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TRENDS 2012
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET UPDATE

                         January 31, 2012
Houston’s Brag Book
2011-2012 Headlines



“Houston driving Texas' growth, economist says”
             “Houston ranks as North America’s fastest-growing metro area”

“Strong year for jobs in Houston”
         “Houston MSA personal income increased 5.5% in 2011”
“Houston remains popular with foreign real estate investors”
                        “Houston tops U.S. retail job growth”
“High-end retail thriving in Houston”
       “Houston gains most retail trade jobs in U.S. since 2007 “
HOUSTON OFFICE


      HOUSTON OFFICE MARKET INDICATORS
                                YE 2010   YE 2011


 CITYWIDE NET ABSORPTION (SF)   476K      2.6M      79% of leases

 CITYWIDE AVERAGE VACANCY       16.0%     15.5%      we tracked in
 CITYWIDE AVERAGE RENTAL RATE   $23.08    $23.20
                                                      2011 were
 CLASS A RENTAL RATE

   CBD                          $35.00    $40.00
                                                    energy industry
   SUBURBAN                     $27.00    $31.00
 CLASS A VACANCY                                       tenants
   CBD                          10.4%     14.3%

   SUBURBAN                     17.5%     14.4%
HOUSTON OFFICE



               ABSORPTION, NEW SUPPLY & VACANCY RATES
  3,000,000
                                                           17.0%
  2,500,000

  2,000,000                                                15.0%

  1,500,000                                                13.0%
  1,000,000
                                                           11.0%
    500,000
                                                           9.0%
          0

   -500,000                                                7.0%

  -1,000,000                                               5.0%




                   Net Absorption   New Supply   Vacancy
HOUSTON OFFICE

                       Sales by Total $ (mil)
                                   Rolling 12-mo. Total                     Quarterly Vol.
           4,500
           4,000
           3,500
           3,000
           2,500
           2,000
               1,500
                                                                                                                           Data Source:
               1,000
                500
                  0
                       Q1 '08               Q1 '09                 Q1 '10                    Q1 '11


       Average Price ($) Per SF                                                        Average Cap Rate (Yield)
                         Houston                United States                                         Houston            United States
300
                                                                                11%
250
200                                                                             9%

150
                                                                                7%
100
                                                                                5%
 50
 0                                                                              3%
      Q1 '08             Q1 '09        Q1 '10             Q1 '11                   Q1 '08             Q1 '09    Q1 '10          Q1 '11
HOUSTON INDUSTRIAL



   HOUSTON INDUSTRIAL MARKET INDICATORS

                                   YE 2010   YE 2011

CITYWIDE NET ABSORPTION (SF)         4.8M      4.4M     Build-to-suit
                                                          and spec
CITYWIDE AVERAGE VACANCY (%)         6.2%      5.2%
                                                       construction on
                                                        the uptick as
CITYWIDE AVERAGE RENTAL RATE ($)     $5.33    $5.45
                                                          vacancy
NEW SUPPLY DELIVERED (SF)            2.3M       1.7M    decreases to
                                                            5.2%
4Q UNDER CONSTRUCTION (SF)           200K      2.9M
HOUSTON INDUSTRIAL



                ABSORPTION, NEW SUPPLY & VACANCY RATES
   6,000,000                                             8%


   5,000,000                                             7%

                                                         6%
   4,000,000
                                                         5%
   3,000,000
                                                         4%
   2,000,000
                                                         3%
   1,000,000
                                                         2%

           0                                             1%

   -1,000,000                                            0%



                    Absorption   New Supply   Vacancy
HOUSTON INDUSTRIAL

               Sales by Total $ (mil)
                                  Rolling 12-mo. Total                  Quarterly Vol.
      900
      800
      700
      600
      500
      400
      300
                                                                                                                           Data Source:
      200
      100
         0
               Q1 '08                   Q1 '09                 Q1 '10                     Q1 '11


      Average Price ($) Per SF                                                      Average Cap Rate (Yield)
                        Houston                United States                                       Houston            United States
 80
                                                                              11%
 60
                                                                              9%
 40
                                                                              7%

 20                                                                           5%

 0                                                                            3%
      Q1 '08            Q1 '09        Q1 '10          Q1 '11                     Q1 '08            Q1 '09    Q1 '10           Q1 '11
HOUSTON RETAIL



      HOUSTON RETAIL MARKET INDICATORS

                                   YE 2010   YE 2011
                                                          Restaurant
CITYWIDE NET ABSORPTION (SF)         2.8M       1.8M
                                                       owners expanding
CITYWIDE AVERAGE VACANCY (%)         8.0%      7.2%
                                                       Houston footprint

CITYWIDE AVERAGE RENTAL RATE ($)    $14.85    $15.13


NEW SUPPLY DELIVERED (SF)            393K      687K


4Q UNDER CONSTRUCTION (SF)           231K      617K
HOUSTON RETAIL



                ABSORPTION, NEW SUPPLY & VACANCY RATES
   6,000,000                                             12%

   5,000,000
                                                         10%
   4,000,000
                                                         8%
   3,000,000

   2,000,000                                             6%

   1,000,000
                                                         4%
           0
                                                         2%
   -1,000,000

  -2,000,000                                             0%




                     Absorption   New Supply   Vacancy
HOUSTON RETAIL

                       Sales by Total $ (mil)
                                   Rolling 12-mo. Total                 Quarterly Vol.
               2,500

           2,000

               1,500

               1,000
                                                                                                                         Data Source:
                500

                  0
                       Q1 '08                Q1 '09            Q1 '10                    Q1 '11


       Average Price ($) Per SF                                                 Average Cap Rate (Yield)
                       Houston           United States                                        Houston               United States
250
                                                                         11%
200
                                                                          9%
150
                                                                          7%
100

 50                                                                       5%

 0                                                                        3%

      Q1 '08            Q1 '09      Q1 '10            Q1 '11                Q1 '08                Q1 '09   Q1 '10            Q1 '11
HOUSTON MULTI-FAMILY



  HOUSTON MULTI-FAMILY MARKET INDICATORS

                                   YE 2010   YE 2011     Class A
UNITS ABSORBED                      15,722    14,036   apartments
                                                        had lower
CITYWIDE AVERAGE VACANCY (%)         14.1%    12.5%
                                                       than average

CITYWIDE AVERAGE RENTAL RATE ($)
                                                       vacancy of
                                     $723      $749
                                                         6.6% in
UNITS DELIVERED                      3,852     4,963    December
                                                          2011
4Q UNDER CONSTRUCTION                2,367     2,831
HOUSTON MULTI-FAMILY



             ABSORPTION, NEW SUPPLY & VACANCY RATES
    25,000                                                     18%

                                                               16%
    20,000
                                                               14%
    15,000
                                                               12%
    10,000                                                     10%

     5,000                                                     8%

                                                               6%
        0
                                                               4%
    -5,000
                                                               2%

   -10,000                                                     0%



                  Units Absorbed   Units Delivered   Vacancy
HOUSTON MULTI-FAMILY

                       Sales by Total $ (mil)
                                    Rolling 12-mo. Total                 Quarterly Vol.
             3,500

             3,000

             2,500

             2,000

              1,500

             1,000
                                                                                                                        Data Source:
               500

                   0
                       Q1 '08             Q1 '09                Q1 '10                    Q1 '11


           Average Price ($) Per SF                                              Average Cap Rate (Yield)
                        Houston               United States                                        Houston            United States
120,000
100,000                                                                    11%

80,000                                                                     9%
60,000
                                                                           7%
40,000
20,000                                                                     5%

     0                                                                     3%
          Q1 '08          Q1 '09     Q1 '10            Q1 '11                 Q1 '08               Q1 '09    Q1 '10           Q1 '11
HOUSTON HOTEL



      HOUSTON HOTEL MARKET INDICATORS

                                  YE 2010    YE 2011

TOTAL UNITS                         72,111   74,450


CITYWIDE AVERAGE VACANCY (%)       44.7%      42.0%


CITYWIDE AVERAGE DAILY RATE ($)    $88.66    $92.50


UNITS DELIVERED                     4,244      2,339
HOUSTON HOTEL



                SUPPLY & VACANCY RATES
    80,000                               50%

                                         45%
    70,000
                                         40%
    60,000
                                         35%
    50,000
                                         30%

    40,000                               25%

                                         20%
    30,000
                                         15%
    20,000
                                         10%
     10,000
                                         5%

         0                               0%



                    Supply   Vacancy
HOUSTON HOTEL

                       Sales by Total $ (mil)
                                     Rolling 12-mo. Total                  Quarterly Vol.
            1,400

            1,200

            1,000

             800

             600

             400                                                                                                          Data Source:
             200

                   0
                       Q1 '08             Q1 '09                  Q1 '10                    Q1 '11


          Average Price ($) Per SF                                                  Average Cap Rate (Yield)

                          Houston                United States                                        Houston            United States
250,000
                                                                              11%
200,000
                                                                              9%
150,000

100,000                                                                       7%

 50,000                                                                       5%

     0                                                                        3%
          Q1 '08            Q1 '09      Q1 '10           Q1 '11                  Q1 '08              Q1 '09     Q1 '10          Q1 '11
2012 CONSTRUCTION COMMENTS



 General contractors and subcontractors actively pursuing new hires

 It is not uncommon to have at least one of the bidders decline (workload)

 Construction costs have not shown significant increases, but….

 We are seeing subcontractor quotes holding their prices for as little as one week
      due to material volatility.

 Confirming that the market is still unpredictable, manufacturers are not stocking
       a number of standard construction items.

 We are still experiencing long delivery times on light fixtures and doors.

 In working with contractors that have a national presence, we continually hear

                            “Thank God we’re in Houston!”
2012 TRENDS




      CONTINUED JOB GROWTH ESPECIALLY IN ENERGY


      OCCUPANCY, ABSORPTION, AND RATES WILL INCREASE


      CONSTRUCTION UPTICK IN ALL REAL ESTATE SECTORS

      INCREASED DEMAND FOR LAND


      VALUES WILL INCREASE NEAR TERM


      OCCUPANCY COSTS WILL INCREASE NEAR & MID TERM
Trends 2012 Houston Market Slides

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Trends 2012 Houston Market Slides

  • 1. TRENDS 2012 COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET UPDATE January 31, 2012
  • 2. Houston’s Brag Book 2011-2012 Headlines “Houston driving Texas' growth, economist says” “Houston ranks as North America’s fastest-growing metro area” “Strong year for jobs in Houston” “Houston MSA personal income increased 5.5% in 2011” “Houston remains popular with foreign real estate investors” “Houston tops U.S. retail job growth” “High-end retail thriving in Houston” “Houston gains most retail trade jobs in U.S. since 2007 “
  • 3. HOUSTON OFFICE HOUSTON OFFICE MARKET INDICATORS YE 2010 YE 2011 CITYWIDE NET ABSORPTION (SF) 476K 2.6M 79% of leases CITYWIDE AVERAGE VACANCY 16.0% 15.5% we tracked in CITYWIDE AVERAGE RENTAL RATE $23.08 $23.20 2011 were CLASS A RENTAL RATE CBD $35.00 $40.00 energy industry SUBURBAN $27.00 $31.00 CLASS A VACANCY tenants CBD 10.4% 14.3% SUBURBAN 17.5% 14.4%
  • 4. HOUSTON OFFICE ABSORPTION, NEW SUPPLY & VACANCY RATES 3,000,000 17.0% 2,500,000 2,000,000 15.0% 1,500,000 13.0% 1,000,000 11.0% 500,000 9.0% 0 -500,000 7.0% -1,000,000 5.0% Net Absorption New Supply Vacancy
  • 5. HOUSTON OFFICE Sales by Total $ (mil) Rolling 12-mo. Total Quarterly Vol. 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 Data Source: 1,000 500 0 Q1 '08 Q1 '09 Q1 '10 Q1 '11 Average Price ($) Per SF Average Cap Rate (Yield) Houston United States Houston United States 300 11% 250 200 9% 150 7% 100 5% 50 0 3% Q1 '08 Q1 '09 Q1 '10 Q1 '11 Q1 '08 Q1 '09 Q1 '10 Q1 '11
  • 6. HOUSTON INDUSTRIAL HOUSTON INDUSTRIAL MARKET INDICATORS YE 2010 YE 2011 CITYWIDE NET ABSORPTION (SF) 4.8M 4.4M Build-to-suit and spec CITYWIDE AVERAGE VACANCY (%) 6.2% 5.2% construction on the uptick as CITYWIDE AVERAGE RENTAL RATE ($) $5.33 $5.45 vacancy NEW SUPPLY DELIVERED (SF) 2.3M 1.7M decreases to 5.2% 4Q UNDER CONSTRUCTION (SF) 200K 2.9M
  • 7. HOUSTON INDUSTRIAL ABSORPTION, NEW SUPPLY & VACANCY RATES 6,000,000 8% 5,000,000 7% 6% 4,000,000 5% 3,000,000 4% 2,000,000 3% 1,000,000 2% 0 1% -1,000,000 0% Absorption New Supply Vacancy
  • 8. HOUSTON INDUSTRIAL Sales by Total $ (mil) Rolling 12-mo. Total Quarterly Vol. 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 Data Source: 200 100 0 Q1 '08 Q1 '09 Q1 '10 Q1 '11 Average Price ($) Per SF Average Cap Rate (Yield) Houston United States Houston United States 80 11% 60 9% 40 7% 20 5% 0 3% Q1 '08 Q1 '09 Q1 '10 Q1 '11 Q1 '08 Q1 '09 Q1 '10 Q1 '11
  • 9. HOUSTON RETAIL HOUSTON RETAIL MARKET INDICATORS YE 2010 YE 2011 Restaurant CITYWIDE NET ABSORPTION (SF) 2.8M 1.8M owners expanding CITYWIDE AVERAGE VACANCY (%) 8.0% 7.2% Houston footprint CITYWIDE AVERAGE RENTAL RATE ($) $14.85 $15.13 NEW SUPPLY DELIVERED (SF) 393K 687K 4Q UNDER CONSTRUCTION (SF) 231K 617K
  • 10. HOUSTON RETAIL ABSORPTION, NEW SUPPLY & VACANCY RATES 6,000,000 12% 5,000,000 10% 4,000,000 8% 3,000,000 2,000,000 6% 1,000,000 4% 0 2% -1,000,000 -2,000,000 0% Absorption New Supply Vacancy
  • 11. HOUSTON RETAIL Sales by Total $ (mil) Rolling 12-mo. Total Quarterly Vol. 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Data Source: 500 0 Q1 '08 Q1 '09 Q1 '10 Q1 '11 Average Price ($) Per SF Average Cap Rate (Yield) Houston United States Houston United States 250 11% 200 9% 150 7% 100 50 5% 0 3% Q1 '08 Q1 '09 Q1 '10 Q1 '11 Q1 '08 Q1 '09 Q1 '10 Q1 '11
  • 12. HOUSTON MULTI-FAMILY HOUSTON MULTI-FAMILY MARKET INDICATORS YE 2010 YE 2011 Class A UNITS ABSORBED 15,722 14,036 apartments had lower CITYWIDE AVERAGE VACANCY (%) 14.1% 12.5% than average CITYWIDE AVERAGE RENTAL RATE ($) vacancy of $723 $749 6.6% in UNITS DELIVERED 3,852 4,963 December 2011 4Q UNDER CONSTRUCTION 2,367 2,831
  • 13. HOUSTON MULTI-FAMILY ABSORPTION, NEW SUPPLY & VACANCY RATES 25,000 18% 16% 20,000 14% 15,000 12% 10,000 10% 5,000 8% 6% 0 4% -5,000 2% -10,000 0% Units Absorbed Units Delivered Vacancy
  • 14. HOUSTON MULTI-FAMILY Sales by Total $ (mil) Rolling 12-mo. Total Quarterly Vol. 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Data Source: 500 0 Q1 '08 Q1 '09 Q1 '10 Q1 '11 Average Price ($) Per SF Average Cap Rate (Yield) Houston United States Houston United States 120,000 100,000 11% 80,000 9% 60,000 7% 40,000 20,000 5% 0 3% Q1 '08 Q1 '09 Q1 '10 Q1 '11 Q1 '08 Q1 '09 Q1 '10 Q1 '11
  • 15. HOUSTON HOTEL HOUSTON HOTEL MARKET INDICATORS YE 2010 YE 2011 TOTAL UNITS 72,111 74,450 CITYWIDE AVERAGE VACANCY (%) 44.7% 42.0% CITYWIDE AVERAGE DAILY RATE ($) $88.66 $92.50 UNITS DELIVERED 4,244 2,339
  • 16. HOUSTON HOTEL SUPPLY & VACANCY RATES 80,000 50% 45% 70,000 40% 60,000 35% 50,000 30% 40,000 25% 20% 30,000 15% 20,000 10% 10,000 5% 0 0% Supply Vacancy
  • 17. HOUSTON HOTEL Sales by Total $ (mil) Rolling 12-mo. Total Quarterly Vol. 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 Data Source: 200 0 Q1 '08 Q1 '09 Q1 '10 Q1 '11 Average Price ($) Per SF Average Cap Rate (Yield) Houston United States Houston United States 250,000 11% 200,000 9% 150,000 100,000 7% 50,000 5% 0 3% Q1 '08 Q1 '09 Q1 '10 Q1 '11 Q1 '08 Q1 '09 Q1 '10 Q1 '11
  • 18. 2012 CONSTRUCTION COMMENTS  General contractors and subcontractors actively pursuing new hires  It is not uncommon to have at least one of the bidders decline (workload)  Construction costs have not shown significant increases, but….  We are seeing subcontractor quotes holding their prices for as little as one week due to material volatility.  Confirming that the market is still unpredictable, manufacturers are not stocking a number of standard construction items.  We are still experiencing long delivery times on light fixtures and doors.  In working with contractors that have a national presence, we continually hear “Thank God we’re in Houston!”
  • 19. 2012 TRENDS  CONTINUED JOB GROWTH ESPECIALLY IN ENERGY  OCCUPANCY, ABSORPTION, AND RATES WILL INCREASE  CONSTRUCTION UPTICK IN ALL REAL ESTATE SECTORS  INCREASED DEMAND FOR LAND  VALUES WILL INCREASE NEAR TERM  OCCUPANCY COSTS WILL INCREASE NEAR & MID TERM