Presented by:
Patrick Duffy MCR
President | Houston
Chairman Colliers Retail Specialty Group
Direct +1 713 830 2112 | Mobile +1 727 460 3215
Main +1 713 222 2111 |
2. Houston’s Brag Book
2011-2012 Headlines
“Houston driving Texas' growth, economist says”
“Houston ranks as North America’s fastest-growing metro area”
“Strong year for jobs in Houston”
“Houston MSA personal income increased 5.5% in 2011”
“Houston remains popular with foreign real estate investors”
“Houston tops U.S. retail job growth”
“High-end retail thriving in Houston”
“Houston gains most retail trade jobs in U.S. since 2007 “
3. HOUSTON OFFICE
HOUSTON OFFICE MARKET INDICATORS
YE 2010 YE 2011
CITYWIDE NET ABSORPTION (SF) 476K 2.6M 79% of leases
CITYWIDE AVERAGE VACANCY 16.0% 15.5% we tracked in
CITYWIDE AVERAGE RENTAL RATE $23.08 $23.20
2011 were
CLASS A RENTAL RATE
CBD $35.00 $40.00
energy industry
SUBURBAN $27.00 $31.00
CLASS A VACANCY tenants
CBD 10.4% 14.3%
SUBURBAN 17.5% 14.4%
4. HOUSTON OFFICE
ABSORPTION, NEW SUPPLY & VACANCY RATES
3,000,000
17.0%
2,500,000
2,000,000 15.0%
1,500,000 13.0%
1,000,000
11.0%
500,000
9.0%
0
-500,000 7.0%
-1,000,000 5.0%
Net Absorption New Supply Vacancy
5. HOUSTON OFFICE
Sales by Total $ (mil)
Rolling 12-mo. Total Quarterly Vol.
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
Data Source:
1,000
500
0
Q1 '08 Q1 '09 Q1 '10 Q1 '11
Average Price ($) Per SF Average Cap Rate (Yield)
Houston United States Houston United States
300
11%
250
200 9%
150
7%
100
5%
50
0 3%
Q1 '08 Q1 '09 Q1 '10 Q1 '11 Q1 '08 Q1 '09 Q1 '10 Q1 '11
6. HOUSTON INDUSTRIAL
HOUSTON INDUSTRIAL MARKET INDICATORS
YE 2010 YE 2011
CITYWIDE NET ABSORPTION (SF) 4.8M 4.4M Build-to-suit
and spec
CITYWIDE AVERAGE VACANCY (%) 6.2% 5.2%
construction on
the uptick as
CITYWIDE AVERAGE RENTAL RATE ($) $5.33 $5.45
vacancy
NEW SUPPLY DELIVERED (SF) 2.3M 1.7M decreases to
5.2%
4Q UNDER CONSTRUCTION (SF) 200K 2.9M
11. HOUSTON RETAIL
Sales by Total $ (mil)
Rolling 12-mo. Total Quarterly Vol.
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
Data Source:
500
0
Q1 '08 Q1 '09 Q1 '10 Q1 '11
Average Price ($) Per SF Average Cap Rate (Yield)
Houston United States Houston United States
250
11%
200
9%
150
7%
100
50 5%
0 3%
Q1 '08 Q1 '09 Q1 '10 Q1 '11 Q1 '08 Q1 '09 Q1 '10 Q1 '11
12. HOUSTON MULTI-FAMILY
HOUSTON MULTI-FAMILY MARKET INDICATORS
YE 2010 YE 2011 Class A
UNITS ABSORBED 15,722 14,036 apartments
had lower
CITYWIDE AVERAGE VACANCY (%) 14.1% 12.5%
than average
CITYWIDE AVERAGE RENTAL RATE ($)
vacancy of
$723 $749
6.6% in
UNITS DELIVERED 3,852 4,963 December
2011
4Q UNDER CONSTRUCTION 2,367 2,831
14. HOUSTON MULTI-FAMILY
Sales by Total $ (mil)
Rolling 12-mo. Total Quarterly Vol.
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
Data Source:
500
0
Q1 '08 Q1 '09 Q1 '10 Q1 '11
Average Price ($) Per SF Average Cap Rate (Yield)
Houston United States Houston United States
120,000
100,000 11%
80,000 9%
60,000
7%
40,000
20,000 5%
0 3%
Q1 '08 Q1 '09 Q1 '10 Q1 '11 Q1 '08 Q1 '09 Q1 '10 Q1 '11
15. HOUSTON HOTEL
HOUSTON HOTEL MARKET INDICATORS
YE 2010 YE 2011
TOTAL UNITS 72,111 74,450
CITYWIDE AVERAGE VACANCY (%) 44.7% 42.0%
CITYWIDE AVERAGE DAILY RATE ($) $88.66 $92.50
UNITS DELIVERED 4,244 2,339
17. HOUSTON HOTEL
Sales by Total $ (mil)
Rolling 12-mo. Total Quarterly Vol.
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400 Data Source:
200
0
Q1 '08 Q1 '09 Q1 '10 Q1 '11
Average Price ($) Per SF Average Cap Rate (Yield)
Houston United States Houston United States
250,000
11%
200,000
9%
150,000
100,000 7%
50,000 5%
0 3%
Q1 '08 Q1 '09 Q1 '10 Q1 '11 Q1 '08 Q1 '09 Q1 '10 Q1 '11
18. 2012 CONSTRUCTION COMMENTS
General contractors and subcontractors actively pursuing new hires
It is not uncommon to have at least one of the bidders decline (workload)
Construction costs have not shown significant increases, but….
We are seeing subcontractor quotes holding their prices for as little as one week
due to material volatility.
Confirming that the market is still unpredictable, manufacturers are not stocking
a number of standard construction items.
We are still experiencing long delivery times on light fixtures and doors.
In working with contractors that have a national presence, we continually hear
“Thank God we’re in Houston!”
19. 2012 TRENDS
CONTINUED JOB GROWTH ESPECIALLY IN ENERGY
OCCUPANCY, ABSORPTION, AND RATES WILL INCREASE
CONSTRUCTION UPTICK IN ALL REAL ESTATE SECTORS
INCREASED DEMAND FOR LAND
VALUES WILL INCREASE NEAR TERM
OCCUPANCY COSTS WILL INCREASE NEAR & MID TERM