Brian Solis, Principal Analyst and Futurist
Altimeter, the digital analyst group at Prophet
@briansolis

Digital Darwinism
The evolution of society
and technology and its
impact on behavior,
expectations and customs.

Business “as usual” is an outdated experience. Modern
customers are connected and empowered. They want
things NOW in the moments that matter in the ways
they communicate, discover & connect.
NORMAL

Convenience Makes Fossil Fuels Relevant
Again

Your last car may already
be in your driveway.
The introduction of mass-produced, self-driving
vehicles will only exacerbate the need for subscription-

CLIMATE CHANGE IS
HERE. IT’S WHAT WE DO
AS ORGANIZATIONS,
CONSUMERS AND
HUMANS THAT DICTATES
THE FUTURE.

Transportation using fossil fuels are responsible for 25% -
33% of all energy related carbon dioxide emissions to the
atmosphere, growing faster than any other sector.

Will 2021 be the year when electric
and self-driving cars take over?
Enel and Ambrosetti estimate that
electric vehicles could represent
50%+ of cars sold globally by 2040.

Challenges facing e-mobility

The manufacture of electric vehicles uses significant energy.
Some estimate the impact on global warming at double the
production of conventional cars.
Until our electricity grids are running on 100% renewables,
calling EVs "zero-emissions" is not true.

Raise your hand if you support the environment.
Now, raise your hand if are going to switch to e-
mobility in the next 2 years and give up petrol.
Environment vs. Lifestyle

Price
Infrastructure
Range
Lifestyle Opportunity

Electric cars are sufficient for
more than 90%of all rides

Trends driving e-mobility

“We've reached the limit of
what's possible with diesel
and gasoline. The time has
come to move to a new
generation of technology.”

“The last kilometer” or “last mile”
has accelerated urban e-mobility.

Electric bikes are
currently the top-
selling EV worldwide.

A regular non-electric bike trip is less than 1.6km
An average Uber or Lyft trip is about 8km
The average number of miles with an e-bike is 4.35km.

Future roads for e-mobility

Have we reached “Peak Car?”
The average car is parked 95% of the time.

e-Sharing sets the stage for “mobility as a service.”

On-demand offerings ride-hailing and pooling services
Community mobility services
On-demand mobility services
Exploring mobility innovation
Pooling e-mobility re-imagined

Shared autonomous electric vehicle (SAEV)
fleets will account for nearly 25% of all auto
passenger miles traveled in the US by 2030.
- BCG

e-mobility opens the door for new relationships
between utilities and customers

Vehicle to grid (V2G), a new technology that transforms
the car into a mobile battery.
Cars can thus store energy during off-peak
consumption hours and return any excess energy later
when there is greater demand for it.

Battery prices are dropping while energy density is rising
Costs are also dropping for generating and storing
energy for renewables
LiDAR costs are decreasing making autonomous
possible for mainstream applications
Urban dwellers are early adopters and ready to experiment

Pillars of E-Mobility
Battery prices and innovation are the core of e-mobility
Infrastructure is essential to scale
Costs will steer adoption to ownership or sharing
Utilities will innovate and create new relationships
Lifestyle marketing is essential to driving adoption

Brian Solis
bsolis@prophet.com
Altimeter, the digital research group at Prophet
briansolis.com
@briansolis
Linkedin.com/influencer/briansolis
Facebook.com/thebriansolis