Reiner Wassaman (IRRI) Adapted rice crops for a 2030 world (presentation from Adaptation session at CCAFS Science Workshop, December 2010)

1. Adapted Rice Crops
for a 2030 World

2. The
Green
Revolu-on
in
Asia
1960s
• Yields
approx.
1.5
t/ha
• Famines
predicted,
slow
growth
Today
• Yields
approx.
4
t/ha
• Founda<on
for
economic
Modern
semi
–
Tradi-onal
rice:
more
growth
dwarf
variety:
grain
biomass
than
grain
not
biomass

3. Trends in Rice Prices

4. Climate Change Effects Relevant
for Rice Production

5. Sensitivity to Heat Stress
LOW HIGH MEDIUM
Grain
Pollination
Panicle filling
development
Leaf, tiller and root
development

6. Spikelet sterility induced by high
temperature at flowering
Temp. threshold
depends on
humidity (ca.
34-35ºC in humid
tropics).
Sterility
increases by 16%
with a 1ºC
increase above
Temp. threshold

8. Peng et al. 2004
18
17
16
15

9. Field experiment on nighttime temperature

10. Sea Level Trends/ Future
IPCC 2001
IPCC 2007

11. Mega-Deltas of Asia

12. New Sub1 lines after 17 days
submergence in field at IRRI
IR64-Sub1
Samba-Sub1 IR49830 (Sub1)
Samba IR64 Samba
IR42 IR42 IR49830 (Sub1)
IR64 IR49830 (Sub1) IR64
IR64-Sub1
Samba IR64-Sub1
Samba-Sub1
IR42
IR42
IR49830 (Sub1) IR64-Sub1
IR49830 (Sub1)
Samba
Samba-Sub1
IR64

13. Frequency of Tropical Cyclones
Typhoons
Hurricanes
Cyclones
Cyclones
UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library, 2005
<http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/tropical-cyclone-frequency>

14. Tropical Cyclones
and Climate Change
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(2007):
• As of now, ‘there is no clear trend in the annual
numbers of tropical cyclones’.
• Under ongoing global warming, however, ‘it is
likely that future tropical cyclones will become
more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and
more heavy precipitation…’.

15. Impact of Cyclone Nargis
in Myanmar (May 2008)
Before Nargis
After Nargis

16. Typhoon Effects in Philippines vs. Myanmar
Xangsane (Sep. 06)
> 150 km/h wind speed: 1022 km
Track over land
> 180 km/h wind speed: 365 km
Standing rice crop: 33,000 ha
Area affected
Salinity intrusion: ?
Nargis (May 08)
> 150 km/h wind speed: 348 km
Track over land
> 180 km/h wind speed: 55 km
Standing rice crop: 16,000 ha
Area affected
Salinity intrusion: 1,750,000 ha*
* http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2008/05/Burma_Cyclone_Nargis_Rice_Impact

19. Adaptation to Climate Change
Funded by Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

20. Diversity of rice gene
and rice growing
environments
Origin
Distribution

21. Conclusion
Adaptation:
Rice systems have
to become more
resilient
to…
• Drought
• Submergence
• Salinity
• Heat waves
Challenges of Adaptation =
Challenges in unfavorable environments