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Application of Trade Off Analysis (TOA) model in 3G potato project

  1. 1. By Obado J, Labarta R and Thiele G 4th March 2010
  2. 2. Rapid growth in potato demand in kenya Low quantity of high quality seed(required per year 66000 tones, available 89 tons) Limited capacity to produce high quality seed(6 generation) Low yields from local varieties due to low disease resistance (LB, BW and virus)
  3. 3. Designed to increase production of high quality seed in Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda (Ethiopia by extension) Reduce the period of seed production from 6 to 3 generation (aeroponics) Increase the availability and accessibility of high quality seed in the region through massive seed production through -aerponics/trained seed multipliers -PPP in seed production and capacity building
  4. 4. Demonstration of the benefits of using high quality seed Increase the availability of High Quality Seed through massive production (PPP) (from >1% to 10%) Reduce cost of seed incurred by the farmer (seed = 30% of potato income) Increase adaptability through good potato mgt
  5. 5. To estimate the adoption of clean seed in Kenya To determine whether subsidy is appropriate to increase adoption of HQS
  6. 6. The study has been done using data collected from Kenya. System 1=Ordinary seed data (base system) System 2=Use of certified/clean seed
  7. 7. Certified seed: yield increase by 35% from the use of initial ordinary seed Weights of seed type used are expected to change with more land allocated for clean/certified seed It assumed that land area under ordinary seed will reduce by 20% hence increase area under clean/certified seed(20%)
  8. 8. Variable System 1 (Ordinary seed) System 2 (certified seed) Yield 8.93ton/ha 30% increase Cost 665.7USD/ha 812.14USD/ha Price 160USD 160USD CV 76.44% 76.44% Weight1 0.711 0.289 Weight 2 0.5688 0.431
  9. 9. 88.7% of farmers would shift to clean seed and good potato management an increase in subsidy results in increased adoption 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 PES 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 88 90 92 94 96 98 100 Adopt_A
  10. 10. About 66 acres will be used for clean seed 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 PES 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 Eserv_A
  11. 11. Through use of certified seed and proper potato management, farmers would report an income of 1,543USD/ha (352USD more) 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 PES 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 IncHa_A
  12. 12. Case 1: CVs is fixed the same for the two systems Case 2: CV increases in system 2 by 20%
  13. 13. Adoption rate 82% from 89% Land under clean seed reduces to 62 from 66 acres Income per ha reduces from 1543 to 1408USD
  14. 14. More analysis will be done using different regions and systems Different countries’ data be analyzed in detail

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