Presentation on the fragmentation of voice, voice and messaging services in telecoms. Discusses the inevitable move from telephone calls to new forms of voice interaction, the importance of WebRTC and the irrelevance of new bureaucratic-driven telecom standards like RCS/joyn

1. For IP Communications, Ubiquity is Dead
Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis
BICS Mobility in Action, Bruges, Oct 29th 2013
dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com
@disruptivedean

2. About Disruptive Analysis
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London-based analyst house & strategic consulting firm
Cross-silo, contrarian, visionary, independent
Advisor to telcos, vendors, regulators & investors
Covering VoIP since 1997 & 3G/4G mVoIP since 2007
Critic of RCS since 2008
Published report on “Telco-OTT Strategies”, Feb 2012
New report on WebRTC, Feb 2013
Workshops on Future of Voice & TelcoOTT
Twitter @disruptivedean
October 2013
Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

3. Neuroscience explains reluctance to change
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Predictable irrationality
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Endowment effect
Optimism bias
Confirmation bias
Defence of belief systems
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Oct 2013
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4. Voice & messaging are fragmenting
Convergence
& standards
Fragmentation &
differentiation
Telephony & SMS will continue to exist, but there will be NO
more standard, interoperable services

5. Comforting myths
“Voice” = ubiquitous phone calls
QoS is critical
Interoperability is essential
Minutes / messages = value
October 2013
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6. Uncomfortable reality
Phone calls are
becoming less useful
QoS is only sometimes critical
Interoperability is essential
for basic lowest-common
denominator services only
Intention & outcomes = value
October 2013
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7. In the beginning – “Proxi-phone”
Near voice
Contextual
Managed interruptions
Background +/Sync + Async
Not “session” based
Etiquette, not regulation
Varying importance
Natural

8. Pretty good for the 19th century...
Old distant voice [Tele-phone]
>100 years ago
Strictly session-based
Limited context
Background negative
One-size fits all
Unnatural etiquette
Heavily regulated
... but eventually ubiquitous

9. ... but really not good enough for 21st century
“Hegemony
of the
caller”

10. Voice ≠ Telephony
• Now: 2G & 3G
• Future: Smartphones & LTE
Voice
Voice
Telephony
Telephony
Voicemail
Conferencing
PTT
Video
Gaming, CEBP,
surveillance, social
voice, TV voice etc
Video, context, sense
Comms moving “in-context”
October 2013
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11. Fragmentation of communications models
Standalone
Circuit calls
Good to have “lowest
common denominator”
IP
Embedded
app/web
calls
Non-call
comms
Maybe ubiquitous
in a niche
Ubiquity no/negative
benefit
Oct 2013
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12. Intent & context....
Why do people make
phone calls (or send
messages, share media
or use video), anyway?
October 2013
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13. Intention & purpose
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Context
Exchange information
Sell to a customer
Flirt
Manage staff
Gossip
Tell a story
Show off
Feel connected
Lie or pretend
Self-expression
October 2013
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On the sofa
In a meeting
While online
Using an app
On the street
On public transport
In a bar
Multi-tasking
Duty
Concentrating
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14. 1 OR 2 “UBIQUITOUS” SERVICES
CANNOT FULFILL ALL THESE
PURPOSES WELL
October 2013
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15. Tools are cheap/free. So we pick the right ones
SMS
October 2013
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16. So how important is quality?
% calls
Must have
I'll call back
Nice to have
Meh. I want free
October 2013
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17. Beyond “the minute” as a metric & model
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We don’t pay for movies or flights by the minute
Short calls often more valuable than long
Minutes = easy to count
Align pricing – and charging – with value
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Locks telecom industry to obsolete business model
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Needs creativity, on top of standards
Flat-rate at retail is popular, but wholesale?
Analytics? Cloud processing? Perceived importance?
Regulator mindset needs to shift too
October 2013
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18. Service
Product
Feature
Function
October 2013
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19. Design & software simpler via the Web
Oct 2013
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20. For telcos WebRTC is really a magnifier/catalyst
Now
With WebRTC
Bigger opportunities
Worse threats
Faster speed
October 2013
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21. Ubiquity is dead. And that’s a good thing.
We’re getting closer to
communications services
& applications meeting
our real human needs
We’ll still need lowestcommon denominator phone
calls & maybe SMS & email.
But that’s it for ubiquity.
October 2013
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22. For WebRTC report & quarterly update
details email information@disruptiveanalysis.com
October 2013
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23. www.disruptive-analysis.com
disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
@disruptivedean
information@disruptive-analysis.com
Skype:disruptiveanalysis
October 2013
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