Climate Changes and Impacts: Possible Scenario up to 2100 Krešo Pandžić Meteorological and Hydrological Service, CROATIA

Content 1 Climate and climate system 2 Paleoclimate 3 Recent global warming 4 Precipitation amount trend 5 Snow and ice cover 6 Processes in the oceans 7 Climate extreme 8 Global climate scenario 9 Conclusion

Lithosphere and Biosphere Hydrosphere

CRIOSPHERE

GREENHOUSE EFFECT

- Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) - the burning of the fossil fuels - Kyoto Protocol - UN Climate Convention - EU Directives - IPCC Recommendations

RADIATIVE FORCING

2. Paleoclimate

Earth's Orbital Changes

Paleoclimate cycles

The Last Interglacial and the Arctic

The Last 1000 Years

3. Recent Global Warming

Recent Global Warming

3. Precipitation Amount Trend

Palmer’s Drought Severity Index

5. Snow and Ice Cover

March-April NH Snow Covering Area

CHANGE IN SEA ICE EXTENT Arctic Antarctic

ARCTIC Summer 1983 Summer 2003

6. Processes in the Oceans

PROCESSES IN THE OCEAN

Global sea surface anomalies - El Nino

7. Climate Extremes

Cold Extreme Decrease

Warm Extreme Increase

Extreme Hot Summer 2003 in Central Europe

Extreme Warm Summer 2003 in Croatia

Extreme Warm Winter 2006/2007 in Croatia

Number of Very Wet Day Increase

Sahel Recent Drought

8. Global Climate Scenario

Comprehensive Climate Models

CO 2 Temperature

GLOBAL WARMING PROJECTION

Decade Temperature Projection

REGIONAL TEMPERATURE PRPJECTION

European Temperature Projection

EUROPEAN PRECIPITATION PROJECTION

Frost Days Heat Waves Growing Season

Precipitation Intensity Dry Days

MORE HOT WEATHER

Sea Level Rise

Sea Level Rise

CO 2 Concentration Scenarios

8. Conclusion - Climate has been changed in the past in long time-scale (1000 years) - Recent global warming on a very short i.e. decade scale (10 to 100 years) - very probably (90 %) caused by man - some measure to limit CO 2 emission - Kyoto Protocol, UN Climate Convention, - IPCC - Political decisions are very important - Role of National Meteorological Service - Agencies for Environmental Protection - education of young people

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