Jared Kearby's Talk at EV Momentum Berlin, 21 June 2018

1. EVs & Manufacturing
How the adoption of EVs is impacting automotive manufacturing
and what does this mean for the future?
Prepared for EV Momentum
by Power Technology Research
Jared Kearby, Director - Industrial

2. Outline
• PTR Introduction
• EV Overview
• Manufacturing Focus
• Future Supply Chain Impacts

3. Power Technology Research
Type of Work We Do for Our Clients
Market Sizing
& Forecasting
Competitive
Analysis
Market
Accessibility
Installation
Base
Annual
Market
Growth
Forecast
Market
Shares
SWOT
Analysis
Benchmarking Cost
Breakdown
Business
Practices
Regulatory
Landscape
Product &
Market Trends
Sales Channel
Analysis
Project
Specific
Business
Development
Support

4. EV Overview
• The electric vehicle has seen early market success before.
• Today, EVs are on track to impact the status quo of the automotive sector.
• Wide-scale adoption of EVs will impact the automotive industry on all fronts.
Regardless of whether the EV market grows by a 15% or 35% CAGR into
2025, an impact will be evident.

5. Manufacturing Focus

6. Industrial Manufacturing
2017 Autmotive Manufacturing Machinery ($b)
ICE Vehicles EVs (HEV, PHEV, BEV, FCEV) Source: PTR
~$25b~$575b

7. Component Reduction
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Gearbox (Stages) Differential Driveshaft Clutch/Flywheel
AvgNo.ofComponents
Average Number of Power-transfer Components in ICE Vehicle and EV
ICEs* BEVs** Wheel-hub EVs
**front-wheel drive, single-motor with a single-speed gearbox.
*rear-wheel drive, 8-cylinder engine & 5-speed manual transmission
Source: PTR

8. Key Impacts on the Machine Tool Market
• In this case, machine tools refers to the manufacturing of machinery used in
the cutting or forming of metals.
• Not all components will be affected, but several component markets are at risk
for reduced demand.

9. Risk Outlook by Component Group
ICE Component Risk Level in 2035 ICE Component Risk Level in
2035
Piston
 Gearbox 
Valve
 Power Transfer System* 
Rod
 Chassis 
Oil/Fuel Supply System
 Wheels/Tires 
Exhaust system
 Suspension 
Timing Gear
 Body Panels 
Camshaft
 Brake Systems 
Crankshaft
 Interior/Seating 
Engine block/head
 Steering Systems 
= High Risk = Moderate Risk  = Low Risk
*Power transfer system includes clutches, flywheels, driveshafts (incl. CV joints) and differentials Source: PTR

10. Machine Tools Market
Automotive
40%
Other Industrial
60%
2017 Machine Tools Market Split ($b)
Automotive Other Industrial
Source: PTR
$39.2b
$58.8b

11. EVs & Machine Tools
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Units(m)
Revenue($B) Automotive Machine Tools Market & EV Shipment Forecasts, 2016 to 2030,
Billion($), Units(m)
Automotive Machine Tools Market Size ($B) EV Annual Forecast (m Units)
Source: IEA, PTR

12. What does this mean?
Short-term
• Increased orders for machine tool manufacturers due to demand for both HEV,
PHEV and ICE components.
Long-term
• Automotive machine tool manufacturers will see reduced orders for ICE
machinery.
• Results in a shift to alternative business models. There are components that
will need to be produced for BEVs as well, such as battery casings, gears and
driveshafts, suspension coils, A-frames, etc.

13. Examples
ZF
• In 2016, the E-Mobility Division was formed in response to the increase BEV and PHEV
demand.
GKN
• As a result of a higher growth rate for EVs, GKN is now offering eDrive systems for the
OEMs. Although eDrive sales accounted for only 1% of GKN Driveline division revenue
in 2016, this number is expected to grow as EVs continue to penetrate the automotive
market
MAGNA
• Has invested in developing a BEV drivetrain solution for the OEMs. In 2016, the
company won its first BEV contract for Jaguar’s I-Pace, which is planned to start being
delivered in the second half of 2018.

14. Future Supply Chain Impacts

15. Supply Chain Today

16. Supply Chain Evolution

17. Future Factors of Success
• Vertical integration
• Ties to the automotive sector
• Willingness to invest in alternative revenue sources
“The time to repair the roof is when the sun is shining.”

18. Questions

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Contact Us
Sunnyvale,
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Munich,
Germany
London,
UK
Tokyo,
Japan
Jared Kearby
Director – Industrial
M. +49 0162 173 2018
jared.kearby@powertechresearch.com
Seoul,
South Korea