Lincoln Crowne Engineering Mining Services Weekly 20062014
Gresham "Group 150" - August 2010
1. AUGUST 2010
Group 150
August 2010
Darren Martin
Gresham Advisory Partners
dmartin@gresham.com.au
+61 8 9486 7077
+61 412 144 719
ASX RESOURCES - GROUP 150
We are pleased to present the August edition of ‘Group 150’, a ranking of the top 150 ASX listed resources companies (excluding oil and
gas), by market capitalisation.
During July, the RSPT went AWOL (much to the delight of a number of miners) and the MRRT was born (much to the despair of a
(smaller) number of miners). In this edition of the Group 150, we have updated the “RSPT-impact” chart from the May edition to test
once more the hypothesis that international focussed companies are outperforming their domestic peers. The average market value
of domestic focussed companies since the proposed RSPT was announced has declined 3.8% (vs 13.6% and 12.2% at end of June and
May respectively). International focused companies increased 3.9% (vs a decline of 1.1 and 0.9% at end of June and May respectively).
Separately, we have introduced the “MRRT-impact” chart, to assess the impact on the market capitalisation of the Group 150 since the
announcement of the proposed MRRT. The market value of the domestic focussed companies has increased on average 15.4% versus
the international focussed companies only 7.6%, recapturing some of the ground lost during the 2 months the RSPT was on the table.
Both charts affirm industry views that the MRRT is continuing to have negative impact on resource sector valuations.
The market value of the Group 150 at the end of July was $494 billion, up 5.8% from June. The entry point into the Group 150 for July
was $77.0 million versus $65.6 million for June. The ASX/S&P 200 Resources Index rose 4.6% in the month, while the ASX All Ordinaries
and ASX/S&P 200 Index increased 4.2% and 4.5% respectively.
While commentators continue to assess the influence of China on the global economy, two events during the month support the
overriding impact China holds in determining economic prosperity.
First, the strategic importance of rare earths has once again become a focus as the China Ministry of Commerce announced rare earths
export quotas for the second half of 2010, representing a 70% reduction in volumes available for users outside of China. Additionally,
the authorities announced that rare earth prices would be set and published by the central government on a monthly basis. ASX listed
Arafura, Alkane and Lynas increased 69.0%, 51.1% and 39.4% respectively during July.
Second, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced that based on preliminary data China has now overtaken the United States
to become the world’s largest energy consumer. China’s power consumption rose 14.14% year-on-year to 352 billion kilowatt-hours in
June and consumption in the first half year reached 2.01 trillion kilowatt-hours, up 21.57% on a year-on-year basis. Since 2000, China’s
energy demand has doubled, yet is only around one-third of the OECD average on a per capita basis.
These developments point to continued growth in demand for energy commodities (oil, coal, uranium and natural gas) from the most
populous nation on the planet. Notably, in mid-July Bloomberg reported that China has commenced purchasing yellowcake at the rate
of about 5,000 tonnes per annum, roughly double current consumption. Several uranium focussed companies are among the biggest
movers in the Group 150 this month, including Energy and Minerals - 104.5% and Deep Yellow – 57.7%.
We start this month at Diggers and Dealers, which will provide a barometer for current market sentiment.....see you there!
Gresham Advisory Partners Limited
Gresham Advisory Partners is a leading Australian mergers and acquisitions/corporate advisory
Edition 5 business and one of Australia’s largest and highest ranking independent corporate advisors.
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4. Group 150
Group 150 mArkeT cApiTALiSATion ASX indeX performAnce - JuLy
Group 150 SecTor mArkeT cApiTALiSATion - JuLy
Market Capitalisation (A$b)
merGer & AcquiSiTionS - Announced in JuLy
Percent Premium - Premium -
Date Value Consideration
Target Acquirer Sought 1 Day Prior 1 Month Prior
Announced (A$m) Offered
(%) (%) (%)
22-Jul-2010 BCD Resources NL (ASX:BCD) Bendigo Mining Ltd. (ASX:BDG) 61.4 100.0 44.0 20.0 Equity
21-Jul-2010 NGM Resources Ltd. (ASX:NGM) Paladin Energy, Ltd. (ASX:PDN) 21.0 77.5 61.07 64.61 Equity
8-Jul-2010 Padbury Mining Limited (ASX:PDY) Fe Limited (ASX:FEL) 23.6 100.0 44.23 8.18 Combinations
5-Jul-2010 Centennial Coal Co. Ltd. (ASX:CEY) Banpu Minerals (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. 2,268.3 80.11 40.27 42.2 Cash
5-Jul-2010 North Queensland Metals Ltd (ASX:NQM) Heemskirk Consolidated Ltd. (ASX:HSK) 84.0 100.0 56.0 43.8 Equity
Source: Capital IQ
Announced Australian Resources (excluding oil and gas) Mergers and Acquisitions >A$10m
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5. AUGUST 2010
Group 150 - “rSpT impAcT” - BASed on proJecT/S LocATion
Following the demise of the RSPT, we have updated the “RSPT-Impact” chart to assess the rebound impact on domestic focussed
miners. Separately on page 6, we commenced tracking the “MRRT-Impact”.
The average market value of domestic focussed companies since the proposed RSPT was announced has declined 3.8% (vs a decline of
13.6% in June and 12.2% at end of May). International focused companies increased 3.9% (vs an increase on 1.1% in June and a decline
of 0.9% at end of May).
Market Capitalisation - Performance Since Proposed RSPT Announced
Overseas/
Monthly Performance Overseas Domestic Total
Domestic
End of May
Spread of "Group 150" by Project/s Location 49 85 15 149
- Simple Average Return (0.9%) (12.2%) (10.0%)
End of June
Spread of "Group 150" by Project/s Location 50 83 15 148
- Simple Average Return 1.1% (13.6%) (15.5%)
End of July
Spread of "Group 150" by Project/s Location 49 83 16 148
- Simple Average Return 3.9% (3.8%) (6.9%)
Only 149 companies in May data set as Vantage Goldfields was a new IPO during period, Only 148 companies in June data set as Vantage Goldfields and Mungana were new IPO’s during period, Only 148 companies in July data set as Mungana and Guildford
Coal were new IPO’s during period
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6. Group 150
Group 150 - “mrrT impAcT” - BASed on proJecT/S LocATion
The “MRRT-Impact” chart below, assesses the impact on market capitalisation of the Group 150 companies since the announcement of
the MRRT. A rebound in value has been witnessed by a number of domestically focussed companies who are not currently captured
in the MRRT drag net.
The average market value of domestic focussed companies since the proposed MRRT was announced has rebounded 15.4%, while
international focussed peers increased only 7.6%. Global diversified companies have also recovered 14.3% during the same period.
The bottom chart in each of the sector performance pages compares the performance of each company since the announcement of
the RSPT versus the announcement of the MRRT, in most cases depicting a recapture of value.
Market Capitalisation - Performance Since Proposed MRRT Announced
Greater proportion of
Domestic focussed companies
Overseas/
Monthly Performance Overseas Domestic Total
Domestic
End of July
Spread of "Group 150" by Project/s Location 49 84 16 149
- Simple Average Return 7.6% 15.4% 14.3%
Only 149 companies in July data set as Guildford Coal was new IPO’s during period
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7. AUGUST 2010
BASe meTALS - SecTor performAnce
Share Price Performance - July 2010
Copper Nickel Zinc
Share Price Performance
Share Price Performance - Since 1 Jan 2010
Share Price Performance
RSPT vs MRRT - Change in Market Value
RSPT
MRRT
Share Price Performance
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8. Group 150
coAL - SecTor performAnce
Share Price Performance - July 2010
Share Price Performance
Share Price Performance - Since 1 Jan 2010
Share Price Performance
RSPT vs MRRT - Change in Market Value
RSPT
MRRT
Share Price Performance
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9. AUGUST 2010
diverSified - SecTor performAnce induSTriAL minerALS - SecTor performAnce
Share Price Performance - July 2010
Share Price Performance
Share Price Performance
Share Price Performance - Since 1 Jan 2010
Share Price Performance
Share Price Performance
RSPT vs MRRT - Change in Market Value
RSPT RSPT
MRRT MRRT
Share Price Performance
Share Price Performance
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10. Group 150
GoLd - SecTor performAnce
Share Price Performance - July 2010
Share Price Performance
Share Price Performance - Since 1 Jan 2010
Share Price Performance
RSPT vs MRRT - Change in Market Value
RSPT
MRRT
Share Price Performance
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11. AUGUST 2010
iron ore - SecTor performAnce
Share Price Performance - July 2010
Share Price Performance
Share Price Performance - Since 1 Jan 2010
Share Price Performance
RSPT vs MRRT - Change in Market Value
RSPT
MRRT
Share Price Performance
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12. Group 150
urAnium - SecTor performAnce
Share Price Performance - July 2010
Share Price Performance
Share Price Performance - Since 1 Jan 2010
Share Price Performance
RSPT vs MRRT - Change in Market Value
RSPT
MRRT
Share Price Performance
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14. recenT reSourceS TrAnSAcTionS
Group 150
Mergers and Acquisitions
Mergers and Acquisitions
2010 2009
GRAM
2009 2009 2008 2008 2006
Advised BHP Advised BG Advised Guandong Advised Allied Gold Advised Kalahari Advised Gem Advised IAMGOLD
Billiton on its Group on its $1bn Rising on its $216m on its $54m Minerals on its Diamonds on its Corporation on its
$204m offer for takeover offer for cornerstone acquisition of $140m proposed $300m acquisition $265m acquisition
United Minerals Pure Energy investment in Pan Australian merger with of Kimberley of Gallery Gold.
Corporation. Resources Aust. Solomons Gold. Extract Resources. Diamonds.
Limited.
TakeoverDefence
Takeover Defence
2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2007 2007
Advised Polaris Advised Indophil Advised Advised Energy Advised Brandrill Advised Summit Advised Tethyan on
Metals NL on on $545m Centaurus Metals on its $86m Limited on its Resources on its its $220m
$178m takeover recommended Resources on its proportional takeover $45m takeover A$1.2bn takeover competing takeover
offer by Mineral offer from Zijin $20m merger offer by China offer by Ausdrill by Paladin Energy. offer by Crosby and
Resources with Glengarry Guangdong Nuclear Limited. Antogafasta/Barrick.
Limited. Resources. Power Group.
Strategic Advisory, JointJoint Ventures and Capital Markets
Strategic Advisory, Ventures and Capital Markets
2010 2010 2009 2008 2009/08 2008 2008
Advised BHP Introduced Advised BHP Advised Advised Iluka on its Advised Advised Iluka
Billiton on its Denham Capital to Billiton on the Bannerman $114m Murchison Metals Resources on its
US$116bn iron Trans Tasman disposal of the Resources on its institutional on its joint venture $54m Narama coal
ore production Resources resulting Yabulu Nickel financing with placement and with Mitsubishi. divestment to
joint venture with in NZ iron sands refinery. Resource Capital $353m accelerated Xstrata.
Rio Tinto. investment. Funds. right issue.
Gresham Advisory Partners Limited
A.B.N. 97 003 344 269
Level 17, 167 Macquarie Street, Level 10, 1 Collins Street, Level 3, 28 The Esplanade,
Sydney NSW 2000 Melbourne VIC 3000 Perth WA 6000
Telephone: 61 2 9221 5133 Telephone: 61 3 9664 0300 Telephone: 61 8 9486 7077
Facsimile: 61 2 9221 6814 Facsimile: 61 3 9650 7722 Facsimile: 61 8 9486 7024
Website: www.gresham.com.au
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