Mais conteúdo relacionado Semelhante a Webinar: The Innovator's Hypothesis by Michael Schrage (20) Mais de businessforward (20) 1. Thomson Reuters MDS © 2015
The Innovator’s Hypothesis
WHY CHEAP EXPERIMENTS ARE WORTH MORE THAN ‘GOOD IDEAS’
2. TIH/MDS © 2015
The Content of the Audience
is more important than
The Content of the Talk
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I explore…
‘Behavioral Economics’ of Enterprise
Experimentation, Innovation & Network Effects
Via their Models, Prototypes & Simulations
7. My Advisory/Consulting Work
i help organizations design fast, frugal and
high-impact business experiments that make innovation
simpler, safer and scalable…
TIH/MDS © 2015
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‘Experiments’ as Means, Medium & Mechanism
For New Value Discovery & Creation
-What Kind of ‘Investment’ Is It?
More Explicitly…..
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Call To Action/Takeaway
Simply, Quickly and Frugally Explores
‘Experimenting with Experimenting’
-- What Kinds of ‘Innovation Conversations’ Do You Want to Create?
--What ‘Innovation Experimentation’ Should You Encourage?
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Our Structure
• Experiments as ‘Investments’
• Experimentation as a ‘Discipline’
• Experimentation as a ‘Future’
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A Goal: To Transform How You Perceive
Innovation Risk Management
21. The ‘Fundamental’ Challenge
(How) Can We Make a $5,000 Experiment Worth
$100,000 In Fewer Than 100 Days?
- (How) Can a Portfolio of $5K Experiments Unlock $10 Million of Value in a Year?
TIH/MDS © 2015
22. ‘Adding Up’ the Exponential Impact
X = ?
Moore’s Law Metcalfe’s Law
TIH/MDS © 2015
26. What Business Hypotheses Might We Test – What Experiments Can We Run – That Might Give us
• 80% of the “Essential” Information/Insight in
• 20% of the Time; with but
•20% of the Resources
TIH/MDS © 2015
28. Experiments as Media to….
‘Derisk’Innovation
--not ‘Optimization’ but ‘Loss Aversion’
TIH/MDS © 2015
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Why Does This Upset People So?
‘Good Ideas’ are Bad;
‘Testable Hypotheses’ are Good!
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Amazon Recommendation Engine [Greg Linden]
I I I I hacked up a prototype. On a test site, I modified the Amazon.com
shopping cart page to recommend other items you might enjoy
adding to your cart. Looked pretty good to me. I started showing it
around…
At this point, I was told I was forbidden to work on this any further. I was
told Amazon was not ready to launch this feature. It should have
stopped there. Instead, I prepared the feature for an online test. I
believed in shopping cart recommendations. I wanted to measure
the sales impact….
38. ‘We can’t do that because…’
‘Resistance’
is by far the clearest window into understanding
Your Organization’s Innovation Culture
TIH/MDS © 2015
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The Greatest Innovation Frustrations Now Are Organizational & Cultural NOT Technical or Financial
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So what ‘Innovation’ Business are We now in?
The
Experiments
Business
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The CEO’s Deliverable:
A Portfolio of
Testable Business Hypotheses
that Matter!
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What is a ‘Portfolio’?
A Bundle of Experiments Bound Together
By A Value-Driven Theme
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Business Hypothesis
A Statement About the Real or Potential Value
of the Business Framed as a Causal Relationship
If We Do ‘X’…Then The [Likely] Result is ‘Y’
53. With apologies to Cuba Gooding Jr. & everyone else…
‘Show Me The Hypothesis….!’
TIH/MDS © 2015
54. Consider Taking Rutherford Seriously….
‘If your experiments need statistics, you
you ought to have done a better experiment‘
TIH/MDS © 2015
55. Consider Taking Rutherford Seriously….
‘An Experiment is not complete until it has been
expressed in simple and correct English.’
TIH/MDS © 2015
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Key Takeaways/Heuristics
• Analyze Less; Experiment More
• Privilege ‘Testable Hypotheses’ Over ‘Good Ideas’
• Celebrate ‘Creative Constraints’
• Make ‘Experiment’ Social
• Do The Experiments That Matter Most
• Insights First, ‘Solutions’ Later
• Track The ‘Hypothesis Trajectory’
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We’re not ‘smarter’ or ‘better’ but...
The reason why we are on a higher imaginative level is not because we have finer
imaginations, but because we have better instruments.
In science, the most important thing that has happened over the last forty years is the
advance in instrumental design.…A fresh instrument serves the same purpose as foreign
travel, it shows things in unusual combinations…
The gain is more than a mere addition; it is a transformation.
A.N. Whitehead
An Enquiry Concerning the Principles of Natural Knowledge
Cambridge University Press 1925
