Colliers International has released a market report “India Office Property Market Overview, October 2012”. The report gives an overall macroeconomic overview followed by latest real estate updates and trends in each city through supply and demand, rental and vacancy as well as market prognosis for 2012 onwards. Highlights include, cautious occupier demand and ample supply kept rental values stable across major office markets. Fewer transactions were recorded in markets like Chennai, Bangalore, Pune and Kolkata however; Mumbai and NCR witnessed increased activity in terms of leasing quarter on quarter. Looking ahead, rental values are predicted to remain stable in the near future.
2. 3Q 2012 | OFFICE
Research & forecast report
SYDNEY CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
research & forecast Report
India office market
MACRO ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
• India’s GDP growth has slowed to a 3 year
low recorded at 5.3% in the April-June Gross Domestic Product at Factor Cost
quarter of the current fiscal. The wholesale 10.0%
9.0%
price index reached 7.81 per cent in 8.0%
September, and 7.55 per cent in August 2012 7.0%
6.0%
this year much above the RBI’s comfort level. 5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
• As the inflation remained higher, the central 2.0%
bank did not provide any repo rate cut this 1.0%
0.0%
quarter. However, in September 2012, the
Jan - Mar 09
Apr - Jun 09
Jul - Sep 09
Oct - Dec 09
Jan - Mar 10
Apr - Jun 10
Jul - Sep 10
Oct - Dec 10
Jan - Mar 11
Apr - Jun 11
Jul - Sep 11
Oct - Dec 11
Jan - Mar 12
Apr - Jun 12
ECONOMIC BAROMETER RBI did reduced the (CRR) Cash Reserve
Ratio by 25 basis points to induce immediate
Sep-11 Sep-12
liquidity in the market in its mid year policy
FDI in Real Estate
review. Earlier, in July 2012, the RBI also 16,000
REPO RATE 8.50% 8.00%
reduced its SLR (Statutory Liquidity 14,000
Requirement) by 1%.
12,000
REVERSE REPO
7.00% 7.00% 10,000
RATE 8,000
INR Crore
CRR 6.00% 4.50% • Foreign direct investment (FDI) in India was 6,000
around $1.76 billion in July 2012. Sectors 4,000
which received large FDI inflows were
2,000
INFLATION 9.78% 7.81%
0
services, pharmaceuticals, construction and
2005 - 06
2006 - 07
2007 - 08
2008 - 09
2009 - 10
2010 - 11
2011-12
April -Jun 12
PRIME
LENDING Rate
10.00% - 10.75% 10.00% - 10.50% power.
DEPOSIT RATE
(<1 YEAR)
7.75% - 9.50% 8.00% - 9.25% • In 3Q 2012, the Indian Rupee remained under
Foreign Ex-
pressure and closed at 54.31 to 1.00 USD on 120
BSE Sensex & Realty Index
change 47.55 54.31 15th Sep 2012. The INR further weekend 115
INR - USD against Euro and close at INR 71.30 to 1.00 110
105
Euro. 100
INR- Euro 65.60 71.30
95
• The new Finance Minister P Chidambaram 90
85
has taken a slew of reform measures such as 80
Return on Alternative Investments diesel price hike, cap on the number of
2-Jul-12
14-Jul-12
27-Jul-12
9-Aug-12
22-Aug-12
4-Sep-12
17-Sep-12
subsidised cooking gas cylinders per family,
Sep-11 Sep-12 YoY %
liberalising foreign holding norms in aviation, * Rebase to 100 BSE Sensex Realty Index
Change
multi-brand retail, non-news broadcasting
Gold 27,750 31,925 15.05% and power exchanges sectors, and divesting 120
Exchange Rates
its stake in five companies. However, most of 115
SILVER 63,359 63,188 -0.27% these reform measures faced strong 110
opposition and implementation of these
105
EQUITY (BSE 100
measures is still uncertain. 95
SENSEX) 16,876 18,542 9.87%
90
REALTY INDEX 1,799 1,734 -3.61% 85
80
1-Jul-12
14-Jul-12
27-Jul-12
9-Aug-12
22-Aug-12
4-Sep-12
17-Sep-12
Note : As on 15th of September, 2011 and September, 2012
USD Euro
* Rebase to 100
Source: Colliers International India Research
www.colliers.com
3. INDIA | 3Q 2012 | OFFICE
MUMBAI
AVAILABLE Supply in Prime Areas
• Approximately 9.4 million sq ft of commercial
Grade ‘A’ office space was available for fit-
Goregoan / JVLR
Kalina
Worli / Prabhadevi 8% 1%
Powai 1%
out in 3Q 2012. More than 65% of this total 4%
Malad
available space was concentrated in Andheri 5% Thane / LBS
22%
East, Thane/LBS Marg and Lower Parel. Navi Mumbai
6%
CBD
• Project launched this quarter includes “One 1%
BKC” by Wadhwa Developers at Bandra-
Kurla-Complex. This Project constitutes Lower Parel
19%
approximately 1.2 million sq ft of Grade ‘A’ Andheri East
24%
office space and expected to be completed by BKC
9%
2Q 2015.
• In 3Q 2012, Grade ‘A’ new supply added up
MUMBAI to approximately 1.2 million sq ft. Project or
3Q 2012 GRADE ‘A’ AND GRADE ’B’
part of project contributing to this new supply RENTAL VALUES
was “The Capital” by Wadhwa Developers at
CITY OFFICE BAROMETER Bandra-Kurla-Complex. 300
250
2Q 2012 3Q 2012 • Absorption in Mumbai remained upbeat 200
during the surveyed period and a few large 150
INR Per Sq ft Per Month
VACANCY floor plates deals were concluded. Despite 100
increased absorption, average rents for grade
ABSORPTION 50
‘A’ office premises remained stable in almost 0
all of the micro-markets.
CBD
Andheri East
BKC
Lower Parel
Malad
Navi Mumbai
Powai
Worli/Prabhdevi
Goregaon / JVLR
Kalina
Thane / LBS
Andheri East (IT)
Lower Parel (IT)
Malad (IT)
Navi Mumbai (IT)
Powai (IT)
Goregaon / JVLR (IT)
Thane / LBS (IT)
CONSTRUCTION
RENTAL VALUE • Looking ahead, rental values are expected
Grade A Grade B
to remain stable as substantial under
construction supply in the pipeline is expected
to enter the market in the near future.
GRADE ‘A’ AVERAGE RENTAL VALUE • This quarter the LBS Marg flyover has prime office space rental trend
become operational, which is a part of a
245
Forecast
crucial Santacruz-Chembur Link Road. The 420
210 565 meter long and 17 meter wide flyover is 370
320
175
expected to decongest the overall traffic by 270
helping more than 50,000 commuters daily. 220
INR per Sq ft per Month
140
INR per Sq ft per Month
170
105 120
70
70
20
1Q2008
2Q2008
3Q2008
4Q2008
1Q2009
2Q2009
3Q2009
4Q2009
1Q2010
2Q2010
3Q2010
4Q2010
1Q2011
2Q2011
3Q2011
4Q2011
1Q2012
3Q2012
2Q2012
35
0 CBD Andheri East Malad BKC
1Q2008
2Q2008
3Q2008
4Q2008
1Q2009
2Q2009
3Q2009
4Q2009
1Q2010
2Q2010
3Q2010
4Q2010
1Q2011
2Q2011
3Q2011
4Q2011
1Q2012
2Q2012
3Q2012F
4Q2012F
1Q2013F
2Q2013F
3Q2013F
Lower Parel Navi Mumbai Powai Worli /
Prabhadevi
Goregaon Kalina Thane / LBS
/ JVLR
MARKET TRANSaCTIONS
CLIENT building name AREA LOCATION TRANSACTION
(Sq. Ft.) TYPE
Ceva Logistics The Qube 18,540 Andheri (E) Lease
Cipla Peninsula Business Park 250,000 Lower Parel Lease
Delta Corp. FCH House 55,000 Lower Parel Lease
Rediffusion Indiabulls Finance Centre 30,000 Lower Parel Lease
Tata AIG Peninsula Business Park 32,000 Lower Parel Lease
Technip KTI Boomerang 56,000 Andheri (E) Lease
Source: Colliers International India Research
Colliers International | p. 3
4. INDIA | 3Q 2012 | OFFICE
DELHI
AVAILABLE Supply in Prime Areas
• pproximately 1.7 million sq ft of grade
A
‘A’ office space was ready for fit-out in 3Q Connaught Place 2%
2012. The majority of this supply was located Nehru Place 10%
in suburban locations such as Jasola and
Saket.
• During this quarter, the major office Jasola 59%
development completed were “Konnectus”
by Pratibha Group along Minto Road and Saket 29%
“Ambience Corporate Tower” by Ambience
Group at Vasant Kunj. These projects jointly
contributed around 0.3 million of grade
‘A’ office space addition to the city total
inventory.
delhi 3Q 2012 GRADE ‘A’ AND GRADE ’B’
• In 3Q 2012, new commercial projects were RENTAL VALUES
launched in the city including, “Suncity
CITY OFFICE BAROMETER Projects” by Suncity Group at East Delhi, 400
“Ambience Towers” by Ambience Group at 350
300
2Q 2012 3Q 2012 Rohini and “Redfort Capital Parsvnath Towers” 250
by Parsvnath Ltd at Connaught Place. All of
INR per Sq Ft per Month
200
VACANCY these projects are expected to contribute 150
more than 0.7 million sq ft of grade ‘A’ office 100
ABSORPTION
space to the city’s total inventory. 50
0
CONSTRUCTION
Nehru Place
Netaji Subhash
Jasola
Saket
Place
Connaught
• In 3Q 2012, absorption remained positive
RENTAL VALUE and rental values for grade ‘A’ properties
Grade A Grade B
increased in the range of 3 to 5% quarter on
quarter across the micro-markets. Looking
ahead, the absorption momentum is likely to
continue and rentals are expected to increase
GRADE ‘A’ AVERAGE RENTAL VALUE moderately due to limited addition of supply. prime office space rental trend
300 • The Delhi State Government has sanctioned 450
INR 520 crore for the Municipal Corporation
Forecast
400
275
250
of Delhi (MCD) to redevelop 674 roads, each 350
300
225
over 60 feet wide. The project would further 250
INR per Sq ft per Month
INR per Sq ft per Month
200 improve the infrastructure of the city and is 200
175 expected to complete by the end of 2014. 150
100
150
50
125
0
2Q2008
3Q2008
4Q2008
1Q2008
2Q2009
3Q2009
4Q2009
1Q2009
2Q2010
3Q2010
4Q2010
1Q2010
2Q2011
3Q2011
4Q2011
1Q2012
2Q2012
3Q2012
100
2Q2008
3Q2008
4Q2008
1Q2009
2Q2009
3Q2009
4Q2009
1Q2010
2Q2010
3Q2010
4Q2010
1Q2011
2Q2011
3Q2011
4Q2011
1Q2012
2Q2012
3Q2012F
4Q2012F
1Q2013F
2Q2013F
3Q2013F
Nehru Place Jasola Cannaught Saket
place
Netaji Subhash
MARKET TRANSaCTIONS
CLIENT building name AREA LOCATION TRANSACTION
(Sq. Ft.) TYPE
Avnet Jasola DLF Tower A 2,500 Jasola Lease
Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation The Capital Court 8,930 Munirka Lease
Nexant Vasant Square Mall 2,500 Vasant Kunj Lease
TATA AIG Kanchenjunga 10,000 Connaught Place Lease
Source: Colliers International India Research
p. 4 | Colliers International