Conference presented at the 95th Annual Meeting of the Potato Association of America. Wilmington NC Symposium - Breeding for Sustainable Production in a Changing Climate Understanding the Physiological Basis of Genetic and Environmental Interactions

1. Challenges to sustainable potato production
in a changing climate: A research
perspective
R. Quiroz, A. Posadas, C. Yarlequé, H. Heidinger, C. Barreda, R. Raymundo, C.
Gavilán, M. Carbajal, H. Loayza, H. Tonnang, J. Kroschel, G. Forbes, and S. De
Haan.
Centro Internacional de la Papa
August 15th 2011
Conference presented at the 95th Annual Meeting of the Potato Association of America. Wilmington NC
Symposium - Breeding for Sustainable Production in a Changing Climate
Understanding the Physiological Basis of Genetic and Environmental Interactions

2. Contents
• Potato in variable environments
• CC-Potato – Literature findings
• Summary of perceived research gaps
• Addressing research gaps at CIP
• Farmers adaptation strategies in the
Andes and tradeoffs

4. Temperature

5. Water & Nutrients

6. Light & CO2

7. Where is potato
Produced?

8. Potato acreage

10. It is about climate change w/o
forgetting climate variability

11. The concentration of
GHGs is rising
Long-term implications
for the climate and for
crop suitability

12. Areas where maximum temperature during the primary growing season
is currently < 30°C but will flip to > 30°C by 2050
Areas where rainfall per day decreases by 10 % or more between 2000 and 2050.

13. DIRECT EFFECTS:
elevated levels of Carbon dioxide on potato
crops
Leaf Processes Increased CO2
Photosynthetic rate •When exposed for a short period -
substantial increment
•Down regulation when grown continuously
in elevated CO2
Stomatal conductance •Decreases at elevated CO2
•Expected to increase WUE
Leaf Protein, •Contradictory responses, probably
associated to cultivar differences
Chlorophyll content
Starch / CHO content •Increases with long-term exposure to
elevated CO2

14. Effect of elevated levels of Carbon dioxide on
potato crops
Process Increased CO2
Changes in plant growth •Stimulates both above- and below-ground
biomass (early growing season)
and development •Period of active plant growth ends
prematurely
•Senescence begins earlier
•Limited growth rates towards the end of
growing season
Effects on crop yield •Tuber yield stimulated and magnitude
varies with cultivar and growing conditions
•Increase number of tubers
Effects on tuber quality •Increased tuber DM & starch content
•Reduced tuber N and glycoalkaloid
content

15. Effect of elevated Temperature on potato crops
•Elevated temperatures seems to reduce tuber initiation
•Temperature above the desired ones reduce the photosynthetic efficiency, thus
reducing potato growth
•High temperature may also reduce the ability of the plant to translocate
photosynthates to the tuber
•Elevated temperature increases DM partitioning to stems but reduces root,
stolon, tuber and total DM and total tuber number
•Offset the CO2 fertilization effect

16. INDIRECT EFFECT: potato pests and diseases
Baseline w/o crop protection 75 % of
potato production today would be
lost to pests
Major factors likely to •increased CO2,
influence plant disease •heavy and unseasonal rains,
severity and spread •increased humidity, droughts
and hurricanes,
•warmer winter temperatures

17. Changes in the •alterations in the geographical distribution of
climate are expected species,
to produce •increase overwintering,
•changes in population growth rates,
•increase the number of generations per
season,
•extension of the development season,
•changes in crop-pest synchrony,
•increase risk of invasion by migration pests,
•may cause the appearance of new
thermophilic species,
•changes in the physiology of
pathogens/insects and host plants,
•changes in host plants resistance to
infection/infestation,
•critical temperature/infection threshold,
•modification of pathogen aggressiveness
and/or host susceptibility

18. Knowledge gaps and research priorities:
Experimental analyses and model simulation to quantify:
- Effect of increasing CO2 on crops other than cereals, including
those of importance to the rural poor (e.g. local potato cultivars)
- Interaction between crop yields and other factors of production
(pests, diseases, weeds, etc.) under climate change conditions
- Impact of climate extreme events on crop yields
Reduce and quantify uncertainties of future prediction:
- Generate reliable data to test GCMs through hindcasting
- Improve the spatial resolution of climate predictions
Develop tools to evaluate adaptation strategies at different
spatial levels (cropping, farm, region)
- Link climate-pathogens-hosts interactions across scales
Evaluate actual applicability of adaptation strategies:
- Quality of seeds
- Cost and benefits (economic, social, environmental)
- Role of new technology (e.g. biotechnologies, fertilizers, etc.)
- Tradeoffs analyses

19. CIP advances on potato modeling
S. Tuberosum - tuberosum - andigena S. Ajanhuiri S. juzepczukii
Light
Light
Interception
LUE (—)
DM
PAR
Photosynthetic
Apparatus
Kg DM.ha¨¹.d ¨¹ T GC LAI
Light Reflectance
Tubers
Roots Stems Leaves

20. Improving model inputs
G
B R NIR

21. RS data for helping select tolerant potato cultivars
NDVI
0-0.1
0.1-0.2
0.2-0.3
0.3-0.4
0.4-0.5
0.5-0.6
Fresh yield (t/ha)
<16
>24
60 60
50 50
Fresh yield (t/ha)
Fresh yield (t/ha)
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Plot Plot
Normal irrigation
Deficit irrigation Terminal drought

22. MRI- Potato tuber scanning

23. MRI –potato root scanning

24. Coping with limited spatial-temporal coverage of climate data

25. From RS data to rainfall
(ppm)
HUANCANE
50
40
30
m.m.
20
10
0
1-Jan-99 20-Jul-99 5-Feb-00 23-Aug-00 11-Mar-01 27-Sep-01 15-Apr-02 1-Nov-02
Días
Source: Yarlequé et al., 2007

26. Andean Farmers: Adaptation strategies and potential tradeoffs

27. 20th Century Climate Change in Tropical Andes
Variable Assessment
Temperature Average warming of 0.09–0.15
◦C decade−1; western
slopes>highlands>eastern slopes
Relative humidity (near Increased 0 – 2.5 % decade−1;
surface levels)
Precipitation Little change in the latter half of
20th Century. Some increments in
Ecuador, NW Argentina and
Bolivian lowlands
Source: Vuille et al., 2003

28. Projected Climate: Andes

29. Late Blight (LB)
Warmer temperatures with
some humidity in higher
grounds will increase the
presence of potato late blight.
High incidence of LB in the
future (2050) above 3000
masl (highlighted in the map)
where it is virtually absent
today

30. Potato tuber moth (PTM)
PTM is actually present in
interandean valleys and the
coastal areas of the Andes
PTM is expected to climb as
well due to climate change

31. 60
45
Potato species
30
Solanum juzepczukii (juz)
15 Solanum tuberosum ssp. Andigena (and)
Solanum tuberosum ssp. Tuberosum (tub)
0
50 A B C
Solanum phureja (phu)
Solanum acaule (acl)
40
30
Cultivar and progenitors
20
10 (A) Luki
0 juz 100%
A B C (B) Gendarme
50
and 100%
40
(C) Sajama
30 Hybrid
20 and: 25%
tub: 50%
10
50
phu: 12.5%
0 acl 12.5%
40 A B C
30
20
50 Period
10
40
0
1965-1975
30
A B C 1976-1985
20
10
1986-1995
0
B C
1996-2005
A B C

32. As temperature and presence of pest increase in the
Andes Potatoes are planted in higher grounds
1975:
(4000-4150msnm)
2005:
(4150-4300msnm)
S. De Haan & H. Juarez, CIP (2008)

33. Putting pieces together for a hypothetical example:
Changes in potential potato (improved and native) in Peru: 2000-2050

34. Sampling-transect to assess carbon contents and stocks in Southern Peru.
Source: Segnini et al., 2010

35. Carbon stocks in diverse
Andean soils

36. Peatlands and other
land uses in the
Andean high
plateau

37. Potential loss of soil carbon stocks due to cropping
peatlands and grasslands in Peru & Bolivia
Peatlands to potato
350
300
Gigagrams (10x9)
250
200
150
100
50
0
2000 Scenarios 2050
Bolivia Peru
Grasslands to potato
12000
10000
Gigagrams (10x9)
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
2000 Scenarios 2050
Bolivia Peru

38. The challenge
(Climate smart agriculture)
Potato agriculture that sustainably increases productivity, resilience
(adaptation), reduces/removes greenhouse gases (mitigation), and
enhances achievement of national food security and development
goals.