1.
@caweena #future
Designing your product vision:
Introduction to Scenario Planning
Carina Ngai
Product Design Lead
Inflection, LLC
Redwood City, CA
ngai.carina@gmail.com
@caweena #future
june 20th
, 2013

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@caweena #future
Scenario planning
Study of the future

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What is Scenario Planning?
� Foresight methodology to help us make better decisions today
� Helps identify risks & opportunities, inform strategy,
development, and stimulate innovations
� Mostly been used in a business context for strategic planning,
and risk management

4.
What is Scenario Planning?
� Foresight methodology to help us make better decisions today
� Helps identify risks & opportunities, inform strategy,
development, and stimulate innovations
� Mostly been used in a business context for strategic planning,
and risk management
� NOT indended to be predictions or visions of desired futures
� Provides structure to allow us to start thinking about the
longer term future, and the possible implications

5.
What is Scenario Planning?
� Ask “What if?” instead of “What is?”
� It’s about options, not actions.

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HOW TO:
1. List Driving Forces
2. Rank importance
3. Make a Scenario Grid
4. Imagine the possible future worlds
5. Brainstorm implications and actions
to: harry moore
from: findorf farm
dear harry, here’s
an early bird
notice that new
produce is
available. come
along and pick up a
chicken!
findorf farm shares
this is to certify that
harry moore owns 100
shares
for sale
peer-to-peer bankers
first-time
buyers
peer-to-peer
mortgagescommunity
farm
Source: Forum for the future, Sainsbury’s
Illustration: Ian Dera
World 1 World 2
World 3 World 4

7.
+ DESIGN
1. Find patterns in 4 worlds World 1 World 2
World 3 World 4

8.
+ DESIGN
1. Find patterns in 4 worlds
2. Create a Vision
NOW
North Star

9.
+ DESIGN
1. Find patterns in 4 worlds
2. Create a Vision
3. Design a vision prototype
4. Build a product roadmap
NOW
North Star

10.
When is the best time
to do Scenario Planning?

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VISUAL EXPLORATIONS INSIGHTS
Brand Anology
Exercise+
RESEARCH CONCEPT DEV FINAL OUTPUTBRAND DEV
Analysis
Public Persona
Social
Connector
Selective
Sharer
Survey
Interviews
Secondary
Research
PERSONA
Identity’s
Branding
Iterate
& Refine
Future TrendsScenario
Planning
Workshops
+
Sketching
Sessions+
5 Design
Principles
Generate
“What-if”
Exercise
Scenarios
Storyboard
Workflow Sample
Wireframes
VISION PROTOTYPE
New Feature
Ideas
Identity’s long term vision
Evaluate
& Rank
Creative
Leap
+
Persona
Development
2 / 6

12.
Ready to give it a try?

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@caweena #future
What is the Future of
PERSONAL DATA?

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@caweena #future
Trends & Facts
1. By 2020, global volume of
digital data will increase more
than 40 folds.
2. Law and government is catching
up with technology loopholes.
3. Ubiquitous computing &
Internet of Things.
4. Privacy is reactive.
5. People are willing to share more
only when value outweight risks.
6. Emerging contextually sensitive
approach to privacy.
7. “Creep factor”. Nuances of
privacy continue to evolve.

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@caweena #future
1. By 2020, global volume of
digital data will increase more
than 40 folds.
2. Law and government is catching
up with technology loopholes.
3. Ubiquitous computing &
Internet of Things.
4. Privacy is reactive.
5. People are willing to share more
only when value outweight risks.
6. Emerging contextually sensitive
approach to privacy.
7. “Creep factor”. Nuances of
privacy continue to evolve.
Trends & Facts
How Target Figured
Out A Teen Girl Was
Pregnant Before Her
Father Did -Forbes 02/2012

16.
@caweena #future
1. By 2020, global volume of
digital data will increase more
than 40 folds.
2. Law and government is catching
up with technology loopholes.
3. Ubiquitous computing &
Internet of Things.
4. Privacy is reactive.
5. People are willing to share more
only when value outweight risks.
6. Emerging contextually sensitive
approach to privacy.
7. “Creep factor”. Nuances of
privacy continue to evolve.
Trends & Facts
Girls Around Me:
An App Takes Creepy to
a New Level -NYTimes 03/2012

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@caweena #future
List Driving Forces:
1. Social
2. Technological
3. Economic
4. Environmental
5. Political

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@caweena #future
Themes:
1. Digital Tattoo
2. Data Ownership
3. Government regulations on Privacy
4. State of Economy
5. Internet of Things
6. Sustainability
7. Social Media Domination / Fragmentation

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@caweena #future
Most Critical Uncertainties:
1. Digital Tattoo
2. Data Ownership
3. Government regulations on Privacy
4. State of Economy
5. Internet of Things
6. Sustainability
7. Social Media Domination / Fragmentation

20.
Economic
Depression
Economic
prosperity
You’re an open
book for life
Complete control of
your Personal Data
Personal Data in 2020
?

21.
In World #3
It’s about
Big Brother Business
Insecurity, suspicion
Real world connections
Big business and corporations
Rumors
It’s NOT about
Online credibility
Efficiency
Startups
?

22.
Grassroots movement
No trust
Face to face interaction wins

23.
More people are struggling for survival due to the depressed economy. More
crime, fraud and terrorism appear because of desperation and the easiness to
hide one’s trace. The efficiency of crime solving goes down since police force
has to return to a street-based investigation. Only big companies with ample
resources can start a mass data driven business, such as selling people’s data.
People are increasingly dissatisfied with the government and resent big
corporations. Grassroot level protests start to grow, demanding a more efficient
government, lower crime rate, and more jobs. Rumors can potentially lead to
massive chaos.
The level of trust goes down: Education will be dominated by traditional schooling
system. Online dating is dying, people seek more traditional personal connections
to get to know each other. Street smart people has a higher chance to prosper
with their connections.
In sleeping volcano...

24.
What will you see on a newspaper headline?
What kind of business will thrive?

25.
What will you see on a newspaper headline?
What kind of business will thrive?

26.
FEEL: Suspicious, dirt digging, gossips, isolated
OPPORTUNITIES: Data bartering, Data Pawn shop,
Negotiator, Face-2-face, On-foot verification,
Data = currency

27.
Economic
Depression
Economic
prosperity
You’re an open
book for life
Complete control of
your Personal Data
World 2
Anarchic Data
Highway
Personal Data in 2020

28.
World #2
Anarchic Data Highway
It’s about
Government efficiency
Filter bubble
Private Internets
Individualism
Emerging new business types
It’s NOT about
Anonymity
Common codes of conduct
?

29.
Efficiency
Multiple Identities
Indivisualism

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Government has the resource to leverage public data to focus on longer term
projects: Several privacy protection acts are passed to regulate companies’ access
and usage of personal data, and prevent people abusing others by their online
record. Scientific research like space programs and disease studies are funded.
The prosperity of economy stimulates ample opportunities in all fields, the ease
of living encourage people to express their uniqueness, flaunting their lifestyles
& quirks. Private Internet is established for people to share information within a
selective circle. Business such as image makeover consultancy emerges, guiding
people in not only how to make amends for past imperfections, but also how to
shape their own special online presence. Also parents will try to create a “golden
plate” online presence for their children from the first day.
Meanwhile, companies have the resource to invest heavily on data-mining and
profiling for marketing, which might lead to extreme filter bubbles for consumers.
In anarchic data highway...

31.
Synthesizing & Sketching

32.
World 3
Sleeping
Volcano
World 4
Dual Face Nation
Economic
Depression
Economic
prosperity
You’re an open
book for life
Complete control of
your Personal Data
Personal Data in 2020
World 2
Anarchic Data
Highway
World 1
Luddite Fallacy

33.
Economic
Depression
Economic
prosperity
You’re an open
book for life
Complete control of
your Personal Data
New Currencies
World 3
Personal Data
World 4
Honesty
World 2
Recognition
World 1
Security

34.
Vision Storyboard

35.
EASY
CONSENT AND
PAINLESS
FORM FILLING
Jamie sends out a
consent request to the
candidate Rita. Rita
authorizes the
background check over
her mobile device. She
then logs into LinkedIn to
pre-fill the form.

36.
education
how to read
types of report
monthly emails
mobile contextual message
PS, GH trigger
curate stories
archive
prompt
public records
public records
publicprivate
self-branded
nudge / trigger
edit / fix
manage
add services
add personal
data
share
top 10 things
about me
System
Diagram
Verified user generated content
will be feeding into our
system. This will give our
company a unique advantage,
because we will then have an
authentic workflow that can be
leveraged by Product A and
Product B.
**Personal Data = voluntary
user-generated data such as
photo, video, narratives
Disclaimer: Content is modified for confidentiality purpose
Self-branded billboard
empower users to select
their top 10 news.
The new system will provide
ways for user to see, fix,
educate, and interact with
the central library.
**
top 10 news
billboard
library

37.
New feature wireframes
Find connection
Matthew Carter Robert Hu
Chad Howell
Rick
Find connection
David Johnson Eugene Stevens
Linda Jackson
Jacob Whitman
Malinda Harvey
Chad Howell
Brad Simons
Amy Butler
Laura Croft
Rachel Bolton
Mary Poppins
Elizabeth Gaskell
David Liu
2008
2013
Circle of Influence
Rick
Find connection
Nick CarlsonLinda Jackson
Ben Chapman
Erik Stolterman
Matthew Carter Robert Hu
Malinda Harvey
Chad Howell
Mary Jackson
Amy Butler
Martin Neal
Elizabeth Gaskell
Julia Shelton
David Johnson
Rick
David Johnson Eugene Stevens
Linda Jackson
Jacob Whitman
Malinda Harvey
Brad Simons
Amy Butler
Rachel Bolton
Elizabeth Gaskell
2008
2013
LEFT:
Rick added Facebook, MySpace, and Twitter to iD. He can choose to add more
social media accounts on the top left. In 2008, this graph shows his circle of
influence, with Linda, David and Eugene being his closest friends. This is
calculated by the frequency of intereactions etc.
2008
RIGHT:
By simply dragging the slider through the timeline towards 2013, you can see
how his circle of influence has changed, with Linda still being his closest friend,
and Nick being the new best friend. This may be something Rick hasn’t thought
about, and he may want to re-engage with his old friends
2013

38.
New feature wireframes
2008
2013
Job hunting
Recruiters
Graduation Living in the bay area:
food & entertainment
Interviewing
with Google
Hourly Salary
Converter
Alumni
networking
event
Gamers’
guild
meetup
Intel Inteviews
My resume
San Francisco
Bay area
crime map
and 6 more
Gamers’guild meetup
Gamers’guild meetup every Thursday night, starting 6pm. We play videos
games, card games, and board gamges.
Next week’s theme will be fighting games. Bring your controller or arcade
stick and join us for a round of Guilty Gear.
17
9
12
Eric Davis 5
Dept Chair
Mom
What’s happening
2008
2013
Recruiters
Graduation Living in the bay area:
food & entertainment
Interviewing
with Google
Hourly Salary
Converter
Alumni
networking
event
Gamers’
guild
meetup
My resume
San Francisco
Homes for sale
School district
ratings
Coachella
Bay area
crime map
Mortgage
Rate
Puppy
training
classes
Trulia
loan
calculator
Annual
job
review
IKEA
family
member
and 6 more
Gamers’guild meetup
Gamers’guild meetup every Thursday night, starting 6pm. We play videos
games, card games, and board gamges.
Next week’s theme will be fighting games. Bring your controller or arcade
stick and join us for a round of Guilty Gear.
17
Real Estate Agent 23
9
12
Dept Chair
Mom
LEFT:
From the email account Rick used to sign up, iD is able to analyze the data
within. In 2008, this graph shows his topic of interest during that time. Each
rectangle size correponds to the frequency of topics appeared in the email. Rick
had just graduated from college, and was actively looking for jobs. Hover over
the squares for more details.
2008
RIGHT:
By simply dragging the slider through the timeline towards 2013, you can see
how his topic of interest has changed. Rick is now actively looking for a house
in San Francisco. The biggest rectangle size shows the frequency of interaction
with his real estate agent.
2013

39.
5 / 6

40.
@caweena #future
Design helps us better understand
future possibilities in order to
make better decisions today