A summary of the work of the Cascading Disasters Research Group at University College London's institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction.

1. The UCL-IRDR
Cascading Disasters Research Group
Prof. David Alexander, for the
Cascading Disasters Research Group
Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction
University College London

2. Prof. David Alexander
Professor of Risk
and Disaster Reduction
Dr Gianluca Pescaroli
Lecturer in Business Continuity
and Organisational Resilience
Dr Robert Wicks
Lecturer in Space Weather Risk
IRDR / Dept of Space and Climate Physics
UCL-IRDR Cascading Disasters Research Group

3. www.ucl.ac.uk/risk-disaster-reduction/research/
cascading-disasters-research-group

4. Rigopiano, 18 Jan. 2017
Central Italy, January 2017: Connected Events
Campo Felice, 24 Jan. 2017

5. BLACK-SKY THINKING
Venezuela

6. 2003 grid
failure
Superstorm Sandy
October 2012

7. Eyjafjallajökull - April 2010

8. Triple disaster
in Japan
March 2011
FUKUSHIMA
PREFECTURE

9. Grenfell Tower:-
• welfare and equity issues
• 314 dangerous residential
skyscrapers in UK
• emergency management procedures
• decimated building regulations

10. Coronal mass ejections
"space weather"
• damage to electricity
transformers
• damage to communications
satellites
• damage to global
navigation systems
• increased radiation dose
• communications
interruptions

11. 1859 - the "Carrington Event"
660 BC - a CME ten times larger...

12. Cascading disasters
[crises, emergencies]
are negative events that involve:-
• a primary impact (the trigger)
• chains or networks of consequences
• secondary impacts
• complex interacting vulnerabilities
• escalation points
• (usually) complex impacts
upon critical infrastructure.

13. C
E
E
E
E
C
E/C
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E/C
(a) (b)
C - cause
E - effect
E/C- escalation
points
Source: Pescaroli & Alexander (2015)

14. Time
Short/fastLong/slow
SpaceRestricted Extensive
CAS & critical
infrastructure
Macro-level socio-
technical systems,
e.g. globalisation
Local & regional socio-
technical systems, e.g.
policies
Environmental
triggers (if any)
Impact and
feedback
Source: Pescaroli and Alexander, 2016
Vulnerability
loops

15. `
• current knowledge about the concepts
of vulnerability, threat and risk
• current knowledge about
the concept of resilience
• human organisation in crisis situations
• gap analysis and resilience matrix
• interactions between resilience
and vulnerability: theoretical model.
Balancing vulnerability and resilience

16. Intangible effects
heritage
e.g. museum ->
artefacts ->
restorers
Cascading
escalation of
secondary
events
Triggering
event
National response
capacity
overwhelmed
Disruption of
critical
infrastructure
Direct effects:
functional nodes
e.g. power plant failure -
> lack of energy supply -
> lack of water
Indirect effects:
autonomous hazards
e.g. nuclear plant-
>contamination->CBRN
training and dosimetersRequest/offer
international
relief
Source: Pescaroli & Kelman 2016, JCCM

17. Interacting
Risk
Interconnected
Risk
Compound
Risk
Cascading
Risk
Environmental
drivers
Simultaneous or
successive
extreme events
Global
interdependency of
human, natural and
technological systems
Disruption of critical infra-
structure and tightly coupled
organisational systems
Multiple risk
assessment
Globalisation,
Systems theory
Causality
chains
Background conditions
amplify events
(underling risk drivers)
Climate change,
Physical and statistical
components
Environmental
drivers
Tightly coupled
organisational
systems
Disruption
of critical
infrastructure
Source:Pescaroli and
Alexander, 2019

18. Magnitude classification of cascading incidents, crises and disasters
Source:
Alexander, 2018

19. Improving strategic level awareness of cascading risk
@LDN_prepared
www.londonprepared.gov.uk
• from theory to practice: collaboration with London Resilience
• objectives: coordination of prevention;
management and recovery of disruption
• two key areas: critical infrastructure
interdependencies and power failures
• use of ANYTOWN model

21. • to support the actions of policy makers with better data
• to identify gaps and priorities
• to verify whether cascading risks and critical
infrastructure interdependencies are sufficiently
well addressed in multi-agency planning
• to increase awareness among senior stakeholders.
Some of the practical aims of our work

22. There is now a demand for
knowledge about cascading
impacts and their effects
• decision support systems
• theoretical models
• exploration of scenarios
• training sessions
• information dissemination
• brainstorming sessions

23. Conclusions
• society is complex: all disasters of
a certain size will involve cascades
• more investigation of operational
components is needed
• operational guidelines on cascading
effects of power failures
• we need to understand how
people behave in cascading crises
• inter-institutional dialogue
needs to be increased
• we need to investigate more case studies.

24. International Journal of
Disaster Risk Reduction
Special Issue (2018):
Understanding and
mitigating cascading
crises in the global
interconnected system

25. My current research on unexploded bombs:
a tsunami on fire coming up the River Thames....

26. Thank you for listening!
emergency-planning.blogspot.com
www.slideshare.net/dealexander
www.ucl.ac.uk/risk-disaster-reduction/research/
cascading-disasters-research-group
David.Alexander@ucl.ac.uk
G.Pescaroli@ucl.ac.uk
R.Wicks@ucl.ac.uk