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The Planetary Boundaries
A “safe operating” space for humanity




                    Source: The Anthropocene: From Global Change to Planetary Stewardship, 2011
Emissions




Global GHG emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6, PFCs and HFCs) 2005, CO2-e per 0.1 degree grid cell.
Sea Ice Extent




Arctic sea ice extent averaged for September 2012 was 3.61 million square kilometers. This was 3.43
million square kilometers below the 1979 to 2000 average extent. September 2012 ice extent was
690,000 square kilometers less than the previous record low for the month that occurred in 2007


                             Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center
Too late
for 2 ?




           Source: http://www.pwc.co.uk/sustainability-climate-change/publications/low-carbon-economy-index-challenges-nov12.jhtml
Low Carbon Economy Index
2012: Business challenges
       Annual average global decarbonisation rate since 2000 is 0.8%
                                                                                                      The world economy now
Average annual     Implied                               IPCC ‘best guess’                            needs to reduce its carbon
rate of global     concentration                         global temp                                  intensity by 5.1% every year
decarbonisation to levels ppm CO2e                       increase above pre-                          to 2050 for a fair chance of
2050 (%                                                  industrial levels                            limiting warming to 2oC
                                                                                                      above pre-industrial levels.
         1.6%                  1,200 ppm                                 6oC
         3.0%                   750 ppm                                  4oC                          Even to have a reasonable
         4.5%                   550 ppm                                  3oC                          prospect of getting to a 4oC
         5.1%                   450 ppm                                  2oC                          scenario would imply nearly
                                                                                                      quadrupling the current rate
PwC analysis, IPCC AR4 WG1, Chapter 10, Table 10.8
                                                                                                      of decarbonisation.




                                       Source: http://www.pwc.co.uk/sustainability-climate-change/publications/low-carbon-economy-index-challenges-nov12.jhtml
Unburnable Carbon: Are the world’s financial markets
carrying a carbon bubble?



                                                              Carbon Budget 2000-2050

                                                       Carbon budget *                       886 GtCO2
                                                       Used by 2011                          (one third)

                                                       Remaining carbon budget               565 GtCO2



                                                       Proven fossil fuel reserves           (2,795) GtCO2

                                                       Reserves top 100 listed coal; oil &   (745) GtCO2
                                                       gas companies
                                                       Can be burned unabated                20% total
                                                                                             reserves
                                                       Technically unburnable                (80% of assets)




                            Source: Carbon Tracker initiative
Source: Carbon Tracker initiative
Cumulative emissions 2012 update
by activity




The total cumulative emissions from 2000 to the end of 2012 will be 434
GtCCO2 . In just 12 years, almost half of the 886 billion tonne global carbon
budget between 2000 and 2049 has been used

                                Source: Unburnable carbon: Rational investment for sustainability, NEF
Australian National Greenhouse Gas Inventory




                  Figure 1: National Greenhouse Gas Inventory—excluding LULUCF (land use, land use change, and
                  forestry)—quarterly emissions growth rates, seasonally adjusted and trend, June quarter 2002–2012.




                 Source: Climate Commission: The Critical Decade: International Action on Climate Change
Global action on climate change




            Source: Climate Commission: The Critical Decade: International Action on Climate Change
Climate change state of play

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Climate change state of play

  • 1. The Planetary Boundaries A “safe operating” space for humanity Source: The Anthropocene: From Global Change to Planetary Stewardship, 2011
  • 2. Emissions Global GHG emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6, PFCs and HFCs) 2005, CO2-e per 0.1 degree grid cell.
  • 3. Sea Ice Extent Arctic sea ice extent averaged for September 2012 was 3.61 million square kilometers. This was 3.43 million square kilometers below the 1979 to 2000 average extent. September 2012 ice extent was 690,000 square kilometers less than the previous record low for the month that occurred in 2007 Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center
  • 4. Too late for 2 ? Source: http://www.pwc.co.uk/sustainability-climate-change/publications/low-carbon-economy-index-challenges-nov12.jhtml
  • 5. Low Carbon Economy Index 2012: Business challenges Annual average global decarbonisation rate since 2000 is 0.8% The world economy now Average annual Implied IPCC ‘best guess’ needs to reduce its carbon rate of global concentration global temp intensity by 5.1% every year decarbonisation to levels ppm CO2e increase above pre- to 2050 for a fair chance of 2050 (% industrial levels limiting warming to 2oC above pre-industrial levels. 1.6% 1,200 ppm 6oC 3.0% 750 ppm 4oC Even to have a reasonable 4.5% 550 ppm 3oC prospect of getting to a 4oC 5.1% 450 ppm 2oC scenario would imply nearly quadrupling the current rate PwC analysis, IPCC AR4 WG1, Chapter 10, Table 10.8 of decarbonisation. Source: http://www.pwc.co.uk/sustainability-climate-change/publications/low-carbon-economy-index-challenges-nov12.jhtml
  • 6. Unburnable Carbon: Are the world’s financial markets carrying a carbon bubble? Carbon Budget 2000-2050 Carbon budget * 886 GtCO2 Used by 2011 (one third) Remaining carbon budget 565 GtCO2 Proven fossil fuel reserves (2,795) GtCO2 Reserves top 100 listed coal; oil & (745) GtCO2 gas companies Can be burned unabated 20% total reserves Technically unburnable (80% of assets) Source: Carbon Tracker initiative
  • 8. Cumulative emissions 2012 update by activity The total cumulative emissions from 2000 to the end of 2012 will be 434 GtCCO2 . In just 12 years, almost half of the 886 billion tonne global carbon budget between 2000 and 2049 has been used Source: Unburnable carbon: Rational investment for sustainability, NEF
  • 9. Australian National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Figure 1: National Greenhouse Gas Inventory—excluding LULUCF (land use, land use change, and forestry)—quarterly emissions growth rates, seasonally adjusted and trend, June quarter 2002–2012. Source: Climate Commission: The Critical Decade: International Action on Climate Change
  • 10. Global action on climate change Source: Climate Commission: The Critical Decade: International Action on Climate Change