The market detective is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT). He uses technical analysis to identify market turning points and opportunities. He is primarily an Elliottician, he uses the Elliott wave principle and Fibonacci ratio analysis to uncover clues about the direction of the market. He uses other forms of technical analysis to corroborate his findings in such a way as to assign a probability factor to them.

1. 11/2/20083:26 PM Pacific
We could see higher prices. From a traditional technical analysis position, the 200 period
moving average often acts like a magnet when price enters its orbit. Additionally a
breakout from a triangle usually travels the distance of the widest part of the triangle.
This distance is shown by the blue line segment. The Fibonacci ratios that support this
are the tendency for motive waves 1,3,5, to travel in total a Fibonacci ratio of the first
wave, most commonly 2.618 or 1.618, and the 5th wave is most often a 382 or .618
extension of waves 1-3. Therefore, we have a double Fibonacci confluence corroborated
by the 200 period ma and a common extension measurement for triangles.
The supports that need to hold for this to occur are the top of the triangle preferably, then
the 20 period ma / base of the triangle. If price falls through the base of the triangle,
probability shifts to five waves completed. A tick below 94000 absolutely confirms near-
term lower prices.

2. 11/2/20083:26 PM Pacific
Looking at the 60min chart the 20period ma and a .618 retracement corroborate a strong
support level for a bounce. I also show with a red horizontal line where an extension
higher without a larger retracement is no longer possible. The larger retracement (lower
prices) would probably be .500 (90425) or .618 (88554) if price is to then work higher.
TMD/DW
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