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eMarketer Webinar: Digital Ad Trends—What's Behind the Spending Boom

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Join eMarketer Principal Analyst David Hallerman as he discusses the major developments in US online, mobile and social ad spending, and examines 2012’s key areas of growth and trends to watch.

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eMarketer Webinar: Digital Ad Trends—What's Behind the Spending Boom

  1. 1. M A R C H 2 2, 2 0 1 2 Digital Ad Trends— What’s Behind the Spending Boom Sponsored by:David HallermanPrincipal Analyst ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  2. 2. What we’ll look at today… Online ad spend: growth factors Consolidation: one form of imbalance Ad formats: imbalance skews the picture Video, video: cross-channel central Social: its true place in the scheme of things Mobile: opportunity but also imbalance Three numbers: 23.3 and 24.1 and 15.2 ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  3. 3. Questions about why eMarketerprojects ad spending growth at 23.3%
  4. 4. Total digital adspending(what’s creating the growth)
  5. 5. Total onlinead spendingmakes hugegainsannually, butits growthrate isslowing ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  6. 6. Eight of 15researchersestimatespending in2012 at $35billion orhigher ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  7. 7. One factor:This year’selections willhelp onlinead spendinggrow byabout thesame rate aslast year ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  8. 8. Key reasons for total market growth The “more” factors. That is, more…  Time: consumer time on digital rising rapidly  Inventory: a result of more visits, sites, time  Measurable: the need to be accountable  Video: professional content to support ads  Mobile: time, usage and expectations  Brands: entry points increasing  Dollars: budget focus makes digital centralTwitter – #eMwebinar ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  9. 9. Digital’srising shareof totalmedia adspending isfinallystarting tomatch mediausage time ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  10. 10. About 24%of mediatime isinternettime, butmultitaskingandinattentionmean not alltime is agood time toadvertise ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  11. 11. Consolidation(the game continues butplayers change)
  12. 12. Bottom line questions… ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  13. 13. Turn into thebig bucks? ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  14. 14. Or turn out to be just small change? ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  15. 15. Or slip awaylike a handfulof water? ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  16. 16. The top ad-selling companies areshifting places ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  17. 17. Five companies will get more than two-thirds of digital ad revenues in 2012 ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  18. 18. Consolidationin the onlinead businessis not new,though—therich growricher, butunevenly Twitter – #eMwebinar ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  19. 19. Realitycheck:Forgetgrowthrates;instead seeGoogle wayon top andcontinuedconsolidationoverall ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  20. 20. Share of total internet ad revenuesamong top 10 ad-selling companies 2002 2004 2006 2008 72% 71% 69% 72% 2009 2010 2011 2012 71% 72% 72% ??% Source: IAB/PwC, 2002-2011 ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  21. 21. Theimbalancedmarket cansometimesbe a littlecrazy-makingfor manyotherad-sellingcompanies ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  22. 22. Ad formats(several imbalanced arenas)
  23. 23. Video adspendingwill jumpmore thantwice asmuch as anyother formator theoverallmarket
  24. 24. But by dollarshare,there’ssearch—andthen there’severythingelse Twitter – #eMwebinar
  25. 25. Search market share among top 4 sitesis probably not news
  26. 26. However, search growth has become atwo-company competition
  27. 27. Is search a model for other forms ofdigital advertising?
  28. 28. The digital space mixes branding with…
  29. 29. …direct response marketing, whichoften means…
  30. 30. …even a single ad can dissolve theclassic division between the two
  31. 31. Display advertising(a diverse market)
  32. 32. Displaydollars in2015 willincrease bymore thanhalf from2012—butgrowth ratewill declinefrom 24.1%to 10.8%
  33. 33. Video shareup, bannershare down,sponsorshipa potentiallyprofitableniche Twitter – #eMwebinar ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  34. 34. Significant disparity of display revenuegrowth at top 5 companies ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  35. 35. However, display spending is lessconsolidated than the total market
  36. 36. Impressions match money: The not-top-5get about half of display impressions
  37. 37. Weighing the imbalances in digital adspending helps focus budget choices
  38. 38. Display growth without social andmobile paints a different picture
  39. 39. Three more ways of parsing the currentdisplay market
  40. 40. The video focus(cross-channel possibilities)
  41. 41. Even asonline videoadvertisinggrowth ratesslow,spendingwill double inonly twoyears Twitter – #eMwebinar
  42. 42. Display’s overall market growth at 24.1%is due mainly to video’s strength…
  43. 43. …where about half or more of marketersexpect to increase spending in 2012
  44. 44. Keyindicators:Comparinggrowth vs.dollarsshowsmobile videogaining morebut moremoney goeson thedesktop
  45. 45. As seen on the web? (Nah!) TV’s poweris still unmatched for many goals ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  46. 46. In a typical week, US consumers watchvideo mainly on TV, however…
  47. 47. TV forever? Containers may change, butthe content basically remains the same
  48. 48. Social and mobile(beyond the hype)
  49. 49. Social siteswill seegreater adgrowth in2012 thanthe overallmarket —43% vs. 23%(but social ismuch morethan justadvertising) Twitter – #eMwebinar ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  50. 50. Moremarketersplan displayspendingincreases onsocial mediathan, say, oncontentpublishersites ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  51. 51. Facebook isthe social adrevenueleader, butother socialsites areslowlygaining on it ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  52. 52. The socialspace islarge andgettinglarger —does thatmean it’s duefor shakeout? ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  53. 53. Mobile adspendingwill rise from$1.45 billionlast year to$2.61 billionthis year,driven byeverythingbut textmessaging ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  54. 54. About half of mobile spending went toGoogle — far more than even Apple ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  55. 55. The mobilemarket ismainlysearch, witha large sliceslice ofbanners andrich media Twitter – #eMwebinar ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  56. 56. And mobile search is mainly Google(another huge cluster) ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  57. 57. Mobile display: one more market that’sconcentrated, but a bit less so ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  58. 58. Getting your share of the mobile marketoften means playing with the big dogs
  59. 59. Conclusions ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  60. 60. Conclusions:Ad spending growth is uneven, but… The 23.3% projection for 2012 is for the overall market. But the overall market is imbalanced. Some of the imbalanced elements:  search nearly 50% of whole, and growing at 27%  video growth at 55%, but makes up only 8% of total  five companies will get nearly 67% of ad revenues  social dominated by Facebook, with 70% of category ad dollars  mobile display dominated by three networks (60%), and mobile search is nearly all Google (95%) Display online, and video in particular, offer more opportunities for lessening the imbalance than does search, social or mobile. But note how display growth (sans social and mobile) at 15.2% more accurately represents the mainstream online ad market. ©2012 eMarketer Inc.
  61. 61. Consumers Reward Brand Transparency Lack Favorability Towards Impact of Transparency on OBA Concept Perceptions of Online Advertising Like 55% Do not like 51% Neutral I would be inclined to I would be more do more business inclined to click on an with ad advertiser or advertisement that publisher who gives gives me the option to me the option to opt- opt-out of OBA out of OBABASE: Total Qualified Respondents (n=1004)Q75 Please indicate the degree to which you agree or disagree with each of the following statements related to online advertising.
  62. 62. Addressing Consumer Concerns with DAA- Compliant Self Regulation DAA EvolutionThe Digital Advertising Self-Regulatory Program Advertising Preferences IconAlliance (DAA) For Behavioral Advertising DAA – AdChoices Program Growth and News  Substantial growth: 400+ companies comply  900 billion compliant impressions per month  All top-15 global advertisers participate, including: American Express, AT&T, Disney, General Motors, Kraft Foods, Microsoft and Walmart  Feb, 2012: The DAA announced that it will immediately begin work to add support for browser based DNT header signals. Planning to integrate by end of year.
  63. 63. How Does DAA Compliance Work? Advertising User Experience1. A simple ad tag 2. If clicked the icon 3. Consumers have option to inserts the DAA icon launches privacy click to Preference Manager notice inside the ad and opt out of selected tracking networks a
  64. 64. Consumer favorability increases 50% with “Powered By TRUSTe” DAA Compliance Impact on Feelings Towards the AdvertiserBASE: Total Qualified RespondentsQ935/Q950 And, how does having this information available make you feel about the advertiser?
  65. 65. About TRUSTeLeader in Privacy Management Solutions  14 years of privacy experience  Robust technology platform  #1 privacy brand & trustmarkComprehensive Solution Suite  All media and devices  Global coverage  Self- and full-service options Leading Provider to Leading Brands  Over 5,000 clients  Leading DAA AdChoices Icon Provider  Over 100 Billion DAA Compliant Ads Served
  66. 66. Q&A Session Learn more about digital advertising with an eMarketer corporate subscriptionDigital Ad Trends—What’s Behind the Over 120 reports are published each year. Spending Boom Following are a few of the recent ones focusing on spending:  US Digital Ad Spending: Key Trends for 2012  Local Online Advertising: Digital Trends, Challenges and OpportunitiesDavid Hallerman  Western Europe Mobile Ad SpendingYou will receive an email  Western Europe Digital Advertising: Spending and Trends tomorrow with a link to view the deck and webinar recording. To learn more: www.emarketer.com/products Sponsored by: 800-405-0844 or webinars@emarketer.com TRUSTe ©2012 eMarketer Inc.