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Dinosaurs & Unicorns: Avoiding Corporate Extinction by Investing in Startup Innovation

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Software Eats The World. Unicorns Kill Corporations (Dinosaurs).
Smart Dinosaurs Invest in Innovation & Buy Startups Before They Become Unicorns. These & Other Stories by 500 Startups

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Dinosaurs & Unicorns: Avoiding Corporate Extinction by Investing in Startup Innovation

  1. Dinosaurs + Unicorns: Avoiding Corporate Extinction By Investing in Startup Innovation @DaveMcClure @500Startups http://500.co #InnovatorsSummit - Sao Paulo, Nov 2015
  2. Dave McClure
 Founding Partner & Chief Troublemaker, 500 Startups 00’s & 10’s: • VC: Founders Fund, Facebook fbFund, 500 Startups • Angel: Mashery, Mint.com, SlideShare, Twilio, Wildfire, SendGrid • Marketing: PayPal, Simply Hired, Mint.com, O’Reilly 80’s & 90’s: • Entrepreneur: Aslan Computing (acq’d by Servinet/Panurgy) • Developer: Windows / SQL DB consultant (Intel, MSFT) • Engineer: Johns Hopkins‘88, BS Eng / Applied Math
  3. • What is 500? – $200M silicon valley VC fund + startup accelerator – 100 people / 30 investing partners / 18 countries / 20+ languages – 2500+ Founders / 250+ Mentors – Community + Content + Conferences • ~1200+ Portfolio Co’s / 50+ Countries – Wildfire (acq GOOG, $350M) – MakerBot (acq SSYS, $400M) – Viki (acq Rakuten, $200M) – Simple (acq BBVA, $117M) – Sunrise (acq MSFT, $100M) – Credit Karma – Twilio – GrabTaxi – SendGrid – Udemy – Barkbox – Intercom – TalkDesk 500 Startups
 Global Seed Fund & Startup Accelerator
  4. [ This Talk ] • Startups Move FAST. • Startups Can KILL. • How 500 Works With Startups. • How 500 Works With Corporates. • Questions?
  5. Unicorns + Software: Eating The World, Killing The Dinosaurs 5
  6. Key Factors • Software = low overhead • Startups = move fast • Internet Marketing (Search, Social, Mobile) = better customer acquisition, lower cost, faster growth, generally more awesomeness 6 Unicorns + Software: Eating The World, Killing The Dinosaurs
  7. Before & After 2 Dot-Com Crashes
 LEAN Startup: Simpler, Faster, Cheaper, Smarter Before 2000 Big, Fat, Dinosaur Startup • Sun Servers • Oracle DB • Exodus Hosting • 12-24mo dev cycle • 6-18mo sales cycle • <100M people online • $1-2M seed round • $3-5M Series A • Sand Hill Road crawl After 2008 Lean, Little, Cockroach Startup • AWS, Google, PayPal, FB, TW • Cloud + Open Source SW • Lean Startup / Startup Wknd • 3-90d dev cycle • SaaS / online sales • >3B people online • <$100K incub + <$1M seed • $1-3M Series A • Angel List global visibility
  8. Industry Changes • Lean Startup Efficiency, Reduced Capital Costs • Global Market: 3B->6B Internet/Smartphone Access • Billion-People Distribution Platforms, “Growth Hacking” • Improved Monetization, Payments Infrastructure, Logistics • Explosion of “Unicorns” Disrupting Public Companies • VC Displacing IPOs, Micro VC + Seed Funds • Global Market of Angels, Accelerators, Acquirers • Investment in Startup Ecosystems, New Funding Platforms
  9. Changes in Tech Startups • LESS Capital required to build product, get to market – Dramatically reduced cost for servers, software, bandwidth – Funding Platforms: KickStarter, Angel List, Funders Club, etc – Access to online platforms for 100M-1B+ consumers, smallbiz, etc • MORE Customers via ONLINE platforms (100M+ users) – Search (Google, Baidu) – Social (Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn) – Mobile (Apple, Android) – E-Commerce (Amazon, Ebay/PayPal, Alibaba) – Media (YouTube, Pinterest, Instagram) – Comm/Msgs (WeChat, WhatsApp, Line, SnapChat, Email, Voice, SMS, etc) • LOTS of little bets: Accelerators, Angels, Angel List, Small Exits – Capital + Co-working + Mentoring -> Design, Data, Distribution – “Fast, Cheap Fail”, network effects, quantitative + iterative investments
  10. Platforms 2.0
 Search, Social, Mobile, Video, Messaging
  11. [ This Talk ] • Startups Move FAST. • Startups Can KILL. • How 500 Works With Startups. • How 500 Works With Corporates. • Questions?
  12. History Lesson: Startups Can KILL. In 2001, Borders thought e- books were not important. They outsourced it to Amazon. In only 10 years, Borders became bankrupt, laying off 10,700 people,
 While Amazon is worth $150 Billion.
  13. In 2001, Borders thought e- books were not important. They outsourced it to Amazon. In only 10 years, Borders became bankrupt, laying off 10,700 people,
 While Amazon is worth $150 Billion. In 2000, Blockbuster was offered to buy Netflix for $50 Million In only 10 years, Blockbuster becomes bankrupt. While Netflix worth $20 Billion. History Lesson: Startups Can KILL.
  14. In 2001, Borders thought e- books were not important. They outsourced it to Amazon. In only 10 years, Borders became bankrupt, laying off 10,700 people,
 While Amazon is worth $150 Billion. In 2000, Blockbuster was offered to buy Netflix for $50 Million In only 10 years, Blockbuster becomes bankrupt. While Netflix worth $20 Billion. Kodak is famous for inventing the first film-less digital camera in the world. It is also famous for becoming bankrupt because they didn’t invest in it. History Lesson: Startups Can KILL.
  15. It’s happening to banks. History Lesson: Startups Can KILL.
  16. It’s happening to car makers. History Lesson: Startups Can KILL.
  17. It’s happening to logistics companies. History Lesson: Startups Can KILL.
  18. Future History: Next Unicorns?
  19. [ This Talk ] • Startups Move FAST. • Startups Can KILL. • How 500 Works With Startups. • How 500 Works With Corporates. • Questions?
  20. 500 Startups: 100+ Investors, Entrepreneurs, Geeks from Silicon Valley + 17 other Countries The title “Partner” is used in accordance with customary business practice in the venture capital industry and does not indicate a legal Dave McClure Christine Tsai FOUNDINGFOUNDING PARTNER Khailee Ng MANAGING Bedy Yang MANAGING SOUTH EAST ASIA LATAM/BRAZIL Hasan Haider Santiago Zavala Rui Ma Marvin Liao Elizabeth Yin Edith Yeung Sean Percival Adam Benayoun Juan L. Salaberry Pankaj Jain Mojan MovassateMax Fram-Schwartz Ryan Lawler Andrea Barrica Zafer Younis Krating Poonpol Natavudh P. (Moo)Cjin Cheng Binh Tran Emily Chiu Diana Moldavsky Robert Neivert Eddie Thai Erhan ErdoganPhilipp Moehring James Riney Mat Johnson Matt Lerner Tammy Camp Tim Chae Early employee Paypal, early ‘Super Angel’, venture capitalist at Founder’s Fund, led fbFund. Early employee YouTube, led developer community building for Google after YouTube’s acquisition Built and exited 2 startups in 3 years. GroupsMore sold to Groupon + SAYS.com merged to be listed on the Malaysian stock exchange Founded Brazil Innovators and built startup ecosystems in Latin America, and most active seed investor threre. Kauffman Fellow
  21. 500 Startups: 100+ Investors, Entrepreneurs, Geeks from Silicon Valley + 17 other Countries
  22. The 500 Portfolio: Over 1,000 Companies in 50 Countries 3 Unicorns > $1B+ in valuation 30 Centaurs > $100M+ in valuation 300 Ponies > $10M+ in valuation Udemy VivaReal Smule TalkDesk Intercom WePay Sendgrid TheRealReal Womply Life360 StyleSeat Peertransfer Vungle ElaCarte Ipsy Remind BarkBox Plangrid Tradesy Virool Kinnek Sprig Skimlinks ToutApp Recurly ContaAzul Zozi BoostCTR OwnLocal Brainient Bustle LeTote Breather Mayvenn SpotHero Canva TokyoOtakuMode ClubW Muse Geekatoo Transcriptic SnapSheet Algolia Juxta Labs RealtyShares Unikrn Lenda AgFunder BTCjam Junglee Culture Alley Cleanify Italist AllDay Avanoo Neighborly Holidog ViralGains SilverPush StudyPool ++++
  23. 500 Partners: VCs + Tech Platforms Our companies have raised capital from hundreds of VCs around the world: Our companies have been acquired by over 20 major corporate acquirers:
  24. 24 Sectors Selected Companies E-COMMERCE CLOUD & SAAS VIDEO MOBILE & TABLET EDUCATION PAYMENTS & FINANCIAL SERVICES DATA SCIENCE (AI/MACHINE LEARNING) IoT & HARDWARE REAL ESTATE TECH & LOGISTICS 500 Sectors: Investment Categories
  25. Legal review Partner approval Angel Pre-Seed Seed Post-Seed Series A/B Growth Accelerator How 500 Invests Seed “Distro" Follow-On Selection Criteria – Data-Driven Process Based on Pre-defined Metrics • Product or service solves a problem for a specific target customer • Capital-efficient business; operational at less than $1M in external financing • Scalable internet-based distribution (search, social, mobile) or proven ability to scale sales • Functional prototype required before investing (or previous product success) • Measurable traction: engaged users, some revenue, and attractive unit economics • Cross-functional team with design, engineering and marketing expertise
  26. 500 Strategy: Lots of Little Bets* 1) make lots (>100) of investments in early-stage startups 3) wait 3-10 years for returns: -10-20% small exits @1-5X (<25M+) -5-10% larger exits @5-20X ($25-250M+) -1-2% unicorns @20-50X+ (>$250M-1B+) *See Peter Sims book: “Little Bets” 2) over next 2 years, double-down on top 20%
  27. Startup Risk Reduction Concept Early Customer Usage Scalable Customer Acquisition [about to be] Profitable Unit Economics Scalable Profitable Business Functional Prototype PRODUCT MARKET REVENUE Exit? When 500 Likes to Invest
  28. The Lean Investor Make lots of little bets: • Start with many small “experiments” • Filter out failures + small wins • Double-down on stuff that looks like it’s working • Incubation: $0-100K (“Build & Validate Product”) • Seed: $100K-$1M (“Test & Grow Marketing Channels””) • Venture: $1M-$10M (“Maximize Growth & Revenue”)
  29. Investment Stage #1: 
 Product Validation + Customer Usage • Structure – 1-3 founders – $25-$100K investment – Incubator environment: multiple peers, mentors/advisors • Test Functional Prototype / “Minimum Viable Product” (MVP): – Prototype->Alpha, ~3-6 months – Develop Minimal Critical Feature Set => Get to “It Works! Someone Uses It.” – Improve Design & Usability, Setup Conversion Metrics – Test Small-Scale Customer Adoption (10-1000 users) • Demonstrate Concept, Reduce Product Risk, Test Functional Use • Develop Metrics & Filter for Possible Future Investment
  30. Investment Stage #2: 
 Market Validation + Revenue Testing • Structure – 2-10 person team – $100K-$1M investment – Syndicate of Angel Investors / Small VC Funds • Improve Product, Expand Customers, Test Revenue: – Alpha->Beta, ~6-12 months – Scale Customer Adoption => “Many People Use It, & They Pay.” – Test Marketing Campaigns, Customer Acquisition Channels + Cost – Test Revenue / Unit Economics, Find Profitable Customer Segments • Prove Solution/Benefit, Assess Market Size • Test Channel Cost, Unit Economics, Revenue Opportunity • Determine Org Structure, Key Hires
  31. Investment Stage #3: 
 Revenue Validation + Growth • Structure – 5-25 person team – $1M-$10M investment – Seed & Venture Investors • Make Money (or Go Big), Get to Sustainability: – Beta->Production, 12-24 months – Revenue / Growth => “We Can Make (a lot of) Money!” – Mktg Plan => Predictable Channels / Campaigns + Budget – Scalability & Infrastructure, Customer Service & Operations – Connect with Distribution Partners, Expand Growth • Prove/Expand Market, Operationalize Business • Future Milestones: Profitable/Sustainable, Exit Options
  32. [ This Talk ] • Startups Move FAST. • Startups Can KILL. • How 500 Works With Startups. • How 500 Works With Corporates. • Questions?
  33. How Can Corporates Work With Startups?
  34. How Can Corporates Work With Startups? • Research: Learn about Innovation Topics + Disruptive Tech • Meet: Get to Know Top Companies + Future Unicorns • Invest: Own A Piece of The Future (Accelerator, Fund, Direct) • Partner: Test Drive New Products With Your Customers • Acquire: Acquire People + Technology + Business
  35. 500 Startups + Stanford University Investor Education Program #Venture Capital Unlocked: Learn the secrets of Silicon Valley Investing #Corporate Accelerator: Build your own accelerator with 500 Startups #Corporate VC: How to develop an industry-specific investment thesis #500VCs
  36. How to build investment thesis Meet REAL startup founders and conduct selection Connection with Silicon Valley investors and mentors Legal docs: cap table and standard terms How to generate deal flow Trends and relevant area of investments 500 Startups + Stanford University Investor Education Program #500VCs
  37. Feb 8th-19th 2016 @ Stanford+500 signup NOW: 
 http://500.vc 500 Startups + Stanford University Investor Education Program #500VCs
  38. (Portfolio) SIZE MATTERS
  39. Q: Chances of spotting unicorn?/ a) 1% b) 2% c) 5% d) 10% e) ZERO
  40. Chances of spotting unicorn/
  41. / http://bit.ly/99VCProble
  42. If portfolio size = 15 companies/
  43. / If portfolio size = 30 companies
  44. / If portfolio size = 100 companies
  45. Questions? Comments? • More? – http://500.co (our company) – http://500hats.com (my blog) – https://angel.co/500startups (our fund & syndicates) – Dave McClure, @DaveMcClure

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