Deaths/day reached 1013 on 9th August and have declined thereafter with some fluctuations. Infections/day reached 67,066 on 12th August and have declined thereafter with some fluctuations. Active Infections reached 677,059 on 15th August and have declined thereafter. On 9th August, cumulative deaths were 44,466 (32 deaths/Mn) There are several caveats and possibilities still left as we will discuss further.

1. Covid 19 Stats in India –
Update 6
Review of key data and presentation of a projection model
Data updated till 17.08.20
Data Sources: https://www.covid19india.org/; https://www.worldometers.info/

2. Objective/Background
• To develop a forecast model to predict when Covid 19 (as represented by
deaths/day) would start declining in India.
• The model was first presented in a blog post (published on 19.05.20) and a
Zoom presentation on 24.05.20. The model has been updated fortnightly
on Zoom thereafter.
• Initial Forecast (19.05.20)
• Deaths/day will start declining in the first half of July 2020
• At that time the cumulative deaths would be between 34,461 – 68,922 (25 – 50
deaths/Mn)
• Latest Update (4.08.20)
• The projected date of decline in deaths/day was estimated to be on 6.08.20

3. Key Highlights
• Deaths/day reached 1013 on 9th August and have declined thereafter with some
fluctuations.
• Infections/day reached 67,066 on 12th August and have declined thereafter with
some fluctuations.
• Active Infections reached 677,059 on 15th August and have declined thereafter.
• On 9th August, cumulative deaths were 44,466 (32 deaths/Mn)
• There are several caveats and possibilities still left as we will discuss further.

4. • Daily deaths peaked on 9th
August at 1013
• 3 DMA peaked on 14th
August at 982
• 7 DMA peaked on 15th
August at 947

5. Agenda
• Presentation of key data for All India 10 Mins
• Presentation of key data for Hot Spots 10 Mins
• Discussion 5 Mins
• Presentation of update on projection model 10 Mins
• Discussion 15 Mins

6. All India Data

7. • Testing has been ramped
up to over 800,000 tests
per day.
• The % positive rate is now
around 7% and is
declining.
• This means that India is
now testing enough and
more as per international
norms (10% positivity rate)
• This also means that
growth in cases and the
trend is more useful for
forecasting than it was
when the positivity rate
was increasing.

8. • As discussed earlier, with increasing testing,
the data on new infections has become more
robust and representative.
• In the previous presentation, we had seen
that Active Infections were beginning to
flatten and form a crest. This trend has
continued.
• New Infections, for the first time, are showing
signs of flattening and decline.

9. • We are recording over
50,000 new infections/day
with a doubling rate of 26
days. This has slowed
down and is showing a
declining trend.
Cumulative infections
stand at 27,01,604 on
17.08.20

10. • Cum Infections = Cum
Recoveries + Cum Deaths
• Active Infections are declining at
a national level. This will lead to
freeing up the medical
infrastructure in the states
where a decline has started.
However, in other states it is still
growing.

11. • The death rate trend is steadily
declining. At present it is 1.92%.
• Deaths may occur afterwards from the
same group. This will push up the rate
a little.
• As discussed earlier the real level of
infections in the population may be
very much higher. In that case the real
death rate is probably much lower than
what is shown here.
• India’s death rate is lower than all
major countries. International media
has questioned this (BBC, NY Times
and Washington Post) saying that
deaths are not being properly
reported. This point was covered in the
previous presentation. India is not an
outlier.

12. Hot Spots Data

13. • Mumbai has been the worst
affected by Covid 19 followed
by Chennai, Delhi, and
Ahmedabad.
• Testing has been high in
Delhi and Chennai leading to
a high rate of discovered
cases.
• The disease has still not
significantly penetrated
outside the major hot spots
though it is spreading much
faster now.
• Is it possible that social
distancing and other control
measures can be more
effectively implemented in
small towns/rural areas? This
may lead to earlier peaking
out.

14. • Rest of India
contribution has grown
from 40% to 47% in
two weeks indicating
that the infection is
spreading fast into the
hinterland.
• Old hot spots are
declining as we will see
later.

15. • The charts show weekly growth rates in deaths/million for key cities that were impacted.
• Older hot spots growth rates (Mumbai, Delhi, Ahmedabad, Chennai) are declining rapidly. Rest of Maharashtra is just
coming into control. Bangalore has turned the corner.

17. Hot Spot States
• The decline in Maharashtra and Delhi has
led to plateauing and decline at the
National level.
• This compensatory pattern will be visible
with other states going forward.
Karnataka and Andhra are now plateauing
and should start declining soon. These will
compensate for TN that is still growing.
• Eventually, the Rest of India which
comprises of several states will start
seeing a decline in each one individually
and the curve should start plateauing.
• The danger lies in recurrence of infections
in states that have already plateaued.

18. Projection Model for India

19. Basis for Projection
• Most countries have seen a fall in new infections and deaths per day
after some time. Some countries like India have yet to experience
this.
• The response of various counties is different in terms of when this
decline started.
• Our model will use per capita deaths and infections on the day the
decline started in each country to model a possible scenario for India.
As stated earlier, deaths are a more reliable indicator than infections
for projection.

20. Herd Immunity and R0
• There is some speculation on why the virus has declined in so many countries.
• ‘Herd Immunity’ comes when approximately 60% of the population is immune
either by a vaccine or because they have had the disease already. This has not
happened anywhere in the world. However there is new thinking on this that we
will discuss later.
• Social distancing, hand washing, and masking can help to reduce the R0 value
even if Herd Immunity has not been achieved. Perhaps this is the reason why
infections and deaths have declined.
• This presentation and projection model does not seek to answer this question. It
is merely based on the empirical evidence of declines having taken place in most
countries.

21. Infections Deaths Infections Deaths
Malaysia 3.04.20 29.03.20 103 1
Thailand 29.04.20 NA 42 -
Indonesia 13.05.20 NA 57 -
Bangladesh NA NA - -
Pakistan NA NA - -
Turkey 11.04.20 19.04.20 619 24
Iran 30.03.20 4.04.20 495 41
Italy 26.03.20 27.03.20 1,333 151
Spain 1.04.20 2.04.20 2,227 221
France 3.04.20 15.04.20 1,171 263
Germany 2.04.20 15.04.20 1,012 45
Russia 11.05.20 NA 1,517 -
UK 6.05.20 21.04.20 2,962 298
USA 24.04.20 21.04.20 2,797 138
Brazil NA NA - -
Date of Decline Start Per Million on that date

22. Projection Update
Population Per Mn Deaths on Day Decline Starts Projected Deaths on Day Decline Starts
Low Medium High Low Medium High
India 1,37,843,247 25 40 50 34,461 55,137 68,922
• May 24th Presentation – Projected date for decline in deaths/day was First Half of July 2020 based on a
doubling rate of deaths per day of 13 days.

23. Country Wise Variations
• The disease has impacted various countries differently. Broadly, the following clusters emerge:
• UK/USA are the worst hit. While deaths/day have started declining in both countries they will have a slow recovery.
• Spain/France/Italy have had a very sharp increase followed by a steep fall.
• Germany is the outlier in Europe as they have managed to contain the infection better than other neighbouring countries.
• Turkey and Iran in West Asia have fared better than their European counterparts. There is a ‘second wave’ of infections
happening in Iran.
• South East Asia, Africa and ANZ have largely escaped the brunt of the disease.
• It is outside the scope of this discussion to assign reasons for this differential behaviour.
Speculation about natural immunity, BCG vaccination, endemic malaria, hot weather etc are
continuing.
• Based on the differential response, India looks set to behave more like its West Asian
counterparts. The rest of South Asia may also follow suit.

24. Infected
Person
Has had
Covid
Sero Positive
Surveys
Has not had
Covid
Active
Infection
Death Recovery
Case Fatality
Rate
Deaths/Day
Does not get
Infected
Herd
Immunity
Positivity
Rate
R0

25. https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/is-
india-winning-the-coronavirus-war-the-r-
factor-2280828

26. Seropositive Surveys
• Various surveys have been conducted but no official results have been
released. Some press articles are quoted below.
• May Data showed: 40% in an Ahmedabad cluster; 36% in Dharavi
• June Data showed 14.4% of ALL of Kolkata
• July Data showed 23.5% of ALL of Delhi
• July TIFR and Niti Aayog survey showed 57% in Mumbai slums in 3 wards
and 16% in non slum areas
• August Data shows 51.5% of ALL of Pune

27. Herd Immunity - Article - NY Times
• Earlier assumptions were that 55 – 60% of the population needed to
have had the infection for Herd immunity to develop.
• New Research is questioning this. Herd Immunity may come at much
lower levels (25 – 30 %). However this research is not proven.
• Indian cities are displaying very high levels of sero positivity. This is a
good sign.

28. Discussion
• RO values have been steadily declining. It is fair to say that early
lockdowns have helped. So has social distancing and masking. Data of
14th August shows the level for All India at 1.06
• Seropositive surveys (official data is not released yet) indicate
surprisingly high rates of positivity. This may lead to Herd Immunity
developing earlier that previously thought.
• Both these factors are positive, indicating a gradual decline in the
pandemic.

29. • This curve has not
changed significantly
since two weeks ago,
• Daily Deaths have
peaked on 9th August
when the 7 DMA was
900.
• 7 DMA has peaked
on 15th August with a
value of 947

30. Directions
• Deaths/Day have peaked on 9th August. However, this is still a unstable situation as the decline in current hot spots may
not be sufficient to offset growth in other places in future.
• RO values are declining. Seropositive studies are showing high levels. Both indicators are positive.
• The return of migrant workers to their home states have still not led to a major spurt in deaths in West Bengal, UP and
Bihar though the trends are going up. The Rest of India is a worry.
• Testing levels have reached high numbers. The case numbers are now more robust and can be used for projection. Both
daily infections and active infections have formed a crest and are now declining.
• The major risk is that the rural hinterland will see an explosion of cases after some time. This view has been expressed by
Dr Ashish Jha of Harvard.
• Next steps:
• Monitor the data to see if there is any relapse.
• Come up with a prediction model to forecast what will happen next (further decline, second wave etc.)

31. Thank You!
Please mail me at debubhatnagar@gmail.com
with any comments.
Disclaimer: These projections and analysis are not official and are the work of an
amateur. They should not be the basis of any decision making.