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Jim Hansen, CCAFS Flagship 2 Leader, IRI
Webinar: Climate Services for Smallholder Farmers and Pastoralists in Africa
23 N...
HOURS DAYS WEEKS MONTHS YEARS DECADES CENTURIES
WEATHER
HOURS DAYS WEEKS MONTHS YEARS DECADES CENTURIES
CLIMATE
VARIABILITY
HOURS DAYS WEEKS MONTHS YEARS DECADES CENTURIES
CLIMATE
CHANGE
From weather to climate services
• All time scales relevant
• Information needs depend
on decisions
• With increasing lead...
From weather to climate services
• Climate services more than
adding climate products
to weather services
 Generation
 T...
1-Minute History of Climate Services
• 1910-20s Sir Gilbert Walker – Southern Oscillation
• 1960s Jacob Bjerkens – connect...
What will it take for climate services to work for
smallholder farmers and pastoralists – at scale?
 Capacity to communic...
Capacity to communicate, understand, act on
information: Interactive rural radio
• Radio and mobile phones complement face...
Capacity to communicate, understand, act on
information: PICSA
• Developed by University of Reading,
with CCAFS, IRI
• Pil...
Capacity to communicate, understand, act on
information: PICSA
• Understand historical climate
 Trends and variability
 ...
Capacity to communicate, understand, act on
information: PICSA
• Understand historical climate
• Participatory planning
 ...
Climate services for farmers: PICSA
• Understand historical climate
• Participatory planning
• Downscaled seasonal forecas...
Building NMS capacity to provide actionable
climate information
• Farmers’ relevance challenges:
 Local spatial scale
 S...
Building NMS capacity to provide actionable
climate information
• Enhancing National Climate Services
• Satellite + statio...
Balancing scalable services with context-
specific needs?
• The dilemma
• Methodology responsive to local
needs, yet scala...
Thank you!
Jim Hansen: jhansen@iri.columbia.edu
Webinar on ‘Climate Services for Smallholder Farmers and Pastoralists Africa’
Rwanda Climate Services for
Agriculture Proj...
Project short history
• Funded by USAID
• Coordinated by CCAFS
• Implementing partners include:
 Key agencies: RAB, Meteo...
Aim of the project
To benefit nearly one million farmers by 2019, and
transform Rwanda’s rural farming communities and
nat...
Key project activities
Outcome 1: Climate Services
for Farmers
1. Baseline information about
farmers’ climate information
...
Research methodology and approaches
1. Use of decentralised agricultural extension model “Twigire Muhinzi”
2. Partnerships...
Channeling climate services information through a decentralized
agricultural extension model
Preliminary results
52 % (1,328)
Male Farmers
29,736 Farmers (12,786 Males,
16,950 Females )
83% of 2559 farmers
reaching 14 farmers
through f...
Dissemination of climate services through PICSA
• Trainees to understand historical climate
 Trends and variability
 Der...
Dissemination of climate services through PICSA (cont’d)
• Understand historical climate
• Participatory planning
 Curren...
Dissemination of climate services through PICSA (cont’d)
• Understand historical climate
• Participatory planning
• Downsc...
Climate information provision: Extending ENACTS
• Derived agromet quantities:
 Season onset, cessation,
duration
 Freque...
Success stories
• 28 “expert trainers” in the PICSA approach contributed to train 72 (33%
female) FP, SEDOs and sector agr...
Lessons from Rwanda experience
• Climate services builds on Rwanda’s innovative Twigire
Muhinzi extension model
• Rwanda’s...
Thank you for the attention
Tufa Dinku
tufa@iri.columbia.edu
Emerging Lessons and
experiences from Africa
Outline
I. Climate Data as the Foundation for Climate Information
Services(CIS)
II. Challenges to Availability of and Acce...
On past, present, and future
climate is one of the critical
inputs
Climate
Information
Provided the required
climate infor...
Climate Climate Data as the Foundation of Climate Services
Good data:
Strong foundation
 Reliable climate
information pr...
Climate Climate Data as the Foundation of Climate Services
Bad/No data:
Weak foundation
 Unreliable climate
information
...
II. Challenges to Availability of and Access to Climate Data in Africa
1. Number of weather stations not adequate over man...
Challenges to Availability of and Access to Climate Data in Africa
2. Serious gaps in observations (missing data)
3. Quest...
III. The ENACTS Approach
• ENACTS = Enhancing National Climate Services
• Strives to simultaneously improve availability, ...
The Three Pillars of ENACTS
Improve Availability
• Build capacity of NMHS
• Quality Control station
data
• Combine station...
ENACTS: Major Outputs
• Over 30/50-years of climate time series for every 4km grid across
each country:
o Now data availab...
ENACTS Countries
ENACTS Countries:
Ethiopia
Gambia
Ghana
Madagascar
Mali
Rwanda
Tanzania
Zambia
Kenya
Uganda
Malawi
ENACTS Countries
IV. Examples of Applications
Agriculture-Rwanda
Climate Services for Agriculture: Empowering Farmers to Manage
Risk and Ad...
Examples of Applications
Health:- Ethiopia, Tanzania, Rwanda
Impact evaluation for Malaria Interventions
•Evaluates the im...
Examples of Applications
Research: Ethiopia
• The Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency(NMA) was
the 1st to Implement E...
Tufa Dinku
tufa@iri.columbia.edu
web: iri.columbia.edu
@climatesociety
…/climatesociety
Thank You
Good Practices and
Challenges on Borana
Indigenous Weather
Forecasting Services
By
Ayal Desalegn
Presentation outline
1. Purpose of the Research
2. Description of the Study area and the research Methodology
3. Indigenou...
The purpose of the Research
• This research assess the nature of biotic and abiotic Borana weather
forecasting systems
• E...
Description of the Study area and the research Methodology
• The study was conducted in Borana (in
CCAFS’s learning site)
...
Description of the Study area and the research Methodology Cont’
• There livelihood is climate sensitive
• In Borana the f...
Description of the Study area and the research Cont’
• In this research mixed research method was used
• Data was collecte...
Indigenous weather forecast System
• The idea and practice of indigenous weather forecasting is inbuilt in
many cultures a...
Indigenous weather forecast System
In Borana weather forecast is made using Abiotic and Biotic
Weather Forecast indicators...
Astrological weather forecasting
• Star-moon alignment (Lemi)
• Geometrical alignment of
celestial bodies (Bussan)
• The a...
Intestinal Reading
• Large intestine (Kechuma)
• Small intestine
• Lump node (Kabello)
• Blood vessel (vein)
Flower abundance and timing of Tedecha (acacia), Ret (Aloe) trees
The activities of cattle, squirrel (Tuka), bees, ants, t...
System of Disseminating weather Forecasts
• The Borana herders forecast and share weather information using well organized...
System of Disseminating Climate Forecasts Cont’
• Alternatively, information is announced in market places, water points
a...
Responses to the weather forecasting
Based on the disseminated forecast information the Borana herders take coping and
ada...
Credibility of Indigenous Weather Forecasting
• The precision and credibility of all modes of
traditional weather forecast...
Credibility of Indigenous Weather Forecasting
Poor documentation
Oral based knowledge transfer system
Influence of religio...
Recommendation
• Traditional wisdom could serve as a starting point to scientifically study
the relationship between vario...
Thank You !
BUILDING A TEAM OF STAKEHOLDERS :
MULTI-DISCIPLINARY APPROACH.
 National Level :
 National Weather Service (ANACIM)
 Mi...
Building on local knowledge:
High humidity and high temperatures can explain some of
their indicators  “Stronger monsoon”...
• Field preparation :
• Selecting the crop :
• Planting :
• Weeding :
• Applying fertilizer,
pesticide, …
• Harvesting :
•...
Seasonal forecast
 varieties
Onset forecast
 farm preparation
Nowcasting
 flooding saving life (thunder)
Daily forecast...
team work : farmers, climatologist, World Vision, Agriculture expert, sociologist
TALKING THE SAME LANGUAGE : “WHAT 1 MM OF
RAIN MEANS”
Climateinformation
Seasonal forecast Weather forecast Nowcasting
Local working Group
(Customize Climate information)
Farme...
Formal document establishing the GTP
by local authority
Network of community radios used to disseminate
climate inormation
First step : building trust (social dimension : using indigeneous
knowledge)
Giving not only useful BUT useable forecast...
CONCLUSION OR CHALLENGES
 Spatial scale of the forecast : down to farm
 scaling-up other sites (government representativ...
Webinar: Climate Services for Smallholder Farmers and Pastoralists in Africa
Webinar: Climate Services for Smallholder Farmers and Pastoralists in Africa
Webinar: Climate Services for Smallholder Farmers and Pastoralists in Africa
Webinar: Climate Services for Smallholder Farmers and Pastoralists in Africa
Webinar: Climate Services for Smallholder Farmers and Pastoralists in Africa
Webinar: Climate Services for Smallholder Farmers and Pastoralists in Africa
Webinar: Climate Services for Smallholder Farmers and Pastoralists in Africa
Webinar: Climate Services for Smallholder Farmers and Pastoralists in Africa
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Webinar: Climate Services for Smallholder Farmers and Pastoralists in Africa

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Webinar: Climate Services for Smallholder Farmers and Pastoralists in Africa

  1. 1. Jim Hansen, CCAFS Flagship 2 Leader, IRI Webinar: Climate Services for Smallholder Farmers and Pastoralists in Africa 23 November 2016 Setting the Scene: A Global Perspective on Climate Services
  2. 2. HOURS DAYS WEEKS MONTHS YEARS DECADES CENTURIES WEATHER
  3. 3. HOURS DAYS WEEKS MONTHS YEARS DECADES CENTURIES CLIMATE VARIABILITY
  4. 4. HOURS DAYS WEEKS MONTHS YEARS DECADES CENTURIES CLIMATE CHANGE
  5. 5. From weather to climate services • All time scales relevant • Information needs depend on decisions • With increasing lead time:  Decisions more context- and farmer-specific  Information more uncertain, complex  Therefore scope of services needed increases
  6. 6. From weather to climate services • Climate services more than adding climate products to weather services  Generation  Translation  Communication  Application
  7. 7. 1-Minute History of Climate Services • 1910-20s Sir Gilbert Walker – Southern Oscillation • 1960s Jacob Bjerkens – connected El Nino with Southern Oscillation • 1982 El Nino  Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Program  International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) • 1980-90s Climate-agriculture systems analysis in Australia • 1997 El Nino ➤ Surge of research and investment • 1997 Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) • 2009 World Climate Conference-3 ➤ UN Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) • 2011 First ICCS ➤ Climate Services Partnership (CSP) • From climate research + “applications” to “climate services”
  8. 8. What will it take for climate services to work for smallholder farmers and pastoralists – at scale?  Capacity to communicate, understand, act on climate- related information  Farmers  Government and institutions  Capacity to provide actionable information  Balance scalable services with context-specific needs  Institutional arrangements to sustain co-development of services  Evidence to support and guide investment
  9. 9. Capacity to communicate, understand, act on information: Interactive rural radio • Radio and mobile phones complement face- to-face communication • Combining radio and mobile phones  Bulk SMS  Interactive Voice Response (IVR)  “Beep-4-...” services • Programming: Call-in shows, panel discussions, village dialogues, dramas • Listener groups • Gender-sensitive programming • Emerging area, supported by evidence of impact of Participatory Radio Campaigns
  10. 10. Capacity to communicate, understand, act on information: PICSA • Developed by University of Reading, with CCAFS, IRI • Piloted in Kenya, Senegal, Mali, Ghana, Zimbabwe, Tanzania, Malawi • Extensive use of local historic data and forecasts, graphs • Mainstream into agricultural extension, intermediaries, through training • Combine with radio, ICT
  11. 11. Capacity to communicate, understand, act on information: PICSA • Understand historical climate  Trends and variability  Derived seasonal quantities  Crop requirements and risks
  12. 12. Capacity to communicate, understand, act on information: PICSA • Understand historical climate • Participatory planning  Current livelihood system  Options to improve system
  13. 13. Climate services for farmers: PICSA • Understand historical climate • Participatory planning • Downscaled seasonal forecasts  Training on new probability formats  Adjust seasonal planning • Depends on information that NMS often don’t routinely provide.
  14. 14. Building NMS capacity to provide actionable climate information • Farmers’ relevance challenges:  Local spatial scale  Season characteristics: timing, spells, water balance, extremes  Consistency between seasonal forecast and historical variability  Transparent communication of variability, accuracy • NMS capacity challenges:  Parent ministry mandate  Human & financial resources  Cost of responding to user requests  Sparse historic observations  Data policy, incentives ?
  15. 15. Building NMS capacity to provide actionable climate information • Enhancing National Climate Services • Satellite + station, ~5 km grid, >30-50 year complete record • Production and dissemination of an expanding suite of information products through online “maprooms” • NMHS capacity development mode • Expanding ENACTS and connecting with PICSA communication processes STATION BLENDED SATELLIT E
  16. 16. Balancing scalable services with context- specific needs? • The dilemma • Methodology responsive to local needs, yet scalable  PICSA  ENACTS • Institutionalize farmers’ voice • Early wins that are relevant to many • Iterative assessment and refinement processes
  17. 17. Thank you! Jim Hansen: jhansen@iri.columbia.edu
  18. 18. Webinar on ‘Climate Services for Smallholder Farmers and Pastoralists Africa’ Rwanda Climate Services for Agriculture Project Highlights Kagabo Désiré Nsengiyumvand a Gloriose 23rd November 2016
  19. 19. Project short history • Funded by USAID • Coordinated by CCAFS • Implementing partners include:  Key agencies: RAB, Meteo-Rwanda and their parent Ministries  Technical partners: CIAT, IRI, ILRI, ICRAF, U of Reading • September 2015 through 2019 • Implemented across the country • 4 districts were covered in Year One and 6 districts targeted in year Two
  20. 20. Aim of the project To benefit nearly one million farmers by 2019, and transform Rwanda’s rural farming communities and national economy through climate services and improved climate risk management
  21. 21. Key project activities Outcome 1: Climate Services for Farmers 1. Baseline information about farmers’ climate information use, access and needs 2. Deliver climate information services for agriculture to nearly One Million People nationwide (through PICSA and other tools) 3. Strengthen capacity and incorporate user feedback on climate information services 4. Develop, implement and assess a new ICT or media- based climate service communication tools 5. Incorporate probability-of- exceedance products into PICSA process and training materials Outcome 2: Climate Services for Government Planning 1. Develop and test a water balance-based tool for early assessment of drought impacts on crop production and food security 2. Develop and test a tool for location-specific optimization of planting date Outcome 3: Climate Information Provision 1. Build capacity of Meteo Rwanda by providing innovative climate services based on user feedback 2. Refining gridded climate data products 3. Develop climate service products and tools based on users’ needs 4. Conduct operation research to improve understanding of Rwanda’s climate and its forecasting Outcome 4: National Climate Services Governance 1. Form a climate service advisory committee representing key agencies 2. Develop Terms of Reference for the Advisory Committee, including the development of sustainable national climate services governance process beyond the duration of the project
  22. 22. Research methodology and approaches 1. Use of decentralised agricultural extension model “Twigire Muhinzi” 2. Partnerships with intermediary organizations (agriculture extension agencies, value chain actors, NGOs, private sector, etc.) 3. Use of communication channels based on ICT, media (e.g. radio, tv, etc.) 4. Use of a multi-disciplinary and participatory approach (e.g. PICSA) to deliver climate services information 5. Capacity building of government agencies, NGOs and farmers 6. Development of climate services products tailored to end users’ needs
  23. 23. Channeling climate services information through a decentralized agricultural extension model
  24. 24. Preliminary results
  25. 25. 52 % (1,328) Male Farmers 29,736 Farmers (12,786 Males, 16,950 Females ) 83% of 2559 farmers reaching 14 farmers through farmer-to-farmer communication Preliminary results 4Districts 48 Farmer Promoters, 4district agronomists, 12 sector agronomists and 12 SEDOs 2,559 Farmers 48% (1,231) Female Farmers
  26. 26. Dissemination of climate services through PICSA • Trainees to understand historical climate  Trends and variability  Derived seasonal quantities  Crop requirements and risks
  27. 27. Dissemination of climate services through PICSA (cont’d) • Understand historical climate • Participatory planning  Current livelihood system  Options to improve system
  28. 28. Dissemination of climate services through PICSA (cont’d) • Understand historical climate • Participatory planning • Downscaled seasonal forecasts  Training on new probability formats  Adjust seasonal planning
  29. 29. Climate information provision: Extending ENACTS • Derived agromet quantities:  Season onset, cessation, duration  Frequency of damaging dry spells; wet, heat, cold extremes  Growing degree-days  Water balance, WRSI • Seasonal forecasts:  Statistically downscaled  Same derived quantities  Full probability distribution  In context of historic climate
  30. 30. Success stories • 28 “expert trainers” in the PICSA approach contributed to train 72 (33% female) FP, SEDOs and sector agronomists • Farmer Promoters trained their fellows 2,559 farmers (48% female) • More than 97% of respondents (206) as a result of the PICSA training said:  confident about their farming and livelihood decision-making  expect to improve their household food security and income  see farming as more of a business than previously  feel better prepared to cope with bad seasons caused by the weather • 83% of respondents shared the information on average to 14 people with peers outside of their households
  31. 31. Lessons from Rwanda experience • Climate services builds on Rwanda’s innovative Twigire Muhinzi extension model • Rwanda’s open data policy • Integrate innovative good practices:  Overcome data poverty  Strengthen capacity for supply and effective demand of climate services  Balance local relevance, with scalability • Legacy of sustained capacity and governance
  32. 32. Thank you for the attention
  33. 33. Tufa Dinku tufa@iri.columbia.edu Emerging Lessons and experiences from Africa
  34. 34. Outline I. Climate Data as the Foundation for Climate Information Services(CIS) II. Challenges to Availability of and Access to Climate Data and Information Products in Africa III. The ENACTS Approach IV. Applications
  35. 35. On past, present, and future climate is one of the critical inputs Climate Information Provided the required climate information products Climate Services Foundation for delivery of climate services Climate Data Climate- Resilient Development Necessary to manage current climate variability and adapt to climate change I. Climate Data as the Foundation for CIS
  36. 36. Climate Climate Data as the Foundation of Climate Services Good data: Strong foundation  Reliable climate information products and services Climate Data Climate Services Climate Data
  37. 37. Climate Climate Data as the Foundation of Climate Services Bad/No data: Weak foundation  Unreliable climate information products and services Climate Data Climate Services Climate Data http://www.vareen.com/Travels/Brighton.htm
  38. 38. II. Challenges to Availability of and Access to Climate Data in Africa 1. Number of weather stations not adequate over many parts Africa, and it has been declining in many places Declining investment Conflicts Declining volunteer stations
  39. 39. Challenges to Availability of and Access to Climate Data in Africa 2. Serious gaps in observations (missing data) 3. Questionable data quality
  40. 40. III. The ENACTS Approach • ENACTS = Enhancing National Climate Services • Strives to simultaneously improve availability, access and use of climate information. • Works with NMHS to quality-control all available station data and combine them with satellite and reanalysis products. • The main focus of ENACTS is creation of reliable climate information products for local decision-making.
  41. 41. The Three Pillars of ENACTS Improve Availability • Build capacity of NMHS • Quality Control station data • Combine station data with proxies • Improve seasonal forecast E N A C T S Enhance Access • Install IRI Data Library •Develop online tools for data analysis and visualization • Create mechanisms for data sharing Promote Use Engage users: • Raise awareness • Build capacity of users to understand and use climate info • Involve users in product development
  42. 42. ENACTS: Major Outputs • Over 30/50-years of climate time series for every 4km grid across each country: o Now data available where there are no stations • Installation of the IRI Data Library at NMHS o A powerful tool for generating climate information • Unprecedented online access to information products: o Satisfies the needs of many users o Overcomes (partly) the challenges of data access • Built capacity at NMHS and some user communities
  43. 43. ENACTS Countries ENACTS Countries: Ethiopia Gambia Ghana Madagascar Mali Rwanda Tanzania Zambia Kenya Uganda Malawi
  44. 44. ENACTS Countries
  45. 45. IV. Examples of Applications Agriculture-Rwanda Climate Services for Agriculture: Empowering Farmers to Manage Risk and Adapt to a Changing Climate in Rwanda • Funded by USAID Rwanda Mission($6M); • Climate information specifically for small-holder farmers; • Builds on ENACTS data data and products:- would have been difficult without ENACTS.
  46. 46. Examples of Applications Health:- Ethiopia, Tanzania, Rwanda Impact evaluation for Malaria Interventions •Evaluates the impact/contribution of climate in malaria control interventions of the PMI(Presidents’ Malaria Initiative); •Funded by PMI-USAID; •Uses ENACTS data and products at different administrative levels
  47. 47. Examples of Applications Research: Ethiopia • The Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency(NMA) was the 1st to Implement ENACTS; • Over the last three years NMA has provided ENACTS data to many students from different universities across the country; • Many of these research activities would have been difficult without ENACTS data that is available for nay part of the country.
  48. 48. Tufa Dinku tufa@iri.columbia.edu web: iri.columbia.edu @climatesociety …/climatesociety Thank You
  49. 49. Good Practices and Challenges on Borana Indigenous Weather Forecasting Services By Ayal Desalegn
  50. 50. Presentation outline 1. Purpose of the Research 2. Description of the Study area and the research Methodology 3. Indigenous weather forecast System 4. Findings of the research  Abiotic and Biotic climate forecasting system  Forecast information dissemination & socioeconomic preparations  Credibility of Indigenous Weather Forecasting
  51. 51. The purpose of the Research • This research assess the nature of biotic and abiotic Borana weather forecasting systems • Evaluate the precision and credibility of different indigenous weather forecasting systems
  52. 52. Description of the Study area and the research Methodology • The study was conducted in Borana (in CCAFS’s learning site) • The region is dominated by a semi-arid weather with a bi-modal rainfall regime • About 59 % of the precipitation occurs from March to May and 27 % from September to November • The area suffer from surface and underground water • Pastoralism is the main economic activity in the study area
  53. 53. Description of the Study area and the research Methodology Cont’ • There livelihood is climate sensitive • In Borana the frequency and magnitude of drought has been increasing over the last three decades • Drought and its attendant physical, biological and epidemiological adverse effects are responsible for substantial damage and loss to herders asset • Borana herders are vulnerable to climate change and variability. Because they have neither objective adaptive capacity nor subjective adaptive capacity
  54. 54. Description of the Study area and the research Cont’ • In this research mixed research method was used • Data was collected using questionnaire survey, focus group discussion, overt observation and interview • Various stakeholders such as Ethnobotanist, veterinarian, Borana indigenous weather forecasters (Uchu and Urgi Elaltus), community key informants, sample households and NMSA were source of data for this study
  55. 55. Indigenous weather forecast System • The idea and practice of indigenous weather forecasting is inbuilt in many cultures and has been established after long years of observation • Indigenous weather forecast is the main source of meteorological information for the Borana herders since time immemorial • The practical utilization of indigenous weather forecasting systems builds herders’ resiliency capacity to climatic shocks Their agricultural decisions, such as the timing of planting, rangeland management, herd composition and number, are highly interlinked with anticipated climate phenomenon
  56. 56. Indigenous weather forecast System In Borana weather forecast is made using Abiotic and Biotic Weather Forecast indicators • Celestial body readings • Intestinal reading • Plant body language readings • Animal body language readings In all forecasting systems there is no special ritual activity or any food or sexual restrictions
  57. 57. Astrological weather forecasting • Star-moon alignment (Lemi) • Geometrical alignment of celestial bodies (Bussan) • The apparent size of the stars (Kormi Mado) • Apparent movement of the star (Bekalcha…) Wind speed and direction Rainbow (Muna Garti) Type of cloud cover
  58. 58. Intestinal Reading • Large intestine (Kechuma) • Small intestine • Lump node (Kabello) • Blood vessel (vein)
  59. 59. Flower abundance and timing of Tedecha (acacia), Ret (Aloe) trees The activities of cattle, squirrel (Tuka), bees, ants, tones of hyena screaming and bird song
  60. 60. System of Disseminating weather Forecasts • The Borana herders forecast and share weather information using well organized cultural networks • The Urgi Elaltus and Uchus are in charge of forecasting weather and disseminating information, but do not have an obligation to do so and are not paid • The Urgi Elaltus and Uchus communicates weather information to community elders and heads of Geda who then disseminate it by summoning people for urgent meetings
  61. 61. System of Disseminating Climate Forecasts Cont’ • Alternatively, information is announced in market places, water points and village settlements • DAs and NGOs also disseminate the forecast information • Interested people can personally go to the houses of experts and ask for weather information so that their contacts can receive and transfer the same information
  62. 62. Responses to the weather forecasting Based on the disseminated forecast information the Borana herders take coping and adaptation measures such as: • Strengthening area enclosure through community bylaw • Saving water and grass • Preparing livestock medicine (traditional traditional and modern sources) • Storing hay • Sending scouts and migrating with animals to water and pasture abundant areas • Destocking • Reducing expenditure • Changing schedules of social and cultural festivities such as wedding
  63. 63. Credibility of Indigenous Weather Forecasting • The precision and credibility of all modes of traditional weather forecast steadily declining due to repeated faulty predictions • However, still there are Elaltus’ who commands high respect among the Borana herders (e.g. Kalicha Qoncher) • The number of Indigenous weather forecaster (experts) have decreased over time in their localities
  64. 64. Credibility of Indigenous Weather Forecasting Poor documentation Oral based knowledge transfer system Influence of religion and modern education Aging and premature death of Indigenous experts Expansion of alcoholism Changing behaviour and extinction of biotic indictors Identified as the major causes undermining the vitality of traditional climate forecast
  65. 65. Recommendation • Traditional wisdom could serve as a starting point to scientifically study the relationship between various signs and implied climate outcomes • Before traditional weather forecasting completely disappears, a remedial action should be carried out to prevent irreversible loss of intangible cultural heritage • Therefore, a systematic documentation of IK and integrating with instrumental forecasting can improve the accuracy and resilience of herders.
  66. 66. Thank You !
  67. 67. BUILDING A TEAM OF STAKEHOLDERS : MULTI-DISCIPLINARY APPROACH.  National Level :  National Weather Service (ANACIM)  Ministry of agriculture (DA)  Initiative Prospective Agriculture and Rural (IPAR)  Ecological Monitoring Center (CSE)  national agricultural research institute (ISRA)  National department of water resource management (DGPRE)  ENDA Energie  Local extension services and NGO in Kaffrine :  agricultural advisers and extension (ANCAR)  Service Départemental du développement Rural (SDDR),  NGO : Volunteers from Red Cross (CR), Africare (PRODIAK), World Vision (WV),  Farmers organizations :  National Farmers (Japandoo, CNCR, FONGS, … ), Individual farmers,  Organization of women producers (GPF), Peanuts-Seed producers Cooperation (CPSA)  Communication :  community and rural radio,  National TV, Private radios and TVs (Sud FM, Wal Fadjri, )
  68. 68. Building on local knowledge: High humidity and high temperatures can explain some of their indicators  “Stronger monsoon” Doing quite the same thing BUT Better observing system More reliable storage capacity (numbers, maps, computers, …) « When the wind change direction to fetch the rain » = Wind change from harmatan to monsoon during onset
  69. 69. • Field preparation : • Selecting the crop : • Planting : • Weeding : • Applying fertilizer, pesticide, … • Harvesting : • Storage : Finance Technology Heritage Sociology Habits Beliefs Environment Climate/weather DOCUMENTING FARMERS DECISION SYSTEM : WHAT DECISONS FARMERS are MAKING TO MANAGE THEIR CROPPING SYSTEM AND WHY ? WHAT WHY
  70. 70. Seasonal forecast  varieties Onset forecast  farm preparation Nowcasting  flooding saving life (thunder) Daily forecast  use of fertilizer / pesticide Ten-day forecast  weeding, field work Evaluation Lessons drawn Training workshop Indigenous knowledge Discussion and meetings Field Visits 10 days experts meeting : monitoring the season Ten-day forecast  optimum harvesting period Before During the Crop season Maturity/end
  71. 71. team work : farmers, climatologist, World Vision, Agriculture expert, sociologist
  72. 72. TALKING THE SAME LANGUAGE : “WHAT 1 MM OF RAIN MEANS”
  73. 73. Climateinformation Seasonal forecast Weather forecast Nowcasting Local working Group (Customize Climate information) Farmers Agriculture Livestock Local authority Extensions services Forestry Community radio Seed growers Rural radio Text messaging Social gatherings Bulletin LocalPluri-disciplinary WorkingGroup Community Pest Disease Control
  74. 74. Formal document establishing the GTP by local authority
  75. 75. Network of community radios used to disseminate climate inormation
  76. 76. First step : building trust (social dimension : using indigeneous knowledge) Giving not only useful BUT useable forecast (tailored for specific user needs in local language) Long term and multi-stakeholders partnership (each institution has part of the solution for food security) Communicating the forecast in easy to use term (easy to understand, can translate into action and to be evaluated) Dynamic process : need to better understand farmers decision system (farmers active participation : rain guage, indigenous knowledge, evaluation of forecast and activities …) WHAT DID WE LEARN
  77. 77. CONCLUSION OR CHALLENGES  Spatial scale of the forecast : down to farm  scaling-up other sites (government representative demand)  Offer Alternative : dry (bad news !) =>give them hope (climate insurance, alternative)  wet but there is no extra resources : so what ? SOLUTION :  Offering comprehensive whole package with varieties of partners (engage seed/fertilizer producers, bank, corporation, … ) ① Climate services (forecast + technology => advices) ② Climate insurance (dry/bad forecast + courage)

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