Focus Mid Term Symposium

1. Alternative futures of security
research in support of a
comprehensive approach
FOCUS
Mid-Term Symposium
Foresight Security Scenarios
Dr. Walter SEBÖCK
Tuesday 13 March 2012
DI Johannes GÖLLNER, MSc

2. Objective
 FOCUS-Deliverable D3.3:
– will select scenarios from FOCUS-Deliverable D3.2 and
explore alternative futures of security research to
support EU roles in the context of selected scenarios of
the comprehensive approach as developed in FOCUS-
Deliverable D3.2;
– will in particular identify ideal contributions from
multidisciplinary security research to meet requirements
of a comprehensive approach;
– Will assess the appropriateness of these contributions
against the background of scenarios for EU-specific roles
in the context of future variants of the comprehensive
2 approach. FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios

3. Selected
4 thematic embedded scenarios
 Scenario I: “Policy strategies
consensus scenario”
 Scenario II: “Policy strategies
leftovers scenario”
 Scenario III: “Multinationalism
scenario”
 Scenario IV: “Materialism scenario”
3 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios

4. Selected
4 thematic embedded scenarios
Scenario I: “Policy strategies consensus scenario”
Questions about this scenario:
Which measures must be taken, to prevent an overruling of
individual states by the development of common rules for hazard-
driven policy?
Which security-related research topics should be designed in
order to expand and broadening the concept of an European
security research?
4 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios

5. Selected
4 thematic embedded scenarios
Scenario II: “Policy strategies leftovers scenario”
Questions about this scenario:
Which measures must be taken in order to review and integrate
interdisciplinary expertise in European security policy more
closely?
Which security-related research topics should be designed in
order to expand and broadening the concept of an European
security research?
5 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios

6. Selected
4 thematic embedded scenarios
Scenario III: “Multinationalism scenario”
Questions about this scenario:
Do you think, that internal or external nationalism may pose a
security threat to the EU and why?
Under which framework it is possible to act against nationalistic
threats? Which EU members are able to play an important role and
which values do represent the EU in its entirety?
Please name a programme in which the EU represents common
values in order to act against external threatening nationalisms.
Which security-related research topics should be designed in
order to expand and broadening the concept of an European
security research?
6 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios

7. Selected
4 thematic embedded scenarios
Scenario IV: “Materialism scenario”
Questions about this scenario:
Do you believe that an enhanced cooperation and harmonization
could reduce or optimize resources in partner countries?
Which kind of harmonization and cooperation would you prefer
or define as useful?
Which security-related research topics should be designed in
order to expand and broadening the concept of an European
security research?
7 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios

8. Objective
 Following future security research themes will be further
explored for approx. four selected thematic embedded
scenarios:
– EU cohesion, decision-making and, more generally,
governance
– Regional/international/global distribution of wealth;
– Climate change;
– Crises resulting from scarcity of resources;
– Dependency on supply chains and reliability on the stability
of re-source sources (stability of providing countries);
8 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios

9. Objective
– Dependency on information and communication technology,
and technology in general (address cascading breakdown
of systems);
– Willingness to invest in preparedness;
– New methodologies for collecting and integrating data from
various different sources;
– Intelligent, knowledge-based focusing and filtering functions
for new social media and other open information source
monitoring;
– Integrated situational pictures as facilitation for networked
operation command structures;
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10. Objective
– Information exchange among civilian and military actors in
order to provide common, timely and relevant situational
awareness;
– Decision-making tools based on joined-up situation
analyses, in-cluding their use to secure public acceptance
and support;
– Standardized skills development and integrated information
sys-tems for a effective coordination of resources as well as
to coop-eration between EU Member States;
– Training schemes for technology use, including new social
net-work technologies;
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11. Objective
– Advancement and integration of approaches to foresight,
with special consideration of the following:
 User-driven shifts;
 User experience as a dominant influence in the
technology trend;
 Identification and analysis of disruptors from normative
(desired) end-states.
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12. in relation to a theoretical
Security[zation]-Framework
Political
security
Economic Societal
security security
Comprehensive
Approach
Environmental
security Military security
…and so on...
Source: Buzan, Weaver, Wilde;
A New Framework for Analysis, 2002 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios

13. Sources
 Focus Deliverable-D3.2
 Buzan, Weaver, Wilde: A New Framework for Analysis, 2002
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14. http://www.focusproject.eu
FOCUS is co-funded by the European
Commission under the 7th Framework
Programme, theme "security", call
FP7-SEC-2010-1, work programme topic 6.3-2
"Fore sighting the contribution of security
research to meet the future EU roles“,
Grant Agreement no. 261633.
14 FOCUS – Foresight Security Scenarios