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Extreme Weather Preparedness

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Extreme Weather Preparedness

  1. 1. Prof. David Alexander Prevention and Preparedness for Extreme Weather Events
  2. 2. Radio- active emissions CBRN terrorism Pandemics, epizootics, epiphytotics Climate change Emerging risks... Great geophysical events: volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, extra- terrestrial impacts, etc. Space weather Cyber influencing and warfare
  3. 3. RISK Cascading risk tightly-coupled systems and critical infrastructure Compound risk multiple extreme events Interacting risk environmental drivers Interconnected risk interdependent natural, human and technological systems Composite risk any and all? COMPLEXITY
  4. 4. CASCADING DISASTERS
  5. 5. C E E E E C E/C E E E E E E E E E/C (a) (b) C – cause E – effect Escalation points (a) (b)
  6. 6. Escalation Vulnerability scenarios Risk scenario Primary impact Secondary impacts Cascade path Cascade path Hazard event(s) After Nones & Pescaroli 2016, Pescaroli & Nones 2016 Interaction between vulnerabilities Legislation Management Time-space transitions
  7. 7. CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE Technological component Social component Cyber space Physical space
  8. 8. Primary cause of disaster Impact on critical infrastructure Impact on housing Impact on productive capacity Direct impacts Indirect impacts Impact on activities Secondary impacts Impact on activities Impact on revenue Secondary cause of disaster Impact on well-being Impact on safety Impact on recovery
  9. 9. SPECIFIC VULNERABILITY GENERAL (CONTEXTUAL) VULNERABILITY Long-term causes (dynamic pressures): predisposition to disaster CAUSES EFFECTS National cascading effects International cascading effects Local cascading effects Direct causes Practical problems that contribute to disaster Root causes: motivating and underlying factors Escalation factors P A N A R C H Y
  10. 10. EMERGENCY PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT
  11. 11. MUTUAL DEPENDENCIES CAPACITY AND CAPABILITIES THE PUBLIC'S EXPECTATIONS OFFICIAL DECISIONS EMERGENCY PROCEDURES SPONTANEOUS IMPROVISATION EMERGENCY COOR- DINATION PLANS CONTINGENCY PLANNING IN REAL TIME THE EMERGENCY ENVIRONMENT
  12. 12. SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT Worst case Envelope of outcomes Best case 'upward' counter-factual analysis 'downward' counter-factual analysis EMERGENCY PLAN incorporation of scenario into plan stress test of plan systems methodology data and basic information emergency simulation - desktop - command post - field exercise consider practicalities
  13. 13. Operational Locally generated needs International liaison Locally generated needs Global monitoring and coordination Local response capacity Local response capacity Local response capacity Regional harmonisation Local response capacity Regional harmonisation National coordination CIVIL PROTECTION SYSTEM
  14. 14. Strategic coordination operations centre conference room Tactical coordination operations centre operations room Tactical coordination operations centre operations room Task force site of incident Task force site of incident Task force site of incident Mutual assistance agreements Communications protocols Communications protocols Communications protocols Management system Operations direction coordination post Operations direction coordination post Operations direction coordination post
  15. 15. LIFE SAVING RESPONSE • search and rescue • crisis evacuation • medical surge capacity • intensive care capacity • epidemiology and disease prevention DAMAGE LIMITATION • infrastructure protection • impact reduction measures • bracing of damaged structures LAUNCHING RECOVERY • route clearance • infrastructure repair • debris management EMERGENCY RESPONSE CAPACITY AND CAPABILITY
  16. 16. CONCLUSIONS
  17. 17. Caesar Augustus (63 BC –AD 14) "The more complex a problem, the simpler the solution should be."
  18. 18. H.L. Mencken (1880-1956) "For every complex problem, there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong."
  19. 19. In the future:- • planning scenarios will have to take account of cascading effects and their points of escalation • recovery planning will have to take place before impact • the public will have to be more involved
  20. 20. Civil protection will need to be:- • a fully integrated, capillary system (local to national) • an order of magnitude more powerful and better resourced than it is now • adept at damage limitation • more representative of the population than it is now • taken seriously as a vital public service • democratic and transparent
  21. 21. Thank you for listening david.alexander@ucl.ac.uk emergency-planning.blogspot.com slideshare.net/dealexander

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