The State of the Community Report is an annual convening when Chamber President & CEO Aaron Nelson unveils the latest data tracking the well-being of Greater Chapel Hill and unpacks where we are leading and lagging.

1. 2018 State of the
Community Report

2. #CHCSOTC
Reagan Greene Pruitt
2018 Chamber Board Chair
2018 State of the Community Report

3. #CHCSOTC
Leadership Graduation Sponsor
Denny Marcin
Chamber Board of Directors
2018 State of the Community Report

4. #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
2018 Leadership Class President
Kate Kryder
Co-Curricular Leadership Development Program Coordinator
UNC-Chapel Hill

5. #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Bonnie
Hammersley
Orange County
Roger Stancil
Town of Chapel Hill
Data and Research Partners

6. Presenting Sponsor
Jessica Aylor
Interim CEO and Vice President of
Community Investment
2018 State of the Community Report

7. #CHCSOTC
Aaron Nelson
President and CEO Chapel Hill-Carrboro
Chamber of Commerce
2018 State of the Community Report

8. Presenting Sponsor

9. Program Sponsor

10. Breakfast Sponsor

11. Networking Sponsor
Medical practice that provides
comprehensive care for the whole person
in a non-judgmental environment.

12. Leadership Graduation Sponsor

13. Contributing Sponsors

14. #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Data Produced in Partnership with:

15. #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Official Data Research Partner

16. 11th Annual
State of the Community Report

17. #CHCSOTC
Preview
• Demography
• Migration
• Commuting
• Education
• Housing
• Wages
• Poverty
• Health
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

18. #CHCSOTC
A Few Things First…
• Percentage Point vs Percent (10% to 11%)
• Data Lag
• Adjusting for Inflation
• County Lines v zip codes v city limits
• 5 year averages
• The Quarter and the Ping Pong Paddle
2018 State of the Community Report

19. Lets Begin
Where am I
Add #

20. Orange County + Chatham County + Neighbors
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

21. Orange County
Total Value Per
Acre
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Source: Urban3

22. Source 2012-2016 American Community Survey
Orange County Land Distribution
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Chapel Hill 5% Carrboro 2%
Hillsborough 1%
Mebane
0.5%
Rest of
Orange
92%

23. Southern
Orange
County
Planning
Jurisdictions
Town of Chapel Hill
#CHCSOTC

24. Orange County 56,494 Housing Units Distribution Percentage
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Source 2012-2016 American Community Survey
Chapel Hill
36%
Carrboro
17%
Hillsborough
4%
Mebane
2%
Rest of
Orange
41%

25. Who am I?
Some Demography
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

26. Chapel Hill Second Highest in Nation with BA+
Percent of Residents 25+ with Bachelors degree or higher (2012-16)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Cambridge (MA), 74.9%
Chapel Hill, 74.6%
Carrboro, 69.1%
Orange County, 57.7%
Charlottesville (VA), 50.0%
Chatham County, 38.8%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Cambridge (MA)
Chapel Hill (NC)
Ann Arbor (MI)
Boulder (CO)
Berkeley (CA)
Carrboro (NC)
Evanston (IL)
Amherst (MA)
Sunnyvale (CA)
Corvallis (OR)
Orange County (NC)
Santa Clara (CA)
Bloomington (IN)
Fort Collins (CO)
Burlington (VT)
Charlottesville (VA)
Austin (TX)
Tallahassee (FL)
Boston (MA)
Gainesville (FL)
Athens-Clarke County (GA)
San Jose (CA)
Chatham County (NC)
Columbus (OH)
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

27. Orange Highest Per Capita Income in State (2016)
Source: 5-Year American Community Survey
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Orange
$37,103 Chatham
$35,109
North Carolina
$26,779
Scotland
$16,192
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
Orange
Wake
Chatham
Mecklenburg
Durham
Union
NewHanover
Dare
Moore
Carteret
Brunswick
Iredell
Currituck
Davie
Polk
Buncombe
Cabarrus
Forsyth
Guilford
NorthCarolina
Henderson
Haywood
Camden
Lincoln
Perquimans
Transylvania
Craven
Macon
Pamlico
Catawba
Nash
Pitt
Pender
Alamance
Beaufort
Gaston
Gates
Granville
Johnston
Cumberland
Davidson
Clay
Watauga
Onslow
Pasquotank
Wilson
Rowan
Franklin
Lee
Ashe
Madison
Chowan
Mitchell
Stanly
Person
Stokes
Jackson
Yadkin
Randolph
Wayne
Avery
Yancey
Surry
Rockingham
Harnett
Martin
Columbus
Alleghany
Burke
Lenoir
Cleveland
Caldwell
Alexander
Washington
Jones
Swain
Caswell
Wilkes
Halifax
Montgomery
Sampson
Rutherford
Warren
Bladen
Richmond
Cherokee
McDowell
Northampton
Graham
Hyde
Hoke
Vance
Greene
Edgecombe
Duplin
Hertford
Anson
Bertie
Tyrrell
Robeson
Scotland

28. 2016 Median Household Income
$65,299 $63,303
$54,255
$46,060
$76,173
$50,595
$57,617
Orange
County
Chatham
County
Durham
County
Alamance
County
Wake County North
Carolina
United States
Source: U.S. Census Bureau SAIPE

29. #CHCSOTC
Median Household Income 1998-2016 (Adjusted for
Inflation) $2016
$45,000
$50,000
$55,000
$60,000
$65,000
$70,000
$75,000
$80,000
$85,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Orange County Chatham County Durham County
Wake County North Carolina United States

30. #CHCSOTC
Median Household Income 1998-2016 (Adjusted for
Inflation) $2016
$65,299$61,796
$54,255
$45,000
$50,000
$55,000
$60,000
$65,000
$70,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Orange County Durham County

31. Orange County Shows Growth in Inflation Adjusted
Median Family Income (1998-2016)
Dollar Change in Median Household Income From 1998 to 2016 (adjusted for inflation) $2016
$3,161
($2,696)
($7,541)
($8,367)
($5,057)
($2,385)
$363
Orange County
Chatham County
Durham County
Alamance County
Wake County
North Carolina
United States

32. Orange County Shows Growth in Inflation Adjusted
Median Family Income (1998-2016)
Percent Change in Median Household Income From 1998 to 2016 (adjusted for inflation) Inflation Adjusted
5.1%
-4.1%
-12.2%
-15.4%
-6.2%
-4.5%
0.6%
Orange County
Chatham County
Durham County
Alamance County
Wake County
North Carolina
United States

33. Orange County Population by Race
Source: US Census Bureau; Orange County Planning
80% 76% 71% 69%
16%
14%
12% 11%
1%
4%
8% 9%
3% 4% 7% 8%
2% 3% 3%
1990 2000 2010 2017
White Black Hispanic Asian Other or Multiracial
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Changes By Decade

34. Orange Minority Population by Race
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
NOTE: Does not include American Indian or Other, as per earlier charts
14,847 16,643
12,336
11,823
3,232
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
1990 2000 2010 2017
Black Hispanic (any Race) Asian or Pacific Islander Multiracial
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

35. Chapel Hill Minority Population by Race
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Orange County Planning
4,840 5,460
3,638
1,678
6,786
1,282
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
1990 2000 2010
Black Hispanic (any Race) Asian or Pacific Islander Multiracial
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

36. Carrboro Minority Population by Race
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
NOTE: Does not include American Indian or Other, as per earlier charts
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Orange County Planning
1,916 1,933
2,706
1,592
430
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1990 2000 2010
Black Hispanic (any Race) Asian or Pacific Islander Multiracial

37. Growth History

38. Population Growth
Jurisdiction 2010 2017 Pop Growth Growth Rate
Orange County 133,688 144,946 11,258 8.4% (1.1% PY)
Hillsborough 6,613 7,231 618 7.9% (1.2% PY)
Carrboro 19,564 21,544 1,980 10.1% (1.3% PY)
Chapel Hill 57,221 59,862 2,641 4.6% (0.6% PY)
North Carolina 9,535,721 10,273,419 737,698 7.7% (1.0% PY)
Note: showing April 1, 2010 Estimates Base
Source U.S. Census Bureau
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

39. Orange County Population Growth Slowest Since 1960s
Numeric Growth By Decade, 1930-2010
Source U.S. Census Bureau
1,901
11,363
8,535
14,737
19,348
16,796
24,376
15,574
11,258
1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010-
2017
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

40. 9.0%
49.3%
24.8%
34.3% 33.5%
21.8%
26.0%
13.2%
8.4%
1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010-2017
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Source U.S. Census Bureau
Orange County Population Percentage Growth
Slowest Since 1930s
Percent Population Increase By Decade, 1930-2010

41. Chatham County Grew By 7,993 in First 8 Years of this Decade
Numeric Growth By Decade, 1930-2017
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
549 666
1,393
2,769
3,861
5,344
10,570
14,176
7,993
1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010-2017
549 666
1,393
2,769
3,861
5,344
10,570
14,176
7,993
1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010-2017

42. Source U.S. Census Bureau
2.3% 2.7%
5.5%
10.3%
13.1%
16.0%
27.3% 28.7%
1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
2000s Fastest Growth Decade for Chatham County
Percent Population Increase By Decade, 1930-2017
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
2.3% 2.7%
5.5%
10.3%
13.1%
16.0%
27.3%
28.7%
12.6%
1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010-2017

43. 7,993
11,193
11,258
41,656
171,144
Chatham County
Alamance County
Orange County
Durham County
Wake County
Population Gains Since 2010 Smallest in Chatham
Numeric Population Growth, April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2017
#CHCSOTC
Source U.S. Census Bureau
2018 State of the Community Report

44. Migration Drove County Population Growth 2010 - 2017
Components of Orange County's estimated 11,258 person growth, 2010- 2017
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Note: Not shown is the estimated loss of 2 individuals that cannot be attributed to births, deaths, or migration (residual)
Source U.S. Census Bureau
11,258
8,872
-5,565
2,802
5,159
Total Change Births Deaths Domestic Migration
International
Migration

45. #CHCSOTC
Dr. Rebecca Tippett
2018 State of the Community Report

46. Migration
With Dr. Rebecca Tippett, Carolina Demography

47. -20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
NumberofPeople
AgeSource: Winkler et al., 2013
NC Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

48. -20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
NumberofPeople
Age
NC Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010
Source: Winkler et al., 2013
No Net Migration
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

49. -20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
NumberofPeople
Age
NC Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010
Net Out Migration
Source: Winkler et al., 2013
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

50. -20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
NumberofPeople
Age
NC Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010
Net In Migration
Source: Winkler et al., 2013
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

51. -20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
NumberofPeople
Age
NC Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010
Source: Winkler et al., 2013
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

52. -10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
NumberofPeople
Age
Orange
Net Migration by Age, 2000 - 2010
Source: Winkler et al., 2013
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

53. -10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
NumberofPeople
Age
Orange
Pitt
Watauga
Net Migration by Age, 2000 - 2010
Source: Winkler et al., 2013
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

54. -1,400
-1,200
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
NumberofPeople
Age
Youth Drain
Halifax
Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010
Source: Winkler et al., 2013
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

55. 0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
NumberofPeople
Age
Employment Center
Wake
Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010
Source: Winkler et al., 2013
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

56. 0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
NumberofPeople
Age
Family Suburbs
Johnston
Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010
Source: Winkler et al., 2013
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

57. -1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
NumberofPeople
Age
Chatham Moore
Retiree Destinations
Chatham & Moore
Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010
Source: Winkler et al., 2013
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

58. -10,000
-8,000
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
NumberofPeople
Age
Orange
Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010
Source: Winkler et al., 2013
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

59. -8,000
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
NumberofPeople
Age
White
Black
Other
Hispanic
Net Migration by Age and Race, 2000-2010
Source: Winkler et al., 2013
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

60. -1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
NumberofPeople
Age
Black
Other
Hispanic
Net Migration by Age and Race, 2000-2010
Source: Winkler et al., 2013
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

61. Population Projecting

62. Three Population Projection Models – Annual Change
20-Year Exponential, 20-Year Linear, 10-Year Linear
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Geography
Exponential
(1990-2010)
Linear
(1990-2010)
Linear
(2010-2017)
Orange 1.8% 1,553 people 1,999 people
Chatham 2.5% 1,237people 1,102people
Carrboro 2.4% 372 people 273 people
Chapel Hill 2.0% 926people 364people
Hillsborough 1.8% 91 people 85people

63. How many people in 2050? Orange County
3 Population Projection Models
Source: Carolina Demography, Orange County Planning
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
271,957
213,701
133,801
195,914
0
75,000
150,000
225,000
300,000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Exponential (1990-2010) Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2017)

64. How many people in 2050? Chapel Hill
3 Population Projection Models
Source: Carolina Demography, Orange County Planning
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
125,104
94,277
2010-2017
57,233
71,804
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Exponential (1990-2010) Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2017)

65. How many people in 2050? Carrboro
3 Population Projection Models
Source: Carolina Demography, Orange County Planning
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
50,999
34,478
19,582
30,506
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Exponential (1990-2010) Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2017)

66. How many people in 2050? Chatham County
3 Population Projection Models
Source: Carolina Demography, Orange County Planning
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
170,482
112,997
107,604
0
75,000
150,000
225,000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Exponential (1990-2010) Linear (1990-2010) Linear (2010-2017)

67. Carrboro Remains One of the Most Densely Populated
Communities in NC
People per square mile by census and using ‘Linear 1990-2010’ projections
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Orange County Planning
2,970
3,437
3,754
3,108
3,586
4,158
1980 Census 1990 Census 2000 Census 2010 Census 2020 Projected 2030 Projected
2,970
3,437
3,754
3,031
3,608
4,184
1980 Census 1990 Census 2000 Census 2010 Census 2020 Projected 2030 Projected
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

68. Chapel Hill Population Density To Increase
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Orange County Planning
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
2,583
2,342 2,330
2,710
3,148
3,587
1980 Census 1990 Census 2000 Census 2010 Census 2020 Projected 2030 Projected
People per square mile by census and using ‘Linear 1990-2010’ projections

69. 4,246
4,116
4,094
3,948
3,472
3,108
3,037
2,710
3,587
Charlottesville (VA)
Burlington (VT)
Ann Arbor (MI)
Boulder (CO)
Bloomington (IN)
Carrboro (NC)
Madison (WI)
Chapel Hill (NC)
Chapel Hill 2030
Chapel Hill in 2030 is Less Dense than Most Peers
People Per Square Mile
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Orange County Planning
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

70. Its time to get up and go to work

71. Orange Worker Inflows/Outflows, 2015
43,036 drive in, 35,818 drive out, and 20,406 live and work in Orange
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

72. 61% of Orange County Households Have 2+ Cars
Share of Households by Number of Vehicles Available, 2012-16
Source: 2012-16 American Community Survey
No Vehicles
5%
1 Vehicle
34%
2 Vehicles
38%
3 or More
Vehicles
23%
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

73. Fewer Orange, Chatham Workers Drive Alone to Work
Percent of commuters who drive alone to work, 2012-16
Source: Vehicle Availability and Commuting, 2012-16 American Community Survey
81%
67%
78%
84%
76% 79%
North Carolina Orange Chatham Alamance Durham Wake
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

74. Chapel Hill Transit Ridership Down
Total Chapel Hill Transit Ridership (in millions), FY2004-FY2017
5.27
7.23
6.94
6.73
6.33 6.18
4.0
6.0
8.0
FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
(millions)
Source: Chapel Hill Transit
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

75. 0.71 0.75 0.82 0.87 0.94
1.14 1.09
1.29
1.58
1.77 1.82 1.84 1.78
1.66
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
GoTriangle Ridership Declines 10% from 2015 Peak
Total Triangle Transit Ridership, FY2004-FY2017
Source: Triangle Transit
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

76. High Share of Orange, Chatham Workers Work from Home
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
4.8%
8.2%
7.8%
2.7%
4.8%
7.6%
North Carolina Orange Chatham Alamance Durham Wake

77. 52,698
63,442
48,702
56,224
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Jobs in Orange Workers in Orange
County Job Growth has not Consistently Translated to More
Workers Living in Orange
Number of jobs in Orange vs. workers in Orange, 2002-2015
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

78. While Most Orange County Residents Work Elsewhere,
Percent Driving Out for Work is Declining from Peak
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
55%
66%
64%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Share of Orange County resident workers who work outside of Orange County, 2002-2015

79. Younger Workers

80. Young Workers Living and Working in Orange Increasing
Number living and working in Orange County, 29 or younger, highest since 2011
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
4,567
3,625 3,751
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

81. Fewer Workers Under 29 Commuting Out of Orange
Number of young workers commuting out of Orange County declining
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
7,889
7,495
6,956
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
8,000
8,500
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

82. Total People 29 or Younger Working Orange County
Increasing (2012 – 2015)
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
12,199
12,975
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,500
13,000
13,500
14,000
14,500
15,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: U.S. Census Bureau

83. New Young Workers Driving Into Orange for Work Increasing
2009 through 2015
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
8,966
9,224
8,500
8,600
8,700
8,800
8,900
9,000
9,100
9,200
9,300
9,400
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

84. Who Works Where

85. 14,228
12,088
4,662
1909
1635
1596
1324
1297
1037
683
15,765
Chapel Hill town, NC
Durham city, NC
Raleigh city, NC
Hillsborough town, NC
Carrboro town, NC
Cary town, NC
Greensboro city, NC
Charlotte city, NC
Burlington city, NC
Mebane city, NC
All Other Locations
Where Do Orange County Residents Work?
Location of Primary Job, 2015
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

86. Where Orange County Residents Work is Changing
Location of Primary Job, 2005-2015
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
-2,383
1,141
1,971
259
97
609
298
228
266
14 3,509
Chapel Hill town, NC
Durham city, NC
Raleigh city, NC
Hillsborough town, NC
Carrboro town, NC
Cary town, NC
Greensboro city, NC
Charlotte city, NC
Burlington city, NC
Mebane city, NC
All Other Locations

87. Chapel Hill Worker Inflows/Outflows, 2015
38,804 drive in, 18,697 drive out, and 11,106 live and work in Chapel Hill/Carrboro
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

88. Carrboro Worker Inflows/Outflows, 2015
3,623 drive in, 8,524 drive out, and 645 live and work in Carrboro
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

89. Chatham Worker Inflows/Outflows, 2015
8,997 drive in, 20,551 drive out, and 5,124 live and Work in Chatham
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

90. 46% of Chatham Workers Driving Alone Travel 30+ Minutes
Percent of those who drive alone to work commuting 30+ minutes, 2012-16
Source: Vehicle Availability and Commuting, 2012-16 American Community Survey
31% 29%
46%
31%
24%
33%
North Carolina Orange Chatham Alamance Durham Wake
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

91. Majority of Chatham Residents Work Elsewhere
Share of Chatham County resident workers who work outside of Chatham, 2002-2015
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
65%
81%
80%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

92. Now time to work
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

93. We begin with employment

94. Monthly Unemployment Rate (Unadjusted)
1/2004 to 4/2018
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14% 1/2004
7/2004
1/2005
7/2005
1/2006
7/2006
1/2007
7/2007
1/2008
7/2008
1/2009
7/2009
1/2010
7/2010
1/2011
7/2011
1/2012
7/2012
1/2013
7/2013
1/2014
7/2014
1/2015
7/2015
1/2016
7/2016
1/2017
7/2017
1/2018
North Carolina Orange County Chapel Hill Chatham County
Source: BLS LAUS

95. Annual Unemployment Rate (Unadjusted)
Unemployment Rate, 1997-2017
Source: NC Department of Commerce
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
10.9%
6.6%
Orange
3.8%
6.6%
Chapel Hill,
4.6%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
UnemploymentRate
North Carolina Orange County Chapel Hill Chatham County
Source: BLS LAUS

96. Number of Unemployed Persons, 2017
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
1,379 1,365
2,921
Chapel Hill Chatham County Orange County

97. Orange County Employment Patterns
Orange Top 5 Specialized Industries, by Employment, 2016 (NACO)
Source: National Association of Counties
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
41,300 jobs |
44.6%
6,700 jobs |
7.2%
5,400 jobs |
5.8%
2,000 jobs |
2.1%
170 jobs | 0.2%
State & Local
Government
Food & Hospitality
Professional &
Business Services
Educational
Services
Mining

98. Minority Business Ownership Rates
Orange County & Municipalities Fall Below U.S. and Statewide Averages
10.3%
11.8%
13.5%
13.7%
14.0%
14.9%
15.2%
20.5%
20.8%
21.1%
22.8%
26.3%
28.8%
36.7%
Bloomington (IN)
Chatham County (NC)
Madison (WI)
Chapel Hill (NC)
Orange County (NC)
Ann Arbor (MI)
Carrboro (NC)
Johnston County (NC)
Alamance County (NC)
Hillsborough (NC)
North Carolina
Wake County (NC)
United States
Durham County (NC)
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

99. Higher share of women-owned firms in unincorporated Orange County
#CHCSOTC 2017 State of the Community Report
30.2%
31.2%
32.2%
32.4%
34.2%
34.6%
35.4%
35.5%
35.6%
35.6%
35.8%
35.9%
36.3%
41.7%
Bloomington (IN)
Hillsborough (NC)
Johnston County (NC)
Ann Arbor (MI)
Chapel Hill (NC)
Alamance County (NC)
Madison (WI)
Chatham County (NC)
North Carolina
Wake County (NC)
United States
Carrboro (NC)
Orange County (NC)
Durham County (NC)
Female Business Ownership Rates

100. Total Non-Profit Employment
Nonprofit Employee County by County (2015)
29,808
1,681
42,373
Orange Chatham Durham
Source Center for Nonprofits
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

101. 47% of Orange County workers employed in Nonprofit
Nonprofit employment as percent of total employment, 2015
47%
12%
23%
Orange Chatham Durham
Source: Center for Nonprofits
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

102. Orange County Major Employers 2017 Q4
1. UNC Chapel Hill
2. UNC Health Care System
3. Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools
4. Orange County Schools
5. UNC Physicians Network LLC, Education
& Health Services
6. Local Government
7. Town Of Chapel Hill Inc
8. Eurosport
9. General Electric Company
10. Aramark Food And Support Services G.
11. Wal-Mart Associates Inc.
12. Harris Teeter
Source: NC Department of Commerce
13. A K G Of America Inc.
14. Food Lion
15. The Chapel Hill Residential
16. United Parcel Service Inc.
17. P H E Inc.
18. Summit Consulting-Engineering
19. Weaver Street Market
20. Performance BMW
21. Wellspring Grocery
22. Residential Services Inc.
23. U S Postal Service
24. Carolina Inn
25. The Arc Of The Triangle
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

103. Sales and Economy

104. Taxable Sales Grows to $1.76 Billion
Orange County Taxable Sales (in millions), FY06 - FY18
Source: NC Department of Revenue
*Change in reporting
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
$908 $948 $972 $927 $988 $1,017 $1,058
$1,176
$1,422 $1,477
$1,568
$1,726 $1,766
2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15* 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18

105. Annual Growth of Orange County Taxable Sales
Change (in millions) from Taxable Sales of Prior Year FY05-FY18
Source: NC Department of Revenue
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
$41 $23
-$45
$61
$30 $41
$117
$246
$55
$91
$158
$40
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300

106. Orange County Percent Change of Taxable Sales of Prior Year
FY05-FY18
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
4%
2%
-5%
7%
3% 4%
11%
21%
4%
6%
10%
2%

107. Sales Tax Collections Grow to $84 Million
Orange County Gross Sales Tax Collections (in millions), FY06-FY18
Source: NC Department of Revenue
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
$41 $42 $42 $41
$52
$59
$52
$56
$68 $70
$75
$82 $84

108. Distribution of $56 Million in Orange County Sales Tax Distributions
Municipality share of Orange County Local Option Sales Tax (LOST) Revenue Distributions, FY 2016-17
Source: NC Department of Revenue
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
$37 million
$4.5 million
$12.3 million
$6,759 $1.4 million $441,692
Orange County
Total
Carrboro Chapel Hill Durham Hillsborough Mebane

109. Chapel Hill & Carrboro Receive 30% of Orange County Sales Tax
Distributions )
Municipality share of Orange County Local Option Sales Tax (LOST) Revenue Distributions, FY 2016-17
Source: NC Department of Revenue
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
67%
8%
22%
0.01% 3% 1%
Orange County
Total
Carrboro Chapel Hill Durham Hillsborough Mebane
2017-18 County Tax Disbursements

110. Sales Tax Per Capita FY2016 and FY2017
Source: NC Department of Revenue
$175
$157
$251
$172
$154
$177 $177
$255
$182
$156
Alamance Chatham Durham Orange Wake
2016 2017
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

111. Sales Tax Per Capita Rankings
Ranking of 100 NC Counties (1=highest), 2013-2017
Source: NC Department of Revenue
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
81
31
48
55
9
0
20
40
60
80
100
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
CountyRanking(1to100)
Orange Chatham Durham

112. Total Household Income (billions)
2017 Inflation Adjusted Dollars
Source: ESRI via NC Department of Commerce
$3.99
$2.75
$9.86
$4.86
Alamance
Chatham
Durham
Orange
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

113. Average Household Retail Demand
2016
$51,358
$32,097
$44,329
$38,192
$48,176
Orange County
Alamance County
Chatham County
Durham County
Wake County
Source: ESRI via NC Department of Commerce
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

114. Number of Households (2016)
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
64,369
28,568
123,697
50,203
Alamance County
Chatham County
Durham County
Orange County

115. $2.1 $1.3
$4.7
$2.6
$18.7
Alamance Chatham Durham Orange Wake
Retail Demand 2016 in Billions (revised)
Source: ESRI via NC Department of Commerce
Values shown in billions
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

116. The Retail Gap
#CHCSOTC 2017 State of the Community Report

117. Orange Had Largest Retail Gap in 2016 (revised)
Retail Potential vs. Retail Sales (in billions), 2016
Source: ESRI via NC Department of Commerce
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
$2.1
$1.3
$4.7
$2.6
$1.8
$0.6
$4.6
$1.8
Alamance Chatham Durham Orange
Total Retail Potential Total Sales

118. Orange Had Largest Retail Gap in 2016
Retail Gap– Demand Minus Supply (in Millions), 2016 revised
Source: ESRI via NC Department of Commerce
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
$269
$648
$81
$796
$623
Alamance Chatham Durham Orange Wake

119. #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Retail Leakage occurs when local people spend a
larger amount of money on goods than local
businesses report in sales, usually due to people
traveling to a neighboring town to buy goods.

120. Orange County Draws Outside Dollars in 4 Categories
2016 Retail Leakage (in Millions)
Source: ESRI via NC Department of Commerce
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
$85.7
$49.5
$13.9
$0.2
-$28.3
-$30.7
-$45.4
-$47.1
-$50.9
-$52.7
-$87.8
-$280.8
-$321.9
Nonstore Retailers
Sports/Hobby/Book/Music Stores
Gasoline Stations
Miscellaneous Store Retailers
Furniture/Home Furnishing Stores
Food Services & Drinking Places
Bldg/Garden Equip/Supply Stores
Health and Personal Care Stores
Electronics & Appliance Stores
Clothing/Accessories Stores
Food and Beverage Stores
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers
General Merchandise Stores

121. Chatham County Draws Outside Dollars in 1 Category
2016 Retail Leakage (in Millions)
Source: ESRI via NC Department of Commerce
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
$10.7
-$9.9
-$20.3
-$21.6
-$23.0
-$29.5
-$40.8
-$41.0
-$41.3
-$41.8
-$73.3
-$99.1
-$217.4
Sports/Hobby/Book/Music Stores
Gasoline Stations
Furniture/Home Furnishing Stores
Nonstore Retailers
Bldg/Garden Equip/Supply Stores
Health and Personal Care Stores
Clothing/Accessories Stores
Electronics & Appliance Stores
Food Services & Drinking Places
Miscellaneous Store Retailers
Food and Beverage Stores
General Merchandise Stores
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers

122. Public Schools

123. Total Per Pupil Expenditure (2016-17)
Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
$8,588
$8,742
$10,180
$10,641
$11,012
$11,601
$12,017
Alamance-Burlington Schools
Wake County Schools
Chatham County Schools
Durham County Schools
Orange County Schools
Asheville City Schools
Chapel Hill/Carrboro City Schools
2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC

124. Local Per Pupil Expenditure (2016-17)
Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
$1,826
$2,537
$3,463
$3,556
$4,281
$4,880
$6,151
Alamance-Burlington Schools
Wake County Schools
Chatham County Schools
Durham County Schools
Orange County Schools
Asheville City Schools
Chapel Hill/Carrboro City Schools
2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC

125. Average SAT Evidence Based Reading and Writing (ERW)
Score 2017
Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC
568
573
621
522
539
520
542
Wake County Schools
Orange County Schools
Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools
Durham Public Schools
Chatham County Schools
Alamance-Burlington Schools
North Carolina (All Students)

126. Average SAT Math Score 2017
Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
562
559
611
505
524
521
532
Wake County Schools
Orange County Schools
Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools
Durham Public Schools
Chatham County Schools
Alamance-Burlington Schools
North Carolina (All Students)
2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC

127. Average SAT Total Scores 2017
Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
1,130
1,133 1,231
1,027
1,063
1,041
1,074
Wake County Schools
Orange County Schools
Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools
Durham Public Schools
Chatham County Schools
Alamance-Burlington Schools
North Carolina (All Students)
2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC

128. EOG Math Grade 3, 2016-17
College and Career Ready (Level 4 or 5)
Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC
60%
50%
70%
38%
58%
47%
52%
Wake County Schools Orange County
Schools
Chapel Hill-Carrboro
City Schools
Durham Public
Schools
Chatham County
Schools
Alamance-Burlington
Schools
North Carolina (All
Students)

129. EOG Math Grade 8, 2015-16
College and Career Ready (Level 4 or 5)
Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
48% 48%
66%
28%
45%
38% 40%
Wake County
Schools
Orange County
Schools
Chapel Hill-Carrboro
City Schools
Durham Public
Schools
Chatham County
Schools
Alamance-Burlington
Schools
North Carolina (All
Students)
2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC

130. EOG Reading Grade 8, 2016-17
Grade Level Proficient (Level 3+)
Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC
63%
55%
72%
41%
57%
47%
54%
Wake County Schools Orange County
Schools
Chapel Hill-Carrboro
City Schools
Durham Public
Schools
Chatham County
Schools
Alamance-Burlington
Schools
North Carolina (All
Students)

131. EOG Reading Grade 3, 2016-17
Grade Level Proficient (Level 3+)
Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
67%
56%
74%
45%
60%
53%
58%
Wake County Schools Orange County
Schools
Chapel Hill-Carrboro
City Schools
Durham Public
Schools
Chatham County
Schools
Alamance-Burlington
Schools
North Carolina (All
Students)
2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC

132. Local School Dropout Rate Declines
2000 through 2017
Source: NC DPI
1.9%
CHCCS
0.8%
5.2%
Orange
2.0%
5.7% NC
2.3%
CHCCS Orange NC
2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC

133. Graduation Rates in Neighboring Districts Nearly
Equal to CHCCS
Share of 9th Grade Cohort that Graduated in 4 Years, by Graduation Year
Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC
CHCCS
90%
90%
Orange
67%
89%
Chatham
67%
88%
NC
68% 87%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Year of Graduation
CHCCS Orange Chatham NC

134. But there are challenges to
address
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

135. Grades 3-8 Math EOG "College and Career Ready", 2017
Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
28%
23% 26% 23%
28% 26% 30%
60% 56%
65%
72%
66%
83%
74%
NC Alamance Chatham Durham Orange CHCCS Wake
Black White
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

136. And Some Areas of
Improvement
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

137. CHCCS EOG Reading Grade 3 Proficient
2015-2016 vs. 2016-2017 Grade 3 Proficient (Level 3+)
Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
80
47
39
92
77
55
43
89
Asian Black Hispanic White
2016 2017
2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC

138. Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools Subgroups
Grade 3 Reading EOG "Grade Level Proficient"
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
44
52 49
26
52
56 58
36
Black Hispanic EDS SWD
2016 2017

139. Orange County Schools EOG Reading Grade 3 Proficient
2015-16 vs. 2016-2017 Grade 3 Proficient (Level 3+)
Source: NC Department of Public Instruction
44
34
71
35
29
74
Black Hispanic White
2016 2017
2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC

140. Chatham County Schools EOG Reading Grade 3 Proficient
2015-16 vs. 2016-17 Grade 3 Proficient (Level 3+)
39 36
72
35
42
78
Black Hispanic White
2016 2017
2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC

141. CHCCS EOG Reading Grade 3 "Grade Level Proficient"
2014-2017
79.1 77.4
34
54.5
43.6 42.8
91.5 88.5
0
20
40
60
80
100
2014 2015 2016 2017
Asian Black Hispanic White
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

142. CHCCS EOG Reading Grade 3 "Grade Level Proficient“
2014-2017
34
54.5
43.6 42.8
2014 2015 2016 2017
Black Hispanic
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

143. Orange County Schools Percentage Point "Gap" between
White and Black Student Performance
Grade 3 EOG Reading "Grade Level Proficiency" Scores
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
27.1
29.8
27.4
39.1
2014 2015 2016 2017

144. Chatham County Schools Percentage Point "Gap" between
White and Black Student Performance
Grade 3 EOG Reading "Grade Level Proficiency" Scores
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
37.7
29.2
33.1
42.8
2014 2015 2016 2017

145. CHCCS Percentage Point "Gap" between White and Black
Student Performance
Grade 3 EOG Reading "Grade Level Proficiency" Scores
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
57.5
37.4
44.9
34
2014 2015 2016 2017

146. Durham Tech
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

147. Continuing Education Offered and Total Seats Used
Durham Tech Orange County Campus, 2011-12 through 2017-18
Source: Durham Tech
269 245 215 188 213 204 237
4,063
3,623
3,087
2,686
3,071 3,274
3,686
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018
Classes Offered Total Seats Used
2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC

148. 49%
of CHCCS or OCS graduates
received financial aid from
Durham Tech (2013-2018)
Source: Durham Tech
2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC

149. Durham Tech Licensure Pass Rates and Transfer Performance
2017
Source: Durham Tech
84.50%
97%
76%
95% 100% 94%
Transfer
Performance
(2015-2016)
Practical
Nursing
Registered
Nursing
EMT EMT-P Esthetician
2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC

150. University of North Carolina
at Chapel Hill

151. State Appropriations to UNC Chapel Hill
Source: OIRA
$500 million
$543 million
in 2008
$107,782,727$
108 million$0
$100,000,000
$200,000,000
$300,000,000
$400,000,000
$500,000,000
$600,000,000
1980 - 2017
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

152. UNC Chapel Hill Revenues Rise, State Appropriations Flat
Source: OIRA
$3.2 billion
$500 million
$0
$500,000,000
$1,000,000,000
$1,500,000,000
$2,000,000,000
$2,500,000,000
$3,000,000,000
$3,500,000,000
Revenues Appropriations
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

153. UNC milestones
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

154. UNC Chapel Hill Campus Grows Past 20 Million square feet
Gross Square Feet of UNC Chapel Hill Campus
Source: OIRA
20.1 million17.8 million
in 2008
7.8 million
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

155. UNC Chapel Hill Student Population Nearing 30,000
Number of Students Enrolled at UNC, 1980-2017
29,911
28,567 in 2008
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2017201520132011200920072005200320011999199719951993199119891987198519831981
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

156. UNC Annual Research Funding nears $900 million
Source: UNC Office of Institutional Research
$898 million
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
Millions
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

157. Housing

158. Homes Sold in 2017 Decline From 2016 Peak
Number of single and multifamily home sales, 2007 through 2017
Source: Triangle MLS
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
1,751
1,815
1782
1,008 1,037
1323
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Orange Chatham

159. New Construction as a Percent of Total Sales
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
11%
40%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Orange Chatham

160. 1986median year house built in Orange County
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

161. 2003median year Orange County
homeowner moved into unit
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
vs. 2012 for renters
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

162. Steady Growth in Regional Home Prices
Median residential closing price, 2007-2017
Orange
Chatham
Chatham
Orange
Source: Triangle MLS
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
$282,500 $277,700
Chatham
$369,000
$260,000 $265,000
Orange
$316,245
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Chatham Orange

163. Price in Chatham Exceeds All Others
2017 Median Residential Closing Price
Source: Triangle MLS
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
$230,750
$285,000
$369,000
$316,245
$360,000

164. Price in Chatham Exceeds All Others
2017 Median Residential Closing Price
Source: Triangle MLS
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
$230,750
$285,000
$369,000
$316,245
$360,000
Durham Wake Chatham Orange CHCCS District

165. $123
$144 $149 $151
$166
Durham Wake Chatham Orange CHCCS District
Price Per Square Foot
Median Price Per Square Foot, 2017
Source: Triangle MLS
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

166. Change in Median Home Sale Price 2017 vs 2015
2017 vs. 2015
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
20%
14%
10%
9%
6%
Durham
Wake
Chatham
Orange
CHCCS District

167. 38% of Homes in CHCCS District and 47% of All
Orange County Homes Sold for <$300K
2016 Orange County home sales by price
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
25%
21%
28%
22%
17%
26%
18%
19%
14%
21%
25%
14%
13%
18%
18%
Orange County (All)
(1,782 Sales)
CHCCS District
(1,049 Sales)
Not CHCCS
(686 Sales)
<$200,000 $200,000-$299,999 $300,000-$399,999
$400,000-$600,000 $600,000 or more
Source: Triangle MLS

168. 2017 Orange County Homes Sales by Price
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
454
224
230
395
178
217
316
197
119
378
258
120
239
192
147
-200 300 800 1,300 1,800
Orange County (All)
(1,782 Sales)
CHCCS District
(1,049 Sales)
Not CHCCS
(686 Sales)
<$200,000 $200,000-$299,999 $300,000-$399,999
$400,000-$600,000 $600,000 or more

169. Renting
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

170. Most People Renting
(2012-2016 ACS)
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Source: 5-Year American Community Survey
39%
59%
52%
37%
23%
Orange Carrboro Chapel Hill Hillsborough Chatham

171. Median Rent
2007-2011 vs 2012-2016 American Community Survey
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
$887 $846
$934
$870
$824
$872
$970 $945
$1,061
$831 $803
$921
Orange Carrboro Chapel Hill Hillsborough Chatham Durham
2007-2011 ACS 2012-2016 ACS

172. What People are Paying for Rent
Orange County Gross Rent Paid (2012-2016 ACS)
5%
49%
31%
15%
Less than $500
$500 to $999
$1,000 tp $1,499
$1,500 or more
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

173. Changes in % Paying $1,000 or More in Rent
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
34%
25%
42%
30% 31% 33%
46%
43%
56%
24% 24%
40%
Orange Carrboro Chapel Hill Hillsborough Chatham Durham
2007-2011 ACS 2012-2016 ACS

174. 25%
25%
50%
21%
25%
54%
Less than 20%
20-29%
30% or more
2007-2011 ACS 2012-2016 ACS
Households Paying >30% of Gross Income on Rent Declines
Gross Rent as a Percentage of Household Income
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

175. 19%
-1%
-7%
Less than 20%
20-29%
30% or more
Households Paying >30% of Gross Income on Rent Declines
Percent Change 2007-2010 to 2012-2016
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

176. Visitor Spending
and Economic Impact

177. $107.35
$102.12 $101.61
$104.38
$106.49
$113.65
$121.48
$124.43
$126.13
$85
$100
$115
$130
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Hotel Average Daily Rate Continues to Increase
Orange County Average Daily Rate, 2009-2017
Source: Chapel Hill/Orange County Visitors Bureau
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

178. Orange County Hotel Average Daily Occupancy Off Peak
Average Daily Hotel Occupancy, 2009-2017
Source: Chapel Hill/Orange County Visitors Bureau
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
58.9% 59.6%
64.1% 65.1% 65.1%
69.9% 70.5% 70.1%
66.8%
48%
56%
64%
72%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

179. $63.34 $60.87
$65.15 $68.00 $69.60
$79.45
$85.69 $87.18 $84.25
$-
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Revenue per Room Continues to Grow
Orange County Average Revenue Per Room, 2009-2017
Source: Chapel Hill/Orange County Visitors Bureau
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

180. Orange County Revenues from Tourism Rising
(Adjusted for Inflation)
State and Local Visitor Spending Tax Revenue (millions)
2018 State of the Community Report
Source: Prepared for VisitNC by the US Travel Association
#CHCSOTC
$9.2 $8.9 $9.2 $9.6 $10.1 $10.5
$3.2 $3.5 $3.7 $3.9 $4.0 $4.2
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
State Tax Receipts ($2016) Local Tax Receipts ($2016)

181. Domestic Visitor Spending Increases 4.4%
Orange County Domestic Visitor Spending (millions)
$184.45
$192.63
2015 2016
Source: Prepared for VisitNC by the US Travel Association
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

182. Domestic Visitor Expenditures (millions) on Steady Increase
(Adjusted for Inflation $2016)
Orange County Domestic Visitor Expenditures
Source: Prepared for VisitNC by the US Travel Association
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
$151
$153
$193
$70
$110
$150
$190
$230
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

183. 191 203 217
262
339
261255 254
282
355
467
394
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
2017 2018
#CHCSOTC
Air B&B Room Nights Increasing
2018 State of the Community Report

184. #CHCSOTC
Air B&B Annual Revenue Growing in Orange County
*2018 projected based on trends
2018 State of the Community Report#CHCSOTC
$1,739,404
$4,000,892
$6,645,065
$9,823,136
2015 2016 2017 2018*

185. What is it all Worth?
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

186. Orange County 2018 Total Assessed Value
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Chapel Hill,
$7B (44%)
Carrboro,
$2.1B (13%)
Hillsborough,
$886 M (5.5%)
Rest of
County, $6B
(37.3%)
Total = $16 billion

187. 2018 Orange County Commercial Assessed Value (millions)
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Chapel Hill,
$1.3 Billion
(63%)
Carrboro,
$229
million
(11%)
Hillsborough,
$296 million
(14%)
Rest of County,
$234 million
(11%)
Total = $2.06 billion

188. 2018 Orange County Residential Assessed Value
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Chapel Hill,
$5 billion
(39%)
Carrboro,
$1.6 billion
(13%)
Hillsborough,
$516 million (4%)
Rest of
County,
$5.7 billion
(44%)
Total = $13 billion

189. 2018 Orange County Apartment Assessed Value (millions)
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
Chapel Hill,
$654 million
(64%)
Carrboro,
$260 million
(25%)
Hillsborough,
$74 million (7%)
Rest of Orange County,
$34 million (3%)
Total = $1 billion

190. 72.1% 77.1%
58.2%
95.5%
80.7%
18.5% 10.7%
33.4%
3.9%
12.9%
9.3% 12.2% 8.4%
0.6% 6.4%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Chapel Hill Carrboro Hillsborough Rest of Orange
County
Total County
Residential Commercial Apartment
2018 Orange County Assessed Value
#CHCSOTC#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

191. Crime
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

192. Violent Crime Rate Per 100,000
By County
Source: North Carolina Department of Public Safety -> View Crime Statistics -> Annual Summary Report (most recent year)
232.0
158
371.5
173
2001 2006 2011 2016
Chatham Orange
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

193. Violent Crime Rate Per 100,000
By County
Source: North Carolina Department of Public Safety -> View Crime Statistics -> Annual Summary Report (most recent year)
397
158
773
173
240
2001 2006 2011 2016
Alamance Chatham Durham Orange Wake
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

194. Property Crime Rate Per 100,000
By County, 2001 - 2016
Source: North Carolina Department of Public Safety -> View Crime Statistics -> Annual Summary Report (most recent year)
3318.6
1,511
4,887
2,051
2001 2006 2011 2016
Chatham Orange
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

195. Property Crime Rate Per 100,000
By County, 2001 - 2016
Source: North Carolina Department of Public Safety -> View Crime Statistics -> Annual Summary Report (most recent year)
2,405
1,511
3,7154,887
2,051
1,885
2001 2006 2011 2016
Alamance Chatham Durham Orange Wake
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

196. Low crime, but you are a worrier
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

197. 2017-18 City and Town Property Tax Rates
Source: NC Department of Revenue
Cary, 0.3500
Apex, 0.3800
Raleigh, 0.4253
Chapel Hill, 0.508
Durham, 0.5786
Carrboro, 0.5894
Salisbury, 0.7096
Huntersville
Cary
Apex
Raleigh
Asheville
Charlotte
Concord
Wilmington
Fayetteville
Chapel Hill
Greenville
Gastonia
Wilson
Hickory
Durham
Monroe
Carrboro
Burlington
Winston-Salem
Kannapolis
Greensboro
Jacksonville
High Point
Goldsboro
Rocky Mount
Salisbury
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

198. Cary, 0.965
Apex, 0.995
Raleigh, 1.0403
Chapel Hill, 1.3457
Durham, 1.3465
Carrboro, 1.4271
Cary
Asheville
Apex
Raleigh
Wilmington
Huntersville
Hickory
Burlington
Concord
Greenville
Wilson
Charlotte
Fayetteville
Goldsboro
Jacksonville
Winston-Salem
Kannapolis
Rocky Mount
Chapel Hill
Durham
Greensboro
Monroe
Salisbury
High Point
Gastonia
Carrboro
2016 All Jurisdictions Property Tax Rates
Source: NC Department of Revenue
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

199. Burlington, $1,246
Raleigh, $2,720
Durham, $2,841
Apex, $3,388
Cary, $3,449
Carrboro, $3,873
Chapel Hill, $4,979
Goldsboro
Rocky Mount
Burlington
Fayetteville
Greenville
Hickory
High Point
Jacksonville
Kannapolis
Winston-Salem
Wilson
Salisbury
Greensboro
Gastonia
Concord
Monroe
Wilmington
Asheville
Raleigh
Charlotte
Durham
Huntersville
Apex
Cary
Carrboro
Chapel Hill
2017-18 Tax Assessed on Median Home Value
Source: NC Department of Revenue, Zillow 5/2018
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

200. And at the same time there are
those in our community with
very little

201. Percent of People in Poverty
2000 2006 2011 2016
Orange County 10% 14% 17%
13%
Chatham County 9% 12% 11%
12%
Durham County 11% 16% 20%
16%
Wake County 7% 9% 12%
9%
North Carolina 12% 15% 18%
15%
United States 11% 13% 16%
14%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE)
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

202. Orange County SNAP Individuals Decline from Peak
Monthly Participants Over Time
Source: NC Department of Health and Human Services
9,898
11,779
6,111
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
Jan-18Jan-17Jan-16Jan-15Jan-14Jan-12Jan-11Jan-10Jan-09Jan-08Jan-07
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

203. Number of Children in Poverty Decreasing
1998 through 2016
2018 State of the Community Report
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE)
2,773
4,822
3,229
1,848
2,952
2,462
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Orange County Chatham County
#CHCSOTC

204. Food Insecurity Rate by County (2016)
Source: Feeding America
15.4%
13.2%
14.7%
10.9%
17.3%
12.7%
North Carolina Orange Alamance Chatham Durham Wake
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

205. -2.9%
-2.2% -2.0%
-1.1% -0.9%
-1.7%
-9.0%
-8.0%
-7.0%
-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
North
Carolina Orange Alamance Chatham Durham Wake
Percentage Point Change in Food Insecurity Rate
2013 to 2016
Source: Feeding America
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

206. Food Insecure People by County (2016)
Source: Feeding America
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
18,460
22,930
7,480
50,890
Orange Alamance Chatham Durham

207. Health Data

208. Adult Smoking Rates
Compared to Adjacent and Peer Communities
Source: Robert Wood Johnson Foundation
14%
19%
15% 16%
14%
11%
22%
13%
19%
13%
10%
16% 16%
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

209. Adult Obesity
Compared to Adjacent and Peer Communities
Source: Robert Wood Johnson Foundation
23%
33%
26% 26%
23%
14%
26% 24% 23% 24%
21%
29%
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

210. Violent Crime Rate per 100,000
Compared to Adjacent and Peer Communities
Source: Robert Wood Johnson Foundation
150
396
174
613
245 210
372
231
277 299 264
435
363
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

211. Disconnected Youth
Compared to Adjacent and Peer Communities
Source: Robert Wood Johnson Foundation
4%
13%
20%
13%
8%
6% 5% 6% 6%
4%
10%
13%
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

212. 9
12
6
9 10
13
17 18
11
17
15
18
Drug Overdose Deaths per 100,000
Compared to Adjacent and Peer Communities
Source: Robert Wood Johnson Foundation
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

213. 21%
16% 16% 17%
20%
24%
17%
29%
21%
25%
20% 19%
Excessive Drinking
Compared to Adjacent and Peer Communities
Source: Robert Wood Johnson Foundation
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

214. Access to Exercise Opportunities
Compared to Adjacent and Peer Communities
Source: Robert Wood Johnson Foundation
86% 86%
65%
92% 92% 97%
87%
95%
83%
94% 96%
88%
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

215. Prostate Cancer Rate per 100,000
2006-2010 vs. 2011-2015
Source: N.C. State Center for Health Statistics
154.9
167.6
134.2
160.9
142.8
178.5
109.4 108.3
96.9 101.8
84.1
118.3
NORTH
CAROLINA
Alamance Chatham Durham Orange Wake
2007-2011 2012-2016
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

216. Female Breast Cancer Rate per 100,000
2007-2011 vs. 2012-2016
Source: N.C. State Center for Health Statistics
159.2
166.0
181.0
173.0
170.6 169.5
157.5
181.2
169.4
174.6
177.0
168.0
NORTH
CAROLINA
Alamance Chatham Durham Orange Wake
2007-2011 2012-2016
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

217. Orange County Teen Pregnancy Rates Decrease
Per 1000 Girls, Age 15-17
Source: NC Health and Human Services
26.1
9.1
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Too few to
calculate rates
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

218. #CHCSOTC
2018 Health Indicators
Health Indicator
Orange
County
Chatham
County
Who is #1
Length of Life #1 #9 Orange
Quality of Life
Health Behaviors
Clinical Care
Social and Economic
Factors
Physical Environment
Source: 2016 County Health Rankings - Robert Wood Johnson Foundation
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

219. #CHCSOTC
2018 Health Indicators
Health Indicator
Orange
County
Chatham
County
Who is #1
Length of Life #1 #9 Orange
Quality of Life #4 #19 Dare
Health Behaviors
Clinical Care
Social and Economic
Factors
Physical Environment
Source: 2016 County Health Rankings - Robert Wood Johnson Foundation
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

220. #CHCSOTC
2018 Health Indicators
Health Indicator
Orange
County
Chatham
County
Who is #1
Length of Life #1 #9 Orange
Quality of Life #4 #19 Dare
Health Behaviors #2 #3 Wake
Clinical Care
Social and Economic
Factors
Physical Environment
Source: 2016 County Health Rankings - Robert Wood Johnson Foundation
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

221. #CHCSOTC
2018 Health Indicators
Health Indicator
Orange
County
Chatham
County
Who is #1
Length of Life #1 #9 Orange
Quality of Life #4 #19 Dare
Health Behaviors #2 #3 Wake
Clinical Care #1 #17 Orange
Social and Economic
Factors
Physical Environment
Source: 2016 County Health Rankings - Robert Wood Johnson Foundation
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

222. #CHCSOTC
2018 Health Indicators
Health Indicator
Orange
County
Chatham
County
Who is #1
Length of Life #1 #9 Orange
Quality of Life #4 #19 Dare
Health Behaviors #2 #3 Wake
Clinical Care #1 #17 Orange
Social and Economic
Factors #2 #13 Union
Physical Environment
Source: 2016 County Health Rankings - Robert Wood Johnson Foundation
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

223. #CHCSOTC
2018 Health Indicators
Health Indicator
Orange
County
Chatham
County
Who is #1
Length of Life #1 #9 Orange
Quality of Life #4 #19 Dare
Health Behaviors #2 #3 Wake
Clinical Care #1 #17 Orange
Social and Economic
Factors #2 #13 Union
Physical Environment #33 #19 Hyde
Source: 2016 County Health Rankings - Robert Wood Johnson Foundation
#CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report

224. Summary
Add #

225. #CHCSOTC
Summary
• We are growing, but slowly, and we are less dense than peer
communities.
• Young workers working in Orange, and driving into Orange, is
increasing.
• Household income is out-pacing inflation.
• Orange has number 1 in per capita income but lags in per capita
sales.
• Retail gap remains wide with additional retail opportunity on the
horizon.
• CHCCS continues to out perform peers.
• Minority student reading is improving in CHCCS and the
achievement gap is closing there.

226. #CHCSOTC
Summary
• Health Indicators show Orange and Chatham lead neighbors and
peers.
• Rent is getting more expensive, but wage growth is outpacing it.
• Housing prices are increasing, though rate of growth in Orange is
slowest
• Orange and Chatham properties are valuable and have a strong
and growing tax bases.
• Poverty, and children in poverty, are declining.
• Crime is down.
• We remain one the best places in the world to live, work, shop,
play, learn, and raise a family. Add #

227. #CHCSOTC
Creighton Blackwell
2018 Chamber Board Vice Chair
2018 State of the Community Report

228. #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
2018 InterCity Visit
September 23-25
LAWRENCE, KANSAS
Only 17 Spots Remaining
Register at
CarolinaChamber.org/ICV

229. #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
HELP YOUR LOCAL COMMUNITY,
GET A CHANCE TO WIN
$10,000
Step 1: Buy a $100 ticket for a 1 in 400 chance!
Step 2: Attend the Party Thursday, October 25 from 5:30-8 p.m.
See any Chamber Board Member or visit
carolinachamber.org/raffle to purchase your ticket!
Proceeds support the Chamber’s economic and community
development work.

230. #CHCSOTC 2018 State of the Community Report
The Chamber’s Hendrick Golf Classic
October 8, 2018 | Governors Club | 8:30 am - 5 pm
Come Play on Columbus Day!

231. Thank you for attending the
2018 State of the
Community Report