Vladimir Smakhtin Science Seminar 4 October 2013: Managing Extreme Water Variability
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Semelhante a Vladimir Smakhtin Science Seminar 4 October 2013: Managing Extreme Water Variability
Semelhante a Vladimir Smakhtin Science Seminar 4 October 2013: Managing Extreme Water Variability (20)
Mais de CCAFS | CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
Mais de CCAFS | CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (20)
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Vladimir Smakhtin Science Seminar 4 October 2013: Managing Extreme Water Variability
- 1. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world MANAGING WATER RESOURCES VARIABILITY FOR IMPROVED FOOD SECURITY AND LIVELIHOODS VLADIMIR SMAKHTIN Contributors: Giriraj Amarnath, Nishadi Eriyagama, Matthew McCartney, Paul Pavelic, Upamali Surangika International Water Management Institute (IWMI) CCAFS-WLE- IWMI Science Seminar, University of Copenhagen, 4 October 2013
- 2. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world …TOO MUCHTOO LITTLE… EVERYTHING IS VARIABLE, WATER - TOO
- 3. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world WATER VARIABILITY INCREASES WATER SCARCITY Source: Smakhtin and Schipper, 2008
- 4. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world Source: Brown and Lal (2006) WATER VARIABILITY INFLUENCES ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT A climate with moderate annual rainfall and its low variability favors prosperity
- 5. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world WATER VARIABILITY MANIFESTS ITSELF IN DROUGHT AND FLOOD DAMAGES Source -EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, Brussels Average annual characteristics over 1980-2008
- 6. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world IN MANY REGIONS OF THE WORLD, WATER RESOURCES VARIABILITY IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE WITH CLIMATE CHANGE
- 7. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world VARIABILITY MANAGEMENT MUST RECEIVE MUCH MORE SCIENCE, POLICY AND INVESTMENT ATTENTION • Better quantification of variability hot spots, risks and extent • Re-thinking water storage • Conjunctive management of floods and droughts in river basins through subsurface solutions (vs just surface ones)
- 8. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world AGRICULTURE; PAGE (2005) POPULATION CIESIN - 2010 FLOOD EXPOSED GDP WB, 2010 IDENTIFY AND QUANTIFY HOT SPOTS
- 9. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world QUANTIFY RISK AND EXTENT 2010 8-days maps of inundation extentGanges Basin Source: Amarnath et al, 2012
- 10. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world LACK OF WATER STORAGE ≈ FOOD INSECURITY Source: World Bank, 2006 Ethiopia
- 11. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world PROMOTE THE IDEA OF “WATER STORAGE CONTINUUM” Source: McCartney and Smakhtin 2010
- 12. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world BETTER PLAN WATER STORAGE DEVELOPMENT A need for water storage for livestock Source: Eriyagama et al. 2009 Proportion of water deficit in “mean” drought that can be satisfied by existing large dams’ storage Source: McCartney et al, 2013
- 13. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world CONJUNCTIVE FLOOD AND DROUGHT MANAGEMENT Current Climate – Dry Season
- 14. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world CONJUNCTIVE FLOOD AND DROUGHT MANAGEMENT Current Climate – Wet Season
- 15. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world CONJUNCTIVE FLOOD AND DROUGHT MANAGEMENT Future Climate - Wet Season
- 16. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world CONJUNCTIVE FLOOD AND DROUGHT MANAGEMENT Underground Taming of Floods for Irrigation (UTF-I); Wet season
- 17. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world CONJUNCTIVE FLOOD AND DROUGHT MANAGEMENT Underground Taming of Floods for Irrigation (UTF-I); Dry season
- 18. CONJUNCTIVE FLOOD AND DROUGHT MANAGEMENT UTF-I desktop case study: Chao Phraya basin, Thailand (Source: Pavelic et al, 2012) Land Use UTFI in plan viewAlluvium aquifers
- 19. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world CONJUNCTIVE FLOOD AND DROUGHT MANAGEMENT UTF-I desktop case study: Chao Phraya basin, Thailand (Source: Pavelic et al, 2012) • Harvest water only in very wet years - approximately 1 year in 4 • Around 200 km2 land dedicated to flood harvesting may be needed (< 1% of the total basin area) • Additional 65,000- 270,000 ha of irrigation possible • $150 mill / year - mean income to smallholder farmers • Cost of implementation < $ 1 Bill. Payback time can be 7 -14 years, depending on the efficiency of the scheme • Farmers’ participation is critical • No analogs so far exist
- 20. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world KEEPING VARIABILITY ? • Variability has positive effects too, e.g. the range of high and low flows, their proper timing and frequency is needed to ensure a healthy river • The challenge is to alleviate negative aspects of variability, while maintaining its positive side
- 21. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world 21 THANK YOU !
- 22. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world GANGES WATER MACHINE AND UTFI • Suitability for UTFI: – Prefeasibility analysis first – 12 indicator groups of suitability next – Potentially suitable are of 433,367 km2, where suitability is categorised from “low” to “very high”
Notas do Editor
- Could be either too much or too little. Can be in the same place/ basin. Temporal and spatial variability. In water management – spatial variability was dealt with by interbasin transfers, and temporal – by surface storage reservoirs
- More arid areas also often have more variable rainfall. Various types of water scarcity. Physical and economic water scarcity – access driven
- Compare with other aspects – to put into context.In 2012 terrorism killed over 11,000 people; road accidents – estimated 6 mill deaths in 2010. Affected people - Number of people living with HIV is around 33 millGlobal economic damage from natural disasters is close to 165 bill / a. This is more than current aid flow from developed to developing countries. And war in Iraq + Afghanistan cost around $100Bill annually over pst 10 years or so. The damage from floods and droughts may rise to over $450 bill by 2030, floods take lion share of this. 95% of all affected people by F and D are in Asia (Jonkman, 2005); F and D account for about 90% of people affected by all natural dissasters
- As a rule it increases. Rainfall – then river flow and recharge – so more challenges to water resources management. The impacts of global warming translates into variability, and in more extremes – more extreme and powerful floods, and more spatially extensive, longer and more frequent droughts. Anticipated reduction of variability may be a good news for a country, but such projections are quite rare
- We collated all information on catastrophic floods from several databases, and looked at 100 km grid cells over the world . Identified globally - 90 grid cells with catastrophic floods > 5, during 1900-2010Flood hotspots are areas that are highly flood prone having frequent flood events; causing several damages both in livelihood and infrastructure / crop lossPAGE? - Pilot Analysis of Global Ecosystems (PAGE)Giriraj, Amarnath; Ameer, Mohamed; Aggarwal, Pramod; Smakhtin, Vladimir. 2012. Detecting spatio-temporal changes in the extent of seasonal and annual flooding in South Asia using multi-resolution satellite data. In Civco, D. L.; Ehlers, M.; Habib, S.; Maltese, A.; Messinger, D.; Michel, U.; Nikolakopoulos, K. G.; Schulz, K. (Eds.). Earth resources and environmental remote sensing/GIS applications III: proceedings of the International Society for Optics and Photonics (SPIE), Vol.8538, Amsterdam, Netherland, 1-6 July 2012. Bellingham, WA, USA: International Society for Optics and Photonics (SPIE). 11p.
- Store water for the “non-rainy day”;Water storage is widely advocated as a key mechanism for climate change adaptation.Focus has been on large dams to date. Some countries slow down now on large dams development – USA. Others, like China, Ethiopia, Laos – continue or just starting to explore this option.
- Use of storage systems (“portfolios”) that combine different types is a more flexible approach than using just one optionNot just big dams, but what is the best combination of water storage types? Which ones we can afford, which ones are technologically feasible, which ones carry the least environmental damage,etc
- UTF-I (utify, unify, beautify)
- Scaling up this solution to SA and SEA; needs:Detailed design (should be as clear as the current design of surface reservoirs)Identification of areas in a larger region that are suitable for piloting (flood hot spots, hydrogeology, etc)Several pilot experiments Need to mention Ganges Machine and other Machines somewhere
- Finish on a positive note. Although we looked at variability as a culprit, it actually has very important positive connotations. – EF