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Escaping the Flat Circle of Time: Hollywood and the Art of Future Insights
1.
Escaping the Flat Circle of Time
By
Dustin
Smith
W
ith
the
soaring
popularity
of
HBO’s
True
Detectives,
Nietzsche’s
doctrine
of
eternal
recurrence
has
once
again
gained
cultural
purchase.
In
Episode
Five,
Matthew
McConaughey’s
character
Rust
Cohle
muses:
"Someone
once
told
me
time
is
a
flat
circle.
Everything
we've
ever
done
or
will
do
we're
gonna
do
over
and
over
and
over
again."
Which,
to
the
clear-‐eyed,
sounds
like
the
86
iterations
of
The
Oscars1
ceremony:
the
same
story
arc,
starting
with
a
benign
comedic
monologue
and
minor
awards,
and
then
crescendoing
to
the
“In
Memoriam”
montage
and
Best
Picture
revelation.
But
the
formula
works.
It
“gets
the
ratings.”2
It
is
commercially
successful.3
Hollywood4
has
faltered,
however,
when
applying
that
same
logic
to
feature
films.
Chasing
blockbuster
hits,
the
studios
have
made
fewer,5
bigger6
films,
leaning
on
pulp
lit
(Twilight,
The
Hunger
Games),
fantasy
(The
Avengers,
Star
Trek),
and
action
(Gravity,
World
War
Z)
genres,
with
a
heavy
reliance
on
sequels
and
reboots.7
These
movies
are
easier
to
model
financially,
and
the
pressure
to
demonstrate
expected
returns
prior
to
“securing
financing”
for
films
is
enormous,
thus
the
appeal.
They
also
play
better
globally.
But
Hollywood
is
no
longer
a
monopolist
serving
a
disconnected,
culturally
starved
public.
We
swim
in
cheap,
abundant,
excellent,
on-‐demand
content,
with
ferocious
competition
for
our
attention.
We
are
part
of
a
vast,
complex,
globally
intertwined
culture
admixing
at
an
ever-‐increasing
clip.
The
model
of
blockbuster
mediocrities
shown
in
a
soda-‐glazed
multiplex
is
withering,
with
declining
profits8
as
testimony.
Cost-‐cutting9
will
allow
studios
to
stabilize
financially
and
placate
investors
in
the
short-‐term.
In
the
mid-‐term,
corporate
strategy
integrating
megatrends
such
as
Ubiquitous
Computing,
3D
Integration
and
User-‐Generated
Content
will
help
them
play
catch
up
(see
Comcast’s
move
to
release
films
on
the
The Innovation Quarterly (Winter 2014) | 1
2. same
day
as
theaters,10
for
example).
But
to
progress
beyond
incremental
improvements
and
toward
transformative
and
defensible
strategic
innovation
in
the
long-‐term,
studios
need
to
take
account
of
relevant
weak
signals,
the
emergent,
non-‐obvious
micro-‐trends
that
reveal
a
proprietary
view
of
the
future.
Weak Signals
Megatrends
have
been
validated
by
industry
experts
and
by
clear
supporting
data;
they
are
well-‐
known
and
defensible.
But
weak
signals
take
a
concerted
effort
to
gather,
to
ascertain
their
relative
plausibility,
to
synthesize.
Often
they’re
hidden
deep
in
extra-‐industry
trade
publications,
academic
journals,
and
the
technical
press,
as
well
as
social
media
conversations,
vlogs/blogs/Tumblr
posts,
the
comments
section
of
Amazon,
and
cultural
criticism.
By
way
of
example
(relevant
to
the
film
industry),
take
Netflix.
Initially
it
offered
no
innovation
in
content,
simply
better
distribution
than
Blockbuster.
But
now
Netflix
produces
original
series
such
as
House
of
Cards,
explicitly
taking
advantage
of
streaming
(and
human
weakness).
Described
by
The
New
Yorker
culture
critic
Emily
Nussbaum
as
“hypnotic,
highbrow,
empty
calories,”
Netflix
made
all
12
Season
Two
episodes
available
on
the
premiere
date:
“House
of
Cards
really
is
designed
to
be
binge-‐watched,
by
which
I
mean
consumed
so
quickly
there
is
no
time
to
taste
all
the
garbage
we
are
guzzling
down
alongside
those
delicious
and
sneering
putdowns.”
Willa
Paskin,11
Slate
Other
examples
include
Kickstarter
and
YouTube:
• After
the
Veronica
Mars
TV
show
was
cancelled
in
2003,
creator
Rob
Thomas
shopped
around
a
movie
but
couldn’t
get
funding.
In
2013
he
mounted
a
Kickstarter
campaign12
that
netted
over
$5.7M,
drawn
from
over
71,000
“backers.”
• PewDiePie13
(PEW-‐dee-‐py),
a
24-‐year-‐old
Swede,
has
more
than
24
million
subscribers
to
his
YouTube
channel
(about
one
percent
of
all
Internet
users)
and
is
projected
to
make
$2.8
million
over
the
next
four
months
from
related
ad
revenue.
His
main
attraction:
watching
him
play
video
games.
With
hundreds
more
of
these
weak
signals,
clusters
emerge,
indicating
hotter,
more
promising
areas
of
inquiry.
The
three
examples
above
may
well
presage
a
more
personal,
more
participatory
entertainment
experience.
Then
again,
perhaps
not;
upon
a
more
intense
search,
one
could
find
The Innovation Quarterly (Winter 2014) | 2
3. stronger
evidence
to
the
contrary
and
abandon
that
hypothesis.
But
the
overall
intention
is
to
weave
a
tapestry
of
the
megatrends
and
the
weak
signals
into
a
coherent
depiction
of
a
plausible
future,
which
we
call
future
insights.
Future Insights
Swiftly
evolving
technologies,
global
connectivity,
and
increasing
complexity
all
contribute
to
uncertainty
and
risk
for
decision-‐makers.
To
thrive
in
this
environment,
evidence-‐supported
future
insights
can
help
articulate
a
future
against
which
one
can
weigh
decisions,
to
inform
anticipatory
actions.
A
few
key
tenets
of
a
good
future
insights
process:
1. Cultivate
and
curate
knowledge.
Read
and
watch
everything
of
interest
to
your
domain:
blogs,
Amazon
comments,
interviews,
screenshots,
articles,
books,
Tweets,
academic
papers.
Pull
in
data
feeds.
Snip
whatever
you
find
interesting
(we
use
Diigo
and
other
tools).
2. Build
a
“community
of
interest.”
Engage
with
individuals
and
organizations
with
intelligent
things
to
say
about
your
domain.
This
may
well
include
non-‐traditional
“intentional
communities”
with
customers
and
other
stakeholders.
3. Create
future
scenarios
and
stories.
A
combination
of
plausible
future
states
(drawn
from
megatrends
and
weak
signals)
and
likely
implications
supports
an
easily
communicated
narrative.
4. Establish
your
“beacons
out
in
time.”
Given
the
stories,
what
are
signals
or
indicators
of
change?
Ideally
you
have
“trip
points”
that
spur
action:
investment,
further
study,
project
greenlighting,
etc.
5. Review,
debate,
and
revise.
Put
time
on
the
calendar
to
review
assumptions,
key
questions,
stories,
and
beacons.
Developing
future
scenario
models
extends
a
firm’s
purview
beyond
its
industry
as
it
exists
today,
articulating
a
plausible
world
in
which
envisioned
innovations
can
be
tried
and
tested.
It
spurs
opportunity
discovery
and
enhances
opportunity
development.
It
affords
decision-‐makers
better
communication
tools
and
clearer
insights
into
where
to
allocate
time
and
resources,
with
a
higher
level
of
confidence.
It
is
an
essential
component
of
strategic
innovation.
Large
organizations
such
as
the
“Big
Six”
film
studios
boast
inherent
advantages
of
scale,
access
to
capital,
brand
equity,
and
a
cultivated
talent
base.
But
in
the
face
of
rapid
change,
they
risk
ossification
and
irrelevance.
As
a
corrective,
future
insights-‐supported
strategic
innovation
allows
firms
to
remain
plastic
and
nimble
enough
to
take
advantage
of
the
next
big
opportunity.
The Innovation Quarterly (Winter 2014) | 3
4. At
its
best,
Hollywood
has
told
us
beautiful
and
terrible
truths,
beautiful
and
terrible
lies.
This
only
makes
the
prospect14
of
Fast
and
Furious
8
more
crushing.
We
hope
Hollywood
takes
heed
and
soon
escapes
the
flat
circle
of
time.
NOTES:
1
Incidentally,
McConaughey
received
the
2014
Best
Actor
award
for
his
role
in
Dallas
Buyers
Club.
th
The
86
Academy
Awards
drew
43M
views,
the
highest
total
viewership
in
14
years,
up
from
40.4M
in
2013.
3
Ostensibly
The
Oscars
ought
to
recognize
artistic
merit,
absent
commercial
appeal.
But
Raymond
Chandler’s
1948
critique
sounds
as
fresh
as
ever:
“It
doesn’t
really
seem
to
make
much
difference
how
the
voting
is
done.
The
quality
of
the
work
is
still
only
recognized
in
the
context
of
success.
A
superb
job
in
a
flop
picture
would
get
you
nothing,
a
routine
job
in
a
winner
will
be
voted
in.
It
is
against
this
background
of
success-‐worship
that
the
voting
is
done.”
4
When
referring
to
“the
studios,”
or
“Hollywood,”
we
mean
the
six
“MPAA
member
studios”:
Disney,
Paramount,
Sony,
Fox,
Universal,
and
Warner
Bros.
They
boast
over
80%
market
share
and
are
still
gaining.
5
MPAA
studio
releases
are
down
29%,
comparing
2012
to
2003,
and
down
9%
from
2012
to
2011.
The
Writers
Guild
of
America,
a
key
supplier
to
the
studios,
on
the
effects
of
fewer
films:
“This
means
more
competition
between
writers
and
the
pressures
become
enormous.
In
this
type
of
environment
screenwriters
rightly
feel
like
they
are
being
exploited.
I’ve
had
to
do
free
rewrites,
often
been
expected
to
start
work
before
any
type
of
payment
is
made,
and
I’ve
frequently
been
paid
late
by
major
studios.
I
think
those
qualify
as
symptoms
of
business
conditions
in
decline.”
6
“Hollywood
economics
have
been
strained
by
movie
budgets
that
have
been
rising
steadily
over
the
past
couple
of
decades.
To
cut
costs,
some
studios
have
dropped
smaller
budget
movies
with
big-‐name,
expensive
actors,
but
kept
making
summer
blockbusters
based
on
franchises
such
as
superheroes.”
Ryan
Nakashima,
Huffington
Post
7
Fourteen
out
of
the
top
20
films
were
sequels
or
reboots.
8
Five
out
of
the
six
majors
posted
profit
declines
in
2012,
with
Disney
down
17.2%
and
Sony
down
43.1%.
9
“Sony
Entertainment
Is
Said
to
Hire
Bain
&
Company
for
Cost-‐Cutting.”
10
Comcast
began
this
battle
with
theater
operators
in
2007.
11
Full
article
here.
12
The
Veronica
Mars
Kickstarter
has
reached
its
goal,
but
scroll
down
to
find
project
updates
from
Rob
Thomas.
13
From
PewDiePie’s
YouTube
homepage,
a
video-‐game
playthrough
and
“Pewds
Does
Everything”
would
be
most
representative.
And
here’s
a
piece
on
how
“Pewds”
is
dealing
with
the
runaway
subscriber
base.
14
“Kurt
Russell,
on
the
other
hand,
has
already
mentioned
that
he
would
like
to
sign
up
for
Fast
8,
after
they
finish
this
one.”
Shane
Jordan,
Classicalite
2
The Innovation Quarterly (Winter 2014) | 4
