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Congressional Budget Office
How CBO Promotes
Integrity in Its Analyses
Presentation at the
Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy,
University of Virginia
September 6, 2017
Keith Hall
Director

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The Congressional Budget Act of 1974

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The act created a formal process through
which the Congress could develop,
coordinate, and enforce its budgetary
priorities.
As part of that process, the act created the
House and Senate Budget Committees and
the Congressional Budget Office.

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The House and Senate Budget Committees
oversee the budget process, draft an annual
budget plan, and monitor action on the
budget.
CBO provides the budget committees and
the Congress with objective, impartial
information about budgetary and economic
issues.

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CBO’s Nonpartisanship

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CBO’s Director is appointed jointly by the
Speaker of the House and President Pro
Tempore of the Senate to a four-year term.
CBO has 235 employees—hired solely on
the basis of professional competence,
without regard to political affiliation. Most
have advanced degrees.

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CBO does not
 Make policy recommendations
 Write legislation
 Implement programs or regulations
 Enforce budget rules
 Evaluate the historical effectiveness
of government programs

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CBO’s Products

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CBO provides
 Baseline budget projections and
economic forecasts covering the
10-year period used in the
Congressional budget process
 Long-term budget projections
 Cost estimates for legislation,
including analyses of federal mandates
 Scorekeeping for enacted legislation

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And CBO also produces
 Analysis of the President’s budget
(including economic effects and their
budgetary feedback)
 Analytic reports about federal
programs, aspects of the tax code, and
budgetary and economic issues

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CBO’s Projections

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CBO’s budgetary and economic projections
focus on the next 10 years but sometimes
look 20 years ahead or more.
They are meant to reflect the middle of
the distribution of possible outcomes.

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The projections incorporate behavioral
responses to the extent feasible on the
basis of the available evidence.
They include explanations of the analysis
to the extent feasible.
They change periodically as a result of new
information.

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CBO’s Cost Estimates

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The cost estimates are objective budgetary
information that helps the Congress make
decisions about proposed legislation.
They show how enacting and
implementing a bill would affect federal
spending and receipts in comparison with
current law.
They cover a 5-year or 10-year budget
window.

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Formal cost estimates get rigorous review
and are signed by the Director. They are
generally prepared after a bill is ordered
reported by a full committee.
Informal cost estimates are generally
communicated from CBO’s staff to
Congressional staff and are not considered
official CBO estimates. They are
confidential only as long as proposals are
not made public.

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CBO’s cost estimates contain information
about
 Effects on the federal budget
 Effects on state, local, and tribal
governments (including mandates)
 Mandates imposed on the private
sector
 Macroeconomic feedback effects
(for major legislation, when
practicable)

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To keep the playing field level, CBO
 Releases publicly all formal cost
estimates and analytic reports
 Sends the material to the sponsor of
legislation or the requester of a
report, the Chairman and Ranking
Member of the committees of
jurisdiction, and the budget
committees
 Posts the work on its website at about
the same time

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CBO’s Analytic Reports

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Analytic reports go through rigorous
internal review by many people at
different levels in CBO.
The reports incorporate feedback, when
that is practical, from outside experts with
a broad range of views who specialize in
the issue at hand.

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CBO’s Transparency

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CBO aims to make its analysis transparent
in many ways, including
 Explaining the basis of and the
revisions to its major economic and
budget projections
 Describing the uncertainty of its
projections and quantifying that
uncertainty when appropriate
 Evaluating the projections
 CBO’s Revenue Forecasting Record
 CBO’s Economic Forecasting Record: 2015 Update

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A Panel of Economic Advisers improves
CBO’s understanding of economic
research, macroeconomic developments,
and economic policy.
A Panel of Health Advisers improves CBO’s
understanding of health research and of
developments in health care delivery and
financing.

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Members of CBO’s panels of advisers
 Are widely recognized experts on a
range of issues
 Have a variety of backgrounds, areas
of knowledge, and experience
 Join periodic meetings at CBO and
provide their views between
meetings via email and telephone