1. Presentation on Rio Meeting
Summary and Summary report of
the Security Council of the UN
Carolina Navarrete-Frias
Global Canopy Programme - GCP
International Center for Tropical Agriculture – CIAT
Climate and Development Knowledge Network - CDKN

2. Climate Change as a
“Threat Multiplier”
CC as a
“Threat
Multiplier”
4) Threats to
2) Threats to 3) Threats from International
1) Threats to
Economic Uncoordinated Cooperation in
Human Well-Being
Development Coping Managing Shared
Resources
Source: UN General Assembly (2009). Climate change and its possible security implications. Report of the Secretary-General

3. CC “Threat Multiplier”
1. THREATS TO HUMAN WELL-BEING
Agriculture & Water Health Coastal areas, human
Food Security settlements & infrastructure
↑ Water stress ↑Conditions for ↑ Sea levels
↑ Risk of hunger transmission of diarrhea,
↑ Malnutrition ↑ Freshwater shortages
and malnutrition dengue fever, malaria
↑Mass losses from glaciers ↑ Coastlines to inundation
↑ Risk of food ↑Disease susceptibility
↑Water shortages in island ↑ Shoreline erosion
insecurity from malnutrition
↓ Water availability ↑ Disease outbreaks
Food shortages ↑Diseases/deaths from
↓Hydropower potential ↑ Inundations
extreme weather events ↑ Threat to coastal
(heat/ cold stress) production systems &
infrastructure

4. CC as a “Threat Multiplier”
• Erode the revenue base of Governments
2. THREATS TO • Undermine governance capacities
• Affect economy’s output (crop losses from drought, flooding)
ECONOMIC
• Diminish human and animal productivity
DEVELOPMENT • Cause land degradation
• Damage to infrastructure (roads, ports…)
Most affected will be
economies relying on a In combination with a number of
limited number of primary political, economic and societal factors, could
products at risk from
result in:
climate impacts (single
crop agriculture &
fisheries) • growing tensions over increasingly scare
natural resources
• decreased State authority and increase risk of
domestic strife
• political instability and radicalization
Source: UN General Assembly (2009). Climate change and its possible security implications. Report of the Secretary-General

5. CC as a “Threat Multiplier”
3. THREATS FROM UNCOORDINATED COPING
Population displacement Threat of intra –State Threat of loss of territory
and involuntary migration conflict and statelessness
-↑
- Environmental factors may -↑ Sea levels (especially island
Displacement, migration, involunt
increase risk of conflict states)
ary migration and hence
dynamics - Threat of statelessness to small
difficulties of adaptation to CC
- Caused by high population islands
(especially in urban areas)
density (migration), natural - Threat to cultural survival
-↑ Pressure on
resource shortages
food, housing, education, health
and water supply by migrants
- Conflict or tension in areas
receiving migrants
Source: UN General Assembly (2009). Climate change and its possible security implications. Report of the Secretary-General

6. CC as a “Threat Multiplier”
4. THREATS TO • Possible conflicts of interests over the use of
INTERNATIONAL transboundary resources (e.g. water) that become
increasingly scarce as a result of CC.
COOPERATION IN
MANAGING SHARED • Possible statelessness could impact current disputes
over maritime sovereignty
RESOURCES
Source: UN General Assembly (2009). Climate change and its possible security implications. Report of the Secretary-General

7. What should we do from the
CDKN-Amazonia project?
The key towards effective solution of the problems is to turn threats
into opportunities
• Identify policies that are increasing vulnerability and enhance them, starting
with the national development agenda.
• Prioritize the most urgent needs so as to take advantage of the opportunities of
the securities (e.g. infrastructure development).
• Include social security in the agenda.
• Look at the process and the interdependencies between the securities, taking
benefit-sharing mechanisms as a basis for institutional arrangement

8. Final Thoughts: What do we need?
• Search thoroughly for the drivers aggravating the problems in the
securities (e.g. deforestation).
• Prioritize interventions according to communities, country based
needs, and regional perspective
• Identify trade-offs in terms of prioritization and fund investment (cost
benefit)
• Reinvent sovereignty: new forms of inter-state cooperation is required
We see climate change as …
… a threat multiplier to these security risk
… an opportunity to create new constellations of dialogue and trans boundary
cooperation

9. CIAT’s and GCP’s Work in this
Direction…
Understand how CC exacerbates food, water, energy, and health
security in the Amazon region which impacts on sustainable
development as well as potentially triggering conflict over access to
these securities.
Look at the impacts of CC beyond borders and highlight the
interdependency between the four securities.
Project Outcome: A set of policy recommendations aimed at multi-
sectoral decision makers, reframing climate in the development
agenda and focusing on regional cooperation, highlighting the
potential to shift from a threat multiplier to an opportunity
multiplier.

10. OUR EXPERTS
Mark Mulligan and Jorge Rubiano - Water Security
Rodomiro Ortiz - Food Security
Science Ulisses Confalonieri - Health Security
André Lucena - Energy Security
Andy Jarvis, Helen Bellfield and
Luis Meneses - Science Leaders.
Carolina Navarrete – Policy
Robert Hofstede - Policy Regional
Leader supported by Senior
Advisory Panel.
Policy Rodrigo Botero - Policy National Expert for Colombia
Niki Mardas - Communication
Leader Carlos Scarramuzza - Policy National Expert for Brazil
Jorge Malleux - Policy National Expert for Peru
Communications

11. Thank you!
a.jarvis@cgiar.org
c.navarrete@cgiar.org
http://dapa.ciat.cgiar.org
http://www.ccafs.cgiar.org