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Public Affairs - 2018 Elections | August

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After opening of electoral race, our traditional Monthly Newsletter is in a new format. Regular reports about this year's elections will be produced, with quantitative and qualitative information.

In this first edition, we present an overview of main data provided by the Superior Electoral Court and surveys conducted by our monitoring team. And seeking a complete view, we include data of candidacies in the States, such as Bahia, Pará, Minas Gerais and São Paulo.

Always in quest of providing useful information, we wish everyone an election period with many debates!

Publicada em: Notícias e política
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Public Affairs - 2018 Elections | August

  2. 2. 2018ELECTIONS An intersecting agency that, through the understanding of the political environment, assists clients of different sectors in the protection and/or promotion of their businesses, managing their influence in a sustainable way. The Burson-Marsteller standard is responsible for the development of highly customized projects, according to the needs of each client, developing strategies for various economic sectors, especially those heavily regulated by the government. S U M M A R Y 02 ELECTORAL TIMELINE 13 NATIONAL CONGRESS 03 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES 14 HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES 07 ELECTORAL POLLS 15 FEDERAL SENATE 08 STATE EXECUTIVE ELECTIONS CONTRIBUTORS TO THIS EDITION Anna Paula Losi Andressa Mont'Alvão Camila Lisdalia Fernanda Xavier Isabela Girotto Leonardo Brito Luciana Lemgruber Mikael Victor Renata DÁguiar BURSON-MARSTELLER | PUBLIC AFFAIRS
  3. 3. 2018ELECTIONS E L E C T O R A L T I M E L I N E 28-30th, August Concentrated effort in the Federal Senate 4-5th, September Concentrated effort in the House of Representatives 11-13th, September Concentrated effort in the Federal Senate 31th, August Start of government-paid electoral propaganda on radio and TV 17th, September Electoral Justice's deadline to rule on candidate's registration submissions 22th, September From this point foward, no candidate may be arrested or detained unless if caught in the act of commiting an offence 4th, October End of government-paid electoral propaganda on radio and TV 6th, October Deadline for graphic material distribution, as well as to hold rallies, marchs and walks 7th, October FIRST ROUND 28th, October SECOND ROUND 02
  4. 4. P R E S I D E N T I A L C A N D I D AT E S 2018ELECTIONS Former Governor of the Paraná state, Dias was first elected at the age of 23 as councilman of the city of Londrina. Since then, he has hold office in Paraná's Legislative Assembly, in the House of Representatives and the Federal Senate, where he's been since 1998. Álvaro Dias (Podemos) Vice: Paulo Rabello de Castro (PSC) Coalition: Podemos, PSC,  PRP and PTC Ciro Gomes (PDT) Former Governor of the Ceará state, Ciro Gomes has already run for President in 1998 and 2002. He has been a member of 7 political parties in his career and has hold many offices in the Executive and Legislative branches. A leftist candidate, he is known for a strong temperament and has not been mentioned in any corruption investigation. Vice: Kátia Abreu (PDT) Coalition:  PDT, Avante Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) One of the PSDB (Brazilian Social Democracy Party) founders and a doctor by training, Alckmin is running for President for the second time (he lost, in 2006, to Lula, then candidate for reelection). The former Governor of São Paulo state has held that office for four terms and  is currently the candidate with the largest coalition: constitued by 9 parties. Vice: Ana Amélia (PP/RS) Coalition:  PSDB, PP, PR, DEM, PRB, SD, PSD, PTB, PPS R$ 22.969,00 R$ 60.306,00 R$ 43.575,00 Each candidate's crowdfunding until this edition's final cut. Source: Candidate's official websites/G1 03
  5. 5. P R E S I D E N T I A L C A N D I D AT E S 2018ELECTIONS Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) One of the Left's biggest newcomers and considered to be a political successor to former President Lula, Guilherme Boulos is a leader in one of Brazil's most important social movements, the Homeless Workers Movement (MTST). A philosopher and psychanalyst, Boulos has become an important interlocutor between homeless families and government. Vice: Sonia Guajajara (PSOL) Coalition:  PSOL Henrique Meirelles (MDB) A former minister of the Economy at the Temer's Administration and president of the Central Bank at Lula's, Meirelles has had a long career as an executive of the Brazilian and international financial sectors, when he was Bank of Boston’s worldwide President. He has been a member of three parties and had run for representative in 2002, when he was elected as the most voted candidate of his state. Vice: Germano Rigotto (MDB) Coalition:  MDB Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) Alternating the frontrunner position in the polls with former President Lula, Bolsonaro is one of the most controversial candidates in the race. A federal representative for a quarter of century, he was the most voted among Rio de Janeiro state's representatives in 2014. Retired from the military, liberal in the economy and conservative in social themes, Bolsonaro is well known for his simplistic positions on many issues. Vice: Hamilton Mourão (PRTB) Coalition:  PSL, PRTB R$ 8.500,00 Each candidate's crowdfunding until this edition's final cut. Source: Candidate's official websites/G1 04 Not available Not available
  6. 6. P R E S I D E N T I A L C A N D I D AT E S 2018ELECTIONS Lula (PT) Two-term former president, from 2003 to 2010, and a Workers' Party (PT) founder, Lula is the first presidential candidate to ever be arrested. Due to this and the effects of the Ficha Limpa (Clean Record) Law, his candidacy is likely to be disputed in the Electoral Justice. Vice: Fernand Haddad (PT) Coalition:  PT, PCdoB, PROS Marina Silva (REDE) Running for the third time, Marina Silva was once a Minister of the Enviroment at Lula's Administration, as well as a Senator for the Acre state. She was a member of Lula's PT throughout her early years in politics, and subsequently founded her own party, the "Rede Sustentabilidade" (literally, Sustainability Network).  Vice: Eduardo Jorge (PV) Coalition:  REDE, PV R$ 617.588,91 R$ 224.685,00 Each candidate's crowdfunding until this edition's final cut. Source: Candidate's official websites/G1 05
  7. 7. P R E S I D E N T I A L C A N D I D AT E S 2018ELECITONS João Goulart Filho (PPL) C a b o D a c i o l o ( P a t r i o t a ) João Amoêdo (NOVO) Vice: Suelene Balduino (Patriota) Vice: Helvio Costa (DC) Vice: Christian Lohbauer (NOVO) Vice: Léo Alves (PPL) J o s é M a r i a E y m a e l ( D C ) R$ 3.590,00 Not available R$ 351.709,00 R$ 2.800,00 Vice: Hertz Dias (PSTU) Vera Lúcia (PSTU) R$ 1.315,00 Each candidate's crowdfunding until this edition's final cut. Source: Candidate's official websites/G1 06
  8. 8. 2018ELECTIONS E L E C T O R A L P O L L S Lula Bolsonaro Marina Ciro Alckmin Álvaro Others Blank/Stray/Undecided Votes 37% 18% 6% 5% 5% 3% 4% 22% 0 10 20 30 40 Voting intentions Source:IBOPE-20/08 Scenario with former president Lula's candidacy (stimulated polling) Bolsonaro Marina Ciro Alckmin Haddad Álvaro Others Blank/Stray/Undecided Votes 20% 12% 9% 7% 4% 3% 7% 38% 0 10 20 30 40 Voting Intentions Source:IBOPE-20/08 Scenario without former president Lula's candidacy (stimulated polling) 07
  9. 9. 2018ELECTIONS S TAT E E X E C U T I V E E L E C T I O N S Governors running for reelection Governors not running for reelection In the race for the Governor's offices in state executive elections, 18 out of 27 current governors are running for reelection. Source:TSE 08
  10. 10. S TAT E E L E C T I O N S 2018ELECTIONS Rui Costa (PT) Current governor and economist by training, Rui Costa participated in the foundation of his current party in Bahia, the Workers' Party (PT). He was president of the Sindiquímica union and began his political life in the year 2000. He has held the positions of councilman, state secretary and federal representative. He is endorsed by former governor Jaques Wagner (PT) and current president of Bahia's Legislative Assembly, Ângelo Coronel (PSD), both candidates to the Federal Senate. In these elections, the candidate will be supported by PP, PDT, PSD, PSB, PCdoB, PR, PMB, PRP, PODE, AVANTE, PMN, PROS and PTC. Vice: João Leão (PP) Bahia José Ronaldo (DEM) A four terms Mayor of Feira de Santana, Ronaldo is running for governor for the first time. His political career began in 1976, in Feira de Santana's City Council, but he later was elected as state and federal representative. A member of the Democrats party, he forms the main opposition to Bahia's current government. Endorsed by the mayor of Salvador (Bahia's main and capital city), ACM Neto (PSDB), José Ronaldo will also be supported by the following parties: PSDB, PSC, PTB, PRB, SD, PV and PPL. Vice: Mônica Bahia (PSDB) 09
  11. 11. S TAT E E L E C T I O N S 2018ELECTIONS Helder Barbalho (MDB) Former Minister of Fisheries and Aquaculture and former National Secretary of Ports in the Dilma Government, and the former Minister of Integration of the Temer Government. The current president of his party, Helder Barbalho holds a bachelor's degree in administration and a postgraduate degree in public management. The parties PP, PSD, PRB, PR, PTC, PSC, PROS, PTB, PATRI, PODE, DC, AVANTE, PMB, PSL, PHS and PRTB declared support to the candidate.  Vice:  Deputado Federal Lúcio Vale (PR) Pará Márcio Miranda (DEM) Supported by the current governor Simão Jatene (PSDB), he holds the position of president of the Legislative Assembly of Pará (ALEPA) for the third consecutive time. Graduated in Medicine, his coligation is formed by the PSDB, PSB, PDT, PMN, Solidariedade and PRP. The Democrat is in his fifth term as state representative and has been affiliated to the PSDB and PDT. Vice: José Megale (PSDB) Paulo Rocha (PT) Responsible for founding Workers' Party (PT) and Single Workers' Union (CUT) in Pará, the PT candidate was elected senator in 2014. He also was for five mandates in House of Representative, where he served as leader of his party. In addition to the PT and PCdoB, no other party has declared support for their candidacy. Vice: Sandra Batista (PCdoB) 10
  12. 12. S TAT E E L E C T I O N S 2018ELECTIONS Fernando Pimentel (PT) Governor of Minas Gerais, economist and master in Political Science, was one of the founders of his party in the Sate. He began his political career in the 1990s and held prominent positions, such as Mayor of Belo Horizonte and Head of the Ministry of Industry, Foreign Trade and Services (MDIC) under the Rousseff government. The Christian Democrats (DC), PCdoB and PR parties support the candidate.   Vice: Jô Moraes (PCdoB) Minas Gerais Antonio Anastasia (PSDB) Currently a Senator, he was Minas Gerais’s Governor until 2014, when he assumed the position in Federal Senate. His candidature is supported by PSD, SD, PTB, PPS, PMN, PSC, DEM, PP, PTC, PATRI and PMB. It’s noteworthy that the DEM pre-candidate to the Minas Gerais government, Rodrigo Pacheco, has gave up his candidacy to support the Senator Anastasia in disputing the Palácio da Liberdade. Vice: Marcos Montes (PSD) 11
  13. 13. S TAT E E L E C T I O N S 2018ELECTIONS João Doria (PSDB) Former mayor of the city of São Paulo, João Doria (PSDB), is endorsed by former governor Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) and is supported by the coalition "Acelera São Paulo", constituted by parties such as the Democrats, PSD, PRB, PP and PTC. Before being mayor, the entrepreneur had never occupied other elected offices and this is the first time that he runs for governor of São Paulo. Vice: Deputado Federal Rodrigo Garcia (DEM) São Paulo Paulo Skaf (MDB) Licensed president of Fiesp (the Federation of Industries of the State of São Paulo, a employers' association), this is Skaf's third time running for governor of São Paulo. Throughout his career, he has always been linked to the industry sector and in these elections, Skaf has launched a candidacy without sponsors or alliances. However, it should be noted that the entrepreneur has been standing out in the polls. Vice:Tenente Coronel Carla Danielle Basson (MDB) Márcio França (PSB) Running for reelection, the lawyer and current governor of São Paulo, Márcio França began his political career in the 1980s. In 2015, he left the House of Representative to be São Paulo's vice- governor and, this year, he took the Governor's office after Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) resigned to run for the presidency. Márcio França will not be supported by Alckmin's PSDB, but he is endorsed by the following parties: PSC, PPS, PTB, PV, PR, POW, PMB, PHS, PPL, PATRI, PROS, SD, and AVANTE. Vice: Coronel Eliane Nikoluk (PTB) 12
  14. 14. 2018ELECTIONS N AT I O N A L C O N G R E S S AVANTE 349 PRB 251 PSOL 526 DC 6 PHS 2 PROS 3 PSTU 22 Câmara dos Deputados (50%) Senado Federal (50%) AVANTE 349 DC 237 DEM 159 MDB  328 NOVO 228 PATRI 335 PCdoB 125 PCB 36 PCO 30 PDT 274 PHS 317 PMB 107 PMN 182 PODE 230 PP 146 PPL 253 PPS 131 PR 162 PRB 251 PROS 271 PRP 273 PRTB 323 PSB 258 PSC 183 PSD 204 PSDB 246 PSL 465 PSOL 526 PSTU 38 PTB 139 PTC 197 PV 277 REDE 249 SD 159 AVANTE 2 DEM 9 DC 6 MDB  24 NOVO 6 PATRI 5 PCdoB 5 PCB 10 PCO 12 PDT 8 PHS 2 PMB 4 PMN 4 PODE 6 PP 10 PPL 7 PPS 6 PR 8 PRB 8 PROS 3 PRP 4 PRTB 8 PSB 10 PSC 6 PSD 6 PSDB 22 PSL 19 PSOL 34 PSTU 22 PT 25 PTB 6 PTC 4 PV 4 REDE 21 SD 5 PT 383 There are 35 political parties currently registered in the Superior Electoral Court. Of these, three are newcomers to the federal disputes: the Novo Party (NOVO), the Rede Sustentabilidade (Rede) and the Brazilian Women's Party (PMB). Another recent change in relation to the last elections is the name and acronym of some veteran parties. The Christian Social Democratic Party (PSDC), for example, has become "Christian Democracy" (DC). The National Ecological Party (PEN) came to be called "Patriota" (PATRI) and the Progressive Party (PP), became "Progressives", maintaining the acronym PP. The Labor Party of Brazil (PTdoB) is now called "Avante". The following is the number of candidates per party: 13 House of Representatives Federal Senate
  15. 15. 2018ELECTIONS H O U S E O F R E P R E S E N TAT I V E Current Federal Representatives' Candidacies State Representative (1.36%) Federal Senate (8.58%) President (0.39%) None (6.24%) Governor (1.36%) Reelection (80.12%) Vice-Governor (1.95%) 7 44 2 32 7 411 10 Defined by Complementary Law, the House of Representatives cannot exceed 513 members, which must be divided proportionally to the population of each state. Since 1993, the House of Representatives has been composed of exactly 513 representatives, based on a mathematical definition made by IBGE (Brazil's Institute for Statistics and Geography). For this electoral contest, 8,071 applications were registered in the race for the House of Representatives' seats. Of the 513 House members currently holding a seat, the vast majority will seek re-election. The second most targeted position for current representatives is a seat in the Federal Senate, followed by parliamentarians who are leaving public life. 14
  16. 16. F E D E R A L S E N AT E 2018ELECTIONS Senators at the end of their current term: 54 Reelection (53.70%) Federal representative (5.56%) State representative (5.56%) Vice-president (1.85%) None (33.33%) 29 3 3 118 Governor (44.44%) Vice-president (3.70%) None (48.15%) President (3.70%) 12 1 13 1 A senators' term in Brazil lasts for eight years, but there are elections held for the Federal Senate seats every four years. Thus, at each election, Brazilians elect, alternately, one-third and two-thirds of the Senate's 81 seats. In 2018, 2/3 of the Higher House seats will be disputed. Of the 81 senators, 29 will run for reelection and 21 for other elective positions. 15 Senators at the middle of their current term: 27