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State of the Region-Report 2014
The Top of Europe:
Emerging from the Crisis, Adapting to the New Normal
Helge J. Pedersen
...
Economic climate in the Baltic Sea
Region
Global Chief Economist Helge J. Pedersen
Turku 3. June 2014
Baseline scenario – fragile growth
• World growth is driven by the advanced economies – Emerging Markets are
having proble...
Return of growth – but still risks ahead
4
Economic sentiment is lagging the EU for the first time
since 2008
5
Labour market improvement …
6
…with big country deviation – youth unemployment
pose a big political problem in many countries
7
Government debt : The best in class
8
Less economic misery than in most other places on
earth
9
State of the Region-Report 2014
Competitiveness and Collaboration
Across the Baltic Sea Region
Dr. Christian H.M. Ketels
I...
The Permanent Prosperity Loss from the Crisis
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001...
Prosperity Dispersion Within Cross-National Regions
2000 - 2013
1
2
3
4
5
6
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2...
The New Normal?
BSR EU-15 NAFTA BSR EU-15 NAFTA
Before the Crisis After the Crisis
Labor
Productivity
Labor
Mobilization
P...
Baltic Sea Region Exports
Total Value over Time
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2...
Baltic Sea Region FDI Flows
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
FDI outflow...
Overall Competitiveness and Prosperity, 2013
500
5000
50000
Denmark
Iceland Sweden
Finland
Norway
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania...
The Baltic Sea Region’s Competitiveness Profile 2013
Macro (18)
Political Institutions
(22)
Rule of Law
(22)
Human Develop...
Strength
Weakness
Cost of Doing Business: Government Regulations
Baltic Sea Region Countries
Denmark
yNorway
Finland
Icela...
440
460
480
500
520
540
560
Math
Science
Reading
Problem solving
Mean score
Educational Performance
PISA Study Results 201...
Key Trends Affecting the Region
Globalization
Knowledge-
Driven
Economy
Environmental
Sustainability
Demographics Urbaniza...
Strengthening Governance of the EUSBSR
Better aligned…
…but in need of structure
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Launch of 2014 State of Baltic Sea Region Report

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How is the Baltic Sea Region doing in terms of competitiveness and regional collaboration? Key points from the 2014 State of the Region-Report (http://www.bsr2014.eu/wp-content/uploads/BDF_SORR_2014_web.pdf). Presented at the BDF Summit in Turku, June 2014

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Launch of 2014 State of Baltic Sea Region Report

  1. 1. State of the Region-Report 2014 The Top of Europe: Emerging from the Crisis, Adapting to the New Normal Helge J. Pedersen Global Chief Economist NORDEA Dr. Christian H.M. Ketels Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness Harvard Business School Timo Summa School of Business Aalto University Full report: http://www.bsr2014.eu/wp-content/uploads/BDF_SORR_2014_web.pdf
  2. 2. Economic climate in the Baltic Sea Region Global Chief Economist Helge J. Pedersen Turku 3. June 2014
  3. 3. Baseline scenario – fragile growth • World growth is driven by the advanced economies – Emerging Markets are having problems • BSR looks more promising than rest of Europe: – Baltic recovery led by Latvia and Lithuania – Sweden to lead growth among the Nordics – Germany to pull Poland – Russian stagnation • Geopolitical risks related to the situation in Ukraine/Russia • Lenient monetary policy for long time yet 3
  4. 4. Return of growth – but still risks ahead 4
  5. 5. Economic sentiment is lagging the EU for the first time since 2008 5
  6. 6. Labour market improvement … 6
  7. 7. …with big country deviation – youth unemployment pose a big political problem in many countries 7
  8. 8. Government debt : The best in class 8
  9. 9. Less economic misery than in most other places on earth 9
  10. 10. State of the Region-Report 2014 Competitiveness and Collaboration Across the Baltic Sea Region Dr. Christian H.M. Ketels Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness Harvard Business School
  11. 11. The Permanent Prosperity Loss from the Crisis 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 NAFTA GDP per capita (PPP adjusted) US-Dollar, EU-27 Baltic Sea Region
  12. 12. Prosperity Dispersion Within Cross-National Regions 2000 - 2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Ratio of GDP (PPP adjusted) per Capita, Richest to Poorest Country per Region Baltic Sea Region EU-15 EU-27
  13. 13. The New Normal? BSR EU-15 NAFTA BSR EU-15 NAFTA Before the Crisis After the Crisis Labor Productivity Labor Mobilization Prosperity Growth accounted for by: Note: Annual Growth Rates 2004-2008 and 2012-2013; labor mobilization = hours worked per capita, labor productivity = GDP per hour worked Source: Conference Board (2014) 4.5% 3.0% 1.5% 0%
  14. 14. Baltic Sea Region Exports Total Value over Time 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* Services Oil/Minerals Goods Export Values, in billion US- Dollars in Current Prices
  15. 15. Baltic Sea Region FDI Flows 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 FDI outflow - annual FDI outflow - 3-year average FDI inflow - annual FDI inflow - 3-year average World market share
  16. 16. Overall Competitiveness and Prosperity, 2013 500 5000 50000 Denmark Iceland Sweden Finland Norway Estonia Latvia Lithuania Competitiveness Score, 2013 GDP per Capita, US‐$ (PPP adj.), 2013 HighLow Germany  Russia  Poland
  17. 17. The Baltic Sea Region’s Competitiveness Profile 2013 Macro (18) Political Institutions (22) Rule of Law (22) Human Development (21) Context for Strategy and Rivalry (28) Related and Supporting Industries (27) Demand Conditions (23) Factor Input Conditions (21) Micro (23) Comm. (16) Innov. (19) Admin (27)Skills (23) Logistic. (25) GDP pc (21) GCI (20) Social Infra- structure and Pol. Institutions (20) Macroeconomic Policy (21) National Business Environment (24) Company Operations and Strategy (20) Source:UnpublisheddatafromtheGlobalCompetitivenessReport (2013),author’sanalysis. Significant advantage Moderate advantage Neutral Moderate disadvantage Significant disadvantage Capital (29)
  18. 18. Strength Weakness Cost of Doing Business: Government Regulations Baltic Sea Region Countries Denmark yNorway Finland Iceland Sweden Lithuania yGermany Estonia 5 9 12 13 14 17 21 22 Overall Rank ‘14 Trading Across Borders Registering Property Construction Permits Paying Taxes Insolvency Enforcing Contracts Getting Credit Protecting Investors Starting a Business Source: World Bank (2014) Subcategory Latvia 24 Poland 45 Russia 92
  19. 19. 440 460 480 500 520 540 560 Math Science Reading Problem solving Mean score Educational Performance PISA Study Results 2013, Selected Countries Source: OECD (2014)
  20. 20. Key Trends Affecting the Region Globalization Knowledge- Driven Economy Environmental Sustainability Demographics Urbanization
  21. 21. Strengthening Governance of the EUSBSR Better aligned… …but in need of structure

How is the Baltic Sea Region doing in terms of competitiveness and regional collaboration? Key points from the 2014 State of the Region-Report (http://www.bsr2014.eu/wp-content/uploads/BDF_SORR_2014_web.pdf). Presented at the BDF Summit in Turku, June 2014

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