields Starting to Plateau Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / ollo
  • 42. Growth in Grain Yields Slowing World Average Grain Yield, 1950-2011 • World average grain yield has tripled since 1950 • But the pace of growth is slowing – 1950-1990: It grew 2.2% per year – 1990-2011: It grew 1.3% per year In some of the more agriculturally advanced countries, the increase in grain yields has come to an end. Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Simon Oxley
  • 43. Wheat Yields Flat in Western Europe Wheat Yields in France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, 1961-2011 • Farmers in France, Germany, and the United Kingdom appear to have reached upper biological limits, exhausted the backlog of agricultural technology • They are Western Europe’s leading wheat producers • Wheat yields have plateaued in all three Together, these three countries produce 80 million tons of wheat per year, 12 % of the world harvest. Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / img85h
  • 44. Is China Hitting the Glass Ceiling for Rice? • Japan’s rice yields have Rice Yields in Japan and China, 1960-2011 not increased in 17 years • South Korea’s rice yields have also plateaued • China’s rice yields are approaching Japan’s, may not be able to surpass them Together, these three countries represent one third of the world rice harvest. Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / HAIBO BI
  • 45. Where Else Will Grain Yields Stall? • China’s wheat yields may be approaching a plateau, as with rice • With rising temperatures, farmers everywhere face new climate constraints even as they approach biological limits Thus far, rice or wheat yields have plateaued only in medium-sized countries. What happens when grain yields plateau in some of the larger ones? Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Dave Hughes
  • 46. Chapter 8 Rising Temperatures, Rising Food Prices Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / jansmarc
  • 47. Climate Disruption Average Global Temperature and Atmospheric • The massive burning Carbon Dioxide Concentrations, 1880-2012 of fossil fuels is increasing the level of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere, raising the earth’s temperature and disrupting climate Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
  • 48. Higher Temperatures, Lower Yields • The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects earth’s average temperature will rise up to 6.4 C (11.5 F) during this century • Current trajectory is already outpacing projections • For every 1°C rise in temperature above the optimum during the growing season, yields of wheat, rice, and corn can be expected to drop 10% Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / dra_schwartz
  • 49. Melting Ice Threatens Food Security • Mountain glaciers are ―reservoirs‖ for many rivers that are a source of irrigation water – As glaciers disappear, farmers lose this steady source of water • Ice resting on land that melts and runs-off into the oceans raises sea level, threatening rice-growing river deltas – If the Greenland ice sheet completely melted, sea levels would rise 23 feet – Just a rise of 3 feet would inundate half the riceland in Bangladesh Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / jgareri
  • 50. No More ―Normal‖ • In the past, extreme weather events were anomalies and farmers could expect a return to normal conditions by the next harvest • But with rising temperatures and changing climate, there is no normal to return to • The 11,000 year period of relative climate stability in which agriculture developed is over • Increasing world grain stocks to ~110 days of consumption is one way to create a buffer against extreme weather With each passing year, the agricultural system is becoming more out of sync with the climate system. Photo Credit: USDA/Jack Dykinga
  • 51. 2012 Drought Decimates U.S. Corn • Hottest July on record in United States • Drought covered more than 60% of contiguous United States • As the drought and high temperatures damaged the corn and soybean crops, prices for the commodities rose Climate dice are being loaded, making such extremes more likely.
  • 52. Chapter 9 China and the Soybean Challenge Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
  • 53. Soybeans Rise to Prominence • Soybeans originated in China 3,000 years ago World Soybean Production, 1950-2011 • Since 1930, soybean meal has been mixed into livestock feed as a source of high-quality protein • Today, the United States, Brazil, and Argentina combined account for over four fifths of the total world production of nearly 250 million tons Photo Credit: USDA/ Scott Bauer
  • 54. China Dominates Demand • In 2008, China surpassed Soybean Production, Consumption, and the United States as the Imports in China, 1964-2011 leading soybean consumer • 500 million pigs – half the world total – live in China, eating soybean meal mixed with grain • China currently imports 60% of all soybeans traded internationally As China and other developing countries continue to move up the food chain, this demand will only increase. Photo Credit: USDA/ Keith Weller
  • 55. Clearing the Amazon for Soybeans • Raising soybean yields is Soybean Area Harvested in the Western Hemisphere, 1960-2011 difficult; most of rise in soybean demand is met by expanding the planted area • In Brazil, this means deforestation in the Amazon Basin and degradation of the savannah-like cerrado Protecting these biodiverse, carbon-capturing ecosystems now depends on the world’s more affluent population moving lower on the food chain. Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
  • 56. Chapter 10 The Global Land Rush Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / susoy
  • 57. New Geopolitics of Food Scarcity • Doubling of grain, soybean Large-scale Land Acquisitions by Project prices in 2007-08 revealed a Type, October 2008 – August 2009 new geopolitics of food— every country for itself: – Russia, Thailand, other grain exporting countries restricted or banned exports – Some importers turned to buying or leasing tracts of land in other countries on which to grow food – These land acquisitions, often called ―land grabs,‖ multiplied quickly Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Pawel Gaul
  • 58. Land Grabs: The Investors • Major investors include China, India, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, and United Arab Emirates • Beyond food security: Some investors—U.S., E.U., Southeast Asian companies—hope to produce biofuel crops • Other investors see land grabbing as a lucrative investment opportunity: Hedge funds, pension funds, university endowments, speculators Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / BanksPhotos
  • 59. Land Grabs: The Host Countries • Main targets are sub-Saharan African countries: – Ethiopia, Sudan, and South Sudan, all emergency food aid recipients – Also includes Kenya, Mali,Tanzania, and others – Land often leased for 25 to 99 years for less than $1 per acre per year • Significant interest in Southeast Asia… – Cambodia, Laos, Philippines, Indonesia • …in Latin America… – Brazil, Argentina • …and the former Soviet Union – Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Bob Randall
  • 60. Selected Examples of Land Deals Target Country Description Brazil China’s Chongqing Grain Group reportedly harvesting soybeans on some 500,000 acres in Bahia state Cambodia Singapore-based HLH Group farming corn on 35,000-acre, 70-year lease Ethiopia Saudi billionaire’s agribusiness firm leasing 24,700 acres for rice in Gambella region; plans to obtain another 716,000 acres Russia South Korea’s Hyundai Heavy Industries growing corn, oats, wheat, and soybeans to ship home on two farms totaling 40,000 acres Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / zoran simin
  • 61. Ethiopia as Microcosm • Farmers, indigenous people often find out about deals only as they are forced from their land – By early 2012, more than 1 million Ethiopians forcibly relocated by their government • Informal land rights make it difficult for people to protest • Projects using highly-mechanized, industrial agriculture; few jobs for local people • Food produced most often shipped to investor’s home country, contributing nothing to the local food supply • Land grabs for agriculture are also necessarily water grabs Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / BanksPhotos
  • 62. The Land Rush Is On • As more land is acquired and local people are deprived of jobs and land, ranks of the hungry may swell • Hostility of local people to land grabs is the rule, not the exception • Rising political instability is a serious concern—may contribute to already growing list of failing states These land acquisitions are an integral part of a global power struggle for control of the earth’s land and water resources. Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Bob Randall
  • 63. Chapter 11 Can We Prevent a Food Breakdown? Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
  • 64. Toward a More Stable Food System Demand Side Supply Side • Stabilize population • Conserve soil • Eradicate poverty • Increase water • Reduce excessive meat productivity consumption • Fill the yield gap • Eliminate biofuels • Stabilize climate mandates If we tackle both sides of the food equation, we can rebuild world grain stocks, improving food security. Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Niko Vujevic
  • 65. Stabilizing Population and Eradicating Poverty • School lunch programs Female Secondary Education and Total help children, especially Fertility Rates girls, stay in school • Girls who stay in school longer are likely to have fewer children • Reducing family size helps lift families out of poverty • Malnutrition is found less often in smaller families Efforts to eliminate poverty and slow population growth reinforce each other. Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Viorika
  • 66. Supply Solutions Soil Conservation Measures Return highly erodible land to grass Terracing Plant tree shelterbelts Terracing Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand Strip cropping No-till farming No-till farming Photo Credit: USDA ARS Photo Credit: USDA/Dave Clark
  • 67. Supply Solutions Water Conservation Measures Use more efficient irrigation techniques (e.g. drip irrigation) Use more water-efficient crops, such as wheat instead Drip Irrigation of rice Photo Credit: USDA/Pete Mortimer Move down the food chain Price water to encourage efficiency Recycle water Photo Credit: USDA ARS
  • 68. Case Study: Raising Grain Yields in Malawi • 2005 drought left many people hungry or starving Corn Yields in Malawi, 1961-2011 • Government, with international support, provided farmers fertilizer and seed subsidies • Corn harvest nearly doubled in 2 years; farmers’ incomes grew and they were able to export some grain With economic incentives and access to modern inputs, farmers in sub-Saharan Africa can easily double yields. Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Sharon Day
  • 69. Stabilize Climate • Need to cut carbon emissions 80% worldwide • Spur shift to clean energy economy by restructuring taxes to incorporate indirect costs of fossil fuels – Increase carbon taxes, reduce income taxes • Eliminate fossil fuels subsidies Time is our scarcest resource. Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / pamspix
  • 70. Plan B Carbon Dioxide Emissions Reduction Goals
  • 71. Harnessing the Wind • Centerpiece of Plan B World Cumulative Installed Wind Power Capacity, 1980-2011 energy economy • Growing number of places get a large share of electricity from wind: ‒ Germany: 4 states over 45% ‒ Denmark: more than 25% nationally ‒ United States: South Dakota and Iowa ~ 20% Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / monap
  • 72. Solar Power Heating Up World Cumulative Solar Photovoltaics • Sunlight hitting the earth in 1 Installations, 1998-2011 hour could power global economy for 1 year • Solar power in Europe can now satisfy the electricity needs of some 15 million households • With 24,700 MW of PV, Germany has twice as much solar installed as number two Italy Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / manwolste
  • 73. Geothermal: Energy from the Earth • Kenya now gets one fifth World Cumulative Installed Geothermal of its electricity from Power Capacity, 1950-2010 geothermal energy • Indonesia is shooting for 9,500 megawatts of geothermal generating capacity by 2025, which would meet 56% of current electricity needs • Potential geothermal capacity worldwide could power the entire world economy nearly two times over Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Animean
  • 74. Restructuring Transport U.S. Motor Gasoline Consumption, 1950-2012 • Cities emphasizing rail and bus rapid transit need fewer cars • Plug-in hybrid and all- electric vehicles can run primarily on emissions- free electricity • Good news: U.S. gasoline use dropped 11% from 2007 peak to 2012, trend likely to continue Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / mm88
  • 75. Redefining Security • Historically, security has been defined mostly in military terms • But today climate volatility, emerging water shortages, spreading hunger, and failing states are the new threats to survival • Food security is not just in the hands of agricultural departments • The challenge is to reorder fiscal priorities to match these new dangers Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
  • 76. A Wartime Mobilization • We have the technologies necessary to prevent a food breakdown– what is needed now is the political will to do so • Saving civilization will require urgent action on a large scale, but we’ve mobilized quickly before • Upon entering World War II, the U.S. mobilized resources and completely restructured its economy within months Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
  • 77. Let’s Get to Work Saving civilization is not a spectator sport. —Lester R. Brown • Preventing a food breakdown requires a huge political effort undertaken on many fronts and with a fierce sense of urgency • Make sure your elected officials know what’s important – The overriding priority is redefining security and reallocating fiscal resources accordingly • Take action in an area that concerns or excites you Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / kryczka
  • 78. To learn more about this mobilization… read World on the Edge by Lester R. Brown. More information and full-text copies of our publications are available at www.earth-policy.org
  • 79. To learn more about the global food situation… read Full Planet, Empty Plates: The New Geopolitics of Food Scarcity by Lester R. Brown. The book and supporting data sets are available at www.earth-policy.org