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Brazilian Scenario - Trends and Challenges
to keep IT investments
Jayme Faria - ICT Consulting Manager Latin America
Frost...
2
2009 2013 2014 2015
Macroeconomic “rollercoaster” in the past 7 years
High Expectations Path errors
Weak political
leade...
3
Brazil’s perspective is not so encouraging...
•Consumers are
indebted
•Consumers confidence
index decrease
•Social condi...
4
Diversify the agenda is the solution for exports and to the overall
economy in Brazil
Source: Frost & Sullivan and OECD-...
5
Productivity is what sustained the growth of the agriculture business
in Brazil, and is the necessary diversification to...
6
Budget pressures generate important incentives for increased
productivity in different sectors
On-demand instead of
peak...
7
Digital transformation will take place in this context
Big Data
Cloud
Mobile
Social
IOE
The Brazilian
Big Data
market wa...
8
Industry executives recognize that change is here and see new
challenges in IT
New, disruptive
competitors
Digitalisatio...
9
And need to transform the business with strategic and tactical
initiatives
Strategic Focal Points Tactical Focal Points
...
10
UBER, a transportation services or a Big Data company?
Source: Frost & Sullivan and expandedramblings.com/
Fare, Route,...
11
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Bradesco has successfully implemented a mobile solution
Solution
• Bradesco has negotiated wit...
12
Market
Demand
•Sao Paulo is the
financial center of
Brazil
•High consumption
•Proof of concept to
future rollout in the...
13
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Lessons that Brazil could take from European countries which
retook growth path after the fina...
14
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Lessons that Brazil could take from European countries which
retook growth path after the fina...
15
The opportunity is here…
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2013 2018
GlobalRevenues(US$Tn)
Smart Grids
Smart Manufacturing
Healthcare
Sma...
16
Conclusions
In an increasingly competitive scenario, and restrained by economic
crisis, companies should assess co-oper...
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Brazilian Scenario - Trends and Challenges to keep IT investments

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Brazilian Scenario - Trends and Challenges to keep IT investments

  1. 1. Brazilian Scenario - Trends and Challenges to keep IT investments Jayme Faria - ICT Consulting Manager Latin America Frost & Sullivan February - 2016 xxx Presented to:
  2. 2. 2 2009 2013 2014 2015 Macroeconomic “rollercoaster” in the past 7 years High Expectations Path errors Weak political leadership to change Issues Foreseen • Commodities Boom helps exports • Strong R$ X USD • Decreasing inflation/interest rates (Selic and Public Banks) • Increasing middle class and consumption • World Cup + Olympics to boost GDP • Petrobras pre-salt investments (Oil US$110/barrell in 2011) • Respect for investors • Fiscal superavit • Commodities Low Prices (China < demand) • Weak R$ X USD • Increasing inflation/interest rates • Consumption reduces significantly • World Cup as explanation for lower GDP • Petrobras corruption scandals and reduced investments (Oil US$40/barrel in 2015) • Downgrade of Brazilian debt to junk status from Fitch and Standard & Poor’s (end of 2015) • Optimistic forecasts indicate a 2.5% shrinkage for Brazilian economy in 2016 • The finance minister quit in despair after less than a year in the job (end of 2015) • High inflation rates and unemployment rates tending to get even worse during 2016 Source: The Economist, Frost & Sullivan 2016 Policy and economy at the edge of the precipice
  3. 3. 3 Brazil’s perspective is not so encouraging... •Consumers are indebted •Consumers confidence index decrease •Social conditions deterioration •Exports reduction •Drop on investments grade •Commodities price decrease •Shortage of credit •Petrobras crisis •Fall in president’s popularity •Lack of Government actions •Difficulty on comply the budget •Unemployment rates – 6.8% in 2015 •Higher inflation rate – 10.7% in 2015 •Currency devaluation – 1USD = 4BRL •Increase in interest rates – SELIC 14.25% •GDP shrinkage: 3.8% in 2015 Economy Politics ConsumptionTrade Source: Frost & Sullivan
  4. 4. 4 Diversify the agenda is the solution for exports and to the overall economy in Brazil Source: Frost & Sullivan and OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015 • Growth rate expected is ‘just’ 7% for 2015 • Stock market crash of values • Lower commodities prices globally China’s lower growth path • China accounts for 27,2% of total Agriculture sector exportation of Brazil • 35% of Brazil’s total oilseed production exported to China Brazil’s exports dependency on China • Directly through bilateral trade • Indirectly through changing world prices • 33% of decrease on exportations in first semester of 2015 Brazilian agriculture affected • Brazil has stimulated the consumption, but forgot about the production capacity • Commodities vs manufactured products Recent years brief overview
  5. 5. 5 Productivity is what sustained the growth of the agriculture business in Brazil, and is the necessary diversification to overcome the current situation Source: Frost & Sullivan and cepea.esalq.usp.br 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Total (excluding Agribusiness) 7.5% 2.0% 2.2% 2.1% -0.3% Agribusiness 7.5% 5.4% -2.8% 3.9% 1.6% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% GDP growth comparison Technology leveraged the grains productivity • Harverters and Irrigation techniques boosted the growth – 6.4% from 2014 to 2015 More productivity with no area increase (just 1.7% of growth) • The acreage grew from 57 million to 58 million hectares from 2014 to 2015 IOT could take Agriculture to the next level • Predictive data analytics , Sensors, Smart meters, Precision seeding, Fertility and disease management and weather accurate forecasts 2012 was a bad year due to the unfavorable weather conditions which affected mainly corn and soybean crops
  6. 6. 6 Budget pressures generate important incentives for increased productivity in different sectors On-demand instead of peak capacity Opex instead of Capex Don't just invest your budget, optimize it Source: Frost & Sullivan
  7. 7. 7 Digital transformation will take place in this context Big Data Cloud Mobile Social IOE The Brazilian Big Data market was expected to end on US$400 million in 2015 The Brazilian Cloud market was expected to end on US$668 million in 2015 The Brazilian users of smartphones with a mobile broadband have surpassed 70 million during the 1H2015 The Brazilian WhatsApp active users were more than 50 million in 2015 The Brazilian M2M market was expected to end on US$190 million in 2015 Source: Frost & Sullivan
  8. 8. 8 Industry executives recognize that change is here and see new challenges in IT New, disruptive competitors Digitalisation New Business Models Servitisation Forces Driving Change 36% 27% 18% 12% Perceived Rate of Industry Change 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 2010 Now Not changing at all Changing only slowly Changing at a moderate pace Changing fast Changing very fast Source: Frost & Sullivan survey of 1,500 executives, 2014 Source: Frost & Sullivan
  9. 9. 9 And need to transform the business with strategic and tactical initiatives Strategic Focal Points Tactical Focal Points Business Model Cost Customer Experience Partnership Innovation Supply Chain Management Operational Excellence Risk Management Workforce Empowerment Reducing Cost Service Excellence Digital Products and Services Source: Frost & Sullivan
  10. 10. 10 UBER, a transportation services or a Big Data company? Source: Frost & Sullivan and expandedramblings.com/ Fare, Route, Traffic conditions and time are crossed after a ‘taxi’ is requested Predictive analysis to previously determine time and price Combining Uber’s data with personal data provided by customers Mutual evaluation system enhance customer loyalty and experience The database is increasing and becoming a smart tool Simplicity: One app for all countries and cities Visionary Thinking: First market participant to establish trust by sharing driver information Adaptability: Tailor- made solutions for different markets to cover niches Cashless Solution: Fares automatically charged to credit cards Reliability: Transparent—feedback by mutual rating of drivers and customers on a 5-star scale What makes Uber different What makes Uber disruptive on Big Data  60 countries  + 8 MM users  Expects to hire 1 MM drivers in the next 6 months  + 1 MM trips daily  51% of drivers work 15hs or less a week
  11. 11. 11 Source: Frost & Sullivan Bradesco has successfully implemented a mobile solution Solution • Bradesco has negotiated with the 4 major carriers a standard offer providing a free access to its clients through mobile application and web-site Business impact • The number of mobile banking users has doubled, achieving 25% of the entire database • ROI 3 times superior to the initial investments Challenge • Enhance mobile banking adoption • Guarantee deployment ROI • Offer a service to the whole clients database Why free data? • Lower cost on each transaction by mobile banking • Rapid payback due to clients’ adherence and higher perceived value to differentiate from competitors
  12. 12. 12 Market Demand •Sao Paulo is the financial center of Brazil •High consumption •Proof of concept to future rollout in the whole state Opportunity for Innovation •Create an environment of continuous innovation •Evaluation of new concepts and solutions Effectiveness of Investments •Customers interaction •Alternative supply •Loss reduction Productivity •Smart Meters •Process Automation Source: Frost & Sullivan and Cisco Cisco and Eletropaulo are partners on a Smart Grid project in Barueri Reduce technical and commercial losses (fraud) Improve the service quality Reduce operational costs Improve planning of grid expansion Improve assets management Promote energy efficiency Grid suitable to connect micro- generation (Eolic and solar) Customers manage their own consumption using Client Portal Main Benefits Main Motivations
  13. 13. 13 Source: Frost & Sullivan Lessons that Brazil could take from European countries which retook growth path after the financial collapse: Spain How the crisis started? - Spain also saw the boom and bust that accompany a housing bubble - During the economic boom, 800 thousand apartments were built in the country every year - Too many projects were financed on credit, and as result, private debt was twice as high as the entire Spanish GDP in 2008 How Spain faced the crisis? - In 2012, Spain also received billions of dollars from the European Union to rescue the banking system - The Spanish government undertook a tough policy of fiscal austerity prompting protests among ordinary citizens How is Spain nowadays? - The government expects economic growth of 3 percent in 2015 - The situation is much better than some years ago, but the main problems still remain unresolved - Almost one in five people in Spain remain unemployed, lower rate than the highest of 27% which were seen during the worst crisis’ period
  14. 14. 14 Source: Frost & Sullivan Lessons that Brazil could take from European countries which retook growth path after the financial collapse: Portugal How the crisis started? - Portugal joined the Eurozone in 2002 - Investments flowed into the country immediately after its entry - In a short period of time government spending and public debt grew, so the international lenders lost confidence in the country How Portugal faced the crisis? - In May 2011, Portugal received a loan package from the Eurozone countries - The European Central Bank (ECB) and the IMF allocated 78 billion euros to support Portugal - Thereby, Lisbon lowered the salaries of state employees, cut social benefits and increased taxes How is Portugal nowadays? - In May 2014, after three years of help, Portugal left the European rescue fund - For the first time, the economy showed slight growth of 0.9 percent - The government is promising to continue reforms, but the situation is complicated due to demographic challenges, particularly, the aging population
  15. 15. 15 The opportunity is here… 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2013 2018 GlobalRevenues(US$Tn) Smart Grids Smart Manufacturing Healthcare Smart Cities Smart Buildings Connected Car Traditional $3.8 Tn $6.3 Tn 2014 2018 • There is a need to evaluate the strategies and options towards a focus on business needs, innovation and transformation. The need for change is now Smart and connected industries Cloud and enterprise application Orchestration, Collaboration, Enablers Programmable Infrastructure Programmable Network SDN, SDS, SD- WAN & NFV: Data centers orchestration and automation, mobile network virtualization SaaS, BAaaS, PaaS, IaaS, ERP, CRM, SCM, HCM, mobile apps BPM, BRM, Big Data Analytics, IoT Smart: cities, homes, health, transport, etc Digitally-Enabled Business Services Source: Frost & Sullivan
  16. 16. 16 Conclusions In an increasingly competitive scenario, and restrained by economic crisis, companies should assess co-operation relationships, alliances and acquisitions to effectively monetize emerging opportunities. Integrate disruptive and emerging technologies. Be Proactive, new ideas create new businesses and generate more revenue sources. Source: Frost & Sullivan

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