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Zillow Economic Update at NAREE

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An economic update presented by Stan Humphries, Chief Economist at Zillow.

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Zillow Economic Update at NAREE

  1. 1. Three Things Nobodys Telling You About The Housing Market National Association of Real Estate Editors June 2011 Stan Humphries, PhD Chief Economist stan@zillow.com 206.470.7127
  2. 2. #1: While the purchase market is still down, rentals are getting stronger 1.2 to 2.2 million homeowners transitioning from owners to renters 2 Source: Zillow, Census
  3. 3. #1: While the purchase market is still down, rentals are getting stronger Household formation was picking up again until recently. Outstripping new home completions by about 700K annualized. 3 Source: Zillow, Census
  4. 4. #1: While the purchase market is still down, rentals are getting stronger Slow but steady improvement in multi- family housing starts versus fits and starts for single-family 4 Source: Census
  5. 5. #2: For non-distressed, there’s no double-dip 5 Source: Zillow, S&P
  6. 6. #2: For non-distressed, there’s no double-dip Good news: Organic improvement in depreciation rates for four months now. Bad news: Current pace of improvement puts bottom in mid- 2013. 6 Source: Zillow
  7. 7. #3: There’s no free lunch – tax credits didn’t really work Existing Home Sales (millions)76543210 Jan Jun Aug Jan Jun Aug Jan Jun Aug Jan Nov Dec Nov Dec Nov Dec Mar Apr Mar Apr Mar Apr Mar Apr Jul Jul Jul Feb Sep Oct Feb Sep Oct Feb Sep Oct Feb May May May 2008 2009 2010 2011 7 Source: NAR
  8. 8. #3: There’s no free lunch – tax credits didn’t really work Existing Home Sales (millions)76543210 Jan Jun Aug Jan Jun Aug Jan Jun Aug Jan Nov Dec Nov Dec Nov Dec Mar Apr Mar Apr Mar Apr Mar Apr Jul Jul Jul Feb Sep Oct Feb Sep Oct Feb Sep Oct Feb May May May 2008 2009 2010 2011 8 Source: NAR
  9. 9. #3: There’s no free lunch – tax credits didn’t really work Existing Home Sales (millions)76543210 Jan Jun Aug Jan Jun Aug Jan Jun Aug Jan Nov Dec Nov Dec Nov Dec Mar Apr Mar Apr Mar Apr Mar Apr Jul Jul Jul Feb Sep Oct Feb Sep Oct Feb Sep Oct Feb May May May 2008 2009 2010 2011 9 Source: NAR
  10. 10. What were watching in the market right now • Conforming loan limits: We dont think they will have much of an effect, but were watching closely. • Foreclosure re-sales: We think they will peak in 2011. • Household formation rate: We’ll need these to really pick up again in order to work down excess inventory. 10

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