The document outlines Brad Stenger's 5-minute lightning talk on doing things that have never been done before. He discusses two formulas - compound probability and expected value - that are relevant for assessing new projects. He then applies these formulas to assessing complexity, difficulty, and risk in general projects, as well as the interdependencies of elements in internet and journalism projects. The talk concludes that thorough preparation and awareness of existing solutions can help minimize risks and maximize opportunities when attempting novel projects.

1. IRE 2010 Lightning Talk
Doing Things That Haven't Ever Been Done Before
Believe it or not there's a formula. Two formulas actually,
but they're both pretty simple, and together they're about
right for a five minute presentation. Make no mistake
though, doing something that has never been done before
is hard. Truly, if it was easy it would already be done.
Brad Stenger
June 10, 2010

2. IRE 2010 Lightning Talk
Doing Things That Haven't Ever Been Done Before
30 seconds … intro
60 seconds … formulas, two of them
90 seconds … applying the formulas in general
90 seconds … applying the formulas to journalism
30 seconds … summary

3. IRE 2010 Lightning Talk
Doing Things That Haven't Ever Been Done Before
30 seconds … intro
60 seconds … formulas, two of them
Compound Probability
p(A and B and C and … ) = p(A) * p(B) * p(C) ...
Expected Value
E(X) =  x*p(x)

4. IRE 2010 Lightning Talk
Doing Things That Haven't Ever Been Done Before
30 seconds … intro
60 seconds … formulas, two of them
p(ABC) = p(A) * p(B) * p(C), E(X) =  x*p(x)
90 seconds … applying the formulas in general
Complexity & Difficulty
Singles & Homeruns
Process & Product

5. IRE 2010 Lightning Talk
Doing Things That Haven't Ever Been Done Before
30 seconds … intro
60 seconds … formulas, two of them
p(ABC) = p(A) * p(B) * p(C), E(X) =  x*p(x)
90 seconds … applying the formulas in general
Complexity & Difficulty, Process & Product
90 seconds … applying the formulas to journalism
Internet = Interdependencies
Content + Biz Model + Info Service + Interface

6. IRE 2010 Lightning Talk
Doing Things That Haven't Ever Been Done Before
30 seconds … intro
60 seconds … formulas, two of them
p(ABC) = p(A) * p(B) * p(C), E(X) =  x*p(x)
90 seconds … applying the formulas in general
Complexity & Difficulty, Process & Product
90 seconds … applying the formulas to journalism
Content + Biz Model + Info Service + Interface
30 seconds … summary
Decision-making
Preparation Minimizes Risk
Awareness Maximizes Opportunity

7. IRE 2010 Lightning Talk
Doing Things That Haven't Ever Been Done Before
Believe it or not there's a formula. Two formulas actually,
but they're both pretty simple, and together they're about
right for a five minute presentation. Make no mistake
though, doing something that has never been done before
is hard. Truly, if it was easy it would already be done.
Brad Stenger
June 10, 2010
1

8. IRE 2010 Lightning Talk
Doing Things That Haven't Ever Been Done Before
30 seconds … intro
60 seconds … formulas, two of them
90 seconds … applying the formulas in general
90 seconds … applying the formulas to journalism
30 seconds … summary
2
I will be enrolling in the MSJ program at Medill in June,
2010. Before working in Journalism, I worked in
university technology transfer and have been
assessing new technologies for 10+ years. Visit
bradstenger.com if you're interested in seeing my
complete bona fides.

9. IRE 2010 Lightning Talk
Doing Things That Haven't Ever Been Done Before
30 seconds … intro
60 seconds … formulas, two of them
Compound Probability
p(A and B and C and … ) = p(A) * p(B) * p(C) ...
Expected Value
E(X) =  x*p(x)
3
In general, probabilities multiply. With each additional
first-of-its-kind element in a first-of-its-kind project,
the probability of overall project success takes a hit.
Every situation is different. But again in general,
something that's never been done before and has a
low probability of success better have
commensurately high potential value.
It's also wise to limit your downside, the negative
expected value of undesirable, but still possible
outcomes.
Probability => What's Possible => Expected Value =>
What's Valuable

10. IRE 2010 Lightning Talk
Doing Things That Haven't Ever Been Done Before
30 seconds … intro
60 seconds … formulas, two of them
p(ABC) = p(A) * p(B) * p(C), E(X) =  x*p(x)
90 seconds … applying the formulas in general
Complexity & Difficulty
Singles & Homeruns
Process & Product
4
Complexity: something with lots of project elements,
each of them with a probability and potential value
Difficulty: factors which negatively affect probability for
success
Singles: attempting new things that have reasonably
high probability of success, but relatively low value
Homeruns: a new thing with high potential value, but
relatively low probability
Process: I'd like to think it's as simple as great
products come from great processes, but I suspect
it's not that simple, b/c process is rarely simple.
Keywords I listen for – transparency, lowest common
denominator, invention.

11. IRE 2010 Lightning Talk
Doing Things That Haven't Ever Been Done Before
30 seconds … intro
60 seconds … formulas, two of them
p(ABC) = p(A) * p(B) * p(C), E(X) =  x*p(x)
90 seconds … applying the formulas in general
Complexity & Difficulty, Process & Product
90 seconds … applying the formulas to journalism
Internet = Interdependencies
Content + Biz Model + Info Service + Interface
5
Everything built for the Internet is beset by some
unavoidable interdependencies.
Content, Business Model, Information Services, and
Interface Design all represent opportunities to either
positively or negatively differentiate a new Net thing.
Plug all of a journalism project's elements in each
dimension into to the Compound Probability formula
and success is inevitably a challenge.
Help to reduce risk comes in the form of frameworks,
agile practices, APIs, strong design fundamentals,
continuous improvement.
The tension is to seek challenges but not overdo it.
Limit downside of failures with the value in learning
from them. Remember though, if you're not failing
you're not really trying.

12. IRE 2010 Lightning Talk
Doing Things That Haven't Ever Been Done Before
30 seconds … intro
60 seconds … formulas, two of them
p(ABC) = p(A) * p(B) * p(C), E(X) =  x*p(x)
90 seconds … applying the formulas in general
Complexity & Difficulty, Process & Product
90 seconds … applying the formulas to journalism
Content + Biz Model + Info Service + Interface
30 seconds … summary
Decision-making
Preparation Minimizes Risk
Awareness Maximizes Opportunity
6
At some level it comes down to decision-making. ...
It helps to know what you're dealing with. Preparation,
as in knowing technical and design details, makes it
more likely that bad decisions can be ruled out more
quickly.
The answers to most questions are out in the world,
and not necessarily in your head. Awareness, as in
knowing or learning where solutions already exist,
solutions that can turn unknowns into knowns, it
saves time/money/effort.
One big thing to remain aware of, especially for the
Internet, is how something scales up.
Base decisions on guesses instead of evidence, and
success depends on luck.