Branchout 2017 - Day 2 Session - Toby Roessingh
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The Evolution of Consumer Behaviors and Mobile Measurement By Toby Roessingh, Measurement Partnerships Program Manager at Facebook Toby Roessingh, Measurement Partnerships Program Manager at Facebook, takes us through a deep dive of the evolving mobile media landscape and its implications for measurement, only on the Branchout stage.
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Branchout 2017 - Day 2 Session - Toby Roessingh
- 1. @facebook Evolution of Consumer Behaviors and Mobile Measurement Toby Roessingh Measurement Partnerships Program Manager
- 2. 2 There are now more mobile devices than people in the world The mobile shift has officially happened 3+ predicted devices per consumer by 20182 7.9Bglobal mobile devices and connections1 Sources: 1. “Cisco Visual Networking Index: Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update, 2015–2020 White Paper” by Cisco, Feb 2016. 2. “Gartner Says Consumers in Mature Markets Will Use and Own Three to Four Devices by 2018” by Gartner, Dec 2015.
- 5. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Percentage of Facebook ad revenue from mobile
- 7. Source: Facebook data, Q3 2015 7 People absorb content faster on mobile
- 8. Sources: 1. “Cisco Visual Networking Index: Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update, 2015–2020” by Cisco, Feb 3, 2016. 2. Facebook data, Dec 2015. Of all mobile data traffic will be video by 2020, compared to over half now1 75% And 100,000,000 hours of video are watched on Facebook daily2 100m hours Mobile means video
- 9. Implications
- 10. People consume media more quickly. But they sometimes act on it more slowly and less directly.
- 12. • Risk losing place in feed ‘I continue scrolling through my FB newsfeed until I’ve run out of good stories and then download the app’ • Take a mental note ‘I try to remember to download the app for later’ • Fear of fraud Afraid to click, insecurity about the link • Data consumption Download later on Wifi because of data speed & consumption (take a screenshot to remember) Qualitative analysis – why don’t consumers respond directly?
- 14. We’ve seen that digital campaigns drive offline conversions Source: Facebook internal data, all campaigns measured using Facebook Offline Conversion Lift measurement system (21 campaigns in total, US Retail vertical, Q1-Q4 2014), 38% calculated based on weighted average percentage of incremental sales that came from in-store for campaigns that had an call to action driving to the retailers website; 95% calculated based on weighted average percentage of incremental sales that came from in-store for campaigns that had calls to action driving to the retailers store. 38% of incremental sales from campaigns with website call-to-actions came from in-store 95% of incremental sales from campaigns with store call-to-actions came from in-store
- 15. Themes for 2018
- 16. • Today, many advertisers have independent stacks for web and apps. • We don’t connect much of it with anything ‘offline’. • We assume that responses will be direct and involve a click. Publishers, advertisers, and vendors will continue to try to stitch it all together. Cross-device measurement
- 17. • Everything is becoming addressable • New POS systems capture more information from consumers • More media (ie. radio and TV) becomes on-demand / individualized / addressable • Platform definitions are starting to break down • Is Netflix TV or the internet? • Is an in-app browser on the web or part of an app? • Advertisers want single, comprehensive sources of truth. The walls between channels will start to come down. More comprehensive
- 18. • *Assuming* we get all the data together. • More than counting will be required. • Today, sophisticated methods are mostly operationally burdensome and untested. Better methods will take time, but they’re coming. Innovation in methods
- 20. Conversion Lift
- 21. @facebook #branchout17 Questions Submit your questions via sli.do Enter code Branchout2017
Notas do Editor
- Today, we're going to talk about changes in consumer behavior and the media landscape, and how they should change your advertising measurement practices.
- In developed markets, this is primarily device diversification. People are adding mobile devices to the list of ways they connect with people and businesses. It's projected that the average person will have 3 ways to connect to the internet by 2018 (which is right now). There will be more devices than people in the world.
- In developing markets, there is more of a leapfrog effect. Absent broad access to older technologies, consumers are readily adopting mobile devices as their primary means of communication. In India, 70% of consumers are mobile only.
- This manifests to publishers and media companies as changes to consumption patterns.
- Less than 4 years ago, Facebook was entirely a computer-based platform. But of course, where consumers go is where advertisers have to go. 88% of ad revenue now stems from ads on mobile devices, up from 30% just four years ago.
- As consumers shift to mobile devices, they are presented with more immersive experiences. Here's my desktop News Feed. There's a lot going here - some games, some chat windows, a list of groups, a list of available contacts. Here's the same thing in our mobile app. There's a lot less going on. So when I look at this, there's less to be distracted by and I'm more attentive. This isn't just true for Facebook - you get distracted from our computer, you get distracted by your phone. So I'm more 'in it' on mobile.
- And because I'm more attentive, I consume media more quickly. On desktop, it takes 2.5 seconds to absorb a piece of content. On mobile, it's 30% less.
- Further, video is a dominant form of consumption on mobile. By 2020, it's expected that 75% of all mobile traffic will be in video. People watch more than 100m hours of video on Facebook every day and that's not the only place they watch video.
- So what are the implications? People consume media quickly, but they act on it more slowly and less directly.
- There's still some of this <click-through conversion rate>, which is very direct.
- But from our research, we know this isn't the whole story. People don't respond right away for a variety of reasons - They're busy doing something else. They're 'immersed'. They don't know what they're going to get when they click. 'Does this really take me to the app store?' They want to control the experience themselves. They want to do it at their convenience. Maybe that's at home, maybe it's on a different device.
- So there's also some of this <view-through conversion rate>.
- So there's this direct effect and then there's a indirect effect, which is hard to track. Over 21 campaigns for US retailers, we observe that even when there's a call-to-action on the web, almost 40% of the effect happens offline.
- Today, advertisers largely have independent stacks for web and apps. And they don't connect either with anything 'offline'. But that's not consistent with consumption patterns. We're making the assumption that people respond to digital ads by clicking. Sometimes they do. But you would err to think that's the only way they respond. When was the last time you clicked on a billboard or the radio? Do those not work at all? So a theme for 2018 is that publishers, advertisers, and vendors will continue to try to stitch these all together.
- Related, we'll all try to make measurement more comprehensive. Again, today everyone has all these disparate channel-specific systems. No one wants that. I want to see display and search and email and mass media in the same tool with the same metrics. We won't get there overnight, but expect some channel amalgamation.
- Third, once the data is together, we're going to have to get employ more sophisticated methodology to decide what's good.
- Remember this? If we want to capture this effect, we're going to need to do more than a counting exercise. We're going to have to take into account baseline rates and assign fractional credit. I'm not going to stand here and tell you exactly how to do that. We're still figuring it out too. But I will suggest that you try new things - and be smart about it. At least for Facebook, I would also recommend that you validate whether it's working or not. We allow advertisers to run science experiments - real randomized control trials - so you can make a good assessment of whether your every day observational measurement systems are accurately capturing what happens.
- At least for Facebook, I would also recommend that you validate whether it's working or not. We allow advertisers to run science experiments - real randomized control trials - so you can make a good assessment of whether your every day observational measurement systems are accurately capturing what happens.