The 2019 Budget and Economic Outlook

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The Congressional Budget Office director presented on the 2019 budget and economic outlook. Key points included: - Budget deficits are projected to grow steadily, with debt held by the public rising from 78% of GDP in 2019 to 95% by 2029. - The economy is projected to grow at around 2% annually through 2021 and then more slowly thereafter, constrained by demographic and labor force trends. - Under current laws, mandatory spending such as Social Security and Medicare will continue growing faster than the economy, driving rising budget deficits. - The tax cuts and jobs act of 2017 is estimated to increase deficits by $1.9 trillion from 2018 to 2028 after accounting for economic effects.

Governo e ONGs

Congressional Budget Office
Presentation at the University of Oregon
Lundquist College of Business, College of Arts and Sciences, and
Wayne Morse Center for Law and Politics
April 22, 2019
Keith Hall, Director
The 2019 Budget and Economic Outlook
This presentation draws on The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2019 to 2029 (January 2019), www.cbo.gov/publication/54918.

1
CBO
Values are adjusted to exclude the effects of shifts in the timing of payments that occur when October 1 (the first day of the fiscal year) falls on a weekend. Shaded vertical bars
indicate periods of recession.
Deficits

4
CBO
Growth is measured from the average of one calendar year to the next. GDP = gross domestic product.
Growth of Real GDP
Percent 2019 2020
Middle Two-Thirds of the Range of
Estimates From the January 2019 Blue Chip
Survey of Private-Sector Forecasters
2.4 – 2.8 1.5 – 2.3
CBO 2.7 1.9

5
CBO
Shaded vertical bars indicate periods of recession. GDP = gross domestic product.
Real GDP and Potential Real GDP

6
CBO
GDP = gross domestic product.
Factors Underlying the Growth of Potential GDP

7
CBO
Shaded vertical bars indicate periods of recession.
The Unemployment Rate and the Natural Rate of Unemployment

8
CBO
Shaded vertical bars indicate periods of recession. PCE = personal consumption expenditures.
Inflation

9
CBO
Shaded vertical bars indicate periods of recession.
Interest Rates

11
CBO
Values are adjusted to exclude the effects of shifts in the timing of payments that occur when October 1 (the first day of the fiscal year) falls on a weekend.
Deficits

12
CBO
Values are adjusted to exclude the effects of shifts in the timing of payments that occur when October 1 (the first day of the fiscal year) falls on a weekend.
Revenues and Outlays

13
CBO
Values are adjusted to exclude the effects of shifts in the timing of payments that occur when October 1 (the first day of the fiscal year) falls on a weekend.
Federal Outlays, by Category

14
CBO
Values are adjusted to exclude the effects of shifts in the timing of payments that occur when October 1 (the first day of the fiscal year) falls on a weekend.
Major Changes in Projected Outlays From 2019 to 2029

15
CBO
Values are adjusted to exclude the effects of shifts in the timing of payments that occur when October 1 (the first day of the fiscal year) falls on a weekend.
Outlays for People Age 65 or Older
as a Share of Total Noninterest Outlays

17
CBO
Other revenue sources consist of excise taxes, remittances from the Federal Reserve System, customs duties, estate and gift taxes, and miscellaneous fees and fines.
Revenues, by Major Source

19
CBO
If productivity growth turned out to be half a
percentage point higher from 2020 to 2029
than CBO projects, deficits would average
3.7 percent of GDP instead of 4.4 percent.
If interest rates on 10-year Treasury notes
were 3.0 percent (rather than averaging
3.7 percent as in CBO’s 10-year forecast),
deficits would average 4.0 percent of GDP
(instead of 4.4 percent).

20
CBO
On net, in CBO’s baseline, the 2017 tax act
increases the deficit by $1.9 trillion from 2018
to 2028, including debt-service costs.
That estimate includes the effects of economic
changes resulting from the act, which offset
 30 percent of the impact on the primary
deficit and
 20 percent of the total impact on the deficit
including debt-service costs.

21
CBO
Real bracket creep is the process in which, as income rises faster than inflation, an ever-larger proportion of income becomes subject to higher tax rates.
Growth in Individual Income Tax Receipts
in CBO’s Baseline Projections

23
CBO
Values are adjusted to exclude the effects of shifts in the timing of payments that occur when October 1 (the first day of the fiscal year) falls on a weekend.
Projected Deficits Under CBO’s Baseline
and an Alternative Fiscal Scenario

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1. Congressional Budget Office Presentation at the University of Oregon Lundquist College of Business, College of Arts and Sciences, and Wayne Morse Center for Law and Politics April 22, 2019 Keith Hall, Director The 2019 Budget and Economic Outlook This presentation draws on The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2019 to 2029 (January 2019), www.cbo.gov/publication/54918.

2. 1 CBO Values are adjusted to exclude the effects of shifts in the timing of payments that occur when October 1 (the first day of the fiscal year) falls on a weekend. Shaded vertical bars indicate periods of recession. Deficits

3. 2 CBO Debt Held by the Public

4. 3 CBO Economic Projections

5. 4 CBO Growth is measured from the average of one calendar year to the next. GDP = gross domestic product. Growth of Real GDP Percent 2019 2020 Middle Two-Thirds of the Range of Estimates From the January 2019 Blue Chip Survey of Private-Sector Forecasters 2.4 – 2.8 1.5 – 2.3 CBO 2.7 1.9

6. 5 CBO Shaded vertical bars indicate periods of recession. GDP = gross domestic product. Real GDP and Potential Real GDP

7. 6 CBO GDP = gross domestic product. Factors Underlying the Growth of Potential GDP

8. 7 CBO Shaded vertical bars indicate periods of recession. The Unemployment Rate and the Natural Rate of Unemployment

9. 8 CBO Shaded vertical bars indicate periods of recession. PCE = personal consumption expenditures. Inflation

10. 9 CBO Shaded vertical bars indicate periods of recession. Interest Rates

11. 10 CBO Budget Projections

12. 11 CBO Values are adjusted to exclude the effects of shifts in the timing of payments that occur when October 1 (the first day of the fiscal year) falls on a weekend. Deficits

13. 12 CBO Values are adjusted to exclude the effects of shifts in the timing of payments that occur when October 1 (the first day of the fiscal year) falls on a weekend. Revenues and Outlays

14. 13 CBO Values are adjusted to exclude the effects of shifts in the timing of payments that occur when October 1 (the first day of the fiscal year) falls on a weekend. Federal Outlays, by Category

15. 14 CBO Values are adjusted to exclude the effects of shifts in the timing of payments that occur when October 1 (the first day of the fiscal year) falls on a weekend. Major Changes in Projected Outlays From 2019 to 2029

16. 15 CBO Values are adjusted to exclude the effects of shifts in the timing of payments that occur when October 1 (the first day of the fiscal year) falls on a weekend. Outlays for People Age 65 or Older as a Share of Total Noninterest Outlays

17. 16 CBO Total Revenues

18. 17 CBO Other revenue sources consist of excise taxes, remittances from the Federal Reserve System, customs duties, estate and gift taxes, and miscellaneous fees and fines. Revenues, by Major Source

19. 18 CBO Debt Held by the Public

20. 19 CBO If productivity growth turned out to be half a percentage point higher from 2020 to 2029 than CBO projects, deficits would average 3.7 percent of GDP instead of 4.4 percent. If interest rates on 10-year Treasury notes were 3.0 percent (rather than averaging 3.7 percent as in CBO’s 10-year forecast), deficits would average 4.0 percent of GDP (instead of 4.4 percent).

21. 20 CBO On net, in CBO’s baseline, the 2017 tax act increases the deficit by $1.9 trillion from 2018 to 2028, including debt-service costs. That estimate includes the effects of economic changes resulting from the act, which offset  30 percent of the impact on the primary deficit and  20 percent of the total impact on the deficit including debt-service costs.

22. 21 CBO Real bracket creep is the process in which, as income rises faster than inflation, an ever-larger proportion of income becomes subject to higher tax rates. Growth in Individual Income Tax Receipts in CBO’s Baseline Projections

23. 22 CBO Projected Deficits, 2020 to 2029

24. 23 CBO Values are adjusted to exclude the effects of shifts in the timing of payments that occur when October 1 (the first day of the fiscal year) falls on a weekend. Projected Deficits Under CBO’s Baseline and an Alternative Fiscal Scenario

The 2019 Budget and Economic Outlook

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