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• Cognizant Reports




Understanding U.S. Consumer
Electronics Retailing
   Executive Summary                                            consumer regardless of shopper location to
                                                                deliver the complete shopping experience.
   The U.S. consumer electronics (CE) retail industry
   has endured severely fluctuating fortunes in             •   Optimize retail floor space through increased
   the last decade. A swiftly changing CE market                “store inside of a store” concepts and reduction
   landscape, continually reshaped by the forces                of future store size footprints.
   of continuous product innovation and change, is          •   Use in-store space for increased demonstra-
   forcing the entire CE retail industry to confront            tion of “connected shopper solutions,” showing
   challenges across multiple fronts. These issues              how all elements of a complete basket can
   include the following:                                       work together prior to a shopper exiting the
                                                                premises.
   •   The advent of the frugal and sophisticated U.S.
       consumer, thanks to the “Great Recession.”           •   Save precious capital and reduce operational
                                                                costs by embracing emerging service delivery
   •   Debilitating price wars fought by three distinct
                                                                models to transition select commoditized
       retail trade formats — discount vs. pure-play vs.
       online retail.                                           business processes to cloud computing-enabled
                                                                business process as a service (BPaaS).
   •   Significant competitive advantage enjoyed by
                                                                                              U.S. GDP Growth Rate (%)
       online retailers due in part to lower overhead
       and tax laws that have not caught up with the        U.S. CE Industry Growth
       new rules of the retail game.                        vs. GDP Growth
   •   Ever-changing and demanding “millennial”
                                                                Millions
       consumer preferences.
                                                                $200,000                                                               6%
   These forces have left CE retailers scrambling for                                                                                  4%
                                                                $175,000
   cover under their onslaught. In the recent past, we                                                                                 2%
   have witnessed the bankruptcy of a large player,             $150,000
                                                                                                                                       0%
   Circuit City, as well as the less-than-stellar growth                                                                               -2%
   of other key players. It is clear that CE retailers or       $125,000                                                               -4%
   CE retail divisions of organizations such as Best                                                                                   -6%

   Buy, Target, Walmart, RadioShack, etc. will need             $100,000                                                               -8%
                                                                           2006    2007     2008      2009     2010         2011
                                                                                                             (estimated) (projected)
   to re-evaluate and re-align their strategies to face
                                                                              U.S. CE Industry Growth Rate
   the new realities of the marketplace.
                                                                              U.S. GDP Growth Rate (%)

   In our view, winning CE retailers must:                  Source: CEA 2011; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis;
                                                            Goldman Sachs Estimates 2011
   •   Create integrated channels — a “store without
                                                            Figure 1
       boundaries” — that offer all capabilities to the


   cognizant reports | december 2011
The Current State of U.S. Electronics Retailing
      Key               Key Product                    Key
                                                                                                    Characteristics
   Categories            Categories                  Retailers
                  Video Products                    Best Buy            •	 TV market growth has diminished on category maturation,
                  (Television, navigation           Walmart               lack of catalyst from 3D/connected TVs.
                  products, digital cameras and     Costco              •	 TVs greater than 46’’ average size are expected to garner
                  accessories, digital camcorders   Sears                 55% of total sales in FY 2012.
                  and accessories, e-Readers,       hhgregg             •	 TV barely re-emerges when penetration hits ~30%, as sales tend to flatten.
                  DVD and Blu-ray players, etc.)    Amazon              •	 An estimated addressable market of 17M annual transactions/connections.
  Consumer                                                              •	 Largest percentage of all photos will be taken through digital still cameras,
                                                                          at 51% in 2010, followed by mobile phone, at 42%.
  Electronics
                  Audio Products                    Best Buy            •	 Stand-alone MP3 players have seen a significant dent in sales due to the
                  (MP3 players and accessories,     Walmart               adoption of phones as a personal music device. The dominant market
                  home theater audio systems        Costco                leader Apple has seen iPod sales decline 6% year-over-year and account
                  and components, musical           Sears                 for less than 8% of Apple’s revenue.
                  instruments and mobile            hhgregg
                  electronics, etc.)                Amazon

                  PC/Notebook/Netbook               Best Buy            •	 Continuing margin erosion due to commoditization of category
                  (Related subscription service     Apple                 (except Apple products) because of product proliferation and
                  commissions, hard drives,         Dell                  product cycle time compression.
                  networking equipment and          Walmart
                  related accessories such          Staples
                  as printers.)                     Officemax
                                                    OfficeDepot
                                                    Amazon
                  Tablets                           Apple               •	 Tablet market opportunity: FY12E $12B U.S. market (+50%).
  Home Office                                       Best Buy            •	 Apple remains the leader in the tablet PC market with a 54% share.
                                                    Amazon              •	 RadioShack is expected to be the net winner due to its sharp over-index in
                                                    RadioShack            tablets vs. other more PC-centric competitors.
                  Mobile Phones and                 Communications      •	 FY12E $34B U.S. market (+6%)
                  Connections                       service providers   •	 Estimated channel mix: 65% of total points of purchase
                                                    Best Buy              (77,000 in 2010) are direct channels.
                                                    Amazon              •	 Among indirect channels, retailers constitute 56% of the share.
                                                    RadioShack          •	 For the first time, a majority (54%) of all new mobile phone handsets
                                                                          purchased by U.S. consumers are smartphones.
                 Appliances and                     Sears               •	 $14B appliances industry.
                 Small Electronics                  Lowe’s
  Appliances                                        The Home Depot
                                                    Best Buy
                                                    hhgregg
                 Gaming Hardware                    Game Stop           •	 FY12E $23.5B U.S. market (-2%).
                 and Software                       Walmart             •	 $15B gaming software value chain.
                 (DVDs, Blu-rays, CDs, digital      Best Buy            •	 15M trade-in units across industry.
 Entertainment
                 downloads and computer             Amazon              •	 $2B console-based market opportunity
                 software.)                                               (console subscription points card + downloadable content).


Source: Cognizant Research Center analysis
Figure 2



The Market Landscape                                                    encing market share gains following Circuit City’s
                                                                        demise, the major players have essentially seen
The U.S. retail electronics market tallied revenues
                                                                        flat growth a year after the fact, indicating that
of $180 billion in 2010 across five key categories:
                                                                        revenue increases in 2009 for some major players
consumer electronics (video and audio products);
                                                                        were purely a result of the redistribution of Circuit
home office (PCs, notebooks, netbooks, tablets,
                                                                        City sales rather than incremental business gains
mobile phones, etc.); appliances; entertainment
                                                                        (see Figure 4, next page).
hardware and software (see Figures 1 and 2); and
services.                                                               Reality struck in 2010 and continued in 2011, with
                                                                        revenues of major players growing only by 4.5%;
Total sales of the Top 10 electronics retailers
                                                                        marginal revenue growth was driven primarily by
are expected to grow by 6% in 2011 to reach
                                                                        new product introductions, such as tablets and
$110 billion (see Figure 3). Absent Apple’s stellar
                                                                        netbooks, and not from existing product lines, as
performance, the previous two business cycles
                                                                        well as from an increase in store fronts and retail
(2008-2010) have been characterized by anemic
                                                                        floor space. It is clear that shifting consump-
revenue growth, the demise of Circuit City and
                                                                        tion patterns and product distribution models,
flatlining in the key category of TVs. After experi-


                                      cognizant reports                  2
Top 10 Players: Store-Based CE Retailing by Domestic Revenues

             $40

  Billions   $30


             $20


             $10


              $0
                    Best Buy   Walmart      Apple   Staples   Game Stop       Target   Costco   Sam's Club RadioShack OfficeMax

                   � 2008      � 2009     � 2010

Source: Dealerscope’s Top 101 CE Retailers, March 2011
Figure 3



especially from physical to online sales, have had                        in providing differentiated customer advice.
a major, across-the-board impact on the electron-                         Furthermore, consumer reliance on third-party
ics retailing space.                                                      intermediaries for offers and pricing information
                                                                          threatens to convert retail stores into little more
Market Forces                                                             than physical showrooms for online merchants.
We see four distinct forces that will cause further
upheaval in the industry landscape over the next                          Additionally, U.S. consumers continue to reel
few years. The ability of current players to respond                      from a depressed job market and rising prices,
nimbly to these challenges and seize opportuni-                           especially in key consumption items such as
ties arising from rapid change will be the key to                         fuel. Conspicuous consumption is on the decline;
long-term competitive advantage. These forces                             premium brand substitution with cheaper variants
include: Consumer sophistication and frugality,                           and even postponement of consumption are the
increased regulatory scrutiny, cut-throat com-                            order of the day. According to the Consumer Elec-
petition and millennial consumer behavior (see                            tronics Association, spending on CE products by
Figure 5).                                                                the average U.S. consumer household fell 14.5%
                                                                          between 2009 and 2010, or $1,380 per household
Consumer Sophistication and Frugality                                     in 2009 vs. $1,179 in 2010.1 Falling consumer
The shift of retailer-oriented product categories                         demand is also indicated by the recent uptick
from “highly considered” to near commodity                                in the U.S. savings rate, which has tradition-
status (the result of increasing shopper sophis-                          ally trended downward during the last few years
tication) reduces the advantage of sales staff                            (see Figure 6, page 5).

                                                                          Key operational challenges for CE retailers
                                                                          include:
Market Share Gains:
The Circuit City Impact                                                   •   Margins: Prices of key product categories like
                                                                              TVs and PCs (notebook, netbook and desktop)
              Retailer Dollar Share Increases by Category                     have consistently declined or remained at
                       (March – December 2009)                                bargain basement levels over the last few
                                     Best Buy       Walmart                   years, creating pressure on margins for retail-
                                                                              ers.2 Sales of these products are essentially
  Flat-Panel TVs                         5.2%          3.2%
                                                                              replacement or extension sales, as these are
  Notebook PCs                           5.5%          2.3%                   mature and near-ubiquitous categories. These
  Desktop PCs                            4.7%          0.3%                   product categories typically have the highest
                                                                              rate of high-margin warranty and services
  Digital Cameras                        5.5%          2.7%
                                                                              attachments, which are also declining due to
Source: NPD Estimates                                                         flat sales, creating additional challenges for
Figure 4                                                                      retailers.


                                           cognizant reports              3
Forces Shaping the U.S. CE Retail Industry
       Forces                     Drivers                            Changes                                                  Impact

                       •	 Consumer frugality: Consum-      •	 Anemic growth in the sector       •	 Change in revenue mix from lower margin notebook PCs, TVs,
                          ers trading down (moving            with negative comp sales.           etc. to higher margin products like smartphones, tablets.
                          away from premium brands),       •	 Fall in operating margins         •	 Selling these from small-format stores, which cuts down selling
                          opting for lower priced             across some key categories.          costs and paves the way for greater attachment of services to the
                          alternatives, deferring          •	 SG&A cost escalation due             sale, leading to higher margins.
      Consumer	           discretionary spend.                to higher store expenses,         •	 Importance of the online channel for store-based retailers with
                       •	 Deleveraging: Declining             promotional offer lead by price      an expanded assortment, giving them pricing power.
    sophistication	       consumer debt levels,               competition.                      •	 Customers using offline retail establishments as storefronts for
     and	frugality        higher savings rates, lower      •	 Multi-channel strategy: Re-          online sellers.
                          consumption.                        duce selling cost, compete on
                       •	 Availability of shopping            price and maintain margins.
                          technologies for instant price
                          discrimination, product infor-
                          mation and comparison.

                       •	 E-Fairness momentum.             •	 Five states have enacted laws     •	 Level playing field for brick-and-mortar and online retailers.
                       •	 State budget deficit and           in recent years (NY, RI, NC, OK,   •	 Online-only assortment by store-based retailers.
                         uncollected sales tax.              CO); four states passed laws in    •	 Online-only assortment also disaffects offline shoppers because
     Regulations                                             2011 in the first two quarters       of the presence of different pricing strategies.
                                                             (IL, SD, CA, AR); and 20 states
                                                             have legislation or similar
                                                             discussions underway.

                       •	 Price differentiation across     •	 Pricing pressure.                 •	 Online retailers have been able to take advantage of the con-
                          categories between               •	 Margin reduction.                   sumer frugality phenomenon in a big way by competing on price.
                          online and store-based retail    •	 Focus on supply chain and         •	 Large discounters like Walmart have taken full advantage of
                          models.                            right assortment.                    failure of Circuit City by garnering market share in key categories.
     Competition	      •	 Walmart has a strong advan-                                           •	 Relationship with Apple for iPad and iPhone sales will drive the
                          tage based on its size, giving                                          ecosystem.
      (Online	vs.	        it massive economies of scale                                         •	 Reducing product cycle lead times to increase pressure on
     store-based	         in procurement and, hence,                                               accurate demand forecasting to get in and out of products before
    retailers,	mak-       the ability to pass on price                                             margins are completely eradicated. The proliferation of new
     ing	margin	a	        benefits to the consumer.                                                products necessitates buyers to increase their market awareness
      bigger	risk	                                                                                 and research in order to identify where to place their bets.
                                                                                                   Working capital must be released sooner for non-working capital
     than	market	                                                                                  by exploring non-traditional methods to move product through
        share.)                                                                                    third-party providers or intermediaries.
                                                                                                •	 Pricing pressure makes it increasingly difficult to wring savings
                                                                                                   out of the value chain at the same speed at which retailers are
                                                                                                   experiencing pricing pressure, thereby enhancing margin erosion
                                                                                                   trends.

                       •	 Emergence of Gen X and           Compared with baby boomers,          Retailers need to:
                          millennials as core franchise.   Gen X and Gen Y are:                 •	 Invest in client-friendly IT platforms.
    Shifting	client	   •	 Multi-channel strategy for       •	 More tech/finance savvy.          •	 Offer a solid online transactional platform.
                          consistent customer exeri-       •	 More autonomous in their          •	 Build a mobile strategy.
     preference	          ence acoss channels.                purchasing decisions.             •	 Create a “social purchasing experience.”
    and	changing	      •	 E-commerce: Reduce selling       •	 Demand greater transparency.
    product	cycle         cost, compete on price and       •	 Demand tailored service offer-
                          maintain margins.                   ings; desire a seamless/social
                                                              purchasing experience.

Source: Cognizant Research Center Analysis
Figure 5



      Large CE retailers are, therefore, moving their                                       and store-within-a-store), increased promo-
      revenue mix from lower-margin items such                                              tional spend and the need to hire knowledge-
      as notebook PCs and TVs, to higher-margin                                             able workers who can engage customers in a
      products like smartphones and tablets. They                                           sales and advisory relationship rather than a
      are also selling these devices from small-format                                      strict sales interaction.
      stores, which reduces selling costs and paves                                         Additionally, customers are increasingly using
      the way for greater attachment of services to                                         a mix of offline and digital channels for trans-
      the sale, leading to higher margins.                                                  actions, which requires retailers to offer more
•     Distribution: Consumer electronics retailers                                          options, increasing the importance of an
      face rising expenses primarily due to expansion                                       effective online channel for brick-and-mortar-
      into different retail formats (stand-alone store                                      based retailers.



                                                cognizant reports                       4
U.S. Personal Savings Rate                                                                   Competing for Hearts and Pocketbooks
                                                                                             CE retailing has always been fraught with difficult
  %                                                                                          issues, but the challenges are even greater
   15                                                                                        today. For example, CE retailers face increasing
                                                                                             competition from discounters (e.g., Walmart)
 12.5                                                                                        that can leverage massive economies of scale,
                                                                                             both on the purchase side (by striking deals on
  10                                                                                         bulk purchases) and on the consumer side, by
                                                                                             realigning floor space dedicated to electronics
  7.5                                                                                        according to demand (typically during the holiday
                                                                                             shopping season).
   5
                                                                                             A new and interesting dynamic is also at play:
                                                                                             The increasing inability to distinguish competitor
  2.5
                                                                                             from supplier. Apple is a case in point; it designs
                                                                                             and manufactures some of the most in-demand
   0
    1950        1960                    1970       1980       1990   2000   2010    2020     consumer electronics products in the U.S. and
                                                          Year                               sells them through its chain of speciality stores
                   U.S. Recessions                                                           and online. Apple’s policy of limited distribution,
                                                                                             especially in the new and highly lucrative tablet
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of
                                                                                             market, effectively penalizes other retailers
Economic Analysis
Figure 6                                                                                     outside the Apple ecosystem.

                                                                                             Since their introduction in 2010, tablets have
Essentially, the quest for consistently improving                                            proved to be a disruptive force in the computing
financial performance compels single-channel                                                 segment; market researchers predict that tablet
retailers to move to a multi-channel strategy. In                                            shipments will outstrip PC shipments by 2011 and
spite of real-world concerns — such as negative                                              result in the reduction of notebook PC sales by
spill-over and cannibalization, the advantage of                                             30% to 35% in 2011 and 2012, successively (see
low-cost access to new consumer segments and                                                 Figure 7). Retailers with significant PC revenue
potential increases in customer retention and                                                streams will be negatively impacted by this
loyalty — a multichannel strategy makes sense                                                momentum switch (see Figure 8).3
from the vantage point of a retail CFO.


Global Unit Shipments of Desktop PCs and Notebooks
vs. Smartphone and Tablets

                                       800,000                                                      Q4 2010 Inflection Point
                                                                                             Smartphones + Tablets > Total PCs 2013
           Global Unit Shipments (B)




                                       600,000


                                       400,000


                                       200,000


                                               0
                                                          2005       2006    2007     2008   2009      2010      2011E      2012E     2013E

                                                     � Desktop PCs          � Notebook PCs   � Smartphones        � Tablets

Note: Notebook PCs include Netbooks
Source: Katy Huberty, Ehud Gelblum, Morgan Stanley Research
Data and Estimates as of 2/11
Figure 7



                                                                 cognizant reports           5
Impact of Tablet Sales on
CE Retailers                                                                                          Apple’s Stranglehold
  %                                                                                                   Apple has created a storm in the CE market
  5                                                                                                   and bounced back from a 5.3% decline in




                                                                             4.3%
                                                                                                      revenue growth from CE sales in 2009 to
  4
                                                                                                      a 51.5% spike in 2010. How did Apple pull
  3                                                                                                   it off? The answer: The Apple ecosystem.
  2                                                                                                   For instance:

                                                                                                      Apple’s deep and intricate supply chain




                                                                      0.4%
  1

                                        0.3%
       0.3%



                              0.1%
                              0.1%




                                               0.1%
                                                      0.1%




                                                                                    0.1%
                                                                                           0.1%
                       0.1%



                              0%




                                                                                    0%
                                                                                                      relationship. In the case of the iPad, this
  0
              - 0.1%




                                                             - 0.2%
                                                                                                      results in a $50 to $60 advantage in
  -1                                                                                                  input costs for the memory and display
       Best Buy Office Depot OfficeMax                           Radio              Staples
                                                                 Shack                                components of the iPad 2 over competing
       � 2010                 � 2011E   � 2012E                                                       tablet products.
Source: Company data, IDC, Goldman Sachs Equity                                                       A limited distribution policy of products
Research, 2011
                                                                                                      to retailers, especially at launch, when
Figure 8
                                                                                                      the hype cycle for the product is typically
                                                                                                      at its highest. This creates a shortfall of
Online retailers have been in play for some time
                                                                                                      in-demand stock at other retail establish-
now. However, it is only in the last few years that
                                                                                                      ments.
they have emerged as viable challengers to brick-
and-mortar behemoths. Online retailers have been                                                      The carefully-crafted Apple Store pur-
able to take advantage of the consumer frugality                                                      chase experience, with its focus on
phenomenon in a significant manner by competing                                                       maximizing customer convenience, from
primarily on price (see Figure 9, page 7). Sales of                                                   feature education, to purchase, to product
CE products online grew by 17% in 2010, to $13.6                                                      activation.
billion (see Figure 10). This represents only 14%
                                                                                                      These factors make it exceedingly chal-
of the total market for CE products, suggesting
                                                                                                      lenging for other retailers to grab a slice
significant room for growth.
                                                                                                      of Apple’s share of the pie, especially in
Impending Regulatory Changes                                                                          the tablet market.

Online sellers enjoy the twin advantages of lower
overhead and tax laws that have not caught up
with the new rules of the retail game. Most states
in the U.S. do not have a sales tax regime in place
to extract revenue from online sales. This has                                                    product lifecycles, with time-to-market for product
created an unequal playing field between offline                                                  releases compressed to levels unforeseen just a
and online players.                                                                               few years ago. This has also created demand for
                                                                                                  a slew of allied services, ranging from connectiv-
As Best Buy CEO Brian J. Dunn said in a recent
                                                                                                  ity solutions and service plans, to accessories.
investor presentation, “Taxing all online sites
                                                                                                  The millennial pattern of media consumption — on
equally would be a major, but not complete,
                                                                                                  multiple connected devices — has also required
closure in the pricing difference. It will also signif-
                                                                                                  pure-play retailers to get into the content delivery
icantly hurt small, online retailers that compete
                                                                                                  business. Millennials are now armed with instant
completely on price.”4
                                                                                                  access to pricing information across channels and
Moves are afoot to address this gap, with five                                                    also rely on online reviews much more than tra-
states passing “E-Fairness” laws in recent years,                                                 ditional consumers for their purchase decisions.
four states doing the same in 2011 and another 20                                                 This leads to a lower reliance on store employees
states holding discussions on similar legislation                                                 as a preferred source of product information.
(see Figure 11, page 8).                                                                          The “social purchasing” experience, with the
                                                                                                  ability to engage in instant feedback and rapid
Millennial Consumer Behavior                                                                      price-comparison, will be a significant factor in
The always-on, always-connected lifestyle of                                                      the market dynamic for CE products, especially
millennial consumers is driving frenetic change in                                                among millennials.


                                                        cognizant reports                         6
Average Price Differential vs. Amazon

                                                                                               Average price difference above Amazon*

                                                                                                                                                30%
                                                                                                                            28%

                                                                                                        19%




                                                                                                    Walmart               Target             Specialty
                                                                                                                                             Retailers
                                                                                               * Assumes no sales tax on Amazon purchases and free shipping;
                                                        An Amazon fulfillment center           Source: Wells Fargo. Photo: Getty Images.




Sources: Faber Novel, “The Hidden Empire” 2011
Figure 9


Winning Strategies                                                                                         extensively use shopping technology, whether
                                                                                                           PCs for detailed research or smartphones for
To succeed, CE retailers must consider the
                                                                                                           rapid, on-the-go comparison (see Figure 12).
following plans of attack:
                                                                                                           Price, convenience and selection are the most
•         Engage profitably with millennial consumers:                                                     important factors for millennials to arrive
          The defining characteristic of millennials is                                                    at an optimal purchase decision. This demo-
          that as digital natives, they adapt to computer                                                  graphic does not distinguish between channels
          and Internet technologies very swiftly. They                                                     but expects an interactive, consistent and
          are demanding and technologically savvy,                                                         seamless experience across channels.
          craving instant access to product informa-
                                                                                                           CE retailers will need to embrace unified
          tion and reviews from third-party sources,
                                                                                                           strategies across processes — such as supply
          especially from their social networks. They


Online Commerce Gaining Share vs. Offline
                                            %
                                            7
                                                                                                                          e-Commerce penetration
    e-Commerce as % of Total Retail Sales




                                            6                                                                                 4% in Q2, 2010

                                            5

                                            4
                                                                                                                                                          Mobile e-Commerce
                                            3                                                                                                                penetration

                                            2

                                            1

                                            0
                                            Q3:00   Q3:01    Q3:02     Q3:03   Q3:04   Q3:05      Q3:06        Q3:07        Q3:08       Q3:09        Q3:10     Q3:11    Q3:12

                                                    e-Commerce penetration                Linear trendline (y=0.094x + 0.9895, R 2=0.9599)

Note: Adjusted for eBay by adding back eBay U.S. gross merchandise volume.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce (Q2-2010), Morgan Stanley Research
Figure 10



                                                                       cognizant reports               7
E-Fairness Momentum: 2011 State Activity

                  $260B in online revenue and $26B in annual uncollected sales tax,
                  or 13% of states’ budget gap.                                                        Five states have enacted
                                                                                                       laws in recent years
                                                                                                       (NY, RI, NC, OK, CO)
                                                                                                       Four states passed laws
                                                                                                       in 2011 (IL, SD, AR, CA)
                                                                                                       Twenty have legislation or
                                                                                                       similar discussions underway


                                                                                                     Laws already enacted
                                                                                                     Legislation or other
                                                                                                     activity underway
                                                                                                     Law enacted 2011
                                                                                                     No state sales tax
                                                                                                     Amazon collects sales tax



Source: Best Buy Investor Presentation 2011; Wells Fargo Report on The State and Local Budget Squeeze, Feb 2011
Figure 11


Mobile Shopping Preferences                                                        chain, merchandising, pricing, inventory
                                                                                   management and customer service — to
                                                                                   ensure a “boundary-less store” experience
          If a retailer offered the following services for                         across channels. The mobile store is one way
          a mobile device, indicate how likely you would
                                                                                   of interacting with consumers to keep them
          be to use them on a scale of 1 to 10.
                                                                                   engaged. It will play a significant part in the
                                                       4.6                         future of CE retail, by ensuring uniformity of
                    Coupons                               5.3
                                                                6.3                product information across all channels, be it
                                                                      7.3          in-store, online or mobile.
                                                 3.7
                Product and                            4.7
                price lookup                                  5.9                  CE retailers will need to invest significantly in
                                                                    7.0            equipping their sales forces with the latest and
         Ability to instantly                       4.3
        use loyalty program                            4.9                         greatest sales tools and technologies, as tradi-
                                                          5.7
              awards/offers                                   6.4                  tional hard sales pitches do not cut it with mil-
                                                  3.9                              lennials, who in many cases have access to as
       Product comparisons                            4.7
                                                          5.7                      much information as sales staff do. Enabling
                                                               6.7
                                                  3.9                              sales staff with technology will deliver an
                Store locator                        4.6                           even more meaningful in-store interaction, as
                                                           5.8
                                                               6.7                 evidenced by recent research:5
                                                   4.2
             Ability to place
                     an order
                                                      4.7
                                                         5.5                       >   57% of shoppers want improved interac-
                                                            6.1                        tions with store associates.
          View your status/                       3.8
          points in the store                       4.4
                                                         5.5
                                                                                   >   58% of shoppers want engagement with
            loyalty program                                  6.2                       store associates in the aisle, with mobile
                                                 3.6                                   check-out capabilities.
  Ability to receive location,                     4.2
           personalization or
  time-based product offers
                                                        5.1
                                                            6.0                    >   64% of shoppers want store associates with
                                                                                       mobile technology to provide improved in-
                                 0      2        4        6            8               store customer service.
                          Very unlikely to use          Very likely to use
                                                                               •   Adapt to emerging distribution formats:
     Emerging Elders        Baby Boomers             Gen X             Gen Y       Research indicates that U.S. online retail sales
                                                                                   will directly account for 8% of total retail sales
                                                                                   and, more importantly, will influence 53% of
Source: Retail Info Systems/Cognizant Technology                                   all retail sales by 2014 (see Figure 13). Mobile
Solutions 2011 Shopper Experience Study
                                                                                   commerce is likely to deliver $17 billion in sales
Figure 12
                                                                                   by that time (see Figure 14).


                                            cognizant reports                  8
U.S. Consumer Shopping Online                                                U.S. Mobile Commerce Growth

                                                                                              Two research firms project rapid growth in
   The number of consumers researching or                                                     mobile commerce revenue from 2009 to 2015.
   shopping online is steadily growing and
                                                                              Billions
   will surpass 200 million by 2015, eMarketer
   says. But the research firm says most of the                                  $25
                                                                                                                                                                 $23.8
   projected sales growth will come from
   veteran Web shoppers.                                                         $20
                                                                                                                                                       $17.5
                                                                 201.1M
                                                      195.4M
                                  184.3M
                                             189.6M                              $15
                       178.5M                                                                                                            $11.7
              172.3M
   163.1M                                                                        $10                                        $7.4
                                                                                                                                                                        $10.7
                                                                     90.1%                                        $4.4                                     $8.0
                                                             89.4%                $5                    $2.4
                                                  88.7%                                  $1.2                                               $5.8
                                         88.1%                                                                                    $3.9
                              87.5%                                                       $1.2           $2.1        $3.2
                  87.1%                                                           $0
                                                                                       2009        2010           2011       2012        2013           2014        2015
          85.0%
                                                                                                 Coda Research Consultancy                             ABI Research


                                                                             Source: Coda Research Consultancy & ABI Reasearch.
   2009       2010     2011       2012       2013         2014   2015
                                                                             Figure 14
            Percentage of shoppers expected to be
            veteran Web shoppers
                                                                             Best Buy Store Strategy:
Source: eMarketer, March 2011                                                The Move to Small Box
Figure 13

                                                                                                 $910
It is, therefore, imperative for CE retailers to not                             50                                                                                        910
only embrace but also get full leverage from                                              40.5             39.7             39                            38.6
                                                                                 40                                                      38.7
emerging mobile and maturing e-commerce
                                                                                                 32.5             32.7
                                                                                                                                                                           895
                                                                                                                                 31.6                            31.3
channels. Online and mobile channels will allow
                                                                                 30                                 $888                        27.6
retailers that rely primarily on their physical                                                                                                                            880
                                                                                                                                                $878
presence to remain visible across the spectrum,                                  20
push promotions, provide detailed product infor-
                                                                                                                                                                           865
mation and be visible to consumers when they                                     10
engage in price comparison. Online channels                                                                                      $856                          $851
also enable retailers to play the price game                                      0                                                                                        850
with pure-play e-tailers by stocking online-only                                       � Average store size ('000 sq ft)
product assortments and one-upping them with                                           � New store average size ('000 sq ft)
“buy online and pick up in-store” options, an                                          — Sales per sq ft (in $)
advantage that appeals to impulse buyers who
crave instant gratification.                                                 Source: Best Buy Company Report;
                                                                             GS Equity Research 2011
The introduction and rapid growth of innovative                              Figure 15
products such as tablets, e-readers and next-gen-
eration smart devices needs to be addressed by                               Buy Mobile stand-alone stores, which is expected
retailers. They can accomplish this by appearing                             to increase the retail giant’s presence and allow
omnipresent across multiple sales channels,                                  it to reduce its large-format store footprint
such as offering consumers allied content,                                   (see Figure 15).
accessories and services in the most convenient
manner possible. Persistent connectedness to                                 Technology and Global Sourcing
the customer is the cornerstone of this strategy                             The rapid growth of smartphone connections
— a CE retailer can conceivably even be agnostic                             (overall) and the high-percentage of influential
about store format, as long as the customer is                               millennials already riding the always-connect-
engaged across all fronts. Best Buy, for example,                            ed wave make it imperative for CE retailers to
is attempting to create traction for its smaller                             prepare for a time when a large proportion of
store formats, most notably by expanding its Best                            their customers will be digitally enabled. They will


                                                 cognizant reports           9
Key Third-Party Services
for U.S. Retailers                                                            The Future of Shopping
                                                                              In the future, CE retail establishments
                                    IT consulting               58.2%         will eliminate all boundaries between
 Web site development, maintanance or hosting                  54.5%          the retailer and the shopper. All capabili-
                Custom application development                 45.5%          ties, (pricing, order management, fulfill-
    Packaged app implementation or integration                37.3%           ment, customer service, returns, etc.)
                              Mobility initiatives            36.4%           will be available to consumers regardless
                         Social media initiatives            35.5%            of location (aisle three, checkout, in the
              Telecommunications or networking               30.0%            home, jogging in Central Park).
                                         Training        29.1%
                        Application maintenance          29.1%                Consumer behavior purchase patterns
                           Data center operations       23.6%                 and offers will be integrated across
                   Business process outsourcing         12.7%                 channels. Mobile offers will be distributed
                            Entire IS organization     5.5%                   to shoppers in real-time based on time,
          Energy reduction and/ or sustainability      4.6%                   location, customer segment and category
                       Currently not outsourcing      3.6%                    position. To get there, CE retailers must
                                                                              consider the following:
  Percent of respondents

Source: RIS Retail Tech Study, April 2011
                                                                              •   Cloud-enabled shopper interaction:
                                                                                  Retailers must integrate third-party
Figure 16
                                                                                  offers and services in order to reduce
                                                                                  shopper decision models and re-estab-
Key Retail Software Architectures                                                 lish their authority as a credible source
                                                                                  of information. These services can be
                                                                                  delivered through the cloud and linked
                    Best-of-breed software                       57.7%            to a shopper’s mobile device to deliver
                 Integrated solutions suites                    52.3%             a contextual shopping experience.
  In-house IT resources to develop software
                                                               50.4%          •   Linking content across channels:
               Third-party services to help
                                                                                  Products and promotions must be
                          develop software                    44.1%               consistent, leveraging emerging capa-
                                                                                  bilities in content and digital asset
               On-demand or SaaS models                  33.3%
                                                                                  management.
                 Cloud computing solutions           15.3%
                                                                              •   Adoption of mobile devices for
                                                                                  store associates to enable a richer
  Percent of respondents                                                          shopper interaction: Equip store-
Source: RIS Retail Tech Study, April 2011                                         based employees with mobile devices
Figure 17                                                                         to improve in-aisle customer service
                                                                                  and check-out capabilities.


need to create services that allow such connected
customers to get a view of hitherto unseen store
processes, such as inventory status, deeper and
                                                                         technology areas that CE retailers will need to
richer product information and, ultimately, even
                                                                         implement to stay viable are:
self-checkout.
                                                                         •    Next-generation customer analytics that
Today, the top two categories of external sourcing                            incorporate data gathered from social media.
of technology for CE retailers are IT consulting and
Web site development/maintenance/hosting (see
                                                                         •    Predictive supply chain management
                                                                              solutions.
Figure 16). Mobility services and social media inte-
gration, meanwhile, are rapidly gaining ground.                          •    Customer management suites that enable
Deployment of these relatively new and quickly                                consistent customer recognition, tracking and
evolving technology domains requires expertise                                rewards across channels.
that is not available in-house. Other best-practice                      •    Multi-channel fulfilment technologies.



                                           cognizant reports             10
CE retailers must also find ways to manage costs,           The Road Ahead
a difficult challenge given persistent low margins
                                                            CE retailers are uniquely positioned to capitalize
across key categories and the heavy investment
                                                            on emerging opportunities across the technology
needed in new technologies to keep pace with
                                                            and business spectrum to fortify their operating
their always-connected consumers. A key to
                                                            models, as well as profitably engage and stay
the cost management conundrum would be the
                                                            connected with consumers.
conversion of Cap-Ex to Op-Ex by using cloud
services for SaaS (software as a service) and               Winning players will do the following:
BPaaS (business process as a service). Significant
                                                            1. Become “retail format agnostic” and use
cost reductions could also be gained by transi-
                                                               multiple channels to stay connected with their
tioning some commoditized business processes
                                                               customers, profitably.
to a BPaaS model (see Figure 17).
                                                            2. Focus on and fortify their unique strengths
We believe CE retailers will find these services               (e.g., superior customer service, lowest price).
attractive, even indispensible, due to factors such
                                                            3. Partner and source talent and services globally
as on-demand delivery, compression of imple-
                                                               in a virtualized environment and rein in their
mentation time, withdrawal of supporting infra-
                                                               expenses.
structure, negation of application testing, reduced
training, reduction in ongoing business process             4. Save precious capital and variabalize their cost
change management and greater accounting                       base by actively adopting new cloud-enabled
transparency for such costs.                                   service delivery models such as BPaaS.

Another important element of cloud-based                    In short, CE retailers need to reinvent their
services is the scalability factor, allowing retailers      corporate operating models and dig deeper
to quickly extend solutions in new stores or                competitive moats to profitably tap into the fast
channels, as well as rapidly withdraw from stores           emerging future of the CE retail market.
or channels that are not performing at desired
levels. Another attraction is the utility concept
of pay-as-you-use, which enables adopters to
“variabalize” their cost base.




Footnotes
1
    “American Households Spend More Than $1,100 Annually on Consumer Electronics,
    CEA Study Finds,” Consumer Electronics Association, May 23, 2011.
    http://www.ce.org/Press/CurrentNews/press_release_detail.asp?id=12100
2
    In fact, gross margins for TVs have dropped from 27% in 2007 to 22% in 2009, while PC margins have
    remained stagnant at around the 13% mark, according to Goldman Sachs Equity Research, April 2011.
3
    According to Goldman Sachs research, RadioShack is expected to be the net winner among other sellers
    from the proliferation of tablet technology, as the company derives significantly lower sales from PCs
    and notebooks, which are being cannibalized by tablet sales. Analysts feel there will be a net neutral
    effect for Best Buy in 2011, as its core PC business continues to suffer from tablet cannibalization, but its
    competency in wireless and close relationship with Apple could help it absorb this disruption.
4
    “Best Buy Investor Relations: Presentations,” Best Buy Analyst Day 2011.
    http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=83192&p=IROL-presentations
5
    “2011 Shopper Experience Survey,” Retail Info Systems News/Cognizant Technology Solutions, June 2011.




                                 cognizant reports           11
Resources
“Consumer Tech Revenues Will Reach Record High in 2011,” Consumer Electronics Association,
January 2011. http://www.ce.org/Press/CurrentNews/press_release_detail.asp?id=12047

“Best Buy and Walmart Capture Two-Thirds of Circuit City’s Total Dollar Share,” NPD, April 2010.
http://www.npd.com/press/releases/press_100412.html

“Forever Frugal? 2010 U.S. Consumer Survey Confirms Persistent Frugality,” Booz & Co., 2010.
http://www.booz.com/media/uploads/Forever_Frugal.pdf

“Inside the Apple Store,” Dealerscope, June 2011. http://www.dealerscope.com/article/
inside-applestore/1#utm_source=dealerscope.com&utm_medium=search_results_page&utm_
campaign=search_result

“U.S. Online Retail Forecast, 2009 To 2014: Online Retail Hangs Tough For 11% Growth in A Challenging
U.S. Economy,” Forrester Research, Inc., November 2010. http://www.internetretailer.com/2010/03/08/
e-retail-will-influence-53-of-purchases-by-2014-forrester-says

“The State and Local Budget Squeeze,” Wells Fargo Securities Research, February 2011.
https://www.wellsfargoresearch.com/disclosures/Documents/TRACS%20vol%205%20-%20RETAIL.pdf

“Best Buy: Framing the Issues: Newer Stores Smaller than the Average Box, Suggesting Need for
Downsizing,” GS Equity Research, April 2011.

“2011 Retail Technology Trends Study,” RIS News, April 2011.
http://risnews.edgl.com/retail-research/2011-Retail-Technology-Trends-Study71782



Author
Nitin Bajaj
Cognizant Research Center

Research Analyst
Durgesh Patel
Cognizant Research Center

Subject Matter Expert
Steven Skinner, Vice President, Cognizant Business Consulting, Retail and Consumer Goods Practice




About Cognizant
Cognizant (NASDAQ: CTSH) is a leading provider of information technology, consulting, and business process out-
sourcing services, dedicated to helping the world’s leading companies build stronger businesses. Headquartered in
Teaneck, New Jersey (U.S.), Cognizant combines a passion for client satisfaction, technology innovation, deep industry
and business process expertise, and a global, collaborative workforce that embodies the future of work. With over 50
delivery centers worldwide and approximately 130,000 employees as of September 30, 2011, Cognizant is a member of
the NASDAQ-100, the S&P 500, the Forbes Global 2000, and the Fortune 500 and is ranked among the top performing
and fastest growing companies in the world. Visit us online at www.cognizant.com or follow us on Twitter: Cognizant.



                                         World Headquarters                  European Headquarters                 India Operations Headquarters
                                         500 Frank W. Burr Blvd.             1 Kingdom Street                      #5/535, Old Mahabalipuram Road
                                         Teaneck, NJ 07666 USA               Paddington Central                    Okkiyam Pettai, Thoraipakkam
                                         Phone: +1 201 801 0233              London W2 6BD                         Chennai, 600 096 India
                                         Fax: +1 201 801 0243                Phone: +44 (0) 20 7297 7600           Phone: +91 (0) 44 4209 6000
                                         Toll Free: +1 888 937 3277          Fax: +44 (0) 20 7121 0102             Fax: +91 (0) 44 4209 6060
                                         Email: inquiry@cognizant.com        Email: infouk@cognizant.com           Email: inquiryindia@cognizant.com


© Copyright 2011, Cognizant. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, transmitted in any form or by any
means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the express written permission from Cognizant. The information contained herein is
subject to change without notice. All other trademarks mentioned herein are the property of their respective owners.

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Understanding U.S. Consumer Electronics Retailing

  • 1. • Cognizant Reports Understanding U.S. Consumer Electronics Retailing Executive Summary consumer regardless of shopper location to deliver the complete shopping experience. The U.S. consumer electronics (CE) retail industry has endured severely fluctuating fortunes in • Optimize retail floor space through increased the last decade. A swiftly changing CE market “store inside of a store” concepts and reduction landscape, continually reshaped by the forces of future store size footprints. of continuous product innovation and change, is • Use in-store space for increased demonstra- forcing the entire CE retail industry to confront tion of “connected shopper solutions,” showing challenges across multiple fronts. These issues how all elements of a complete basket can include the following: work together prior to a shopper exiting the premises. • The advent of the frugal and sophisticated U.S. consumer, thanks to the “Great Recession.” • Save precious capital and reduce operational costs by embracing emerging service delivery • Debilitating price wars fought by three distinct models to transition select commoditized retail trade formats — discount vs. pure-play vs. online retail. business processes to cloud computing-enabled business process as a service (BPaaS). • Significant competitive advantage enjoyed by U.S. GDP Growth Rate (%) online retailers due in part to lower overhead and tax laws that have not caught up with the U.S. CE Industry Growth new rules of the retail game. vs. GDP Growth • Ever-changing and demanding “millennial” Millions consumer preferences. $200,000 6% These forces have left CE retailers scrambling for 4% $175,000 cover under their onslaught. In the recent past, we 2% have witnessed the bankruptcy of a large player, $150,000 0% Circuit City, as well as the less-than-stellar growth -2% of other key players. It is clear that CE retailers or $125,000 -4% CE retail divisions of organizations such as Best -6% Buy, Target, Walmart, RadioShack, etc. will need $100,000 -8% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (estimated) (projected) to re-evaluate and re-align their strategies to face U.S. CE Industry Growth Rate the new realities of the marketplace. U.S. GDP Growth Rate (%) In our view, winning CE retailers must: Source: CEA 2011; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; Goldman Sachs Estimates 2011 • Create integrated channels — a “store without Figure 1 boundaries” — that offer all capabilities to the cognizant reports | december 2011
  • 2. The Current State of U.S. Electronics Retailing Key Key Product Key Characteristics Categories Categories Retailers Video Products Best Buy • TV market growth has diminished on category maturation, (Television, navigation Walmart lack of catalyst from 3D/connected TVs. products, digital cameras and Costco • TVs greater than 46’’ average size are expected to garner accessories, digital camcorders Sears 55% of total sales in FY 2012. and accessories, e-Readers, hhgregg • TV barely re-emerges when penetration hits ~30%, as sales tend to flatten. DVD and Blu-ray players, etc.) Amazon • An estimated addressable market of 17M annual transactions/connections. Consumer • Largest percentage of all photos will be taken through digital still cameras, at 51% in 2010, followed by mobile phone, at 42%. Electronics Audio Products Best Buy • Stand-alone MP3 players have seen a significant dent in sales due to the (MP3 players and accessories, Walmart adoption of phones as a personal music device. The dominant market home theater audio systems Costco leader Apple has seen iPod sales decline 6% year-over-year and account and components, musical Sears for less than 8% of Apple’s revenue. instruments and mobile hhgregg electronics, etc.) Amazon PC/Notebook/Netbook Best Buy • Continuing margin erosion due to commoditization of category (Related subscription service Apple (except Apple products) because of product proliferation and commissions, hard drives, Dell product cycle time compression. networking equipment and Walmart related accessories such Staples as printers.) Officemax OfficeDepot Amazon Tablets Apple • Tablet market opportunity: FY12E $12B U.S. market (+50%). Home Office Best Buy • Apple remains the leader in the tablet PC market with a 54% share. Amazon • RadioShack is expected to be the net winner due to its sharp over-index in RadioShack tablets vs. other more PC-centric competitors. Mobile Phones and Communications • FY12E $34B U.S. market (+6%) Connections service providers • Estimated channel mix: 65% of total points of purchase Best Buy (77,000 in 2010) are direct channels. Amazon • Among indirect channels, retailers constitute 56% of the share. RadioShack • For the first time, a majority (54%) of all new mobile phone handsets purchased by U.S. consumers are smartphones. Appliances and Sears • $14B appliances industry. Small Electronics Lowe’s Appliances The Home Depot Best Buy hhgregg Gaming Hardware Game Stop • FY12E $23.5B U.S. market (-2%). and Software Walmart • $15B gaming software value chain. (DVDs, Blu-rays, CDs, digital Best Buy • 15M trade-in units across industry. Entertainment downloads and computer Amazon • $2B console-based market opportunity software.) (console subscription points card + downloadable content). Source: Cognizant Research Center analysis Figure 2 The Market Landscape encing market share gains following Circuit City’s demise, the major players have essentially seen The U.S. retail electronics market tallied revenues flat growth a year after the fact, indicating that of $180 billion in 2010 across five key categories: revenue increases in 2009 for some major players consumer electronics (video and audio products); were purely a result of the redistribution of Circuit home office (PCs, notebooks, netbooks, tablets, City sales rather than incremental business gains mobile phones, etc.); appliances; entertainment (see Figure 4, next page). hardware and software (see Figures 1 and 2); and services. Reality struck in 2010 and continued in 2011, with revenues of major players growing only by 4.5%; Total sales of the Top 10 electronics retailers marginal revenue growth was driven primarily by are expected to grow by 6% in 2011 to reach new product introductions, such as tablets and $110 billion (see Figure 3). Absent Apple’s stellar netbooks, and not from existing product lines, as performance, the previous two business cycles well as from an increase in store fronts and retail (2008-2010) have been characterized by anemic floor space. It is clear that shifting consump- revenue growth, the demise of Circuit City and tion patterns and product distribution models, flatlining in the key category of TVs. After experi- cognizant reports 2
  • 3. Top 10 Players: Store-Based CE Retailing by Domestic Revenues $40 Billions $30 $20 $10 $0 Best Buy Walmart Apple Staples Game Stop Target Costco Sam's Club RadioShack OfficeMax � 2008 � 2009 � 2010 Source: Dealerscope’s Top 101 CE Retailers, March 2011 Figure 3 especially from physical to online sales, have had in providing differentiated customer advice. a major, across-the-board impact on the electron- Furthermore, consumer reliance on third-party ics retailing space. intermediaries for offers and pricing information threatens to convert retail stores into little more Market Forces than physical showrooms for online merchants. We see four distinct forces that will cause further upheaval in the industry landscape over the next Additionally, U.S. consumers continue to reel few years. The ability of current players to respond from a depressed job market and rising prices, nimbly to these challenges and seize opportuni- especially in key consumption items such as ties arising from rapid change will be the key to fuel. Conspicuous consumption is on the decline; long-term competitive advantage. These forces premium brand substitution with cheaper variants include: Consumer sophistication and frugality, and even postponement of consumption are the increased regulatory scrutiny, cut-throat com- order of the day. According to the Consumer Elec- petition and millennial consumer behavior (see tronics Association, spending on CE products by Figure 5). the average U.S. consumer household fell 14.5% between 2009 and 2010, or $1,380 per household Consumer Sophistication and Frugality in 2009 vs. $1,179 in 2010.1 Falling consumer The shift of retailer-oriented product categories demand is also indicated by the recent uptick from “highly considered” to near commodity in the U.S. savings rate, which has tradition- status (the result of increasing shopper sophis- ally trended downward during the last few years tication) reduces the advantage of sales staff (see Figure 6, page 5). Key operational challenges for CE retailers include: Market Share Gains: The Circuit City Impact • Margins: Prices of key product categories like TVs and PCs (notebook, netbook and desktop) Retailer Dollar Share Increases by Category have consistently declined or remained at (March – December 2009) bargain basement levels over the last few Best Buy Walmart years, creating pressure on margins for retail- ers.2 Sales of these products are essentially Flat-Panel TVs 5.2% 3.2% replacement or extension sales, as these are Notebook PCs 5.5% 2.3% mature and near-ubiquitous categories. These Desktop PCs 4.7% 0.3% product categories typically have the highest rate of high-margin warranty and services Digital Cameras 5.5% 2.7% attachments, which are also declining due to Source: NPD Estimates flat sales, creating additional challenges for Figure 4 retailers. cognizant reports 3
  • 4. Forces Shaping the U.S. CE Retail Industry Forces Drivers Changes Impact • Consumer frugality: Consum- • Anemic growth in the sector • Change in revenue mix from lower margin notebook PCs, TVs, ers trading down (moving with negative comp sales. etc. to higher margin products like smartphones, tablets. away from premium brands), • Fall in operating margins • Selling these from small-format stores, which cuts down selling opting for lower priced across some key categories. costs and paves the way for greater attachment of services to the alternatives, deferring • SG&A cost escalation due sale, leading to higher margins. Consumer discretionary spend. to higher store expenses, • Importance of the online channel for store-based retailers with • Deleveraging: Declining promotional offer lead by price an expanded assortment, giving them pricing power. sophistication consumer debt levels, competition. • Customers using offline retail establishments as storefronts for and frugality higher savings rates, lower • Multi-channel strategy: Re- online sellers. consumption. duce selling cost, compete on • Availability of shopping price and maintain margins. technologies for instant price discrimination, product infor- mation and comparison. • E-Fairness momentum. • Five states have enacted laws • Level playing field for brick-and-mortar and online retailers. • State budget deficit and in recent years (NY, RI, NC, OK, • Online-only assortment by store-based retailers. uncollected sales tax. CO); four states passed laws in • Online-only assortment also disaffects offline shoppers because Regulations 2011 in the first two quarters of the presence of different pricing strategies. (IL, SD, CA, AR); and 20 states have legislation or similar discussions underway. • Price differentiation across • Pricing pressure. • Online retailers have been able to take advantage of the con- categories between • Margin reduction. sumer frugality phenomenon in a big way by competing on price. online and store-based retail • Focus on supply chain and • Large discounters like Walmart have taken full advantage of models. right assortment. failure of Circuit City by garnering market share in key categories. Competition • Walmart has a strong advan- • Relationship with Apple for iPad and iPhone sales will drive the tage based on its size, giving ecosystem. (Online vs. it massive economies of scale • Reducing product cycle lead times to increase pressure on store-based in procurement and, hence, accurate demand forecasting to get in and out of products before retailers, mak- the ability to pass on price margins are completely eradicated. The proliferation of new ing margin a benefits to the consumer. products necessitates buyers to increase their market awareness bigger risk and research in order to identify where to place their bets. Working capital must be released sooner for non-working capital than market by exploring non-traditional methods to move product through share.) third-party providers or intermediaries. • Pricing pressure makes it increasingly difficult to wring savings out of the value chain at the same speed at which retailers are experiencing pricing pressure, thereby enhancing margin erosion trends. • Emergence of Gen X and Compared with baby boomers, Retailers need to: millennials as core franchise. Gen X and Gen Y are: • Invest in client-friendly IT platforms. Shifting client • Multi-channel strategy for • More tech/finance savvy. • Offer a solid online transactional platform. consistent customer exeri- • More autonomous in their • Build a mobile strategy. preference ence acoss channels. purchasing decisions. • Create a “social purchasing experience.” and changing • E-commerce: Reduce selling • Demand greater transparency. product cycle cost, compete on price and • Demand tailored service offer- maintain margins. ings; desire a seamless/social purchasing experience. Source: Cognizant Research Center Analysis Figure 5 Large CE retailers are, therefore, moving their and store-within-a-store), increased promo- revenue mix from lower-margin items such tional spend and the need to hire knowledge- as notebook PCs and TVs, to higher-margin able workers who can engage customers in a products like smartphones and tablets. They sales and advisory relationship rather than a are also selling these devices from small-format strict sales interaction. stores, which reduces selling costs and paves Additionally, customers are increasingly using the way for greater attachment of services to a mix of offline and digital channels for trans- the sale, leading to higher margins. actions, which requires retailers to offer more • Distribution: Consumer electronics retailers options, increasing the importance of an face rising expenses primarily due to expansion effective online channel for brick-and-mortar- into different retail formats (stand-alone store based retailers. cognizant reports 4
  • 5. U.S. Personal Savings Rate Competing for Hearts and Pocketbooks CE retailing has always been fraught with difficult % issues, but the challenges are even greater 15 today. For example, CE retailers face increasing competition from discounters (e.g., Walmart) 12.5 that can leverage massive economies of scale, both on the purchase side (by striking deals on 10 bulk purchases) and on the consumer side, by realigning floor space dedicated to electronics 7.5 according to demand (typically during the holiday shopping season). 5 A new and interesting dynamic is also at play: The increasing inability to distinguish competitor 2.5 from supplier. Apple is a case in point; it designs and manufactures some of the most in-demand 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 consumer electronics products in the U.S. and Year sells them through its chain of speciality stores U.S. Recessions and online. Apple’s policy of limited distribution, especially in the new and highly lucrative tablet Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of market, effectively penalizes other retailers Economic Analysis Figure 6 outside the Apple ecosystem. Since their introduction in 2010, tablets have Essentially, the quest for consistently improving proved to be a disruptive force in the computing financial performance compels single-channel segment; market researchers predict that tablet retailers to move to a multi-channel strategy. In shipments will outstrip PC shipments by 2011 and spite of real-world concerns — such as negative result in the reduction of notebook PC sales by spill-over and cannibalization, the advantage of 30% to 35% in 2011 and 2012, successively (see low-cost access to new consumer segments and Figure 7). Retailers with significant PC revenue potential increases in customer retention and streams will be negatively impacted by this loyalty — a multichannel strategy makes sense momentum switch (see Figure 8).3 from the vantage point of a retail CFO. Global Unit Shipments of Desktop PCs and Notebooks vs. Smartphone and Tablets 800,000 Q4 2010 Inflection Point Smartphones + Tablets > Total PCs 2013 Global Unit Shipments (B) 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E � Desktop PCs � Notebook PCs � Smartphones � Tablets Note: Notebook PCs include Netbooks Source: Katy Huberty, Ehud Gelblum, Morgan Stanley Research Data and Estimates as of 2/11 Figure 7 cognizant reports 5
  • 6. Impact of Tablet Sales on CE Retailers Apple’s Stranglehold % Apple has created a storm in the CE market 5 and bounced back from a 5.3% decline in 4.3% revenue growth from CE sales in 2009 to 4 a 51.5% spike in 2010. How did Apple pull 3 it off? The answer: The Apple ecosystem. 2 For instance: Apple’s deep and intricate supply chain 0.4% 1 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0% 0% relationship. In the case of the iPad, this 0 - 0.1% - 0.2% results in a $50 to $60 advantage in -1 input costs for the memory and display Best Buy Office Depot OfficeMax Radio Staples Shack components of the iPad 2 over competing � 2010 � 2011E � 2012E tablet products. Source: Company data, IDC, Goldman Sachs Equity A limited distribution policy of products Research, 2011 to retailers, especially at launch, when Figure 8 the hype cycle for the product is typically at its highest. This creates a shortfall of Online retailers have been in play for some time in-demand stock at other retail establish- now. However, it is only in the last few years that ments. they have emerged as viable challengers to brick- and-mortar behemoths. Online retailers have been The carefully-crafted Apple Store pur- able to take advantage of the consumer frugality chase experience, with its focus on phenomenon in a significant manner by competing maximizing customer convenience, from primarily on price (see Figure 9, page 7). Sales of feature education, to purchase, to product CE products online grew by 17% in 2010, to $13.6 activation. billion (see Figure 10). This represents only 14% These factors make it exceedingly chal- of the total market for CE products, suggesting lenging for other retailers to grab a slice significant room for growth. of Apple’s share of the pie, especially in Impending Regulatory Changes the tablet market. Online sellers enjoy the twin advantages of lower overhead and tax laws that have not caught up with the new rules of the retail game. Most states in the U.S. do not have a sales tax regime in place to extract revenue from online sales. This has product lifecycles, with time-to-market for product created an unequal playing field between offline releases compressed to levels unforeseen just a and online players. few years ago. This has also created demand for a slew of allied services, ranging from connectiv- As Best Buy CEO Brian J. Dunn said in a recent ity solutions and service plans, to accessories. investor presentation, “Taxing all online sites The millennial pattern of media consumption — on equally would be a major, but not complete, multiple connected devices — has also required closure in the pricing difference. It will also signif- pure-play retailers to get into the content delivery icantly hurt small, online retailers that compete business. Millennials are now armed with instant completely on price.”4 access to pricing information across channels and Moves are afoot to address this gap, with five also rely on online reviews much more than tra- states passing “E-Fairness” laws in recent years, ditional consumers for their purchase decisions. four states doing the same in 2011 and another 20 This leads to a lower reliance on store employees states holding discussions on similar legislation as a preferred source of product information. (see Figure 11, page 8). The “social purchasing” experience, with the ability to engage in instant feedback and rapid Millennial Consumer Behavior price-comparison, will be a significant factor in The always-on, always-connected lifestyle of the market dynamic for CE products, especially millennial consumers is driving frenetic change in among millennials. cognizant reports 6
  • 7. Average Price Differential vs. Amazon Average price difference above Amazon* 30% 28% 19% Walmart Target Specialty Retailers * Assumes no sales tax on Amazon purchases and free shipping; An Amazon fulfillment center Source: Wells Fargo. Photo: Getty Images. Sources: Faber Novel, “The Hidden Empire” 2011 Figure 9 Winning Strategies extensively use shopping technology, whether PCs for detailed research or smartphones for To succeed, CE retailers must consider the rapid, on-the-go comparison (see Figure 12). following plans of attack: Price, convenience and selection are the most • Engage profitably with millennial consumers: important factors for millennials to arrive The defining characteristic of millennials is at an optimal purchase decision. This demo- that as digital natives, they adapt to computer graphic does not distinguish between channels and Internet technologies very swiftly. They but expects an interactive, consistent and are demanding and technologically savvy, seamless experience across channels. craving instant access to product informa- CE retailers will need to embrace unified tion and reviews from third-party sources, strategies across processes — such as supply especially from their social networks. They Online Commerce Gaining Share vs. Offline % 7 e-Commerce penetration e-Commerce as % of Total Retail Sales 6 4% in Q2, 2010 5 4 Mobile e-Commerce 3 penetration 2 1 0 Q3:00 Q3:01 Q3:02 Q3:03 Q3:04 Q3:05 Q3:06 Q3:07 Q3:08 Q3:09 Q3:10 Q3:11 Q3:12 e-Commerce penetration Linear trendline (y=0.094x + 0.9895, R 2=0.9599) Note: Adjusted for eBay by adding back eBay U.S. gross merchandise volume. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce (Q2-2010), Morgan Stanley Research Figure 10 cognizant reports 7
  • 8. E-Fairness Momentum: 2011 State Activity $260B in online revenue and $26B in annual uncollected sales tax, or 13% of states’ budget gap. Five states have enacted laws in recent years (NY, RI, NC, OK, CO) Four states passed laws in 2011 (IL, SD, AR, CA) Twenty have legislation or similar discussions underway Laws already enacted Legislation or other activity underway Law enacted 2011 No state sales tax Amazon collects sales tax Source: Best Buy Investor Presentation 2011; Wells Fargo Report on The State and Local Budget Squeeze, Feb 2011 Figure 11 Mobile Shopping Preferences chain, merchandising, pricing, inventory management and customer service — to ensure a “boundary-less store” experience If a retailer offered the following services for across channels. The mobile store is one way a mobile device, indicate how likely you would of interacting with consumers to keep them be to use them on a scale of 1 to 10. engaged. It will play a significant part in the 4.6 future of CE retail, by ensuring uniformity of Coupons 5.3 6.3 product information across all channels, be it 7.3 in-store, online or mobile. 3.7 Product and 4.7 price lookup 5.9 CE retailers will need to invest significantly in 7.0 equipping their sales forces with the latest and Ability to instantly 4.3 use loyalty program 4.9 greatest sales tools and technologies, as tradi- 5.7 awards/offers 6.4 tional hard sales pitches do not cut it with mil- 3.9 lennials, who in many cases have access to as Product comparisons 4.7 5.7 much information as sales staff do. Enabling 6.7 3.9 sales staff with technology will deliver an Store locator 4.6 even more meaningful in-store interaction, as 5.8 6.7 evidenced by recent research:5 4.2 Ability to place an order 4.7 5.5 > 57% of shoppers want improved interac- 6.1 tions with store associates. View your status/ 3.8 points in the store 4.4 5.5 > 58% of shoppers want engagement with loyalty program 6.2 store associates in the aisle, with mobile 3.6 check-out capabilities. Ability to receive location, 4.2 personalization or time-based product offers 5.1 6.0 > 64% of shoppers want store associates with mobile technology to provide improved in- 0 2 4 6 8 store customer service. Very unlikely to use Very likely to use • Adapt to emerging distribution formats: Emerging Elders Baby Boomers Gen X Gen Y Research indicates that U.S. online retail sales will directly account for 8% of total retail sales and, more importantly, will influence 53% of Source: Retail Info Systems/Cognizant Technology all retail sales by 2014 (see Figure 13). Mobile Solutions 2011 Shopper Experience Study commerce is likely to deliver $17 billion in sales Figure 12 by that time (see Figure 14). cognizant reports 8
  • 9. U.S. Consumer Shopping Online U.S. Mobile Commerce Growth Two research firms project rapid growth in The number of consumers researching or mobile commerce revenue from 2009 to 2015. shopping online is steadily growing and Billions will surpass 200 million by 2015, eMarketer says. But the research firm says most of the $25 $23.8 projected sales growth will come from veteran Web shoppers. $20 $17.5 201.1M 195.4M 184.3M 189.6M $15 178.5M $11.7 172.3M 163.1M $10 $7.4 $10.7 90.1% $4.4 $8.0 89.4% $5 $2.4 88.7% $1.2 $5.8 88.1% $3.9 87.5% $1.2 $2.1 $3.2 87.1% $0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 85.0% Coda Research Consultancy ABI Research Source: Coda Research Consultancy & ABI Reasearch. 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Figure 14 Percentage of shoppers expected to be veteran Web shoppers Best Buy Store Strategy: Source: eMarketer, March 2011 The Move to Small Box Figure 13 $910 It is, therefore, imperative for CE retailers to not 50 910 only embrace but also get full leverage from 40.5 39.7 39 38.6 40 38.7 emerging mobile and maturing e-commerce 32.5 32.7 895 31.6 31.3 channels. Online and mobile channels will allow 30 $888 27.6 retailers that rely primarily on their physical 880 $878 presence to remain visible across the spectrum, 20 push promotions, provide detailed product infor- 865 mation and be visible to consumers when they 10 engage in price comparison. Online channels $856 $851 also enable retailers to play the price game 0 850 with pure-play e-tailers by stocking online-only � Average store size ('000 sq ft) product assortments and one-upping them with � New store average size ('000 sq ft) “buy online and pick up in-store” options, an — Sales per sq ft (in $) advantage that appeals to impulse buyers who crave instant gratification. Source: Best Buy Company Report; GS Equity Research 2011 The introduction and rapid growth of innovative Figure 15 products such as tablets, e-readers and next-gen- eration smart devices needs to be addressed by Buy Mobile stand-alone stores, which is expected retailers. They can accomplish this by appearing to increase the retail giant’s presence and allow omnipresent across multiple sales channels, it to reduce its large-format store footprint such as offering consumers allied content, (see Figure 15). accessories and services in the most convenient manner possible. Persistent connectedness to Technology and Global Sourcing the customer is the cornerstone of this strategy The rapid growth of smartphone connections — a CE retailer can conceivably even be agnostic (overall) and the high-percentage of influential about store format, as long as the customer is millennials already riding the always-connect- engaged across all fronts. Best Buy, for example, ed wave make it imperative for CE retailers to is attempting to create traction for its smaller prepare for a time when a large proportion of store formats, most notably by expanding its Best their customers will be digitally enabled. They will cognizant reports 9
  • 10. Key Third-Party Services for U.S. Retailers The Future of Shopping In the future, CE retail establishments IT consulting 58.2% will eliminate all boundaries between Web site development, maintanance or hosting 54.5% the retailer and the shopper. All capabili- Custom application development 45.5% ties, (pricing, order management, fulfill- Packaged app implementation or integration 37.3% ment, customer service, returns, etc.) Mobility initiatives 36.4% will be available to consumers regardless Social media initiatives 35.5% of location (aisle three, checkout, in the Telecommunications or networking 30.0% home, jogging in Central Park). Training 29.1% Application maintenance 29.1% Consumer behavior purchase patterns Data center operations 23.6% and offers will be integrated across Business process outsourcing 12.7% channels. Mobile offers will be distributed Entire IS organization 5.5% to shoppers in real-time based on time, Energy reduction and/ or sustainability 4.6% location, customer segment and category Currently not outsourcing 3.6% position. To get there, CE retailers must consider the following: Percent of respondents Source: RIS Retail Tech Study, April 2011 • Cloud-enabled shopper interaction: Retailers must integrate third-party Figure 16 offers and services in order to reduce shopper decision models and re-estab- Key Retail Software Architectures lish their authority as a credible source of information. These services can be delivered through the cloud and linked Best-of-breed software 57.7% to a shopper’s mobile device to deliver Integrated solutions suites 52.3% a contextual shopping experience. In-house IT resources to develop software 50.4% • Linking content across channels: Third-party services to help Products and promotions must be develop software 44.1% consistent, leveraging emerging capa- bilities in content and digital asset On-demand or SaaS models 33.3% management. Cloud computing solutions 15.3% • Adoption of mobile devices for store associates to enable a richer Percent of respondents shopper interaction: Equip store- Source: RIS Retail Tech Study, April 2011 based employees with mobile devices Figure 17 to improve in-aisle customer service and check-out capabilities. need to create services that allow such connected customers to get a view of hitherto unseen store processes, such as inventory status, deeper and technology areas that CE retailers will need to richer product information and, ultimately, even implement to stay viable are: self-checkout. • Next-generation customer analytics that Today, the top two categories of external sourcing incorporate data gathered from social media. of technology for CE retailers are IT consulting and Web site development/maintenance/hosting (see • Predictive supply chain management solutions. Figure 16). Mobility services and social media inte- gration, meanwhile, are rapidly gaining ground. • Customer management suites that enable Deployment of these relatively new and quickly consistent customer recognition, tracking and evolving technology domains requires expertise rewards across channels. that is not available in-house. Other best-practice • Multi-channel fulfilment technologies. cognizant reports 10
  • 11. CE retailers must also find ways to manage costs, The Road Ahead a difficult challenge given persistent low margins CE retailers are uniquely positioned to capitalize across key categories and the heavy investment on emerging opportunities across the technology needed in new technologies to keep pace with and business spectrum to fortify their operating their always-connected consumers. A key to models, as well as profitably engage and stay the cost management conundrum would be the connected with consumers. conversion of Cap-Ex to Op-Ex by using cloud services for SaaS (software as a service) and Winning players will do the following: BPaaS (business process as a service). Significant 1. Become “retail format agnostic” and use cost reductions could also be gained by transi- multiple channels to stay connected with their tioning some commoditized business processes customers, profitably. to a BPaaS model (see Figure 17). 2. Focus on and fortify their unique strengths We believe CE retailers will find these services (e.g., superior customer service, lowest price). attractive, even indispensible, due to factors such 3. Partner and source talent and services globally as on-demand delivery, compression of imple- in a virtualized environment and rein in their mentation time, withdrawal of supporting infra- expenses. structure, negation of application testing, reduced training, reduction in ongoing business process 4. Save precious capital and variabalize their cost change management and greater accounting base by actively adopting new cloud-enabled transparency for such costs. service delivery models such as BPaaS. Another important element of cloud-based In short, CE retailers need to reinvent their services is the scalability factor, allowing retailers corporate operating models and dig deeper to quickly extend solutions in new stores or competitive moats to profitably tap into the fast channels, as well as rapidly withdraw from stores emerging future of the CE retail market. or channels that are not performing at desired levels. Another attraction is the utility concept of pay-as-you-use, which enables adopters to “variabalize” their cost base. Footnotes 1 “American Households Spend More Than $1,100 Annually on Consumer Electronics, CEA Study Finds,” Consumer Electronics Association, May 23, 2011. http://www.ce.org/Press/CurrentNews/press_release_detail.asp?id=12100 2 In fact, gross margins for TVs have dropped from 27% in 2007 to 22% in 2009, while PC margins have remained stagnant at around the 13% mark, according to Goldman Sachs Equity Research, April 2011. 3 According to Goldman Sachs research, RadioShack is expected to be the net winner among other sellers from the proliferation of tablet technology, as the company derives significantly lower sales from PCs and notebooks, which are being cannibalized by tablet sales. Analysts feel there will be a net neutral effect for Best Buy in 2011, as its core PC business continues to suffer from tablet cannibalization, but its competency in wireless and close relationship with Apple could help it absorb this disruption. 4 “Best Buy Investor Relations: Presentations,” Best Buy Analyst Day 2011. http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=83192&p=IROL-presentations 5 “2011 Shopper Experience Survey,” Retail Info Systems News/Cognizant Technology Solutions, June 2011. cognizant reports 11
  • 12. Resources “Consumer Tech Revenues Will Reach Record High in 2011,” Consumer Electronics Association, January 2011. http://www.ce.org/Press/CurrentNews/press_release_detail.asp?id=12047 “Best Buy and Walmart Capture Two-Thirds of Circuit City’s Total Dollar Share,” NPD, April 2010. http://www.npd.com/press/releases/press_100412.html “Forever Frugal? 2010 U.S. Consumer Survey Confirms Persistent Frugality,” Booz & Co., 2010. http://www.booz.com/media/uploads/Forever_Frugal.pdf “Inside the Apple Store,” Dealerscope, June 2011. http://www.dealerscope.com/article/ inside-applestore/1#utm_source=dealerscope.com&utm_medium=search_results_page&utm_ campaign=search_result “U.S. Online Retail Forecast, 2009 To 2014: Online Retail Hangs Tough For 11% Growth in A Challenging U.S. Economy,” Forrester Research, Inc., November 2010. http://www.internetretailer.com/2010/03/08/ e-retail-will-influence-53-of-purchases-by-2014-forrester-says “The State and Local Budget Squeeze,” Wells Fargo Securities Research, February 2011. https://www.wellsfargoresearch.com/disclosures/Documents/TRACS%20vol%205%20-%20RETAIL.pdf “Best Buy: Framing the Issues: Newer Stores Smaller than the Average Box, Suggesting Need for Downsizing,” GS Equity Research, April 2011. “2011 Retail Technology Trends Study,” RIS News, April 2011. http://risnews.edgl.com/retail-research/2011-Retail-Technology-Trends-Study71782 Author Nitin Bajaj Cognizant Research Center Research Analyst Durgesh Patel Cognizant Research Center Subject Matter Expert Steven Skinner, Vice President, Cognizant Business Consulting, Retail and Consumer Goods Practice About Cognizant Cognizant (NASDAQ: CTSH) is a leading provider of information technology, consulting, and business process out- sourcing services, dedicated to helping the world’s leading companies build stronger businesses. Headquartered in Teaneck, New Jersey (U.S.), Cognizant combines a passion for client satisfaction, technology innovation, deep industry and business process expertise, and a global, collaborative workforce that embodies the future of work. With over 50 delivery centers worldwide and approximately 130,000 employees as of September 30, 2011, Cognizant is a member of the NASDAQ-100, the S&P 500, the Forbes Global 2000, and the Fortune 500 and is ranked among the top performing and fastest growing companies in the world. Visit us online at www.cognizant.com or follow us on Twitter: Cognizant. World Headquarters European Headquarters India Operations Headquarters 500 Frank W. Burr Blvd. 1 Kingdom Street #5/535, Old Mahabalipuram Road Teaneck, NJ 07666 USA Paddington Central Okkiyam Pettai, Thoraipakkam Phone: +1 201 801 0233 London W2 6BD Chennai, 600 096 India Fax: +1 201 801 0243 Phone: +44 (0) 20 7297 7600 Phone: +91 (0) 44 4209 6000 Toll Free: +1 888 937 3277 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7121 0102 Fax: +91 (0) 44 4209 6060 Email: inquiry@cognizant.com Email: infouk@cognizant.com Email: inquiryindia@cognizant.com © Copyright 2011, Cognizant. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the express written permission from Cognizant. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice. All other trademarks mentioned herein are the property of their respective owners.