Keeping Current Matters slides 3.21.20
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Slides from Dave Savage interview with David Childers on 3-21-2020
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Keeping Current Matters slides 3.21.20
- 2. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 June 2004 June 2005 June 2006 June 2007 June 2008 June 2009 June 2010 June 2011 June 2012 June 2013 June 2014 June 2015 June 2016 June 2017 June 2018 June 2019 Today Historic Data for the MORTGAGE CREDIT AVAILABILITY INDEX (a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association) MBA Housing Bubble Today
- 3. Black Knight 8.6% 6.5% 8.5% 8.7% 12.5% 11.4% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 4.4% 5.2% 5.5% 6.4% 4.8% 4.7% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 The 6 years leading up to the housing crash The last 6 years Annual Home Price Appreciation
- 4. NAR Months Inventory of Homes for Sale 8.2 3.1 2007 Today
- 5. Total Home Equity Cashed Out by Refinance in Billions Year Dollars 2005 $263B 2006 $321B 2007 $240B Total $824B Year Dollars 2017 $71B 2018 $87B 2019 $74B* Total $232B Then… Now… Freddie Mac *Using the first 3 quarter estimates from Freddie Mac and estimating $20B for the 4th quarter
- 6. Percent of the median income needed to purchase the median-priced home 21.2% 25.4% 14.8% 1985-2000 2006 TODAY Zillow & NAR
- 7. How Has the Housing Market Been Impacted by Previous Stock Market Crashes?
- 8. -51% -4.6% -10% -4.1% S&P 500 Correction 10/2007 to 3/2009 Annual Home Price DEPRECIATION Housing & Mortgage Crash 2007 2008 2009 Black Knight & S&P 500
- 9. “What 9/11 has in common with what is happening today is that this shock has also generated fear, angst and anxiety among the general public. People avoided crowds then as they believed another terrorist attack was coming and are acting the same today to avoid getting sick. The same parts of the economy are under pressure ─ airlines, leisure, hospitality, restaurants, entertainment ─ consumer discretionary services in general.” David Rosenberg Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc.’s Chief Economist
- 10. -45% 8.6% 6.6% 8.5% 2000 2001 2002 S&P 500 Correction 9/2000 to 10/2002 Annual Home Price APPRECIATION Dot.com & 9/11 Crash Black Knight & S&P 500
- 11. Recession DOES NOT Equal Housing Crisis
- 12. “With the sudden economic stop, and with many states shutting down by closing down schools, bars and restaurants…my view is the US economy is now in a recession (started in March 2020), and GDP will decline sharply in Q2 (as Goldman Sachs is forecasting). The length of the recession will depend on the course of the pandemic.” Bill McBride Calculated Risk
- 13. -0.2% -5% 3% 4% -7.0% -5.0% -3.0% -1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% Quarter 3 Quarter 4 “…with further strong gains in early 2021.” Goldman Sachs GDP Forecast on 3/17/2020 Quarter 2Quarter 1
- 14. “We do not expect a repeat of the severe recession of 2008-2009, because the virus and oil shocks are not endemic to the financial system but are, rather, external. Once the virus infection rate peaks, we expect a recovery to gain momentum into the final quarter of the year and especially into 2021.” Wells Fargo Investment Institute 3/17/2020
- 15. 6.1% 3.5% -1.9% 6.6% -19.7% 1980 1981 2001 HOME PRICE CHANGE During Last 5 Recessions 1991 2008 CoreLogic National Home Price Index
- 16. Will we see a rise in the number of foreclosures?
- 17. The Federal Housing Administration indicated it is enacting an “immediate foreclosure and eviction moratorium for single family homeowners with FHA-insured mortgages” for the next 60 days. The Federal Housing Finance Agency announced it is directing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to suspend foreclosures and evictions for “at least 60 days.”
- 18. Total Home Equity Cashed Out by Refinance in Billions Year Dollars 2005 $263B 2006 $321B 2007 $240B Total $824B Year Dollars 2017 $71B 2018 $87B 2019 $74B* Total $232B Then… Now… Freddie Mac *Using the first 3 quarter estimates from Freddie Mac and estimating $20B for the 4th quarter
- 19. National Association of Realtors 18.2 17.8 17.6 17 17.4 17.1 16.2 15.9 16.3 16.3 16.6 16.5 16.1 15.6 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.5 14.8 June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December January Payment as a % of Income Historic Norm 21.2%
Notas do Editor
- https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/newsroom https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/research-and-economics/single-family-research/mortgage-credit-availability-index
- https://www.blackknightinc.com/black-knights-december-2019-mortgage-monitor-2/
- nar.realtor
- http://zillow.mediaroom.com/2018-09-06-Mortgage-Burden-Exceeds-Historic-Levels-in-10-of-the-Largest-U-S-Markets https://www.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/hai-01-2020-housing-affordability-index-2020-03-13.pdf
- https://www.blackknightinc.com/black-knights-december-2019-mortgage-monitor-2/
- https://business.financialpost.com/investing/david-rosenberg-stop-looking-to-2008-this-crisis-is-more-like-9-11
- https://www.blackknightinc.com/black-knights-december-2019-mortgage-monitor-2/
- https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/03/sunday-night-futures-limit-down.html
- https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/03/sunday-night-futures-limit-down.html
- https://www.wellsfargo.com/investment-institute/ia-quarter-world-stood-still/
- https://www.corelogic.com/blog/2019/03/housing-recessions-and-recoveries.aspx
- https://www.hud.gov/press/press_releases_media_advisories/HUD_No_20_042 https://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/Pages/FHFA-Suspends-Foreclosures-and-Evictions-for-Enterprise-Backed-Mortgages.aspx
- https://www.nar.realtor/blogs/economists-outlook/housing-affordability-in-december-2019