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Skynet is coming!
- 1. Skynet is coming! Deepak Azad M.Sc. Student, Computer Science Junior Fellows Speaker Series St. John’s College UBC Image: http://www.itweapons.com/tedblog/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/skynet.jpg Feb 19, 2013
- 2. Wait… What is Skynet? Image: http://www.coverbrowser.com/image/bestselling-movies- 2006/1498-1.jpg
- 3. Overview • Do we know how we think? • Machines that can think • How do they work? • Implications for mankind
- 4. Do we know how we see? – airplane.mov – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ubNF9QNEQLA Image: http://bibledaily.files.wordpress.com/2011/07/eye.jpg
- 5. Do we know how we think? • The doctor has good news and bad news • Bad news: You have tested positive for HIV, and that the test is 99% accurate (i.e., the probability of testing positive given that you have the disease is 0.99, as is the probability of testing negative given that you don’t have the disease). • Good news: Only 1 in 10,000 people are HIV- Image:http://images.sodahead.com/polls/001 878683/4411521534_thinking20web20pic_ans positive wer_3_xlarge.jpeg • How worried should you be?
- 6. Do we know how we think? • I have some money in my pocket and I will give $100 to the person(s) who ask the best question(s), as judged by me. • How many of you think that someone here will get $100? Image:http://greatlakescustomslaw.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/pocket-full-of-money.jpg
- 7. Let’s do the math • Let's say 1,000,000 people took the test. • Number of people who have the disease = 100 (Remember 1 in 10,000) • Number of people who tested positive AND who have the disease = 0.99 * 100 = 99 • Number of people who tested positive BUT did not have the disease = 0.01 * 999900 = 9999 • Probability that you actually have the disease = 99 / (99+9999) = 0.0098 Only 0.98% http://womenonthefence.com/wp- content/uploads/2009/12/DontWorryBeHappy.jpg
- 8. When should you worry? • Let's say you underwent another test which is also 99% accurate and you tested positive. = 49.5% http://drmichaelroth.files.wordpress.com/20 12/04/worry.gif
- 9. If all your friends jumped off a bridge… http://xkcd.com/1170/
- 10. Lesson posterior = likelihood x prior or new knowledge = data x old knowledge • This is known as Bayes’ rule http://skepticism-images.s3-website-us-east- 1.amazonaws.com/images/jreviews/Thomas_ Bayes.jpg
- 12. Lessons • We only ever see a tiny bit • We are pretty good at learning from data • We can recognize patterns quite well
- 14. Face Recognition
- 16. Twitter Sentiment Analysis • http://www.sentiment140.com/search?hl=en&query=Toronto %20Maple%20leafs • http://www.sentiment140.com/search?hl=en&query=Vancou ver%20Canucks • http://www.sentiment140.com/search?hl=en&query=Calgary %20flames
- 20. How does all this work ? Temperature Hours of Sun
- 22. A little more complicated… Temperature Hours of Sun
- 23. Using prior knowledge and dealing with uncertanity
- 24. Watson playing Jeapordy Images: http://hypervocal.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp- content/uploads/2011/02/IMG_4219.jpg http://www.asesoriae.mx/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/jeopardy12_full.jpg
- 25. Implications: Will machines take over? Images: http://img259.imageshack.us/img259/5900/wallecaptainmccreaauto.jpg http://www.604republic.com/gocms/wp- content/uploads/2012/11/halglados1.jpg http://www.ameinfo.com/images/news/3/7853-iRobot.jpg
- 26. Implications: Will we need to work? Image: http://culturemediasociety.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/wall-e.png?w=625
- 27. Ethics and Morality • Doctors and Insurance companies use the same tools – one to cure and one to deny insurance • Should people be allowed to drive? – People’s freedom vs reliable machines