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Challenges to sustainable potato production in a changing climate: A research perspective



Conference presented at the 95th Annual Meeting of the Potato Association of America. Wilmington NC
Symposium - Breeding for Sustainable Production in a Changing Climate Understanding the Physiological Basis of Genetic and Environmental Interactions

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Challenges to sustainable potato production in a changing climate: A research perspective

  1. 1. Challenges to sustainable potato production in a changing climate: A research perspective R. Quiroz, A. Posadas, C. Yarlequé, H. Heidinger, C. Barreda, R. Raymundo, C. Gavilán, M. Carbajal, H. Loayza, H. Tonnang, J. Kroschel, G. Forbes, and S. De Haan. Centro Internacional de la Papa August 15th 2011 Conference presented at the 95th Annual Meeting of the Potato Association of America. Wilmington NC Symposium - Breeding for Sustainable Production in a Changing Climate Understanding the Physiological Basis of Genetic and Environmental Interactions
  2. 2. Contents • Potato in variable environments • CC-Potato – Literature findings • Summary of perceived research gaps • Addressing research gaps at CIP • Farmers adaptation strategies in the Andes and tradeoffs
  3. 3. Temperature
  4. 4. Water & Nutrients
  5. 5. Light & CO2
  6. 6. Where is potato Produced?
  7. 7. Potato acreage
  8. 8. It is about climate change w/o forgetting climate variability
  9. 9. The concentration of GHGs is rising Long-term implications for the climate and for crop suitability
  10. 10. Areas where maximum temperature during the primary growing season is currently < 30°C but will flip to > 30°C by 2050 Areas where rainfall per day decreases by 10 % or more between 2000 and 2050.
  11. 11. DIRECT EFFECTS: elevated levels of Carbon dioxide on potato crops Leaf Processes Increased CO2 Photosynthetic rate •When exposed for a short period - substantial increment •Down regulation when grown continuously in elevated CO2 Stomatal conductance •Decreases at elevated CO2 •Expected to increase WUE Leaf Protein, •Contradictory responses, probably associated to cultivar differences Chlorophyll content Starch / CHO content •Increases with long-term exposure to elevated CO2
  12. 12. Effect of elevated levels of Carbon dioxide on potato crops Process Increased CO2 Changes in plant growth •Stimulates both above- and below-ground biomass (early growing season) and development •Period of active plant growth ends prematurely •Senescence begins earlier •Limited growth rates towards the end of growing season Effects on crop yield •Tuber yield stimulated and magnitude varies with cultivar and growing conditions •Increase number of tubers Effects on tuber quality •Increased tuber DM & starch content •Reduced tuber N and glycoalkaloid content
  13. 13. Effect of elevated Temperature on potato crops •Elevated temperatures seems to reduce tuber initiation •Temperature above the desired ones reduce the photosynthetic efficiency, thus reducing potato growth •High temperature may also reduce the ability of the plant to translocate photosynthates to the tuber •Elevated temperature increases DM partitioning to stems but reduces root, stolon, tuber and total DM and total tuber number •Offset the CO2 fertilization effect
  14. 14. INDIRECT EFFECT: potato pests and diseases Baseline w/o crop protection 75 % of potato production today would be lost to pests Major factors likely to •increased CO2, influence plant disease •heavy and unseasonal rains, severity and spread •increased humidity, droughts and hurricanes, •warmer winter temperatures
  15. 15. Changes in the •alterations in the geographical distribution of climate are expected species, to produce •increase overwintering, •changes in population growth rates, •increase the number of generations per season, •extension of the development season, •changes in crop-pest synchrony, •increase risk of invasion by migration pests, •may cause the appearance of new thermophilic species, •changes in the physiology of pathogens/insects and host plants, •changes in host plants resistance to infection/infestation, •critical temperature/infection threshold, •modification of pathogen aggressiveness and/or host susceptibility
  16. 16. Knowledge gaps and research priorities: Experimental analyses and model simulation to quantify: - Effect of increasing CO2 on crops other than cereals, including those of importance to the rural poor (e.g. local potato cultivars) - Interaction between crop yields and other factors of production (pests, diseases, weeds, etc.) under climate change conditions - Impact of climate extreme events on crop yields Reduce and quantify uncertainties of future prediction: - Generate reliable data to test GCMs through hindcasting - Improve the spatial resolution of climate predictions Develop tools to evaluate adaptation strategies at different spatial levels (cropping, farm, region) - Link climate-pathogens-hosts interactions across scales Evaluate actual applicability of adaptation strategies: - Quality of seeds - Cost and benefits (economic, social, environmental) - Role of new technology (e.g. biotechnologies, fertilizers, etc.) - Tradeoffs analyses
  17. 17. CIP advances on potato modeling S. Tuberosum - tuberosum - andigena S. Ajanhuiri S. juzepczukii Light Light Interception LUE (—) DM PAR Photosynthetic Apparatus Kg DM.ha¨¹.d ¨¹ T GC LAI Light Reflectance Tubers Roots Stems Leaves
  18. 18. Improving model inputs G B R NIR
  19. 19. RS data for helping select tolerant potato cultivars NDVI 0-0.1 0.1-0.2 0.2-0.3 0.3-0.4 0.4-0.5 0.5-0.6 Fresh yield (t/ha) <16 >24 60 60 50 50 Fresh yield (t/ha) Fresh yield (t/ha) 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Plot Plot Normal irrigation Deficit irrigation Terminal drought
  20. 20. MRI- Potato tuber scanning
  21. 21. MRI –potato root scanning
  22. 22. Coping with limited spatial-temporal coverage of climate data
  23. 23. From RS data to rainfall (ppm) HUANCANE 50 40 30 m.m. 20 10 0 1-Jan-99 20-Jul-99 5-Feb-00 23-Aug-00 11-Mar-01 27-Sep-01 15-Apr-02 1-Nov-02 Días Source: Yarlequé et al., 2007
  24. 24. Andean Farmers: Adaptation strategies and potential tradeoffs
  25. 25. 20th Century Climate Change in Tropical Andes Variable Assessment Temperature Average warming of 0.09–0.15 ◦C decade−1; western slopes>highlands>eastern slopes Relative humidity (near Increased 0 – 2.5 % decade−1; surface levels) Precipitation Little change in the latter half of 20th Century. Some increments in Ecuador, NW Argentina and Bolivian lowlands Source: Vuille et al., 2003
  26. 26. Projected Climate: Andes
  27. 27. Late Blight (LB) Warmer temperatures with some humidity in higher grounds will increase the presence of potato late blight. High incidence of LB in the future (2050) above 3000 masl (highlighted in the map) where it is virtually absent today
  28. 28. Potato tuber moth (PTM) PTM is actually present in interandean valleys and the coastal areas of the Andes PTM is expected to climb as well due to climate change
  29. 29. 60 45 Potato species 30 Solanum juzepczukii (juz) 15 Solanum tuberosum ssp. Andigena (and) Solanum tuberosum ssp. Tuberosum (tub) 0 50 A B C Solanum phureja (phu) Solanum acaule (acl) 40 30 Cultivar and progenitors 20 10 (A) Luki 0 juz 100% A B C (B) Gendarme 50 and 100% 40 (C) Sajama 30 Hybrid 20 and: 25% tub: 50% 10 50 phu: 12.5% 0 acl 12.5% 40 A B C 30 20 50 Period 10 40 0 1965-1975 30 A B C 1976-1985 20 10 1986-1995 0 B C 1996-2005 A B C
  30. 30. As temperature and presence of pest increase in the Andes Potatoes are planted in higher grounds 1975: (4000-4150msnm) 2005: (4150-4300msnm) S. De Haan & H. Juarez, CIP (2008)
  31. 31. Putting pieces together for a hypothetical example: Changes in potential potato (improved and native) in Peru: 2000-2050
  32. 32. Sampling-transect to assess carbon contents and stocks in Southern Peru. Source: Segnini et al., 2010
  33. 33. Carbon stocks in diverse Andean soils
  34. 34. Peatlands and other land uses in the Andean high plateau
  35. 35. Potential loss of soil carbon stocks due to cropping peatlands and grasslands in Peru & Bolivia Peatlands to potato 350 300 Gigagrams (10x9) 250 200 150 100 50 0 2000 Scenarios 2050 Bolivia Peru Grasslands to potato 12000 10000 Gigagrams (10x9) 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2000 Scenarios 2050 Bolivia Peru
  36. 36. The challenge (Climate smart agriculture) Potato agriculture that sustainably increases productivity, resilience (adaptation), reduces/removes greenhouse gases (mitigation), and enhances achievement of national food security and development goals.