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Silicon Valley 2.0: Lots of Little Bets (Jakarta, June 2013)
Silicon Valley 2.0Lots of Little
Bets +Beating the “Series A Crunch”Dave McClurehttp://500.co(@DaveMcClure)GeeksOnaPlane IndonesiaJakarta, June 2013http://slideshare.net/dmc500hats
Dave McClureFounding Partner & Chief
Troublemaker, 500 Startups00’s & 10’s:• VC: Founders Fund, Facebook fbFund, 500 Startups• Angel: Mashery, Mint.com, SlideShare, Twilio, WildFire, SendGrid• Marketing: PayPal, Simply Hired, Mint.com, oDesk, O’Reilly80’s & 90’s:• Entrepreneur: Aslan Computing (acq’d by Servinet/Panurgy)• Developer: Windows / SQL DB consultant (Intel, MSFT)• Engineer: Johns Hopkins‘88, BS Eng / Applied Math
500 StartupsGlobal Seed Fund &
Startup Accelerator• What is 500?– ~$70M under management– 25 people / 12 investing partners– Locations: SV, NYC, MEX, BRZ, IND, CHN, SE asia– 1000+ Founders / 200+ Mentors• 500+ Portfolio Co’s / 30+ Countries– Wildfire (acq GOOG, $350M)– Twilio– SendGrid– TaskRabbit– MakerBot– Viki (SG)– Flyer.IO (SG/SV)– 9GAG (HK)– PicCollage (TWN)– Cubie (TWN)– Pop (TWN)– Payroll Hero (PI/Canada)– TwitMusic (PI)
500 Startups: Global Seed FundOver
100+ startups outside US, in 35+ countries• Q4/12 added: Germany, Korea, Peru; + Russia, Turkey, Ghana in Q2/13• Priorities in 2012: Brazil, Mexico, India• Priorities In 2013: China, SE Asia, MENA, Eastern Europe
Silicon Valley 2.0:Lots of Little
Betsaka “MoneyBall for Startups”• VC Evolution: Physician, Scale Thyself (Aug 2012)• MoneyBall for Startups, 500 Startups Investment Thesis (Jul 2010)
Changes in Tech Startups• LESS
Capital required to build product, get to market– Dramatically reduced $$$ on servers, software, bandwidth– Crowdfunding, KickStarter, Angel List, Funders Club, etc– Cheap access to online platforms for 100M+ consumers, smallbiz, etc• MORE Customers via ONLINE platforms (100M+ users)– Search (Google)– Social (Facebook, Twitter)– Mobile (Apple, Android)– Local (Yelp, Groupon, Living Social)– Media (YouTube, Pinterest, Instagram, Tumblr)– Comm (Email, IM/Chat, Voice, SMS, etc)• LOTS of little bets: Accelerators, Angels, Angel List, Small Exits– Y Combinator, TechStars, 500 Startups– Funding + Co-working + Mentoring -> Design, Data, Distribution– “Fast, Cheap Fail”, network effects, quantitative + iterative investments
Daft Punk Lean Startup:Simpler, Faster,
Cheaper, Smarter1. Startup Costs = Lower.2. # Users, Bandwidth = Bigger.3. Transaction $$$ = Better. Building Product => Cheaper, Faster, Better Getting Customers => Easier, More MeasurableIterative Product & Marketing Decisionsbased on Measured User Behavior
11500 Strategy: “Lots of Little
Bets”*1) Make lots of littlebets pre-traction,early-stage startups2) after 6-12 months, identifytop 20% performers anddouble-down higher $$$3) conservative model assumes-5-10% large exits @20X ($50-100M+)-10-20% small exits @5X ($5-50M)*See Peter Sims book: “Little Bets”
Early-Stage Investment 101:Incremental Risk Reduction•
1stMtg: Crazy, Idiots, Liars or Crooks?• Product: does it work? (crappy, not perfect)• Market: are people using it? (not their mom)• Revenue: will people pay for it? (just a few)• Growth: how will it/they scale? (online? offline?)• Finance: what will it cost?– Q1: cost to get a customer?– Q2: how & when do you make money?
The Lean VC:Lots of Little
Bets, Incremental InvestmentMethod: Invest in lots of startups using incrementalinvestment, iterative development. Start with manysmall experiments, filter out failures, and expandinvestment in successes… (Rinse & Repeat).• Incubator: $0-100K (“Build & Validate Product”)• Seed: $100K-$1M (“Test & Grow Marketing Channels””)• Venture: $1M-$10M (“Maximize Growth & Revenue”)
Investment Stage #1:Product Validation +
Customer Usage• Structure– 1-3 founders– $25-$100K investment– Incubator environment: multiple peers, mentors/advisors• Test Functional Prototype / “Minimum Viable Product” (MVP):– Prototype->Alpha, ~3-6 months– Develop Minimal Critical Feature Set => Get to “It Works! Someone Uses It.”– Improve Design & Usability, Setup Conversion Metrics– Test Small-Scale Customer Adoption (10-1000 users)• Demonstrate Concept, Reduce Product Risk, Test Functional Use• Develop Metrics & Filter for Possible Future Investment
Investment Stage #2:Market Validation +
Revenue Testing• Structure– 2-10 person team– $100K-$1M investment– Syndicate of Angel Investors / Small VC Funds• Improve Product, Expand Customers, Test Revenue:– Alpha->Beta, ~6-12 months– Scale Customer Adoption => “Many People Use It, & They Pay.”– Test Marketing Campaigns, Customer Acquisition Channels + Cost– Test Revenue Generation, Find Profitable Customer Segments• Prove Solution/Benefit, Assess Market Size• Test Channel Cost, Revenue Opportunity• Determine Org Structure, Key Hires
Investment Stage #3:Revenue Validation +
Growth• Structure– 5-25 person team– $1M-$10M investment– Seed & Venture Investors• Make Money (or Go Big), Get to Sustainability:– Beta->Production, 12-24 months– Revenue / Growth => “We Can Make (a lot of) Money!”– Mktg Plan => Predictable Channels / Campaigns + Budget– Scalability & Infrastructure, Customer Service & Operations– Connect with Distribution Partners, Expand Growth• Prove/Expand Market, Operationalize Business• Future Milestones: Profitable/Sustainable, Exit Options
Before & After 2 Dot-Com
CrashesDaft Punk Startup: Simpler, Faster, Cheaper, SmarterBefore 2000•Sun Servers•Oracle DB•Exodus Hosting•12-24mo dev cycle•6-18mo sales cycle•<100M people online•$1-2M seed round•$3-5M Series A•Sand Hill Road crawl•Big, Fat, Dinosaur StartupAfter 2008•AWS, Google, PayPal, FB, TW•Cloud + Open Source SW•Lean Startup / Startup Wknd•3-90d dev cycle•SaaS / online sales•>3B people online•<$100K incub + <$1M seed•$1-3M Series A•Angel List global visibility•Lean, Little, Cockroach Startup
Crunch Good? Crunch Bad?• Series
A bar higher: $1M revenue, 1M active users,10M downloads, 100% YoY growth• Lots of Incubation / Seed startups will “fail”• BUT: Fail Budget = $50-$500K, not $5M+• Many “failed” startups = ramen-profitable, smallacquisition, or MBA alternative (<$100K)• Series A/B VCs have lots to choose from• Overall, founders / market getting smarter• More focus on customers, problems, revenue• Many die, some survive (1-5x), a few thrive (20x+).
Web 2.0 Business Model:KISS (“Keep
It Simple, Stupid”)• 1) Re-invent Web 1.0 Businesses– Make a Website, a Widget, an App– Sell Stuff (Transactions, Subscriptions, Affiliate)• 2) add Web 2.0 Technology– Search, Social, Mobile, Local, Media, Comm– Google, Facebook/Twitter, Apple/Android, YouTube– Email, SMS, Ecommerce / Payments• 3) Get Customers, Make Money– Distribution, Distribution, Distribution– (Customer Acq’stn Cost) vs. ($Rev. Per Customer)– Low CapX + Profitable Web Businesses
Incubator 2.0: Fast, Cheap, FAIL•
Incubators = supportive startup ecosystem (+ angels, VCs)• Efficient use of investment capital ($0-100K)• High fail rate (60-80%) => large initial sample size
Incubator 2.0:Education, Collaboration, Iteration• Success
based on:– MANY, small experiments– common platforms, customers, problems & solutions– physical proximity, open/collaborative environment– Domain-specific mentors & expertise– fast fail, iteration, metrics & feedback loop• Incremental investment; high-risk, but high-reward
Minimum Viable Team:Hacker, Hipster, Hustler•
Hacker: engineers & developers• Hipster: design & user experience (UX)• Hustler: marketing & business, “growth hacker”1.Build functional prototypes2.Improve UX so people convert3.Scale customer acquisition & distribution
Product, Market, Revenue• Product: assess
functional use, improve design/UX• Market: test usage, distribution channels• Revenue: test cust acq cost, revenue, timing of both• Pitch: Work on Pitch, Help Find Co-Investors, etc
fbFund REVfbFund REV: Facebook “Social”
Incubator: invest in startups, apps,websites based on Facebook platform & Facebook Connect.• 22 startups @ ~$35K each (< $1M total)• 3 month program: Technology, Design, Marketing, Business topics• Success: 8 startups raised $500K –> 5 Series A -> 3 Series B (+ 3 small exits)• Wildfire Interactive acquired by GOOG for $350M (>50X)
Most BusinessesSuck @ Innovation.• They
Don’t Know Technology.• They Don’t Know How to Code.• They Don’t Know SEO or SEM.• They Don’t Know Email Marketing.• They Don’t Know Social, Video, Local, Mobile.• They Don’t Know Good Design or UX.• They Don’t Know How to Cut & Paste.• They Don’t Know How to Use PayPal.
Most Things Suck.• But, We
Can Easily Make Most Things Better.• Tech + Web = Reduced Overhead Costs.• Search + Social Platforms = Better Marketing.• Copy Existing Business Model = Reduced Risk.• FOCUS = Make ONEthing / SOMEthing Better.
You Don’t Have to be
Tony Stark• Just Copy/Use the Stuff that Tony Stark Makes.– Tip: Most People Won’t Notice U Aren’t Tony Stark.• Copy/Use 99% All The Amazing Stuff Out There.• Innovate on the other 1%.• Innovate 1% More Every Month.• Then Kick Back and Have a Beer.
Formula 4 Awesome:Notice Things That
Suck. Make Them Suck Less.• Most Offline Businesses Are Inefficient. (Web 1.0, Web 0.0)• Lots of Overhead, Crappy UX, Crappy Marketing.• Copy Their Business Model (It Already Makes $$$).• Reduce Overhead Cost (Be a Scrappy Startup).• Increase Marketing Efficiency (Do Online Marheting).• Copy/Integrate 99% Awesome Stuff (aka Tech)• Innovate on the Remaining 1%.• Keep Innovating 1%. Every Month
Global Trends• Growth of Global
Languages (see MyGengo.com)– 1B+ speakers: Mandarin, English– 300-500M+ spkrs: Spanish, Arabic• Smart Device Proliferation– mobile, tablet, TV, console, etc• More Young, More Old ($$$) Users Online• More Bandwidth, More Video, More Social, More Mobile• Wealthy Chinese + Indian, Web + IRL Globetrotters ($$$B)• Acceleration of Global Payment, E-Commerce• Dramatically Reduced Cost: Product Dev, Customer Acqstn• Global Distribution Platforms– US/EU: Apple, Facebook, AMZN, GOOG (Search, YouTube, Gmail, Android), Twitter– Asia: Baidu, Tencent, Alibaba, Sina, NHN, Yahoo-J, Softbank, Rakuten, DeNA, Gree
Thanks • Questions / More
Info?– http://500.co (our company)– http://500hats.com (my blog)– https://angel.co/500startups (our fund)– Khailee Ng, 500 Startups SE Asia (@Khailee)– Dave McClure, 500 Startups USA (@DaveMcClure)