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Economy... at a glance January 2021

Monthly summary of the state of the Spanish and international economy

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Economy... at a glance January 2021

  1. 1. Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on CIS, 2020. 0 20 40 60 80 100 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 Jun-20 Dec-20 -3.8 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 0 20 40 60 80 100 Ene Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 2019 2020 76.9% Nº of tourists 0 20 40 60 80 100 Ene Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 2019 2020 78.1% Touristexpenditure Industrial production, Spain In November 2020, the industrial production index (IPI) fell 3.8% year-on-year against a 1.6% increase in the same month in 2019. By sectors, all showed negative rates except intermediate goods (1.2% year-on-year). Production in the energy sector also fell 7.8% year-on-year, capital goods 7.1% and consumer goods 3.6%. By Autonomous Community, the biggest year- on-year increases were in Extremadura (26.4%) and Murcia (4.6%). On the other hand, the Balearic Islands (-15.8%) and Navarre (-9.8%) registered the biggest decreases. Tourism sector, Spain Between January and November 2020, 18.3 million tourists visited Spain, compared to 79.2 million in the same period of the previous year (-76.9% year-on-year). By country of residence, France was the major emitter (20.3% of the total), although it registered a fall of 65% year-on-year. Next, was the UK (16.7%), with a decrease of 82.2%, and Germany (12.7%), with -78.2% year-on-year. For its part, total spending by tourists fell 78.1% year-on-year (against +2.5% from January- November 2019), reaching €19.044 million. Averagespendingperpersonwas€1,040andthe average duration of the trip was 7.7 days. Themainemittingcountriesintermsofspending weretheUK(15.8%ofthetotal),withadecrease of 82.3% year-on-year, Germany (13.3%), with -77.3%, and France (12.2%), with -68%. CCI, Spain In December 2020, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) reached 63.1 points, compared to 55.7 points in November, and 77.7 points in December 2019. This monthly increase was due to improvements in scores for the assessment of the current situation (+4.3 points) and those related to expectations (+10.5 points). Despite the monthly upturn, this data is similar to the 2012 and 2013 values, one of the periods with the worst results since recording began. The 2020 CCI yearly average reached 59.9 points, 29.4 points lower than in 2019, making it the worst result since 2012. Economy… at a glance January 2021 Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on INE, 2020. Number of tourists and tourist expenditure Jan-Nov, Spain Millions of people and billions of € Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on INE, 2020. Industrial production index, Spain YoY change (%) CCI, Spain Points
  2. 2. ‘Economy at a glance’, a publication of the Círculo de Empresarios produced by its Department of the Economy, contains information and opinion from reliable sources. However, the Círculo de Empresarios does not guarantee its accuracy and does not take responsibility for any errors or omissions. This document is merely informative. As a result, the Círculo de Empresarios is not responsible for any uses that may be made of the publication. The opinions and estimates of the Department can be modified without prior warning. www.circulodeempresarios.org 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Jan-20 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Dec-20 Germany France Italy Spain -8 -4 0 4 8 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17 Dec-17 Apr-18 Aug-18 Dec-18 Apr-19 Aug-19 Dec-19 Apr-20 Aug-20 Dec-20 CPI PPI 161 120.5 51 46.6 38 -22 -31 -498 -600 -400 -200 0 200 Professional and Bussiness Services Retail Trade Construcction Transportation and Warehousing Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Financial activities Mining Utilities Information Other services Education and Health Leisure and Hospitality Economic activity, Eurozone The Eurozone is heading towards a double recession as the blockages and mobility restrictions are prolonged. Analysts from a variety of financial entities such as JPMorgan or USB Group AG are revising their growth projections downward for Q1 2021 due to the increase in Covid-19 cases, delays in the vaccination program and the commercial disruption caused by Brexit. In concrete, GDP growth forecast revisions for Q1 2021 are: -Bloomberg foresees a 4% contraction against the 1.3% growth previously projected. -JP Morgan forecasts a decrease of 1% (vs. the +2% initially estimated). -USB is expecting a 0.4% contraction (vs. the +2.4% previously estimated). High-frequency indicators show how mobility in retail businesses is still between 20% and 40% below the levels of January 2019. For its part, retail sales showed a significant decrease in November of 6% monthly, while industrial production has remained stuck on +0.4% monthly since August. Employment, US Employment recovery in the US has weakened due to the increase in Covid-19 cases. In December 2020, non-farm payrolls fell by 140,000 workers compared to the previous month, according to the Department of Labor. The contraction mainly occurred in restaurants, bars and other businesses affected by the new mobility restrictions. By contrast, other labor market sectors such as retail, professional and commercial services, construction and the manufacturing sector maintained a solid rate of growth. At the same time, the number of long-term unemployed people fell, reaching its lowest point in the past 4 months (3.37 million people). For its part, the rate of unemployment remained at 6.7%, after a series of seven consecutive decreases. CPI, China In December 2020, China’s CPI (consumer price index) grew 0.2% year-on-year after November’s decrease (-0,5%). This upturn was largely due to the increase in food and energy prices. For its part, the fall in production prices (PPI) was reduced significantly to -0.4%, 1pp above the average registered for the year. Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2021. Evolution of prices, China YoY change (%) Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2021. Job creation by activity in December, US Var. thousands of jobs Evolution of economic activity, Eurozone Index January 2020 = 100, high frequency data Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bloomberg, Google and German Statistical Office, 2021.