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Disruptive Energy Technologies & Models

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By Carl Malbrain, Blijdorp. Presented at CSW Summit Arctic Circle 2015. Learn more and join us at our next event: www.crowdsourcingweek.com

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Disruptive Energy Technologies & Models

  1. 1. DISRUPTIVE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES CSW Summit Arctic Circle March 12 & 13, 2015 Dr. Carl M. Malbrain 1
  2. 2. I will tell you the story of my life 2
  3. 3. Why we need an energy paradigm shift 3
  4. 4. And what we can learn from nature 4
  5. 5. The old paradigm of centralized power 5
  6. 6. Over transmission & distribution lines 6
  7. 7. To a passive, addicted consumer • 7
  8. 8. As an adolescent, I had a dream 8
  9. 9. Nuclear was disruptive > 50 years ago 9
  10. 10. Military did deploy nuclear successfully 10
  11. 11. Some nuclear dreams never made it 11
  12. 12. Fusion was my first disillusionment 12 •
  13. 13. Fast breeder didn’t live up to its promise • Kalkar, Germany • 13 Creys-Malville, France
  14. 14. Achilles heels of nuclear power 14
  15. 15. 15 Fukushima disaster the end of nuclear?
  16. 16. Despite lower energy densities… Fuel to produce 1 MWh 4 g enriched Uranium 16
  17. 17. Fossil fuels still rule the world 17 •
  18. 18. Biofuels cannot replace fossil fuels 18
  19. 19. A lot of energy still is wasted Transport 75% wasted Electricity 66% wasted Overall >50% wasted Lighting 90% wasted Fossil fuels >80% Bio- mass <5% 19 Nu- clear <5%
  20. 20. Developing countries fuel rapid growth 20 0 1500 3000 4500 6000 7500 9000 2010 2030 2050 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2010 2030 2050 Population, million Energy per person, toe 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 2010 2030 2050 Total energy, Mtoe Non-OECD World -50% OECD X 2 +50% X 3 X 4
  21. 21. Radical change required 21 Club of Rome report: “Limits to growth”
  22. 22. The new paradigm shift 22
  23. 23. New energy paradigm characteristics OLD PARADIGM  Few & centralized  At specific locations  Bigger, more expensive, more distant  Extra transmission & distribution  Base load  Dual rates (peak & off-peak)  Separate producers & consumers  Big power lines;  Alternating Current (Georges Westinghouse)  Supply management NEW PARADIGM  Many & decentralized  Everywhere & ubiquitous  Smaller, cheaper, nearer  No transmission or distribution  Intermittent  Variable rates  So-called prosumers or consuppliers  Wireless;  Direct Current (Thomas Edison)  Demand management Carl M. Malbrain © 23
  24. 24. Offshore wind still old paradigm 24
  25. 25. Only solar holds true promise 25
  26. 26. Solar cost down >1 order of magnitude 1€/W 26
  27. 27. 27 Solar – only one major disadvantage
  28. 28. Paradigm shift allows for crowdsourcing 28 Forbenefit Forprofit Centralised / Global Decentralised / Local NETARCHIC CAPITALISM  Facebook  Google GLOBAL COMMONS  Linux  Wikipedia  Arduino  Wikispeed DISTRIBUTED CAPITAL  Bitcoin  P2P (peer-to-peer) marketplaces [Source: Michel Bauwens, P2P Foundation] LOCAL RESILIENCE  Car sharing  Yard sharing  Skill sharing
  29. 29. 29 First energy platforms start to emerge
  30. 30. Successfully crowdfunded projects 30
  31. 31. Solar Roadways successful on Indiegogo 31
  32. 32. But will it be affordable? 32
  33. 33. Vuollerim – plenty of natural resources • 33
  34. 34. Building communities 34 FOR THE EMBETTERMENT OF MANKIND
  35. 35. 35
  36. 36. Thank you for your attention 36
  37. 37. Biography Carl Malbrain  With an engineering degree from the KULeuven, a MSc in nuclear engineering and a PhD in energy technology & policy from MIT, Carl has held senior management positions in the energy, water & environmental sectors for the last thirty (30) years both in the U.S. and Europe  Currently, Carl is an independent consultant and senior advisor, involved with start-ups in Belgium and setting up a “energy for all” impact fund.  Carl is also exploring how alumni & social networks could be deployed to help solve global problems we face today, such as inequality, poverty & global debt and to achieve energy, food, resource, economic, financial & environmental security for all.  Carl is also President of the MIT Club of Belgium and Chairman of Blijdorp, a non-profit organization helping mentally and physically disabled children and adults in Belgium and Romania. 37 Mobile: +32 474 98 44 17 E-mail: carl.malbrain@alum.mit.edu
  38. 38. APPENDICES Supporting slides 38 Carl M. Malbrain ©
  39. 39. Despite lower energy densities… ENERGY DENSITY FUEL TO PRODUCE 1 MWh Carl M. Malbrain © Fuel type MJ/kg MJ/dm³ Nuclear fusion 3.0E08 4.25E08 Uranium-235 7.7E07 1.5E09 Anthracite 33 72 Crude oil 42 37 Natural gas 54 10 350 kg coal 250 liter of fuel 4 g enriched Uranium300 m³ natural gas 39
  40. 40. Fossil fuels still rule the world COAL GASOIL Carl M. Malbrain © Year Mtoe % 1973 1501 25% 2012 3879 29% 2035 4743 27% Year Mtoe % 1973 2817 46% 2012 4205 31% 2035 4967 28% Year Mtoe % 1973 979 16% 2012 2844 21% 2035 4631 26% Year Mtoe % 1973 5296 87% 2012 10927 82% 2035 14341 82% 40
  41. 41. Biomass cannot replace fossil fuels BIOMASS BIOGASBIOFUELS Carl M. Malbrain © Year Mtoe % 2012 3879 33-56% 2035 4743 40-68% 4billion ha world forests Year Mtoe % 2012 4205 5 – 12.5x 2035 4967 6 – 15x 1.4billion ha arable agricultural land Year Mtoe % 2012 2844 25 – 40% 2035 4631 40 – 63% 41
  42. 42. Developing countries fuel fast growth Carl M. Malbrain © OECD 2010 2030 2050 Population Million 1200 1400 1500 Energy per person Toe 5.5 3.0 2.8 Total energy Mtoe 6600 4200 4200 Non-OECD 2010 2030 2050 Population Million 5400 6700 7500 Energy per person Toe 1.0 2.0 2.8 Total energy Mtoe 5400 13400 21000 World 2010 2030 2050 Population Million 6600 8100 9000 Energy per person Toe 1.8 2.2 2.8 Total energy Mtoe 12000 17600 25200 - 50% x 2 +50% x 3 x 4 42
  43. 43. Energy, food, water & ores become increasingly interlinked Carl M. Malbrain © Fertiliser Feed Food Fuel Fiber 43
  44. 44. Disruptive energy technologies IMPACT AS EARLY AS 2015  Unconventional gas  Electric vehicles  Advanced ICE (internal combustion engines)  Solar photovoltaics (PV)  LED lighting MARKET IMPACT AFTER 2020  Grid-scale storage  Digital power conversion  Compressor-less air- conditioning and electro- chromic windows  Clean coal  Biofuels and electro-fuels Carl M. Malbrain © [Source: McKinsey Sustainability & resource productivity report, 2012] 44
  45. 45. Disruptive innovators in energy business Carl M. Malbrain © [Source: GreenBiz, July 2014] Company Founded Disruption 1. Comverge 1974 Adding intelligence to a not so smart grid 2. Exxon Mobil 1870 Unconventional oil & gas 3. First Solar 1999 Low cost utility scale solar 4. Google 1998 Connecting tech and green tech 5. Hexcel 1946 Ultra light weight materials 6. NRG Energy 1992 Driving change in traditional energy supply 7. Johnson Controls 1885 Creating energy savings at massive scale 8. Panasonic 1918 Enabling electric vehicles and Photovoltaics 9. Philips 1891 Reinventing the light bulb 10. Solar City 2006 Solar for the 99 percent 11. Tesla Motors 2003 Advancement of electric vehicles 12. Vestas 1945 Turning wind into the lowest cost power 45 (Bloomberg, 26/Feb/15) -- Google Inc. is making its largest bet yet on renewable energy, a $300 million investment to support at least 25,000 SolarCity Corp. rooftop power plants. (Bloomberg, 27/Feb/14) -- Musk’s $5 Billion Tesla Gigafactory May Start Bidding War
  46. 46. Crowdfunding Cleantech examples 46 Company Platform Amount Funded Link 1. Sondors Electric Bike Indiegogo $3.661.654 4882% https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/so ndors-electric-bike/x/10029783 2. Solar Roadways Indiegogo $2.210.455 In Demand http://www.solarroadways.com/ 3. Lucid Energy OurCrowd $1.650.000 Funded http://www.lucidenergy.com/ 4. enVerid OurCrowd $1.568.500 Funded http://enverid.com/site/ 5. LIFX - lightbulb reinvented Kickstarter $1.314.542 1314% http://lifx.co/ 6. BioLite BaseCamp Stove Kickstarter $1.032.443 2294% http://biolitestove.com/ 7. Glowing Plants Kickstarter $484.013 745% http://www.glowingplant.com/ 8. Solar Liberator Indiegogo $413.559 1654% http://www.solarliberator.com/ 9. URB-E Indiegogo $317.784 212% http://urb-e.com/ 10. Future Home Indiegogo $200.870 100% https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/fut ure-home-self-powered-smart- home/x/10029783 Carl M. Malbrain ©
  47. 47. First energy CS/CF* platforms emerge 47 Company Location Year Link 1. Gridshare California 2015 http://www.gridshare.com/ 2. Solar Mosaic California 2013 https://joinmosaic.com/ 3. Sunfunder California 2013 http://sunfunder.com/ 4. Sunnycrowd Germany http://www.sunnycrowd.de/ 5. Skipso U.K. http://www.skipso.com 6. Abundance generation U.K. 2012 https://www.abundancegeneration.com / 7. Kiva Green U.S. 2005 http://www.kiva.org/green 8. Green Crowd Netherlands 2012 https://greencrowd.nl/ 9. Clean Reach U.S. 2015 http://cleanreach.com/ 10. The Green Crowd Australia 2015 http://www.thegreencrowd.com/ Carl M. Malbrain © * Crowdsourcing/Crowdfunding
  48. 48. My 1st conviction: building integrated PV* Rooftop tiles Transparent glassFaçade materials Carl M. Malbrain © 48 * Photovoltaïcs
  49. 49. My 2nd conviction: PE/PV* floors & roads Floor tiles Rail & roadwaysSidewalk & bike lane Carl M. Malbrain © 49 * Piëzo-electric & photovoltaïc
  50. 50. My 3rd conviction: wireless power transfer In the home In spaceOn the road Carl M. Malbrain © 50
  51. 51. My favorite technologies to watch Building integrated photovoltaïcs (PV) Wireless power transmission PV roads, bikeways & sidewalks Carl M. Malbrain ©  Flanders Drive built 600m road to test inductive charging  Wireless power transfer for the home, automotive, military & medical (WiTricity)  Electric floors tiles (Energy Floors, Pavegen Systems,..)  100m solar bike lane (Solaroad)  Solar Roadways  PV Rooftop tiles (Monier, Solar Slate,..  PV façade paints (Nano Flex Power)  PV transparant glass (Onyx Solar, PolySolar)  Electric doorknobs  Electric floors 51
  52. 52. MIT battery & solar power breakthroughs Carl M. Malbrain © Professor Research 1. Prof. Jeffrey Grossman A new molecule azo-benzene using carbon nanotubes to lock in stored solar thermal energy 2. Prof. Karen Gleason A way to print a solar cell on about anything using low temperatures and vapor 3. Prof. Gang Chen A revolutionary new way to make solar power – micro solar thermal – 8x more efficiently 4. Prof. Vladimir Bulovic Incorporating a layer of new transparent organic PV into window glazing, eliminating 2/3 of the costs of installing thin-film technology 5. Graduate students A virus, M13, to precisely space apart carbon nanotubes to effectively convert solar energy 6. Researchers A new recharge flow battery that doesn’t rely on expensive membranes to generate and store electricity 52 [Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA]
  53. 53. Biomimicry: what nature can tell us Artificial leaf  Ex-MIT professor Daniel Nocera, low cost photochemical device to split (even dirty) water into hydrogen, commercialized by Sun Catalytix Moth’s eye  Florent Baudoire, from Swiss EPFL, a highly efficient solar absorbing cell collecting light based on moth’s eye. Carl M. Malbrain © 53

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