OSDGB2

1. Shewhart’s Control Chart Philosophy
Lean Six Sigma
Normal Distribution Run Chart
104
103
102
101
100
99
98
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Control Chart _
105
104
X + 3s
103
102
_
Mean = X
101
100
99 _
98
97 X - 3s
96
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
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2. Run Chart
Lean Six Sigma
 Shows how the process varies over time
 Shifts, trends, intermittent problems and cyclic patterns
can be detected
 Vertical-axis is the unit of measure; horizontal-axis is
time
 A baseline average or current average line can be used
as a point-of-reference to detect process changes
 When the Run Chart p-values are greater than alpha (e.g.
.05), the characteristic of interest is not statistically
significant.
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3. Run Chart Procedure
Lean Six Sigma
 Gather data over time in sequence
 Create a graph with a vertical line and a horizontal line
 The vertical line should cover the full range of measurements
 The horizontal line should cover the time period which the data was
collected
 Add a baseline (using prior data) or average (current data) line to
indicate process location (mean)
 Plot the data on the graph connecting the points
 Interpret the chart
 Look for trends, patterns and/or unusual data points
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4. Run Chart
Lean Six Sigma
 Go to the Stat menu: TASK: Create Run Chart for Cycle
Time
 Go to Quality Tools
Select Cycle Time as Single column box
 Select Run Chart Set Subgroup Size to 1
Click OK
Alternate to Time Series Plots
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5. Run Chart
Lean Six Sigma
To create a run
chart in EXCEL,
highlight the
data (sorted in P-Values less
time order than the α-level
sequence) then (.05) indicate
select INSERT, statistical
Line Chart, 2 significance.
lines 5 UNCLASSIFIED

6. Exercise:
Exercise: Run Chart
Lean Six Sigma
 Using the data from Round 1 - create a Run Chart of your
simulation data cycle time
 Results?
10 minutes
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7. Two Types of Variation
Lean Six Sigma
 Two types of variation are visible in a Control Chart:
Special Cause Common Cause
Something different happening Always present to some
at a certain time and place degree in the process
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8. Control Charts
Lean Six Sigma
Region of Non-Random Variation Upper
Control
Limit
Process
Average
Lower
Control
Region of Non-Random Variation Limit
Data Over Time
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9. Control Chart
Lean Six Sigma
UCL= 14380
LCL= 3351
UCL= 6775
LCL= 0
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10. Control Charts
Lean Six Sigma
Definition: A Time Series plot that shows control limits at both +3σ
and -3σ from the mean
 Go back to the catapult data worksheet
 Go to Stat menu > Control Charts > Variables Charts for Individuals > Individuals
 Click inside the Variables dialog box > select T1-Distance
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11. Control Charts
Lean Six Sigma
RESULTS:
I Chart of T1-Distance
170
UCL=167.20
160
150
Individual Value
140
_
X=133.75
130
120
110
100 LCL=100.30
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19
Observation
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12. Control Charts
Lean Six Sigma
TASK: Remake plot with separate control limits for each team member:
 On the toolbar click the icon “Bring up last dialog box” (#9) or use “Control-E”
 Click on I Chart Options > Go to Stages tab
 Click on the Define Stages box > select Team Member
 Click OK twice
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13. Control Charts
Lean Six Sigma
RESULTS:
I Chart of T1-Distance by Team Member
1 2 3 4
200
UCL=189.6
180
Individual Value
160
_
140 X=140.4
120
100
LCL=91.2
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19
Observation
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14. Control Charts
Lean Six Sigma
Control charts are simple run charts with
Zone A
105 statistically generated limits!
UCL
104
Zone B
103
Zone C
102
101 Center Line
100
Zone C
99 Zone B
LCL
98
97 Zone A
96
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
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15. Out of Control Conditions: Extreme Points
Lean Six Sigma
 Out of control conditions are frequently detected by
the extreme point condition
2 Out of 3 Points on same side
Extreme Point (1 Point Beyond UCL of average in Zone A or Beyond
or LCL)
UCL UCL
A
B
C
CL X
C
B
A
LCL LCL
Note that the out of control point is always circled
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16. Out of Control Conditions: Extreme Points
Lean Six Sigma
4 Out of 5 Points on the same side of the average in
Zone B or Beyond
UCL
A
B
C
X
C
B
A
LCL
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17. Out of Control Conditions: Trends & Shifts
Lean Six Sigma
Trend (6 Points in a Row Process Shift (9 Points in a
Steadily Increasing or Row on one side of the
Decreasing) average)
UCL UCL
CL CL
LCL LCL
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18. Out of Control Conditions: Oscillation
Lean Six Sigma
15 Successive Points Alternating
Oscillation
Up and Down in Zone C (above
(14 Successive Points
and below the average)
Alternating Up and Down)
UCL UCL
A
B
C
CL X
C
B
A
LCL LCL
Possible Cause(s): Overcontrol of the process, e.g., adjusting the machine after almost
every piece. Two different processes occurring simultaneously, two different machines,
two different operators, etc.
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19. Control Charts
Lean Six Sigma
 For Variable data, three basic pairs of charts exist:
1. I,MR: Individual and Moving Range
2. Xbar,R: Average and Range
3. Xbar,S: Average and Standard Deviation
If the Range/Moving Range chart is in control, you can then use the Xbar chart.
 For Attributes data, four basic charts exist:
1. nP: Number chart
Control Charts can be
2. P: Proportions chart produced in EXCEL using
3. C: Count chart Control Chart templates posted
to DEPMS.
4. U: Rate
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20. Continuous Data Control Charts
Lean Six Sigma
Measurement
(Continuous/Variable Data)
Subgroup Size of 1 Subgroup Size 3-9 Subgroup Size > 9
I-MR Xbar-R Xbar-S
•Process with few data points •Monitors repetitive Similar to Xbar-R Chart
•Sampling is very expensive processes Larger sample sizes
•Sampling is by destructive testing •Practictioners frequently
•Building data to begin another choose subgroups of 5
chart type
Stat > Control Charts > Variable Stat > Control Charts > Variable Charts for Subgroups
Charts for Individuals > I-MR, Xbar-R, Enter variable Xbar-S , Enter variable
Enter variable and subgroup size and subgroup size
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21. What do you do first?
Lean Six Sigma
Since Moving Range Chart is out of control, investigate these out of control points
first to determine cause.
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22. Attribute Control Charts
Lean Six Sigma
Yes/No Are the Data Count
Yes/No or count?
Is the area
Is sample of opportunity
size constant? constant from sample
to sample?
yes no yes no
Choose Choose
np chart or p chart p chart Choose
c chart or u chart Choose
5  n p  50 5  n p  50 u chart
5  c  50
and and
or 5  n u  50 5  n u  50
5  n ( 1  p )  50 5  n ( 1  p )  50
MINITAB: Stat > Control Charts > Attribute Charts > Select Type of Chart
Enter variable of interest and subgroup size, Click OK
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23. Exercise:
Exercise: Control Chart
Lean Six Sigma
 What type of Control Chart should you use to assess the
Round 1 simulation ?
 Using the data from Round 1 - create a Control Chart of
your simulation data cycle time
 Results?
10 minutes
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24. Takeaways
Lean Six Sigma
 When a process is “in control”
 This implies a stable, predictable amount of variation
(common cause variation)
 This does not mean a “good” or desirable amount of
variation
 When a process is “out-of-control”
 This implies an unstable, unpredictable amount of variation
 It is subject to both common AND special causes of
variation
 A process can be in statistical control and not
capable of consistently producing good output
within specification limit.
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25. Process Capability
Lean Six Sigma
 Once a process is in statistical control, you want to
determine if it is Capable -- Is it meeting specification
limits and producing “good” or satisfactory services or
deliverables?
 You can determine capability by computing the # of
Defects per Unit, Defects Per Opportunity and Defects
Per Million Opportunities, and Rolled Throughput
Yield.
 You can also determine capability by comparing the
width of the Process Variation (Voice of the Process) with
the width of the specification limits (Voice of the
Customer).
 Measure the # of standard deviations that fit between the
Process mean and the closest specification limit to derive the
sigma level. 25 UNCLASSIFIED

26. Exercise 1A
Lean Six Sigma
Purchase Requests Processed
Navy Army
What can we
Mon 89 91 say about the
Tue 70 102 performance
Wed 100 103 of these two
Services with
Thur 121 105 respect to their
Fri 120 99 means?
X
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27. Exercise 1A
Lean Six Sigma
Purchase Requests Processed
Navy Army
The Services
Mon 89 91 are equal in
Tue 70 102 performance,
but is there
Wed 100 103 more to the
Thur 121 105 story?
Fri 120 99
X 100 100
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28. Exercise 1B
Lean Six Sigma
Purchase Requests Processed
What can we say
Navy Army about the
Mon 89 91 performance
variation
Tue 70 102 of these two
Wed 100 103 Services?
Thur 121 105
Fri 120 99

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29. Exercise 1B
Lean Six Sigma
Purchase Requests Processed
Navy Army
Navy is much more
Mon 89 91 varied. What are
Tue 70 102 the implications?
Wed 100 103
Thur 121 105
Fri 120 99
 21.6 5.5
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30. Measures of Performance
Lean Six Sigma
 If we know the process mean and the process sigma,
then we can describe the performance of the process.
 But:
 How do we know if the process performance is good or bad?
 Who should determine if performance is good enough?
?
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31. Customer Specifications
Lean Six Sigma
• The specification limits
represent the parameters of LSL Target USL
performance desired by the
customer.
• The Upper Spec Limit (USL)
& Lower Spec Limit (LSL)
represent the level of
tolerance around this
desired target.
• Together, they represent
what the customer wants!
Not what the process does.
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32. Sigma Level
Lean Six Sigma
Sigma Level (or Z-value): the number of Sigma between the
process mean and the nearest specification limit
 If we know:
 The Mean of the process +
 The s of the process +
 The Specifications set by
Mean Target
the customer -3 -2 -1 1 2 3 4 5
 Then:
 We can determine the Sigma
Level of the process
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33. A 3s Process
3s
Lean Six Sigma
-6s -5s -4s -3s -2s -1s Mean 1s 2s 3s 4s 5s 6s
LSL Mean USL
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34. A 6s Process
6s
Lean Six Sigma
-6s -5s -4s -3s -2s -1s Mean 1s 2s 3s 4s 5s 6s
LSL Mean USL
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35. Sigma Level Example
Lean Six Sigma
 What is the sigma level of this process?
-3 -2 -1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
LSL Mean USL
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36. Sigma Level Example
Lean Six Sigma
-3 -2 -1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
LSL Mean USL
USL - Mean = 9
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37. Sigma Level Example
Lean Six Sigma
-3 -2 -1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
LSL Mean USL
Mean - LSL = 3
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38. Sigma Level Example
Lean Six Sigma
-3 -2 -1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
LSL Mean USL
• The “Process Sigma” is:
• The lesser of (USL-Mean) & (Mean-LSL) stated in units of s
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39. Sigma Level Formula
Lean Six Sigma
 The Sigma level of a process is the lesser of:
or
USL  X X  LSL
 
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40. Measures of Performance
Lean Six Sigma
 Recall the Army and Navy
processing rates
Purchase Requests Processed
Navy Army
 Assume:
Mon 89 91
o LSL = 70 documents per day
 to keep up with incoming rate Tue 70 102
o USL = 130 documents per day Wed 100 103
 To keep from “overfeeding” the
processor which would result in
Thur 121 105
a higher error rate Fri 120 99
 What are the sigma levels for  21.6 5.5
each of these?
 What are the implications?
40 UNCLASSIFIED

41. Measures of Performance
Lean Six Sigma
NAVY ARMY
Upper Sigma Level: Upper Sigma Level:
USL  X 130  100 USL  X 130  100
  1.4   5 .5
 21.6  5.5
Lower Sigma Level: Lower Sigma Level:
X  LSL 100  70 X  LSL 100  70
  1 .4   5.5
 21.6  5.5
Sigma Level: 1.4 Sigma Level: 5.5
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42. Which would you prefer?
Lean Six Sigma
-6s -5s -4s -3s -2s -1s Mean 1s 2s 3s 4s 5s 6s
NAVY
The target is missed
more than 15% of
the time
LSL Mean USL
-6s -5s -4s -3s -2s -1s Mean 1s 2s 3s 4s 5s 6s
ARMY
The target is usually
never missed?
42 LSL Mean USL UNCLASSIFIED

43. Different Sigma Process Levels
Lean Six Sigma
3s Process
-6s-5s-4s-3s-2s-1s 1s 2s 3s 4s 5s 6s
LSL Mean USL
6s Process -6s-5s-4s-3s-2s-1s 1s 2s 3s 4s 5s 6s
LSL Mean USL
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44. Importance of Reducing Variation
Lean Six Sigma
• To increase a process sigma level, you have to decrease
variation. Too early Too late Too early Too late
Defects Defects
Reduce
variation
Delivery Time
Delivery Time
Spread of variation Spread of variation
too wide compared narrow compared to
to specifications specifications
• Less variation provides:
 Greater reliability in the process
 Less waste and rework, which lowers costs
 Products and services that perform better and last longer
 Happier customers
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45. Improvement-
Improvement-Focused Scale
Lean Six Sigma
DPMO s
Increase in
Sigma 308,537 2
requires
exponential 66,807 3
defect
reduction 6,210 4
233 5
3.4 6
Defects per Process
Million Capability
Opportunities
“trim the fat” (distribution shifted ±1.5s)
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46. Additional Metrics of Six Sigma
Lean Six Sigma
 In addition to Sigma Level, four other performance
metrics are of interest:
 Defects Per Unit (DPU)
 Process Capability
 Defects Per Million Opportunities (DPMO)
 Rolled Throughput Yield
 If you know one…
you can determine the others
Suduko
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47. Defectives & Defects
Lean Six Sigma
 A defective unit is that which fails to
meet customer requirements or
standards
 Late order, incorrect invoice, short-count,
etc.
 A defect is any reason for such a
failure
 Not filed correctly, incorrect line item,
transposed numbers, etc.
 A defective unit can have more than
one defect
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48. Process Capability - DPU
Lean Six Sigma
 Defects Per Unit (DPU) – the average number of
defects, of all types, over the total number of units
produced
 Unit is the item being processed
o (order, invoice, form, plate, etc.)
DPU = Total Number Defects
Total Number Units
Processed
48 UNCLASSIFIED

49. DPU Example
Lean Six Sigma
 In one month, 220 reports were
sampled after being sent to
customers
 Among the 220 reports, 344
line items were found incorrect
(defects)
Unit = Report
DPU = 344 incorrect line items
/ 220 Reports
= 1.56
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50. Process Capability – DPO, DPMO, SL
Lean Six Sigma
 If you were checking 4 fields on
each report, and each field DPO =Total Number Defects
represented an opportunity for a Total Number Opportunities
for Defect
defect, then the Defects Per
Opportunity (DPO) would be
344 / (220 * 4) = 344/880= .39
 Convert DPO to Defects per
Million Opportunities by
DPMO = DPO * 1,000,000
multiplying DPO by a million.
DPMO = 390,000
 Convert DPMO to Sigma Level SL = NORMSINV(1-(DPMO/1000000))+1.5
(SL) using chart or formula or
Sigma Level = 1.78 SL= NORMSINV(1 – DPO)+1.5
50 UNCLASSIFIED

51. Process Capability - RTY
Lean Six Sigma
 Rolled Throughput Yield Process A has 4 steps:
(RTY) is the probability that  Step 1, 100 units enter, 10 are
a single unit can pass scrapped and 5 are reworked to get
through a series of process 90. Yield = (100- (10+5)) / 100 = .85
steps free of defects.  Step 2, 90 units in from Step 1, 10
scrapped and 7 are reworked to get
5 rework 80. (90-(10+7))/90 = .81
100 Step 1  Step 3, 80 units in from Step 2, 5
7 rework scrapped and 3 reworked to get 75.
90 Step 2 (80-(5+3))/80 = .9
3 rework  Step 4, 75 units in, 5 scrapped and
80 Step 3 10 rework 10 reworked to get 70. (75-(5+10)/75
10 10
= .8
5 75 Step 4
 RTY = .85 * .81 * .9 * .8 = .49572
5
SCRAP
70 = 50% yield
51 UNCLASSIFIED

52. Process Capability
Lean Six Sigma
- Example -
Process Capability of Delivery Time P otential (Within) C apability
 266 data points Cp 1.16
LSL Target USL
collected between 11/1/04 C PL 2.22
C PU 0.10
thru 11/30/04 Within C pk 0.10
Ov erall
 Mean 29 days, St. Dev. C C pk 1.16
2.9 days, CP is 1.16 O v erall C apability
indicating process needs Pp 1.24
PPL 2.37
centering to the LSL of 10 PPU 0.11
and USL of 30 days. Cpk P pk 0.11
is .1 indicating that the C pm 0.35
process is exceeding the P rocess Data
LS L 10
USL. Target 20
 With an overall PPM of USL 30
S ample M ean 29.1203
371,895 defects per S ample N 266
million opportunity, the S tDev (Within) 2.87033
current process has a S tDev (O v erall) 2.69154
Sigma Quality Level of 1.8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36
or a 62% yield O bserv ed P erformance E xp. Within P erformance E xp. O v erall P erformance
P P M < LS L 0.00 PPM < LS L 0.00 P P M < LS L 0.00
P P M > U S L 281954.89 PPM > U S L 379619.67 P P M > U S L 371895.18
P P M Total 281954.89 PPM Total 379619.67 P P M Total 371895.18
52 Required Deliverable UNCLASSIFIED

53. Class Exercise
Lean Six Sigma
 What measure(s) would you use to compute process
capability for the simulation?
 How capable is Round 1 Simulation?
10 minutes
53 UNCLASSIFIED

54. Process Map or Flowchart
Lean Six Sigma
 A Pictorial Representation of a Process
 Identifies Inputs (X) and Outputs (Y)
 Identifies Current Data Collection Points
 Categorizes Inputs (X)
 Defines Process Boundaries
 Identifies customers and suppliers
 Points out discrepancies in the process
 Points out inefficiencies in the process
 Determines Value-Added and Non-Value-Added Steps
 Initiates standardization of procedures
54 UNCLASSIFIED

55. Why Map the Current State?
Lean Six Sigma
 To show process simply and visually
 To clarify organization’s understanding of how the
current process actually operates
 To create baseline for future improvements to be
made and measured
A current state map is a pictorial view showing how material
and information currently flow.
55 UNCLASSIFIED

56. Process Mapping - Basic Steps
Lean Six Sigma
1: SIPOC
2: BOUNDARIES See the
3: VOICE OF THE CUSTOMER Process …
4: GATHER APPROPIATE INFORMATION
5: WALK THE PROCESS
See the 6: CREATE CURRENT STATE MAP
Waste … 7: SPAGHETTI MAP / CIRCLE DIAGRAM
8: VALUE ANALYSIS
Visualize the Perfect
9: CREATE IDEAL STATE MAP
State …
10: DEVELOP FUTURE STATE MAP
Lead the Way
11: DEVELOP ACTION PLAN
toward it …
12: IMPLEMENT THE PLAN
Photo source: Raytheon
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57. Process Map Procedure
Lean Six Sigma
 Symbols to know:
Process
Start/End Decision Flow
Step
 Determine the start and finish of the process you are
charting
 Define how the process actually works, step by step, in
detail
 Use observation, recorders, etc.
 Add inputs and outputs
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58. Simple Process Map
Lean Six Sigma
• Describes the high-level steps followed day in and day out
Start Step 1 Decision Step 2
Yes
No
End
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59. Always Keep in Mind…
Lean Six Sigma
There are usually 3 versions of each Process Map
What you Believe it is... What it Actually is... What you Want it to be...
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60. SIPOC
Lean Six Sigma
SIPOC: The starting point for any process map
S I P O C
Suppliers Inputs Process Outputs Customers
Process
Map
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61. Walk the Process
Lean Six Sigma
 Visualize yourself in the place of the product /
information
 Walk the process backwards (from last step to
first) OR forwards (from first step to last)
 Interview personnel who touch the process
(look for problems that may be occurring)
 Measure people and/or product travel distances
 Look for constraints in the system (shared
resources)
 Look for 8 types of wastes
61 UNCLASSIFIED

62. Creating a Useful Process Map
Lean Six Sigma
Step 1: At an actionable level, define the boundaries of the process you
need to improve
Step 2: Identify all operations needed in the production of a product or
service. At each step include:
 Cycle time
 Quality levels
Step 3: Identify each operation above as value-added or non-value-
added. A value-added operation “transforms the product in a way
meaningful to the customer”
Step 4: List both internal and external Ys at each process step
(continued)
62 UNCLASSIFIED

63. Creating a Useful Process Map
Lean Six Sigma
Step 5: List both internal and external Xs at each process step
Step 6: Classify all Xs as one or more of the following:
 Controllable (C): Inputs you can adjust or control while the process is running
o Examples: Speed, feed rate, temperature, pressure
 Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs): Common sense things you always
do because they make sense
o Just because it is in a procedure --does not mean it is an SOP
o Procedures can be used to specify set-points of controllable parameters
o Examples: Cleaning, safety, loading components, setup
 Noise (N): Things you cannot control or do not want to control (too expensive
or too difficult)
o Examples: Ambient temperature, humidity, operator
(continued)
63 UNCLASSIFIED

64. Creating a Useful Process Map
Lean Six Sigma
Step 7: Document any known operating specification for each input and
output
 What are the operational requirements of the process?
 Examples: Obligation Rate 8% per month
EOD (End of Day) +/- 1 day
Recon Imagery Resolution +/- 1 meter
Step 8: Clearly identify all process data collection points
 What are the DPUs of the various process steps?
 What is the Rolled Throughput Yield (RTY) of the Process?
RTY = FPY Step 1 x FPY Step 2 x FPY Step 3 …. x FPY Step n
64 UNCLASSIFIED

65. Mapping Tips
Lean Six Sigma
 Use Post-it® notes on butcher paper.
 Place top of process boxes just below the middle
of the page.
 Leave enough room between process boxes to
show inventory.
 Decide whether to count all parts or just a sample
part – make the assumptions up front.
 Draw only one to three main suppliers/supplied
items.
 Title and date map.
65 UNCLASSIFIED

66. Current State Maps
Lean Six Sigma
Value Stream Map
Circle Diagram Spaghetti Diagram
Main Material
Tech W/C 51A/B
CRANE ISEA Technician
51E
SUPPLY Paint
PAINT
C.O.
Booth
BOOTH
N OFFICE
DAAS D TOOL
I
NDI
NDI ROOM Office Strip
DEPT Tank
SNAP AWP/RMS
HEAD STRIP
ROOM
STOCK
SK POINT
SAFETY
BO1
DOCKSIDE 520
PEO
SUPV P.C.PC
PC
IWS2 51D
66 UNCLASSIFIED

67. Data Blocks
Lean Six Sigma
Place a data block under each step in the process.
step number:
Process Description:
Demand: How many items the customer wants per ___
Trigger: What tells you to begin this step?
Done: What tells you the step is finished?
Flow Time Entire time it takes to complete step? (8 hours @ day & FLOW TIME)
Touch TIme: Meets all three Criteria for VA
People: Number of people required to complete the step?
Shifts: How many places this step is performed
No. Defects: Number of defects per unit time (% defective may also be accepted)
WIP: How many items have been started but not completed
WIQ: How many items waiting to start
Use standard method for all data blocks. This could be Personnel
Distance Traveled: Product travel.
or
Changeover: Time between last step of current job to first step of next job
Flow Stoppers: Problems that keep you from doing your job
67 UNCLASSIFIED

68. Exercise
Lean Six Sigma
 Draw a current process map based upon Round 1
simulation.
 Annotate data blocks
18 minutes
68 UNCLASSIFIED

69. Measure Tollgate Questions
Lean Six Sigma
 Has an overarching Value Stream Map been completed with data to better
understand the process and problem, and show where root causes might reside?
 Has the team conducted a value-added and cycle time analysis, identifying areas
where time and resources are devoted to tasks not critical to the customer?
 Has the team identified specific input, process and output measures needing to be
collected for both effectiveness and efficiency categories?
 Has the team developed clear, unambiguous operational definitions for each
measurement and tested them with others to ensure clarity and consistency?
 Has a clear, reasonable choice been made between gathering new data or taking
advantage of existing data already collected by the organization?
 Has an appropriate sample size and sampling frequency been established to ensure
valid representation of the process we are measuring?
 Has the measurement system been checked for repeatability and reproducibility,
potentially including training data collectors?
 Has the team developed and tested data collection forms or check sheets?
 Has baseline performance and process capability been established? How large is
the gap between current performance and customer requirements?
69 UNCLASSIFIED

70. What We Have Covered
Lean Six Sigma
 Data – types, collection plans
 Data measures – mean, median, standard deviation
 Minitab familiarization
 Sampling – reasons, types, computing sample size
 Measurement System Analysis - purpose,
components
 Normality of data
 Run Charts
 Control Charts
 Process Capability
 Process Mapping
70 UNCLASSIFIED

71. Lean Six Sigma
Define
Measure
Analyze
Improve
Analyze
Control
71 UNCLASSIFIED

72. Learning Objectives
Lean Six Sigma
 Learn and apply analytical and graphical techniques for
identifying the potential root causes of a problem
72 UNCLASSIFIED

73. Searching for Xs
Lean Six Sigma
 The primary focus of the analyze phase is to separate
the Critical Few from the Trivial Many
 In short: What is driving our deficiency or variation?
All Possible Xs Probable Xs
73 UNCLASSIFIED

74. Root Cause
Lean Six Sigma
 Why find the root cause of a defect?
 Eliminate the root cause, not the symptom
 Problem doesn't show up again
 Corrective action must:
 Ensure that the error is physically prevented from occurring again
 Prevents a defect loop
74 UNCLASSIFIED

75. Root Cause Analysis
Lean Six Sigma
 Cause and Effect may be separated by Time, Logical
Flow and Location.
 A Cause/Effect relationship is one-way.
 The Effect is not the Cause!
Cause Effect
Time - Logical Flow - Location
75 UNCLASSIFIED

76. Root Cause Analysis
Lean Six Sigma
EFFECT
A single Cause can have
multiple Effects. CAUSE EFFECT
EFFECT
CAUSE
CAUSE EFFECT A single Effect can have
multiple Causes.
CAUSE
76 UNCLASSIFIED

77. Tools for Root Cause
Lean Six Sigma
 Process:
 Five Whys
 Fishbone / Ishakawa / Cause and Effect Diagram
 XY Matrix
 Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA)
 Graphical:
 Pareto Charts
 Scatter Diagram
 Box Plots
77 UNCLASSIFIED

78. 5 Whys
Lean Six Sigma
 Technique to get from symptom to root cause
 Asking “Why?” as many as five times to get to root cause
 By identifying root cause we can take action to prevent
recurrence
78 UNCLASSIFIED

79. Root Cause Analysis – 5 Why’s
Lean Six Sigma
Why?
Why?
Root
Cause
Why?
EFFECT CAUSE
Why?
EFFECT CAUSE
Why?
EFFECT CAUSE
EFFECT CAUSE
EFFECT CAUSE
79 UNCLASSIFIED

80. Root Cause
Lean Six Sigma
Granite on the Jefferson Memorial is deteriorating.
Why?
Use of harsh chemicals
Why?
To clean pigeon droppings
Why?
Lots of spiders at monument
Why?
Lots of gnats to eat
Why?
Gnats are attracted to the light at dusk
Solution: Turn on the lights at a iSixSigma.com
later time. 80 UNCLASSIFIED

81. 5 Whys: Late UFRs
Lean Six Sigma
Late BRC
Charts
WHY?
Incomplete Late UFRs Software
UFRs problem
WHY?
WHY?
Handling Written with
Did Not Damage Bug
Did Not Late Receipt
Follow Read from Field
Directions Directions WHY? WHY?
WHY? WHY?
Untested
Not Written Typo
Operational Ambitious program
Clearly
WHY? Mission Schedule
No Format
WHY? Packaging
Error
No One
Assigned to
WHY?
Develop
81 UNCLASSIFIED

82. Fishbone Diagram Procedure
Lean Six Sigma
 Write the problem (effect or “Y”) in a box on the right side with an
arrow entering from the left
 Generate a list of causes that potentially create the problem
 Organize the causes into categories
 Place causes on the fishbone by category
 Breakdown the causes into smaller components by asking “Why?”
 Add to fishbone
 Examine for patterns, root causes, data needs
82 UNCLASSIFIED

83. Cause and Effect Diagram
Lean Six Sigma
Look for causes
Repeat for Each Main Cause
that appear Suggested Causes:
repeatedly across
major cause Man
categories. Main Cause I Method
Machine
Main Cause II Material
Measurement
Mother Nature
B
C
Problem
A
A
Main Cause III
Main Cause V Main Cause IV
83 UNCLASSIFIED

84. Fishbone Diagrams
Lean Six Sigma
Pick one main cause and ask “Why did cause A
occur?”
 Results in causes A1, A2, A3, etc.
Work one Main Cause I
category at
a time…
please!
Why did cause “A” occur?
A
A1
Problem A2
A3
84 UNCLASSIFIED

85. Fishbone Diagrams
Lean Six Sigma
Pick one cause and ask “Why?” 5 times.
 End result is a probable cause
Main Cause I
Ask “Why?”
5 times?
Why A?
A Why A2A1? A2A1A
A2A
Probable
Problem A2 A2A1A1
Cause
Why A2A? A2A1 Why A2A1A?
Repeat Cycle of Questions for Each Main Cause
85 UNCLASSIFIED

86. Identify Root Causes
Lean Six Sigma
Main Cause I
Main Cause II
If one probable
cause repeats…
Root Cause
C
B
Problem
A
A
Main Cause V
Main Cause IV
Main Cause III
Root Cause
86 UNCLASSIFIED

87. Exercise – Root Cause Analysis
Lean Six Sigma
 Using the simulation, determine what the effect of
interest is then brainstorm causes using the 5 Whys
 Create Cause and Effect Diagram that concentrates
on reducing variation in the Simulation process
10 minutes
87 UNCLASSIFIED

88. XY Matrix
Lean Six Sigma
 XY matrix is used to:
 Identify and subjectively rank "sub-Ys"
 Relate Xs to Ys
 Take the first crack at: Y = f(X)
88 UNCLASSIFIED

89. Why Do We Need an XY Matrix?
Lean Six Sigma
To allow everyone involved with a process to agree on
outputs critical to the product and/or customer
Through numerical ranking, an XY matrix enables your
team to assign a level of importance to each output
variable
Through association, an XY matrix enables a team to
numerically assess the effect of each X on each Y
It provides the team its first stab at determining Y = f(X)
It leads the way to an area of focus on the process
“Failure Modes and Effects Analysis” (FMEA)
89 UNCLASSIFIED

90. How to Create a Useful XY Matrix
Lean Six Sigma
Step 1: Use available information sources like process
maps and fishbones to aid you in your identification of
inputs and outputs.
Step 2: List the output variables (Ys) along the top section
of the matrix. These are outputs that the team and/or
customer deem important. These may be a subset of the
list of Ys identified on the process map.
Step 3: Rank each output numerically using an arbitrary
scale (possibly 1 to 10). The most important output
receives the highest number. Enter these rankings in the
Output Ranking row of the matrix.
90 UNCLASSIFIED

91. How to Create a Useful XY Matrix
Lean Six Sigma
Step 4: Identify all potential inputs or causes (Xs) that can
impact the various Ys and list these along the left side of
the matrix.
Step 5: Numerically rate the effect of each X on each Y
within the body of the matrix.
Step 6: Use the results page to analyze and prioritize
where to focus your effort when creating the preliminary
FMEA. The XY matrix is a great team brainstorming tool. It
can also facilitate future team activities.
91 UNCLASSIFIED

92. BRC Process Map
Lean Six Sigma
Step 1 Use available
N-HHQ Schedule
N-HHQ Fiscal Guidance information sources like
process maps and Fishbones to
aid you in your identification of
inputs and outputs.
VA
BVA
C- Schedule
C-Guidance
NVA
92 UNCLASSIFIED

93. XY Matrix
Lean Six Sigma
Step 2 List the important
XY Matrix
output variables along the top Project:
section of the matrix. Date:
DEMO
1 2 3
Step 3 Rank each output View Results
numerically using an
Variables (Y's)
Justification
Delete
arbitrary scale. A scale of 1
Com plete
M eet Due
Analysis
to 10 is often used.
Output
Effort
Date
Instructions
Step 4 Identify potential
causes (failed Xs) that can Output Ranking 6 9 8
impact various outputs, and list Input Variables
(X's) Association Table Rank % Rank
each one along the left side of
1 Schedule 3 8 9 162 18.71%
the matrix.
2 Training 8 7 1 119 13.74%
Step 5 Numerically rate the
SOP 7 7 1 113 13.05%
effect of each X on each Y 3
Resource
within the body of the matrix. 1 6 1
4 Guidance 68 7.85%
1 5 1
Step 6 Use the resulting ranks to 5 Fiscal Code 59 6.81%
analyze and prioritize future 7 Security Class 6 1 1 53 6.12%
team activities. 8 Manual Process 6 7 5 139 16.05%
93 UNCLASSIFIED

94. In-
In-Class Exercise
Lean Six Sigma
 Break into your groups
 Use your Simulation Round 1 Results
 Use the 6-step methodology to create an XY matrix
(XYMatrix.xls) for the process
 Use the Xs and Ys from your process map as key information
 Be prepared to report your results
10 minutes
94 UNCLASSIFIED

95. FMEA Defined
Lean Six Sigma
 Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is a detailed document
that identifies ways a process or product can fail to meet critical
customer requirements (Ys) (failure modes)
 A living document that lists all possible causes (Xs) of failure
 From this, list of items for the control plan can be generated
 A document that allows the team to track and prioritize the actions
required to improve the process
 FMEA is used to reduce risk, and therefore unintended
consequences, in the implementation.
 In short, a FMEA will:
 Ultimately capture the entire process
 Identify ways the product or process failed because of these Xs
 Facilitate the documentation of a plan to prevent those failures
95 UNCLASSIFIED

96. When to Conduct a FMEA
Lean Six Sigma
 Early in the process design or improvement development.
 When new systems, products, and processes are being
designed.
 When existing designs or processes are being changed.
 When carry-over designs are used in new applications.
 After system, product, or process functions are defined, but
before beginning detailed final design.
 When the design concept has been decided.
96 UNCLASSIFIED

97. Types of FMEA
Lean Six Sigma
 System - Analyzes systems and subsystems in early
concept and design stages
 Design – Analyzes new process, product or service design
before rollout
 Process – Used to improve existing transactional and
operational processes
97 UNCLASSIFIED

98. FMEA Form
Lean Six Sigma
Process or
Prepared by: Page ____ of ____
Product Name:
Responsible: FMEA Date (Orig) ______________ (Rev) _____________
ANALYZE PHASE IMPROVE PHASE
Process O O
Potential Failure Potential Failure D Actions D
Step / S Potential Causes C Current Controls Resp. Actions Taken S C
Mode Effects E Recommended E
Input E C E C
T T
What is the In what ways does What is the impact V What causes the U What are the existing What are the What are the V U
E R E R
process the Key Input go on the Key Output E Key Input to go R controls and actions for completed E R
C P C P
step and wrong? Variables R wrong? R procedures (inspection reducing the actions taken R R
T N T N
Input under (Customer I E and test) that prevent occurrence of the with the I E
I I
investiga- Requirements)? T N either the cause or the cause, or recalculated T N
O O
tion? Y C Failure Mode? improving RPN? Y C
N N
E detection? E
0 0
0 0
98 UNCLASSIFIED

99. Sample FMEA Rating Scale
Lean Six Sigma
LIKELIHOOD OF
RATING DEGREE OF SEVERITY OCCURRENCE ABILITY TO DETECT
1 Customer will not notice Likelihood of occurrence is Sure that the potential
the adverse effect or it is remote failure will be found or
insignificant prevented before reaching
the next customer
2 Customer will probably Low failure rate with Almost certain that the
experience slight supporting documentation potential failure will be
annoyance found or prevented before
reaching the next customer
3 Customer will experience Low failure rate without Low likelihood that the
annoyance due to the supporting documentation potential failure will reach
slight degradation of the next customer
performance undetected
4 Customer dissatisfaction Occasional failures Controls may detect or
due to reduced prevent the potential
performance failure from reaching the
next customer
5 Customer is made Relatively moderate failure Moderate likelihood that
uncomfortable or their rate with supporting the potential failure will
productivity is reduced by documentation reach the next customer
the continued degradation
of the effect
99 UNCLASSIFIED

100. Sample FMEA Rating Scale – Cont
Lean Six Sigma
RATING DEGREE OF SEVERITY LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE ABILITY TO DETECT
6 Warranty repair or significant Moderate failure rate without Controls are unlikely to detect or
manufacturing or assembly complaint supporting documentation prevent the potential failure
from reaching the next customer
7 High degree of customer Relatively high failure rate with Poor likelihood that the
dissatisfaction due to component supporting documentation potential failure will be detected
failure without complete loss of or prevented before reaching
function. Productivity impacted by the next customer
high scrap or rework levels.
8 Very high degree of dissatisfaction High failure rate without Very poor likelihood that the
due to the loss of function without a supporting documentation potential failure will be detected
negative impact on safety or or prevented before reaching
governmental regulations the next customer
9 Customer endangered due to the Failure is almost certain based Current controls probably will
adverse effect on safe system on warranty data or significant not even detect the potential
performance with warning before DV testing failure
failure or violation of governmental
regulations
10 Customer endangered due to the Assured of failure based on Absolute certainty that the
adverse effect on safe system warranty data or significant DV current controls will not detect
performance without warning before testing the potential failure
failure or violation of governmental
regulations
100 UNCLASSIFIED

101. Example: Budget Review FMEA
Lean Six Sigma
Process or Budget Review Prepared by: Susan
Product Name: Committee UFR Wheeler
process
Responsible: Susan Wheeler FMEA Date (Orig) ___1 Oct 2009______ (Rev
O
Process Step / Potential Failure Potential Failure D
S Potential Causes C Current Controls
Input Mode Effects E
E C
T
What is the In what ways What is the impact V What causes the U What are the existing
E
process step does the Key on the Key Output E Key Input to go R controls and
C RPN
and Input Input go wrong? Variables R wrong? R procedures
T
under (Customer I E (inspection and test)
I
investiga-tion? Requirements)? T N that prevent either
O
Y C the cause or the
N
E Failure Mode?
Each activity is
Activity doesn’t
assigned a budget
8 understand 5
ombudsman to
2 80
UFRs can't be instructions
UFRs assist activity
recommended
incomplete
for funding
BRC Panels Low Activity Calendar and email
convened
8 priority to submit 7 reminders; 6 336
quality UFR template for UFRs
UFR not
Panel
reviewed by Functional Expert
Members not
functional
9 TDY or on leave
4 Backup SME 6 216
present
expert
101 UNCLASSIFIED

102. Exercise - FMEA
Lean Six Sigma
 Create a FMEA for one process step of the Simulation
15 minutes
102 UNCLASSIFIED

103. Graphical Tools
Lean Six Sigma
 The primary graphical tools available to help
characterize and learn about the process are:
 Pareto Charts
 Histograms and Dot Plots
 Run Charts / Control Charts / Time Series Plots
 Scatter Plots
 Box Plots
103 UNCLASSIFIED

104. Pareto Chart
Lean Six Sigma
 The Pareto Chart is a bar chart that displays the relative
frequency of factors or causes that contribute to the
problem.
 The Pareto Chart is used to:
 Separate the critical few areas from the trivial many
 Focus and refine the problem statement
 Pareto Effect: 80% of the problem is due to 20% of the
potential causes
TIP: Data collected over a short time period, especially from an unstable
process, can lead to incorrect conclusions. Examine the data for
stratification or changes over time. Ensure that categories (X axis) are
meaningful.
104 UNCLASSIFIED

105. Pareto Chart
Lean Six Sigma
LQA – Living Quarters Allowance PD - Per Diem
TQSA – Temporary Quarters Subsistence Allowance AoP - Advice of Payment
MEA – Miscellaneous Expense Allowance PA - Per Annum
105 UNCLASSIFIED

106. Pareto Charts
Lean Six Sigma
TASK: Create a Pareto Chart using the Defect and Frequency data
 Go to Stat menu > Quality Tools > Pareto Chart
 Click inside the “Chart defects table:” selection box and enter Defects in
Labels and Frequency in Frequency boxes
 Click OK
106 UNCLASSIFIED

107. Pareto Charts
Lean Six Sigma
RESULTS:
To create a Pareto Chart
in EXCEL, summarize the
count of Defects by type,
sort the sums in order of
frequency, highlight the
data and click Insert Chart,
Column. You can create
the percent/cumulative
percent chart separately
and affix underneath the
Column charts.
107 UNCLASSIFIED

108. Correlation
Lean Six Sigma
(Response) (Factor)
 Identify dependency
relationships between two or
more variables (Xs and Y).
Y X
y1 x1
 It is customary to call X the y2 x2
input variable (independent)
and Y the output variable y3 x3
(dependent). y4 x4
y5 x5
y_nth x_nth
108 UNCLASSIFIED

109. Scatter Diagram
Lean Six Sigma
 Good for finding and/or confirming relationships between
measures
 Will not prove that a cause-and-effect relationship
exists
 Can assist in identifying which process inputs impact the
process output
 Add evidence to opinion regarding cause and effect
 Can identify clues for improvement
 Enables teams to test hunches between two factors
 Examples:
 Ice Cream Sales as they relate to outside temperature
 Demand for gasoline as it relates to the price at the pump
109 UNCLASSIFIED

110. Scatter Diagram
Lean Six Sigma
Scatter Diagram for Cycle Time vs Number of Inv.
Skids
12.0
Hours to Perform
10.0
Inventory
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
0 1000 2000 3000 4000
Number of Inventory Skids
110 UNCLASSIFIED

111. Scatter Diagrams Patterns
Lean Six Sigma
(Dependent Variable) X and Y appear to be unrelated Y is more variable as X increases
(Dependent Variable)
Y
Y
X (Independent Variable) X (Independent Variable)
Y Decreases as X Increases Y Increases as X Increases
(negative linear trend) (positive linear trend)
(Dependent Variable)
(Dependent Variable)
Y
Y
X (Independent Variable) X (Independent Variable)
111 UNCLASSIFIED

112. Examples of Variable Relationships
Lean Six Sigma
55 No Relationship Strong Linear
54 60
53
52
51
50
50
49
48
47 40
46
45
46.5 47.5 48.5 49.5 50.5 51.5 52.5 53.5 60 70 80
X1
Strong Non-Linear 55 ModerateXLinear
6.0
54
53
52
5.5
51
50
49
5.0
48
47
46
4.5
45
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55
112 UNCLASSIFIED

113. Abuse & Misuse of Correlation
Lean Six Sigma
 If we establish a correlation between X1 and Y, that does NOT
necessarily mean variation in X1 caused variation in Y
 A third variable that is associated with both X1 and Y may be
“lurking.”
 Relationship could be coincidental
 To conclude that there is a relationship between two variables
does NOT mean that there is a cause and effect relationship.
Correlation Does NOT Determine Causation!
A study conducted in New York indicated there was a proportional
rise in ice cream sales and murder rates during summer months.
Correlation or coincidence?
113 UNCLASSIFIED

114. Scatter Plots
Lean Six Sigma
Definition: Shows relationships between numerical variables
(NOT non-numeric variables!)
 To create scatter plots we need to
related numerical variables. Therefore
we need to add the Variation data for
Teams 2 and 3:
 Go to the worksheet and click on the
first cell of column C8 (T2-Variation)
 Input the data as shown in the picture
to the right
 Do the same for column C11
(T3-Variation)
114 UNCLASSIFIED

115. Scatter Plots
Lean Six Sigma
TASK: Create a graph showing the relationship between the Distance and the Variation
for Statapult Teams 2 and 3:
• Go to Graph menu > Scatterplot
• Select Simple
• Select X and Y variables
• Click on Multiple Graphs
115 UNCLASSIFIED

116. Scatter Plots
(Cont...) Six Sigma
Lean
 Select Overlaid on the same RESULTS:
graph
Scatterplot of T2-Variation vs T2-Distance, T3-Variation vs T3-Distanc
Variable
6
T2-Variation * T2-Distance
T3-Variation * T3-Distance
5
4
Y-Data
3
2
1
0
20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
X-Data
116 UNCLASSIFIED

117. Scatter Plots
Lean Six Sigma
 To create the Scatter Plot in EXCEL, highlight the X then Y
variables for the first team and click Insert Chart, Scatter Plot.
Repeat for the second team. Adjust the X and Y matrix scales to
match the larger dimensions.
T2-Variation T-3 Variation
7.00 7.00
6.00 6.00
5.00 5.00
4.00 4.00
3.00 T2-Variation 3.00 T-3 Variation
2.00 2.00
1.00 1.00
0.00 0.00
-10 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 0 50 100 150
117 UNCLASSIFIED

118. Boxplot Distribution
Lean Six Sigma
Maximum Length
Interquartile Range
75th Percentile
Middle
50% of 50th Percentile (Median)
Data
25th Percentile
Outliers
118 UNCLASSIFIED

119. Boxplots
Lean Six Sigma
Definition: Box plots summarize data in percentages (%) using the
Median (not the Mean!)
*
50 *
Outliers
Top wisker (76 - 100%)
Top whisker (76-100%)
40
Third quartile
Top box (51 - 75%)
30
Median
20 Bottom box (26 - 50%)
First quartile
10
Bottom whisker (0 - 25%)
0
Series
119 UNCLASSIFIED

120. Boxplots
Lean Six Sigma
TASK: Make Box Plots of T1-Distance, T2-Distance, T3-Distance,
T4-Distance, and T5-Distance:
 Go to Graph menu > Boxplot
 Select Multiple Ys Simple > Click OK
 Click in the Variables box and select T1-Distance, T2-Distance,T3-
Distance, T4-Distance, and T5-Distance
 Click OK twice
120 UNCLASSIFIED

121. Boxplots
Lean Six Sigma
RESULTS:
EXCEL does not have a
Boxplot template – but it
can be created, although
the process is far more
cumbersome. Instructions
and a sample are provided
in the OSD LSSTools
section of the DEPMS
Sandbox work tree.
121 UNCLASSIFIED