eMarketer Webinar: Online Holiday Shopping Forecast and Trends 2016

2. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Story of online Holiday 2016 has two big themes Retail ecommerce sales will continue to skyrocket Brick-and-mortar retailers will build stronger bridges to online shoppers Source: commons.Wikimedia.org Source: commons.Wikimedia.org

4. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Overall retail sales growth will be moderate, but ecommerce will rise rapidly this holiday season  Retail ecommerce sales will jump 17.2% for the season, the highest rate since 2011  Retail sales will rebound slightly, up 3.3% from a weak 2015 #eMwebinar

5. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. 2015 was a strong year for retail ecommerce, but 2016 will be even better  Retail ecommerce sales will grow 16.1% in 2016  Ecommerce’s share of US retail sales will increase to 8.2% in 2016 #eMwebinar

10. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. One big factor powering US retail ecommerce is the rapid growth of retail mcommerce  US retail mcommerce will grow 43.2% in 2016  Mcommerce’s share of retail ecommerce sales will hit 29.1% in 2016 #eMwebinar

11. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. The largest part of mcommerce growth will come from purchases via smartphones  US smartphone retail mcommerce will surge 78.3% in 2016, an improvement over a spectacular 2015  2016 will be the first year that smartphones account for more than half of US mcommerce sales #eMwebinar

13. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. The Amazon Effect  Amazon captured 36% of US ecommerce sales on Cyber Monday in 2015 (Source: Slice Intelligence)  Amazon’s share of holiday ecommerce will rise from 26% in 2015 to 28% to 30% in 2016 (Source: NetElixir)  Amazon’s ecommerce sales grew 18.4% in trailing 12 months (through Q2 2016) vs. roughly 15% for ecommerce overall in the US (Source: eMarketer and Amazon)  63 million US consumers using Prime as of June 2016 (Source: Consumer Intelligence Research Group)  Nearly 70% of Amazon shoppers in Holiday 2015 made a purchase on a mobile device (Source: Amazon) #eMwebinar

17. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Total retail sales will improve in 2016 vs. a weak 2015, but won’t herald an era of fast growth  eMarketer expects that overall US retail sales will grow 2.9% this year, up from a 1.4% increase in 2015 #eMwebinar

19. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Car sales boosted retail sales from 2012 to 2015, but haven’t done so this year  H1 retail sales without gas stations or auto dealers hovered around a 3% gain between H1 2013 and H1 2015, but growth was stronger in H1 2016

21. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. The 2016 holiday season should see advances in four areas that bind online and offline commerce 1. Better fulfillment 2. Better local advertising products 3. Local digital merchandising 4. Better offline attribution #eMwebinar

23. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Demand for variable fulfillment options is growing More than half of back-to-school shoppers in 2016 planned to use buy online, pick up in-store fulfillment options #eMwebinar

24. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. In-store pickup is spreading, but retailers are still working out the kinks 42% Of retailers reported offering in-store pickup, but nearly half of those reported that it was not working well yet Source: Boston Retail Partners, June 2016 #eMwebinar

25. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Retailers in 2015 pushed the cutoff date for holiday deliveries right up to Christmas  In 2014, 39% of retailers had a cutoff date of December 21 or later  In 2015, 54% had a cutoff date of December 21 or later #eMwebinar

31. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Local Inventory Ads (LIAs) have become more prominent  Require real-time inventory visibility and integration with point-of-sale and marketing systems  5% to 7% of total Google Shopping clicks now come from LIAs (Source: Merkle)  Clickthrough rates 50% higher for LIAs than for standard mobile PLAs (Source: Merkle) #eMwebinar

32. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. LIAs could play a pivotal role in the final days before Christmas “One week in particular that’s always a little slow for us is the week right before Christmas. Even after the shipping cutoff, in those few days right before Christmas, [LIAs are] a great opportunity to get out there and drive people into your stores.” —Jared DeSisto, Senior Manager, SEM and Feeds, Merkle #eMwebinar

34. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Retailers can import offline information to create more personalized digital merchandising “Retailers already have my offline data—they know what I like; they know the prices I like; they know that I’m a female; they know how old I am, all of that. They can import the information and utilize both the offline and the online behavioral data to show to me the kinds of products [like those] I’m searching.” —Madeline Ng, Product Marketing Lead, BloomReach #eMwebinar

36. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. 4. Better local attribution: Many new ways to track offline purchases back to online ads  Facebook – Offline conversions API – Store visits  Google – Offline conversion and store visits tracking in AdWords – Attribution 360  Others #eMwebinar

41. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Conversational platforms are releasing commerce-related bots and extensions  Facebook Messenger introduced: – Conversations with brands, mostly around clienteling or customer service (2015) – Chatbots and send/receive API (April 2016)  Kik introduced a bot store in April 2016  Apple will release iOS 10 next week with: – Siri extensions that connect queries to apps via an API – iMessage apps  Alexa had 1,400 skills (as of July 2016) #eMwebinar

42. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Conversational commerce is generating buzz, but the big impact won’t happen until 2017 “There are a lot of retailers who are very interested in this, but they’re waiting on the sidelines to see it develop a little more before they plunge in. So, I’m not 100% convinced that this holiday season is going to be a really massive time for conversational commerce, but I would put it on the next holiday.” —Kent Deverell, CEO, Fluid #eMwebinar

43. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. 2. Augmented Reality: Pokémon Go is just one aspect of a burgeoning field Pokémon Go:  500 million downloads (Source: Niantic, 9/7/2016)  $440 million in revenue (Source: Sensor Tower)  On 12% of US smartphones (Source: Sensor Tower) (Images source: www.pokemon.com)

44. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Pokémon Go has the potential to become an advertising platform (Images source: Toru Hanai/Reuters via Techinsider.io)  McDonald’s Japan has bought sponsored gyms for 400 restaurants and Pokéstops for its 2,500 other restaurants  Softbank in Japan will have 3,700 stores as a sponsored location #eMwebinar

45. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Most Pokémon players would be interested in some form of sponsored content in the game  The most acceptable sponsored content: – free coins – redeemable items following a purchase – unique game items available at physical stores  59% would be open to sponsored stops or gyms

46. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Interest in sponsored location in the US seems muted “Right now I am not sure that we would have anybody in the holiday season advertising within Pokémon.” —Scott Shamberg, US President, Performics #eMwebinar

48. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Augmented reality as a whole has benefitted from the awareness generated by Pokémon Go “The understanding and interest in augmented reality has spiked since the launch of Pokémon Go. Now people understand what it is, what it does and why it’s so cool and fun.” —Jennifer Tidy, CMO, Modiface #eMwebinar

50. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Recap  Overall US retail sales will grow by a tepid 3.1% during the 2016 holiday season  US retail ecommerce sales will expand by 17.2%  US retailers will rely on four advances that will help them bridge the online/offline gap: – Better fulfillment; better local advertising products; local digital merchandising; better offline attribution  Conversational commerce and augmented reality have generated recent buzz, but their holiday impact will be minimal #eMwebinar

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56. ©2016 AKAMAI | FASTER FORWARDTM Akamai is your trusted partner during the holidays & 365 days a year Instant Global Access To 100% of your digital content Fast and Secure Optimizing every port and protocol Maximizing User Experiences Across Desktop, Tablet and Mobile web and apps Intelligent Automation, Customization & Control So you can focus on maximizing YOUR business

57. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Learn more about digital marketing with an eMarketer corporate subscription Around 200 eMarketer reports are published each year. Here are some recent reports you may be interested in: Q&A Session Made possible by You will receive an email tomorrow with a link to view the deck and webinar recording. To learn more: www.emarketer.com/products 800-405-0844 or webinars@emarketer.com Yory Wurmser Online Holiday Shopping Forecast and Trends 2016  Back-to-School Shopping Preview: The Shift to Ecommerce Accelerates  Facebook Messenger: Strategies for Customer Service, Ecommerce, Content and Advertising  US Mcommerce Update 2016: Behind the Rapid Growth  US Holiday Shopping Preview 2016: Absorbing the Lessons of 2016

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