2014 presentation on the economics of dry edible bean and field pea production by Jessica Johnson, Extension Educator - Ag Economics at the UNL Panhandle Research and Extension Center at Scottsbluff, NE

1. Stateline Bean Producers
Jessica Johnson
Asst. Extension Educator, Agricultural Economics
Panhandle Research and Extension Center

2. 2014 Nebraska Crop Budgets

3. 2014 Nebraska Crop Budgets
• Western Nebraska Budgets
– Alfalfa, corn, wheat, dry beans, millet,
dryland peas, sugarbeets and sunflowers
– Available online
http://cropwatch.unl.edu/economics/bud
gets
• Irrigated Pea Budget go.unl.edu/pagecon

4. 2014 W. Nebraska Crop Budgets
No-Till
Dryland
Budget # Yield Cost/Unit
Change
from „13
Millet 40 22 cwt. $8.72 NEW
Peas 43 35 bu. $5.75 NEW
Wheat 61-63 45-55 bu. $5.26 - $6.40 ↓4to↓10%
Irrigated Budget # Yield Cost/Unit
Alfalfa 12 6.6 tons $78.44 NEW
Corn
22
26
180 bu.
$4.04
$4.49
↓3%
Dry Beans 30-32 25 cwt.
$23.59-
$23.69
↓6-↑2%
Wheat 65-66 85-90 bu. $5.13 - $5.65 ↓3 to ↑7%
Peas N/A 60 bu. $7.24 NEW

5. 2014 Crop Budget
Prices of inputs were generally higher,
with some notable exceptions including
nitrogen and glyphosate
herbicides…increased land prices put
upward pressure on the cost of
production for all crops.
http://agecon.unl.edu/documents/2369805/5842081/1-22-
14.pdf/7ae6c72a-54aa-48e7-842b-7b5c4af4c0a2

6. Land Values

7. Reported Cash Rental Rates:
Center Pivot Irrigated Cropland
2013
Average
% Change
from 2012
High Low
Northwest 225 13 265 170
North 265 13 285 208
Northeast 379 15 477 302
Central 287 12 358 240
East 355 13 441 281
Southwest 269 14 325 210
South 313 12 363 259
Southeast 345 13 427 268
Source: 2013 UNL Nebraska Farm Real Estate Market Developments Survey

8. $0.00
$50.00
$100.00
$150.00
$200.00
$250.00
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Cash Rental Rates for the Northwest
District
Dryland Gravity Irrigated Center Pivot Irrigated

9. Cash Rent
• Rents should stabilize, or start down
• Rents are still determined by supply
and demand
• Tenants need to sharpen the pencil
• Landlords need to be understanding

10. 2014 Commodity Prices

11. @KW@C
610
630
650
670
690
710
730
11/1/13 12/1/13 1/1/14 2/1/14 3/1/14
- Wall Street Journal

12. Market Prices…
Futures
• 3/4/14 Dec. Corn $4.84
– Average. Panhandle Dec. Basis -0.32
– Expected Dec. Corn Price $4.53
• 3/4/14 Sept. HRW $6.83
– Average. Panhandle Sept. Basis -1.11
– Expected Sept. Wheat Price $5.72
• Dry Beans?
• Peas?

13. Dry Bean Prices
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
Pinto Bean Cash Price ($/cwt.)
Great Northern Bean Cash Price ($/cwt.)

16. 2014 Bean Price
• Expected Dec. Corn Price $4.52
$4.52/56*4=0.3229 *100=$32.29

17. Another way to look at it…
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG
MonthlyPriceIndex
Great Northern MPI Pinto MPI
Feb. Avg.
Great Northerns $50
Pintos $34.25

18. 2014 Prices
• Strong basis during 2013/14
• USDA Outlook 2013/14
http://www.usda.gov/oce/forum/2014_Speeches/Ash.pdf
– Corn $4.50/bu.
– Winter Wheat $6.80/bu.

19. 2013/14 W. NE Corn Basis
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG
Western NE Corn Basis
2007/08-2012/13 Average Basis 2013/14

20. Net Income

21. Quick Math
Corn Wheat Beans Peas
Futures –
3/4/14
Dec - $4.84
Sept. HRW
$6.83
Basis -0.32 -1.11
Expected $4.52 $5.72 $32.29 $8.00
Estimated
Breakeven
$4.49 $5.13 $23.59 $7.24
Per Unit $0.03/bu. $0.59/bu. $8.70/cwt. $0.76/bu.
Per Acre
180 bu.
$5.04
85 bu.
$50.15
25 cwt.
$217.5
60 bu.
$45.60

22. Limited Irrigation Calculator
Available ONLINE go.unl.edu/pagecon

23. A little humor…
20
14
www.dilbert.com, As seen http://www.usda.gov/oce/forum/2014_Speeches/Ash.pdf
Take UNL’s Bean Survey ONLINE NOW!
Go.unl.edu/beansurvey

24. Office: 308-632-1247
go.unl.edu/pagecon
jjohnson@unl.edu
PanhandleAgEcon
Extension is a Division of the Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources at the
University of Nebraska-Lincoln cooperating with the Counties and the U.S. Department of
Agriculture.
University of Nebraska-Lincoln Extension educational programs abide with the non-
discrimination policies of the University of Nebraska-Lincoln and the United States
Department of Agriculture.
Get current Panhandle price & basis information
TEXT “@UNLPREC” to 651-968-8358
Standard message & data rates apply.

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