Presentation by Sonja Vermeulen, Head of Research, CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) at University of Copenhagen, 13 June 2012. Visit www.ccafs.cgiar.org for more.

1. Climate Smart Agriculture Debate, Copenhagen, June 2012
A vision for climate smart
agriculture
Dr Sonja Vermeulen
Head of Research, CCAFS

2. The global
“trilemma”
of the
21st century…

3. 100% (+/- 11%) more food by 2050
with current
trajectories
of diets &
populations
Tilman et al 2011
PNAS

4. Climate change reducing crop
yields already
Lobell et al 2011
Science

5. Food
systems
contributes
19-29%
GHGs
Vermeulen et al. 2012
Annual Review of Environment and Resources (in press)

6. Food
security
Ecological
Adaptation
footprint

7. A vision for climate-smart
agriculture
1. Is it a good idea to make agriculture
climate-smart, and can it be done? Yes!
2. Is “climate-smart agriculture” enough?
Not on its own
3. Can we achieve a shared vision for
climate-smart agriculture? Yes!

8. GHG CO2-eq tonne
Food 25
per capita
Security 20
15
10
5
0
US Malawi
Adaptation Ecological
footprint
Climate-Smart Agriculture

9. CSA will differ significantly…
Impact of
climate change
on child
malnutrition
Costs of
adaptation
Indirect emissions
Direct emissions

10. Food security options

11. Food security comes via
better agriculture, however…
1. Yes, food security depends critically on food
production and productivity
2. But also depends critically on how production
translates into farmers’ incomes
3. Food security is more too (landless and urban
consumers’ incomes, rural-urban links, trade,
price control policies etc etc…)
4. Not just agriculture can change, but whole
cultures of food too (diets, women in formal
employment, ethical concerns etc etc…)

12. For food insecure people,
need actions on
Rights &
entitlements
Economic
Safety nets
opportunities
Food
availability
Access to Political
services voice

13. Adaptation options

14. Adaptive capacity
Technology
Income & assets Infrastructure
Knowledge &
Governance Access
skills
& to
institutions information
Social capital

15. Key adaptation strategies
Incremental adaptation to progressive
climate change
• Closing yield gaps (i.e. sustainable intensification)
• Raising the bar – technologies & policies for 2030s
Climate risk management
• Technologies (e.g. flood control)
• Institutions (e.g. index-based insurance)
• Climate information systems (e.g. seasonal forecasts)
Transformative adaptation
• Changing production systems
• Changing livelihood portfolios

16. Better risk management: e.g. Mali
farmer climate advisories
• Climate information to farmers for decision
making
• National Met Service, WMO, ACMAD
• Forecasts provided for three‐days, ten‐days,
and seasonal (inc. crop health...)
• Major increases in yields for participating
farmers
• Lessons learning and scaling up across
Sahel?

17. • The climate analogue Farms of
tool identifies the
range of places whose
the future
current climates
correspond to the
future of a chosen
locality
• Choice of sites for
cross-site farmer visits
and participatory crop
and livestock trials

18. To transformational adaptation?
 Relocation of growing areas &
processing facilities
 Agricultural diversification, or shifts
 Livelihood diversification, or shifts
 Migration

19. Mitigation options

20. Soil & land management
key to agricultural mitigation
Smith et al. 2007 IPCC

21. Technical strategies
1. “Sustainable intensification” in
low productivity systems
2. Sustainable land management
(SLM) practices
3. Alternate wetting and drying
systems in irrigated rice
4. Improved nitrogen use
efficiency
5. Increased intensity of ruminant
production in Africa to reduce
GHG++ per unit of product

22. Tackling deforestation
Indirect emissions

23. Food
Security
Adaptation Ecological
footprint
“Climate smart means landscape
and policy smart”

24. Institutional strategies
1. Improved forest governance &
land zoning
2. Land tenure security and
safeguarding local rights
3. Low carbon development
pathways for agriculture
4. “Shared but differentiated
responsibilities” in metrics &
access to finance
5. Services for smallholders

25. Are carbon markets a good
deal for farmers?
Claims:
US$4.8 billion global market (assuming $18/tonne)
US$1.5 billion in Sub-Saharan Africa
(almost twice the overseas development assistance for
agriculture in the region)
But:
-Weak market: $1.03/t
-Social justice issues:
distract from agricultural
development & adaptation needs
Analysis of Wollenberg 2011

26. Bringing it all together

27. A multitude of trade-offs……..
• Across sub-sectors (e.g. residues to soils or
livestock?)
• Across spatial scales (e.g. more productive
agriculture can result in forest clearance)
• Different kinds of households (e.g. some risk
insurance exclude female-headed households)
• Short-term vs. long term benefits (e.g.
livestock risk insurance can promote land
degradation)

28. CSA, in summary:
• Takes into account: food security, adaptation and
ecological footprint
• Foremost about development itself and address
smallholder concerns
• Adds new actions on climate to sustainable devpt
• Crucial to deal with trade-offs
• Context matters: CSA differs widely

29. But is CSA enough?
(to solve the “trilemma”)

30. No! Also need actions on (a) fair
access to food (b) reducing
waste & over-consumption
Commission on Sust Ag & Climate Change 2012
www.ccaf.cgiar.org/commission

31. Towards a shared vision for
climate smart agriculture?

32. CSA is fully compatible with organic
agriculture, conservation agriculture
and agro-ecological approaches

33. “Climate-smart agriculture”
is up for grabs:
claim this space!
For those who don’t like it, is the problem
climate-smart agriculture, or is it:
• Carbon markets?
• Technical limits to mitigation? (e.g. the real
potential to sequester soil carbon)
• Ignoring non-C benefits such as biodiversity?
• Just the wording or the politics?

34. Ocean Safe
Role of acidification Nitrogen operating
Agriculture cycle
space
Climate
change
Phosphorous
cycle
Current
Biodiversity status
loss
Global
freshwater
use
Change in land Rockström et al 2009;
use Bennett et al (in prep.)

35. 1. Continue with global
processes
• Ensure that agriculture and
food security are central to
UNFCCC processes &
agreements
• Put agriculture at the heart of
green growth and Rio+20
• Keep pressure on G20 to
increase focus on food Mexico 2012
security and climate smart
agriculture
Oxfam 2012

36. Thank you
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