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gameristaTM
2015 SCENARIOS FOR
THE FUTURE OF DIGITAL GAMES
#2015gamescenarios
gamerista (TM)
(c) 2015 www.gamerista.net
gamerista TM
VIDEO GAME R & D
gameristaTM
DIGITAL VIDEO GAMES STRATEGY
USER AND ...
THE DIGITAL GAME ECOSYSTEM
CONTEXT/VENUE CONTENT APPLICATIONS
PLATFORMSSERVICES INFRASTRUCTURE
gamerista (TM)
(c) 2015 www...
gameristaTM
THEME 1:
OLD WINE, NEWBOTTLES
#2015gamescenarios
$100 BILLION
IT’S A BIG GAME
THE 2015 GLOBAL DIGITAL GAMES INDUSTRY
gamerista (TM)
(c) 2015 www.gamerista.net #2015gamesce...
NEWCONSOLES DRIVETHE MARKET
Video game consoles will
innovate with new
features on just-released
“next gen” platforms as
k...
MMOs & CONSOLES RULE
gamerista (TM)
(c) 2015 www.gamerista.net Source: Newzoo December, 2015#2015gamescenarios
THE LONGTAIL = NO SALE
Blockbuster titles and
genres will move fluidly
and pervasively across all
platforms to both
“upsize...
gameristaTM
THEME 2:
FANS RULE
#2015gamescenariosgamerista (TM)
(c) 2015 www.gamerista.net
WOMEN LEAN IN MORE
Women represent 50% of
the world’s population.
They also make up the
fastest growing segment
of digital...
PC/MMOs F2P EXPLODING
gamerista (TM)
(c) 2015 www.gamerista.net
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
25%28%30%33%36%...
FAN-BASED ITERATIVE MMOs
gamerista (TM)
(c) 2015 www.gamerista.net
Startup PC/MMOs are
using a new business
model which in...
NEWCONTENT, NEWAUDIENCES
gamerista (TM)
(c) 2015 www.gamerista.net #2015gamescenariosgamerista (TM)
(c) 2015 www.gamerista...
gameristaTM
THEME 3:
MOBILE MOVES AWAY
#2015gamescenariosgamerista (TM)
(c) 2015 www.gamerista.net
EPIC WIN FOR GLOBAL MOBILE
The United States lags
the world in top-grossing
mobile digital game
revenue on both iOS and
An...
The first boom in mobile
game development and
distribution is now over.
A mobile video game, unless highly
compelling and p...
MARKETING MONEYTALKS, D.I.Y. WALKS
Like any other industry,
hits and “discovery” in the
digital games industry will
increa...
MOBILE ADVERTISING WILL EXPLODE
Although in-game and
outright purchase will
continue to be popular
in worldwide markets,
6...
gameristaTM
THEME 3:
VIDEO GAME VIDEO VOYEURISM
#2015gamescenariosgamerista (TM)
(c) 2015 www.gamerista.net
YOUTUBE OR SOMEBODY ELSE WILL
Source: Newzoo 2015
#2015gamescenarios
gamerista (TM)
(c) 2015 www.gamerista.net
Tie-ins to ...
TWITCH
Source: Twitch, 2015gamerista (TM)
(c) 2015 www.gamerista.net
HUNGER for e-SPORTS GAMES
4.5 - 5.5 Billion viewer hours
Source: IHS Technology, 2015gamerista (TM)
(c) 2015 www.gamerista...
gameristaTM
THEME 4:
TRANS-PLATFORM,TRANS-MEDIA
gamerista (TM)
(c) 2015 www.gamerista.net #2015gamescenarios
CONSOLES GO FULLTRANS-MEDIA
Console game will open
their stores to more
independent titles and
stream them to multiple
dev...
SOURCES: WORLDPAY, gamerista
THETRANS-MEDIA CHALLENGE
I think that all digital
content I buy should be
accessible on all d...
SOURCES: WORLDPAY, gamerista
GLOBAL GAME PLATFORMS
gamerista (TM)
(c) 2015 www.gamerista.net #2015gamescenarios
STEAM BUILDS QUICKLY
Valve’s Steam will grow
its base of 100 million
users online, with 3,700
games, with 5 million
online...
ANDROID COMESTOGETHER
As predicted last year, the
Android OS will continue to
conslidate operating system
versions.
Frustr...
gameristaTM
THEME 5:
PARADOX OF INDUSTRY
#2015gamescenariosgamerista (TM)
(c) 2015 www.gamerista.net
THE SMALLESTBIG INDUSTRY
STUDIO SIZE
INDEPENDENT 2 - 5 6 - 10 10 - 30 31 - 50 51 - 80
81 - 100 101 - 150 151 - 200 201 - 3...
UNITY & UNREAL : RENTTHETOOLS
Both Unity and Unreal
have moved to a
subscription model for
their all-purpose
universal gam...
IT’S CHEAPER OVERTHERE
$ US HOURLY RATES
ARTIST $61 $68 $31 $37 $18 $15
LEAD ARTIST $75 $83 $38 $45 $23 $19
ARTDIRECTOR $8...
gameristaTM
THEME 6:
MAD SCIENCE EXPERIMENTS
gamerista (TM)
(c) 2015 www.gamerista.net #2015gamescenarios
HYPER-REALITY GETS REALLY REAL
The multi-pronged push
to increase ultra high
definition digital games
will occur on 4 new
f...
SEGWAY FOR THE EYES
gamerista (TM)
(c) 2015 www.gamerista.net
Consumer virtual reality
products reached the top
of the “hy...
JURY IS STILL OUTON VR EXPERIENCES
Most all of the
experiences being made
for VR are short-form
immersive explorations.
No...
AUGMENTED REALITY EXPANDS
gamerista (TM)
(c) 2015 www.gamerista.net
Microsoft Project Hololens
#2015gamescenarios
GOGGLETAKES A MAGIC LEAP OVER GLASS
gamerista (TM)
(c) 2015 www.gamerista.net #2015gamescenarios
gamerista TM
VIDEO GAME R & D
DIGITAL VIDEO GAMES STRATEGY
USER AND AUDIENCE EXPERIENCE TESTING & RESEARCH
ADVANCED VIDEO ...
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Gamerista 2015 Scenarios for the Future of Gaming r4.0

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This is gamerista's 2015 Scenarios for the Future of Video Games which looks at six major strategic trends which will impact the digital games business going forward. These scenarios are built based on gamerista's think tank research as well as crowd-sourced input via #2015gamescenarios.

Please submit your ideas to #2015gamesscenarios and they will be included in the next iteration of this digital video game industry crowd-sourced document.

Publicada em: Marketing
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Gamerista 2015 Scenarios for the Future of Gaming r4.0

  1. 1. gameristaTM 2015 SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE OF DIGITAL GAMES #2015gamescenarios
  2. 2. gamerista (TM) (c) 2015 www.gamerista.net gamerista TM VIDEO GAME R & D gameristaTM DIGITAL VIDEO GAMES STRATEGY USER AND AUDIENCE EXPERIENCE TESTING & RESEARCH ADVANCED VIDEO GAME DEVELOPMENT DIGITAL VIDEO GAMES INDUSTRY ECOSYSTEMS MARKET RESEARCH gamerista TM STUDIO LAB AUSTIN STUDIOS RED BUILDING, #400 1901 E. 52nd. STREET AUSTIN, TEXAS 78723 +1.512.825.6866 - Direct +1.512.897.7100 - Main info@gamerista.net www.gamerista.net @thegamerista facebook.com/gamerista bhollyman@gamerista.net
  3. 3. THE DIGITAL GAME ECOSYSTEM CONTEXT/VENUE CONTENT APPLICATIONS PLATFORMSSERVICES INFRASTRUCTURE gamerista (TM) (c) 2015 www.gamerista.net #2015gamescenarios
  4. 4. gameristaTM THEME 1: OLD WINE, NEWBOTTLES #2015gamescenarios
  5. 5. $100 BILLION IT’S A BIG GAME THE 2015 GLOBAL DIGITAL GAMES INDUSTRY gamerista (TM) (c) 2015 www.gamerista.net #2015gamescenarios
  6. 6. NEWCONSOLES DRIVETHE MARKET Video game consoles will innovate with new features on just-released “next gen” platforms as killer hit titles appear. New raw processing power and hyper- real capabilities will enable new capabilities such a motion, virtual reality and immersive play. This, coupled with their online stores with digital distribution capabilities, will increase their market share over the next 2-3 years, contrary to market projections on the demise of the console market. Despite some outlooks, Nintendo’s franchise will remain stable. gamerista (TM) (c) 2015 www.gamerista.net #2015gamescenarios
  7. 7. MMOs & CONSOLES RULE gamerista (TM) (c) 2015 www.gamerista.net Source: Newzoo December, 2015#2015gamescenarios
  8. 8. THE LONGTAIL = NO SALE Blockbuster titles and genres will move fluidly and pervasively across all platforms to both “upsize” and “downsize” by category and title. Key titles and genres will be candidates for porting from/to console and mobile platforms, based on audience, brand, gameplay experience and appeal. Despite a thousand flowers blooming, in the last 5 years, 70% - 80% of digital game industry revenue will come from less than 1% of all digital game titles. gamerista (TM) (c) 2015 www.gamerista.net #2015gamescenarios
  9. 9. gameristaTM THEME 2: FANS RULE #2015gamescenariosgamerista (TM) (c) 2015 www.gamerista.net
  10. 10. WOMEN LEAN IN MORE Women represent 50% of the world’s population. They also make up the fastest growing segment of digital game players around the world. Data varies widely on women gaming by game category, platform and geography. But women represent the single largest audience opportunity in the history of digital games. Ironically, they have been hidden-in-plain sight and systematically overlooked by the digital games industry. ~45% OVERALL GAME PLAYER POPULATION USA CASUAL/SOCIAL/MOBILE GAME PLAYER POPULATION USA CORE AAA GAME PLAYER POPULATION USA ~55% ~30-40% ~60-70% ~60-75% ~25-40% gamerista (TM) (c) 2015 www.gamerista.net Image: Trey Ratcliff, (c) Lost in Customes, Burning Man#2015gamescenarios
  11. 11. PC/MMOs F2P EXPLODING gamerista (TM) (c) 2015 www.gamerista.net 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 25%28%30%33%36% 75%72%70%67%64% PC/MMOs will account for more than 30% of global gaming revenues. Although the ‘Pay-To-Play’ (P2P) segment of PC/MMOs growth is flat, the ‘Free-To-Play’ (F2P) segment is growing at over 12% CAGR. Growth is heaviest in Latin America, Eastern Europe, China, Asia, India and the Middle East and will account for 95% of the growth. 10 blockbuster titles dominate this space. League of Legends World of Tanks Minecraft World of Warcraft Counter-Strike - Global Offensive Guild wars 2 Archeage Dota 2 Arma 3 Diablo III $22.6 B F2P P2P $24.4 B $26.3 B $28.4 B $30.7 B Source: Newzoo December, 2015
  12. 12. FAN-BASED ITERATIVE MMOs gamerista (TM) (c) 2015 www.gamerista.net Startup PC/MMOs are using a new business model which includes staged, iterative delivery through crowd- funding, on-going fan- driven community- based development with an integrated video channel for fans and subscribers. In- game purchases augment monthly subscriptions.
  13. 13. NEWCONTENT, NEWAUDIENCES gamerista (TM) (c) 2015 www.gamerista.net #2015gamescenariosgamerista (TM) (c) 2015 www.gamerista.net
  14. 14. gameristaTM THEME 3: MOBILE MOVES AWAY #2015gamescenariosgamerista (TM) (c) 2015 www.gamerista.net
  15. 15. EPIC WIN FOR GLOBAL MOBILE The United States lags the world in top-grossing mobile digital game revenue on both iOS and Android platforms. This gap will continue to grow. Last year, the U.S. only had 3 out of the top 10 grossing mobile titles worldwide. This year, that number dropped to only 1 in 10. Killer blockbuster titles from major publishers worldwide will dominate in 2015, with the U.S. falling further behind due to blockbuster franchise content, platforms, global demographics and relative publisher strength. TOP 10 GAME PUBLISHER CATEGORY HEADQUARTERS 1 Clash of Clans Supercell Strategy, Action Finland 2 Puzzle & Dragons GungHo Online Arcade, Puzzle Japan 3 Monster Strike Tencent Arcade, Puzzle China 4 Candy Crush Saga King Puzzle, Arcade U.K./Tencent 5 Game of Fire Machine Zone Role Play, Strategy United States 6 Candy Crush Soda King Puzzle, Arcade United Kingdom 7 Hay Day Supercell Arcade Finland 8 Disney Tsum Tsum Line Arcade, Family Japan 9 Boom Beach Supercell Strategy, Action Finland 10 Farm Heros Saga King Arcade, Family United Kingdom Source: “Top Game Apps by Monthly Revenue”, App Annie, December, 2014 TOP 10 GAME PUBLISHER CATEGORY HEADQUARTERS 1 Clash of Clans Supercell Strategy, Action Finland 2 Puzzle & Dragons GungHo Online Arcade, Puzzle Japan 3 Monster Strike Tencent Arcade, Puzzle China 4 Disney Tsum Tsum Line Arcade, Family Japan 5 Candy Crush Saga King Puzzle, Arcade U.K./Tencent 6 Game of Fire Machine Zone Role Play, Strategy United States 7 Candy Crush Soda King Puzzle, Arcade United Kingdom 8 Everybody’s Marble Netmarble, Tencent, Line Casual China, Japan, Korea 9 Seven Knights Tencent/Netmarble Role Play, Strategy China, Japan, Korea10 The White Cat Project COLOPL Casual Japan gamerista (TM) (c) 2015 www.gamerista.net
  16. 16. The first boom in mobile game development and distribution is now over. A mobile video game, unless highly compelling and promoted for hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars, now has an infinitesimally small chance of becoming a hit and monetizing its own development costs. The market is changing as quickly as it started less than 5 years ago. Barriers to market entry are now almost non-existent. But barriers to monetization are increasingly daunting and will require major resources. 0.000004= ODDS OF A MOBILE HIT gamerista (TM) (c) 2015 www.gamerista.net 1 0.000003=319,325 2014 2015 1 250,325 #2015gamescenarios
  17. 17. MARKETING MONEYTALKS, D.I.Y. WALKS Like any other industry, hits and “discovery” in the digital games industry will increasingly be driven by the amount of marketing spend behind the game. The naive notion that by putting free- to-play (FTP) “awesome” games into the ecosystem which will “get lucky and go viral” is over. FTP was down 17% for 2013. Even though game publishers of blockbuster titles have known this for years, mobile, indie/mid-core game studios/publishers will require major capital to promote their titles. GRAND THEFT AUTO V MARKETING BUDGET: $265 MILLION CPI* RATES DOUBLING FOR MOBILE WAS $2/CPI; $5 - $8/CPI IN DECEMBER CPI RATES DRIVE ARPU*** BREAK-EVEN 2.5 X HIGHER NEED TO HIT 2.5 X ARPU+ IN SMALL TIME WINDOW * CPI = COST PER INSTALL ***ARPU = AVERAGE REVENUE PER USER LOW CONVERSION RATES FOR FTP**: < 5% ** FTP = FREE TO PLAYgamerista (TM) (c) 2015 www.gamerista.net
  18. 18. MOBILE ADVERTISING WILL EXPLODE Although in-game and outright purchase will continue to be popular in worldwide markets, 68% to 34% of all mobile revenue will come from ads (in India, U.S., U.K., Germany, Canada, and France), with in-game and “adjacent” ads. gamerista (TM) (c) 2015 www.gamerista.net Ad Networks Mediation Platforms Direct to Advertisers Agencies Real Time Bidding 0 20 40 60 80% % % % % #2015gamescenarios 0% to 1% 2% to 5% 6% to 10% 11% to 20% 21 to 100% 0 10 20 30 40% % % % % % of MAUs Making 1+ In App Purchase % of Respondents Types of Ad Buying Source: App Annie, December, 2014
  19. 19. gameristaTM THEME 3: VIDEO GAME VIDEO VOYEURISM #2015gamescenariosgamerista (TM) (c) 2015 www.gamerista.net
  20. 20. YOUTUBE OR SOMEBODY ELSE WILL Source: Newzoo 2015 #2015gamescenarios gamerista (TM) (c) 2015 www.gamerista.net Tie-ins to YouTube channels created for games will be the major way a game will be able to generate an audience. That said, “Blockbuster Discovery Rules” apply with regard to massive marketing campaigns.
  21. 21. TWITCH Source: Twitch, 2015gamerista (TM) (c) 2015 www.gamerista.net
  22. 22. HUNGER for e-SPORTS GAMES 4.5 - 5.5 Billion viewer hours Source: IHS Technology, 2015gamerista (TM) (c) 2015 www.gamerista.net
  23. 23. gameristaTM THEME 4: TRANS-PLATFORM,TRANS-MEDIA gamerista (TM) (c) 2015 www.gamerista.net #2015gamescenarios
  24. 24. CONSOLES GO FULLTRANS-MEDIA Console game will open their stores to more independent titles and stream them to multiple devices. Digital game console manufacturers will race against each other, as well as new players such as amazon and Google, to open their platforms not only to curated content, but on multiple platforms along with other media such as movies, tv and music to increase their value proposition. Increasingly console players will mimic amazon’s overall current transmedia content, apps, services and platforms business model. gamerista (TM) (c) 2015 www.gamerista.net
  25. 25. SOURCES: WORLDPAY, gamerista THETRANS-MEDIA CHALLENGE I think that all digital content I buy should be accessible on all devices that I own: I wish that purchasing a video game on one device gave me access to the versions of that game for all devices: 81%TOTAL 84%TOTAL gamerista (TM) (c) 2015 www.gamerista.net
  26. 26. SOURCES: WORLDPAY, gamerista GLOBAL GAME PLATFORMS gamerista (TM) (c) 2015 www.gamerista.net #2015gamescenarios
  27. 27. STEAM BUILDS QUICKLY Valve’s Steam will grow its base of 100 million users online, with 3,700 games, with 5 million online DAU, to become a digital game distribution leader for core gamers. STEAM represents a potentially major disruptive force in the digital games distribution ecosystem. Like other app stores, it allows developers to retain 70% of revenues. Steam drives the streaming game and digital download market with a few blockbuster titles and many more indie titles with a PC/Mac strategy. gamerista (TM) (c) 2015 www.gamerista.net #2015gamescenarios
  28. 28. ANDROID COMESTOGETHER As predicted last year, the Android OS will continue to conslidate operating system versions. Frustrated with supporting 3 major release versions of Android, digital game studios and general app publishers are pushing both carriers and hardware vendors to standardize new versions of their Android releases. Apple will continue to enjoy its competitive advantage over Android by having always having 2/3rds. of it user base operating on its then-current version of iOS. gamerista (TM) (c) 2015 www.gamerista.net Lillipop KitKat Jelly Bean Icecream Sandwich Gingerbread
  29. 29. gameristaTM THEME 5: PARADOX OF INDUSTRY #2015gamescenariosgamerista (TM) (c) 2015 www.gamerista.net
  30. 30. THE SMALLESTBIG INDUSTRY STUDIO SIZE INDEPENDENT 2 - 5 6 - 10 10 - 30 31 - 50 51 - 80 81 - 100 101 - 150 151 - 200 201 - 300 301 + SOURCE: GDC STUDY, 2014gamerista (TM) (c) 2015 www.gamerista.net
  31. 31. UNITY & UNREAL : RENTTHETOOLS Both Unity and Unreal have moved to a subscription model for their all-purpose universal game development engines. With almost zero barriers to entry, “makers” with high-end tool skills will begin to move into the high-end console space with games which look like traditional “hi fi” AAA core. At the same time, high end block- buster AAA IP will be ported to mobile platforms, creating an over-supply of high quality content. gamerista (TM) (c) 2015 www.gamerista.net #2015gamescenarios
  32. 32. IT’S CHEAPER OVERTHERE $ US HOURLY RATES ARTIST $61 $68 $31 $37 $18 $15 LEAD ARTIST $75 $83 $38 $45 $23 $19 ARTDIRECTOR $88 $96 $44 $53 $26 $22 GAME DESIGNER $52 $57 $26 $31 $16 $13 PRODUCER $65 $71 $32 $39 $19 $16 TECHNICAL DIRECTOR $94 $103 $47 $56 $28 $23 LEAD PROGRAMMER $94 $103 $47 $56 $28 $23 PROGRAMMER $83 $92 $42 $50 $25 $21 AUDIO DESIGNER $69 $76 $34 $41 $21 $21 MUSIC /COMPOSER $65 $71 $32 $39 $19 $16 VIDEO GAMETESTER $42 $46 $21 $25 $13 $10 LEAD VIDEO GAME QA $63 $69 $31 $38 $19 $16 SOURCE: gamerista Analysis, 2014 gamerista (TM) (c) 2015 www.gamerista.net #2015gamescenarios
  33. 33. gameristaTM THEME 6: MAD SCIENCE EXPERIMENTS gamerista (TM) (c) 2015 www.gamerista.net #2015gamescenarios
  34. 34. HYPER-REALITY GETS REALLY REAL The multi-pronged push to increase ultra high definition digital games will occur on 4 new fronts: 4K screens, “next gen” game platform processors, “next gen” ultra-high rez games and 4K video. Game developers will catch up with the technology platforms now available to them and start developing extremely immersive high resolution games. Console titles like “Two Souls”, “Assassin’s Creed” are moving in this direction as are mobile games such as “Infinity Blade III” on iOS. Image: Wall Street Journal, Jan. 8, 2014gamerista (TM) (c) 2015 www.gamerista.net #2015gamescenarios
  35. 35. SEGWAY FOR THE EYES gamerista (TM) (c) 2015 www.gamerista.net Consumer virtual reality products reached the top of the “hype curve” last year but complete, whole product solutions have not yet successfully hit the market yet… No killer apps exist. It takes a complete ecosystem with a unified and compelling marketing, sales, and distribution”offer” to create an audience. To date, no major player has created one… #2015gamescenarios
  36. 36. JURY IS STILL OUTON VR EXPERIENCES Most all of the experiences being made for VR are short-form immersive explorations. None have any substantive user interaction capabilities or affordable cross-game devices. The VR “platform” will require a killer app experiences with an integrated application and platform solution made commercially available at a reasonable price. gamerista (TM) (c) 2015 www.gamerista.net Oculus Rift Oculus Gear Google Cardboard “Hi fi” “Low fi” Short Form Long Form AAA Console Mobile #2015gamescenarios
  37. 37. AUGMENTED REALITY EXPANDS gamerista (TM) (c) 2015 www.gamerista.net Microsoft Project Hololens #2015gamescenarios
  38. 38. GOGGLETAKES A MAGIC LEAP OVER GLASS gamerista (TM) (c) 2015 www.gamerista.net #2015gamescenarios
  39. 39. gamerista TM VIDEO GAME R & D DIGITAL VIDEO GAMES STRATEGY USER AND AUDIENCE EXPERIENCE TESTING & RESEARCH ADVANCED VIDEO GAME DEVELOPMENT DIGITAL VIDEO GAMES INDUSTRY ECOSYSTEMS MARKET RESEARCH FOR FURTHER INFORMATION gamerista TM STUDIO LAB AUSTIN STUDIOS RED BUILDING, #400 1901 E. 52nd. STREET AUSTIN, TEXAS 78723 +1.512.825.6866 - Direct +1.512.897.7100 - Main info@gamerista.net www.gamerista.net @thegamerista facebook.com/gamerista bhollyman@gamerista.net gamerista (TM) (c) 2015 www.gamerista.net

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