1. Carrefour Online-to-Store study
Understanding the complete marketing ROI on personal
computer sales for Carrefour
Google Confidential and Proprietary 1

2. Executive Summary
25% of Carrefour in-store PC sales are driven by marketing
1 - Among those, online advertising accounts for 43%
Over 10% of in-store sales are driven by website traffic
2 - During peak periods, website traffic drives 25% of in-store sales
Each € invested in online advertising delivers €7.85 in sales
3 - Online advertising is the most cost-effective advertising driver, with an ROI twice as high as the
average for all marketing drivers
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3. Research Objectives & Scope
Objectives
• Understand the drivers of business outcomes and analyse the impact of Carrefour’s media
investment onto personal computers sales (desktops, laptops & netbooks).
• Identify the optimal personal computers marketing mix allocation to generate greater sales from the
same level of investment
Scope
• As part of this study, the personal computers category (desktops, laptops & netbooks) was analysed
across both the online and in store channels at the national level.
• 97,8% of the computer sales take place in-store, and 2,2% online.
• This study quantified the drivers of three key business outcomes: sales units, website traffic and
query volume (GQV).
• The data time period of this analysis spanned from July 2008 to June 2010 (104 weeks).
*GQV reflects the number of queries that have been done for a particular term, relative to the total
number of queries done on Google over time.
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4. Situation Analysis – 1/2
Personal Computer Sales
• Carrefour’s personal computers sales units have
grown almost 16% over the period of this study
(July 2008 – June 2010).
Website Traffic Trends
• Over the analysis period, average price trends
declined across all products and channels.
In value, in store PC sales grew by 2% and online Website Traffic
+106%
sales by 10%
Carrefour Query Volume & Website Traffic
• Online search interest for the term ‘Carrefour’
has slightly declined, however total site traffic to
www.carrefour.fr has doubled over the time period
of this study.
06/07/2008
06/08/2008
06/09/2008
06/10/2008
06/11/2008
06/12/2008
06/01/2009
06/02/2009
06/03/2009
06/04/2009
06/05/2009
06/06/2009
06/07/2009
06/08/2009
06/09/2009
06/10/2009
06/11/2009
06/12/2009
06/01/2010
06/02/2010
06/03/2010
06/04/2010
06/05/2010
06/06/2010
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5. Situation Analysis – 2/2
Competitive ad spend
Jan 2009 – Dec 2010 (source: TNS, gross spend, computers category)
Competition / Marketing spend
FNAC 41,32
Carrefour is the 2nd player in terms of personal
computers spend and catalogue circulation CARREFOUR MAGASINS 19,46
relative to its competitors. CONFORAMA 13,45
E.LECLERC MAGASINS 10,5
Media Investment / catalogues AUCHAN 5,87
DARTY 3,34
• During the data sample period, Carrefour’s
BOULANGER ELECTRODOMEST. 3,01
total investment for personal computers has
remained stable.
• The Personal Computer investment represents Carrefour Historical Mix
2% of Carrefour’s total media investment. July 2008 – June 2010 (net spend, source: TNS, Google, FLE)
• Certain channels such as digital*, TV and Catalogues
Display
Ads
radio have seen sizeable increases. 23,4% 11,6%
Paid Magazine
• Overall catalogue circulation has increased by Search 3,3%
1,7%
12%.
TV
60,0%
*Digital comprises of Display Ads and Paid Search.

6. Methodology & Analytical Approach
• Applied MarketShare’s rigorous, market-tested econometric approach on a data set of
thousands of data points across spend, sales, competitive and macro elements
Regression Analysis Example
The “Best Fit” Process is repeated, simultaneously, for all drivers
Two Driver Example
Sales (Y) ==αα(base sales) **XX1 (Paid Search Investment)*(Paid(Paid Lift Factor)Investment) (Paid Search (TV Lift
Sales (Y) (base sales) 1 (TV Investment) (TV lift factor) X 2 Search Search * X2 (TV Investment) Lift Factor)
Factor)
114 112
112
110
110
108
108
Sales
Sales
106
TV Lift Factor = Paid Search Lift
106 Paid Search
.06 Factor = 0.06 Factor = .03
TV Lift Factor = 0.03
Lift
104
104
102
102
100 100
5 25 45 65 85 105 5 25 45 65 85 105
TV Investment
Paid Search Investment Paid Search Investment
TV Investment
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7. Methodology & Analytical Approach
MarketShare evaluated all drivers of Carrefour’s personal computers sales. We built
predictive dynamic models that accurately estimate Carrefour sales.
Seasonality
Holidays Competitive
Media
Economic Competitive
Factors Paid Search
Competitive
Pricing
Catalogues
Carrefour
PC Sales
Website
Catalogues
Traffic
Non Personal Google
Computer Query
Advertising Volume
Paid
Offline
Online Search
Media
Display
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9. Methodology: Variables considered for Carrefour
Legend
Business
Online world In Store world Outcome
+ Driver
Online Traditional Media & - Driver
Search online display ads
(PC & Other)
Pre-Christmas & Width of line
Back to School indicates size
Paid Search & SEO of driver
(PC & Other) Holiday
Email
Short term
Web traffic on In Store Sales Promo days
Carrefour.fr
Online
Sales Competitive
Media Summer and
Price, Base Sales,
Christmas
Seasonality & Economic
Holiday
Factors
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10. Project Results: In-store Sales
What are the key drivers of in-store personal computers sales?
MarketShare Confidential and Proprietary 10

11. Drivers of In Store Sales
10% of in store sales comes as a result of Carrefour’s web traffic.
Sales Units
10%
of in store conversions driven by
web traffic on carrefour.fr
Seasonality Radio* Promo Libre
& Holidays 1.3% 1.1%
5.9%
Display
TV
Ads
Price Catalogues Magazine* 0.8%
0.7%
11.6% 8.1% 2.7%
Base sales: 57.6%
juil.-08
nov.-08
déc.-08
janv.-09
juin-09
juil.-09
nov.-09
déc.-09
janv.-10
juin-10
mars-09
avr.-09
mars-10
avr.-10
sept.-08
oct.-08
févr.-09
mai-09
sept.-09
oct.-09
févr.-10
mai-10
août-08
août-09
* Non Personal Computer Advertising – Halo effect ** Media Investment during limited periods of time
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13. Trends in In Store Conversions driven by Website Traffic
Largest increase in in-store conversions occurred during the first quarter of 2010.
Evolution Q3 2008 – Q2 2010
Q1 2010
In Store Sales Website Traffic (Visits)
Sales Units YOY %
Period Units driven by
Change
Web Traffic 3 000
Q4 2009
Q3 2008 3%
Q4 2008 9%
Q1 2009 7% 2 500
In Store
Q2 2009 6% Sales driven
Q3 2009 10% 224.9% by Web 2 000
Q4 2009 24% 181.0% Traffic
Web Traffic
Q1 2010 25% 242.6%
(Visits)
Q2 2010 15% 163.2% 1 500
Q4 2008
1 000
500
0
06/07/2008
27/07/2008
17/08/2008
07/09/2008
28/09/2008
19/10/2008
09/11/2008
30/11/2008
21/12/2008
11/01/2009
01/02/2009
22/02/2009
15/03/2009
05/04/2009
26/04/2009
17/05/2009
07/06/2009
28/06/2009
19/07/2009
09/08/2009
30/08/2009
20/09/2009
11/10/2009
01/11/2009
22/11/2009
13/12/2009
03/01/2010
24/01/2010
14/02/2010
07/03/2010
28/03/2010
18/04/2010
09/05/2010
30/05/2010
20/06/2010
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14. Project Results: Online Sales
What are the key drivers of online personal computers sales?
What are the personal computers media effects on website traffic?
MarketShare Confidential and Proprietary 14

15. Understanding the Drivers of Online Personal Computers Sales
Paid Search and Magazine are responsible for driving 25% of revenue – nearly
50% of all sales driven by marketing
57% of Carrefour sales 0,5%
2,0% 1,4%
are non marketing drivers 2,6%
4,4%
5,1%
12,3%
14,8%
9,5% Paid Search and Magazine
10,4% are the biggest drivers of
37.0% online marketing sales.
43% of Carrefour sales are
influenced by Marketing
Base Price Seasonality Paid Magazines* Print* Catalogues TV* Radio* Display OOH*
Sales & Holidays Search* Ads*
Non PC: 11.9% Non PC: 1.4%
Non PC: 14.6% PC: 0.3% PC: 1.1% Non PC: 1.3%
PC: 0.2% PC: 0.1%
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* Non Personal Computer Advertising – Halo effect

16. Project Results: ROI of media spend
What is the ROI on Carrefour Marketing?
MarketShare Confidential and Proprietary 16

17. Carrefour Personal Computers – Return on Investment
Digital marketing is the most
cost efficient media in the
The ROI of each media is based upon the
media investment and return . mix.
9
8
7
6
5
Avg.
4
ROI:
3
€3.52
2
1
2,46 € 5,37 € 7,85 €
0
TV Magazine Online
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18. Appendix
Background info
MarketShare Confidential and Proprietary 18

19. Methodology: Model Fit
Sales Units Model Average
30 000 Prediction Error = 4%
25 000
20 000
15 000
10 000
5 000
0
Actual Fitted
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20. About MarketShare Partners
World-Class Marketing Science + Real-World Industry Expertise
All data analysis and econometric modelling was conducted by
• Strategic analytics firm deploying industry’s most advanced analytic
models for marketing effectiveness, ROI and allocation
• Reputation of being the most innovative firm in the category, with
focus on advanced math, thought leadership and action
• Significant experience with new media, including search, social
networks and display
• Heavy emphasis on application of analytics to make better decisions
going forward
• An independently owned company delivering 100% objectivity in
assessing marketing effectiveness.
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